BamaDoc

Re backup CF. I still keep Leury on the team. He made 1 million this year so I don't think he gets to big of a raise via arbitration. His multi positional versatility has me keep him for another year or two. Gotta teach him to have a better two strike approach or something to drop ks given his lack of power. I might stick an outfielder glove on Mendick in spring training or send him to a winter league. If I remember, Yolmer hurt his arm trying that so probably don't revisit if he is on the team (more expensive than Leury, no SS or CF ability). Gardner made 7.5 this year so I think he is affordable.

With all the Yankees injuries, he has played center and has overall positive defensive ratings. Foot/back injuries scare me on outfielders. I don't want to miss on free agents as we currently don't have the depth to overcome. I consider him almost contingent on Grandal. If you have Grandal's bat higher in lineup, Gardner could be in that 6-8 range. If you don't get Grandal, you may have to gamble on more of an impact bat. I encourage people to look at Gardner's numbers https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gardnbr01.shtml. He has been a lot more solid than I thought and I think his playoff experience, leadership, mentoring would also fit on our team. Shoulders/backs scare me on pitchers which makes Wood less attractive unless really cheap.

I totally respect your opinions. Could you clarify $10 a year for two years? I don't understand to whom you are referring. It is also why I really think Gardner makes sense. So consistent, good OBP, glove and LH. His only knock is age but he is 4.1 WAR this year. I think age makes him cheaper and shorter contract (2?) which fits perfectly for one of our guys in minors to develop and take over. In two years that would also free up money to reallocate.

"This makes it sound like you're asking what we trade for him." Sorry my wording was bad. I meant what contract would you offer him and again it may create two bad defenders in the outfield. I don't mind Moose as DH, in my "Realistic Plan" thread I took Grandal over Moose and would use Grandal as DH/1B on non catching days. If Collins is going to play he will have to earn it and could as I think there are bats there for all. If McCann hits like he has in the second half, he won't be wanted for DH at bats. Again I was being realistic in that we have limits in spending and I spent on C/DH, 2 SP, and a RF option I feel is a lot better than most (Gardner). I agree with you we need LH bats which is what I added. Moose at 12 million easy isn't a bench player and likely doesn't want to be primarily a DH. Kendrick made 4 million. His WAR 2.9 vs 2.2 Yolmer. Would he take being a bench bat?

What would you give for him? He is negatively rated for defense and has not played right field and has a broken foot?

Here is a link. Warning it is not particularly pretty http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=cws&y=2019

What kind of deal will he require? He is at a career high in innings at 195. WHIP 1.259 getting to pitch to pitchers. 29 years old and missed two years to injury. This is my definition of a guy with warts/risk. If I lose that pick, I want some degree of longevity but with his history that is a scary prospect to commit.

Lemahieu now 0-2 .328 Anderson 0-2 .335

Because so many of our guys got injured, we don't have the prospect depth to be making major trades. I also don't think it is wise this year to sign free agents who have qualifying offers attached. You lose your second round pick and the money associated with it. This year it would cost us Thompson our #14 prospect. With player graduations it would probably cost us a prospect who might be about #10. Aside from Cole all the other pitchers offer risk I don't want to deal with.

Technically Maddons contract expires and they part ways

Hurdle and Maddon fired.

It is why I didn't add Moose. It is why I didn't sacrifice major prospects.

I agree his payroll numbers are low but I don't mind the idea. It is much of what I suggested and adds in Moustakas instead of Yolmer. You may lose the bat of Abreu or Moustakas if you want to use Grandal at DH on some of his off days. Struggling to decide which good bat to use would be a welcome change! I really spent a lot of time looking at RF options and people really need to go look at how solid Gardner has been. That amount of time in NY and you've never heard a bad word about the guy.

I looked at WAR on fan graphs and baseball reference. Last 4 years Grandal 19.8 fg, 10.7 br total 30.5 JD 15.2fg, 15.7 br total 30.9 I don't know the difference in the sites formulas but they are very close when combined. I think either would be fine but Grandal fits our team better. Aside from McCanns first half, McCann has not been great and Grandal would be a huge upgrade. You should(we didn't) be able to get production from DH.

