BamaDoc

It is why I didn't add Moose. It is why I didn't sacrifice major prospects.

I agree his payroll numbers are low but I don't mind the idea. It is much of what I suggested and adds in Moustakas instead of Yolmer. You may lose the bat of Abreu or Moustakas if you want to use Grandal at DH on some of his off days. Struggling to decide which good bat to use would be a welcome change! I really spent a lot of time looking at RF options and people really need to go look at how solid Gardner has been. That amount of time in NY and you've never heard a bad word about the guy.

I looked at WAR on fan graphs and baseball reference. Last 4 years Grandal 19.8 fg, 10.7 br total 30.5 JD 15.2fg, 15.7 br total 30.9 I don't know the difference in the sites formulas but they are very close when combined. I think either would be fine but Grandal fits our team better. Aside from McCanns first half, McCann has not been great and Grandal would be a huge upgrade. You should(we didn't) be able to get production from DH.

With my plan there are no contracts beyond three years. It maintains all our flexibility while we see how the later prospects develop. Grandal is the only higher dollar guy. He turned down 4-60 so I don't think 15 a year will do it especially when other teams will be in the mix. It is why I front load the deal(24/20/16) to make it more appealing to him, put teams with tighter payrolls at a disadvantage, and make him cheaper as he ages and performance might decline. Having a solid defensive catcher is important for our young starters. Last 4 yrs OPS .816,.767, .815, .843. Total WAR 4 yrs 11.5 (Castellanos 4 yr WAR 6.3)(Gardner 4 yr WAR 15.2!) Gloves mater, a run prevented is as good as a run scored. Yolmer is not a star and his WAR has gone from 3.5>2.6>2.2 while he got more expensive, 4.6 million this year. Yet, only six guys had more WAR on this team. He would become a backup for us and thus I drop his pay while guaranteeing him some longevity. Look at the injuries contending teams have overcome. You could play him awhile and suffer less than many. Most sites value one WAR at 7-8 million. At a 3.3 million avg it is not overpaying. He is more expensive than Mendick(still unproven and zero walks) who would be plan B if Yolmer wants more money or a starting role but for now we can afford it. He came up through our Latin American program and it was mentioned how he is looked at as a model for that program amongst the young guys involved now. Obviously popular amongst teammates, I am giving him a chance to remain at a fair price while giving him some financial security.

McCann did regress this second half. .225 /.282/.417 for OPS .698 His BABIP was .407 in first half .298 in second. For Grandal in my plan post I proposed 3-60 with payouts of 24/20/16 with maybe a fourth year 16 option. What you think?

Mentioned it in my offseason thread but with starters doing less and less, maybe the cost effective way is to do some team friendly extensions like we did with Sale and Q and if not almost never give the big dollar long year contracts. Most haven't worked for the teams. Maybe starting pitchers get valued like running back in NFL. No long term high dollar deals for post thirty year olds or after so many innings. I am sure you can crunch the numbers to tell you were the risk reward break point occurs.

Maybe if you did equal weighting and put six worst teams in a group. Then 7-14 in a group with equal weighting. Maybe can't be in top group more than two consecutive years.

If we don't sign Grandal or another catcher, I think Zavala is protected as you need that third catcher if a MLB guy goes down. If we sign a third, I could see him outright. With rosters expanding to 26 it will be easier for a team to keep a guy. Hamilton if not ready is easier to roster cause they could put him on DL so I wouldn't risk him unless medicals thick his career significantly threatened.

ChiSoxJohn Honest question why the hard pass on Grandal and Gardner? Many of your preferred cost the draft pick and associated dollars which I don't want to lose.

Thanks Greg. As the post was long, didn't mention a couple other things I would do. Robert and Madrigal arriving allow Leury to become the super utility. I would offer Yolmer 3 yrs 10-12 million and if you can't work out a deal trade/nontender him. Leury has to work on fixing the so/w issues. For a guy with little power a 138/20 so/w ratio is unacceptable. If you get to late innings and use him in left with Robert cf, Gardner rf , that would actually give you some decent defense. Credit to him for a healthier year and their positional versatility could allow you to carry Collins as a third catcher LH DH/1B