With my plan there are no contracts beyond three years. It maintains all our flexibility while we see how the later prospects develop. Grandal is the only higher dollar guy. He turned down 4-60 so I don't think 15 a year will do it especially when other teams will be in the mix. It is why I front load the deal(24/20/16) to make it more appealing to him, put teams with tighter payrolls at a disadvantage, and make him cheaper as he ages and performance might decline. Having a solid defensive catcher is important for our young starters. Last 4 yrs OPS .816,.767, .815, .843. Total WAR 4 yrs 11.5 (Castellanos 4 yr WAR 6.3)(Gardner 4 yr WAR 15.2!) Gloves mater, a run prevented is as good as a run scored. Yolmer is not a star and his WAR has gone from 3.5>2.6>2.2 while he got more expensive, 4.6 million this year. Yet, only six guys had more WAR on this team. He would become a backup for us and thus I drop his pay while guaranteeing him some longevity. Look at the injuries contending teams have overcome. You could play him awhile and suffer less than many. Most sites value one WAR at 7-8 million. At a 3.3 million avg it is not overpaying. He is more expensive than Mendick(still unproven and zero walks) who would be plan B if Yolmer wants more money or a starting role but for now we can afford it. He came up through our Latin American program and it was mentioned how he is looked at as a model for that program amongst the young guys involved now. Obviously popular amongst teammates, I am giving him a chance to remain at a fair price while giving him some financial security.

McCann did regress this second half. .225 /.282/.417 for OPS .698 His BABIP was .407 in first half .298 in second. For Grandal in my plan post I proposed 3-60 with payouts of 24/20/16 with maybe a fourth year 16 option. What you think?

Mentioned it in my offseason thread but with starters doing less and less, maybe the cost effective way is to do some team friendly extensions like we did with Sale and Q and if not almost never give the big dollar long year contracts. Most haven't worked for the teams. Maybe starting pitchers get valued like running back in NFL. No long term high dollar deals for post thirty year olds or after so many innings. I am sure you can crunch the numbers to tell you were the risk reward break point occurs.

Maybe if you did equal weighting and put six worst teams in a group. Then 7-14 in a group with equal weighting. Maybe can't be in top group more than two consecutive years.

If we don't sign Grandal or another catcher, I think Zavala is protected as you need that third catcher if a MLB guy goes down. If we sign a third, I could see him outright. With rosters expanding to 26 it will be easier for a team to keep a guy. Hamilton if not ready is easier to roster cause they could put him on DL so I wouldn't risk him unless medicals thick his career significantly threatened.

ChiSoxJohn Honest question why the hard pass on Grandal and Gardner? Many of your preferred cost the draft pick and associated dollars which I don't want to lose.

Thanks Greg. As the post was long, didn't mention a couple other things I would do. Robert and Madrigal arriving allow Leury to become the super utility. I would offer Yolmer 3 yrs 10-12 million and if you can't work out a deal trade/nontender him. Leury has to work on fixing the so/w issues. For a guy with little power a 138/20 so/w ratio is unacceptable. If you get to late innings and use him in left with Robert cf, Gardner rf , that would actually give you some decent defense. Credit to him for a healthier year and their positional versatility could allow you to carry Collins as a third catcher LH DH/1B. Maybe even free Yermin! There are a host of bullpen pitchers at AAA and lower who I think will allow you to piece together a decent bullpen. Colome and Herrera will cost about 18 million next year so I don't know if another expensive arm is added. It would be nice if Burdi, Hamilton, or Burr could reestablish their ceilings. Few mention that with relievers having to face 3 batters or the end of an inning how it will impact LOOGYs. Bummer has no split issues so lefties like him will have even higher value. Left handed batters may be a little better off if they aren't facing LOOGYs anymore which is another reason I wish to add some LH bats.

Soler has a -1.8 WAR as a fielder. With Eloy in left.........our poor center fielder!

As the season is about over thanks to everyone for their participation this year. If you have read parts one and two on our year and 40 man, I want to reemphasize a couple things. Our plate discipline was atrocious. We obviously have Robert and Madrigal on the way but a lot of our other prospects are returning from significant injuries. Our pitching staff needs help. RF and DH were league worst. Aside from Robert, our logjam of outfield prospects didn't distinguish themselves and don't look to provide help next year. By WAR, we are 15-20 WAR from contending and frankly some BABIP metrics could portend some regression for Moncada, Anderson, McCann so you might need a bit more. If Moncada could trim another 40-50 ks that cold offset and Anderson might return some walks as I think he is extra aggressive with a batting title on the line. Expectation #1 Abreu is brought back. Betting 2 -3 years. Hopefully year 3 is option. I bet it will be more dollars than we like. Hopefully DH's more. My thoughts. I don't expect us to get Cole. He is a SoCal guy, many teams in the hunt including Angels who I would make the favorite unless the Yankees really want him. He is probably the only free agent I would forfeit the draft pick and its associated pool dollars as I think we need to keep rebuilding. I also don't think we have the prospect depth to make a major acquisition unless it involves taking a bad contract back and using our payroll flexibility as several teams have budget concerns. Unfortunately, I don't see our front office being/allowed to be that creative. Target #1 Grandal. He just makes so much sense for our team. He has stated he wants to set the market for future players so he isn't coming cheap and a lot of teams will want him. His WAR values are very different on Baseball Reference 1.4-3.3 range last few years and FanGraphs 4.1-5.8. He is very consistent, avg about 15% better bat than league average. Solid glove and great plate discipline walking around 10%. Switch hits and has been used all through the Brewers lineup 1-6. Turned down 4 years 60 million last year. I would start with 3-60 with 24-20-16 payout and add in a 16 million fourth year option. He would probably play everyday for us. McCann would also catch and they both would be fresher and hopefully more productive sharing the load. When not catching, Grandal would DH or play some first. If you got him, the RF addition is able to be lower in the lineup and there are not a lot of great FA options out there. Target #2 Brett Gardner. Haven't seen him mentioned but hear me out. First, I hope to have a home grown RF in 2021-22. Hopefully one of ours develops from the multitude of options. The Yankees have a bunch of outfielders, some dollar concerns and I could see Gardner leaving. He is 36 but has been amazingly durable at 140ish games per year. Playing mainly center for Yankees with positive defensive metrics(one of few available with a good glove helping young pitchers). The last 7 years has WAR ranges of 2.8-4.9 and currently at 4.1 this year. A professional with playoff experience who would be useful for our youngsters as another mentor. His home/road splits are equal so not a product of Yankee stadium. Another guy with around a 10% walk rate and strikes out less than 20%. Again that plate discipline would help make pitchers work and hitting left handed balances lineup better. Because of Grandal you could hit him lower in the order. I think a two year deal could get him and don't think it would be super expensive12-15 annually? Plan B Nimmo? Popular pick on board but will cost prospects. Saw a rumor Mets looking for CF. Mets have budget issues. Would/could you take Jed Lowrie at 10 million for one year to lessen your prospect cost? LOL Yolmer and Engel and lesser prospect for Nimmo and Lowrie. Other Plan B's for Gardner all have warts. Calhoun could be let go especially if Angels get Cole. More strikeouts at about 25% and lower average(Dunn light?) but decent glove and walks 10%. Zobrist 39, terrible spring good OBP switch hits. Dickerson 31 good bat but never played RF and has broken foot. Puig no draft pick issue, right handed, pretty consistent , I guess ok. Jay Bruce? older expensive but wouldn't cost much prospect wise. Okay 2019 WAR for our RF and DH is -2.3 so Grandal and Gardner good for 7ish so 9WAR improvement! Fun Fact: Our starting pitchers generated 5.8 WAR. Giolitto has 5.8 WAR. What we have trotted out in the 4/5 slots is truly epic. The rebuild will be over when no one types this is the future: Covey -1.2 ,Detwiler -.5 , Santanna -.3, Banuelos -.4, Santiago -.4, Fulmer -.4 and Despaigne -.3 Totalling -3.5. Cease was -.1 so hopefully if he improves you gain a couple WAR there. Kopech something positive but I wouldn't hand either a automatic job. Could they regain a year of control on Kopech by keeping him down a month out of Chicago cold? I mention this because having reasonable pitchers could gain enough to put you in contention. Our bullpen ranked 6th and Herrera seems to be getting healthy. If he is his normal you could gain 2 WAR. I point all this out because I doubt we sign a big time pitcher to a big time contract. Cole is clearly elite and most of the rest have questions. The history of long term pitching contracts is not great on the team end. I would try to strike quickly before bigger dollar teams who lose out on "name" FA pivot back. A qualifying offer drops my interest and those that have them except Cole may have a slower market. Also starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings all the time. Maybe you should grow and develop pitchers continually and never give the big contract unless they are really special, kind of like running backs in the NFL. Target #3 Jake Odorizzi RHP, 30. Not a huge innings guy 170ish. 3.5 WAR this year but probably a 2 WAR guy. 2-3 years? 12-14? Kick the tires on Kuechel. Bring back Nova? Only six players beat his 2 WAR on this years team. His totals are what we traded for just bad first half colors perception of his season. Target #4 Another starter, possible swing guy or a veteran you could deal if our pitchers are healthy/performing at break. Rodon should return around the break though will he start or relieve? Well there you have it. Not sexy but realistic. Our best chance to have an ace is to develop one. This projects to gain the 15-20 WAR for us to contend. Again, thanks to everyone who took the time to read this and for your involvement throughout the year. Nice to know I don't suffer alone.

In Sept he is at .241 avg and ops of .794. Including his terrible summer, his OPS vs RHP now .810

Got moved during year. Only played 10 games at third and 37 in RF. Ouch in the ten games had 9 errors so probably not going back.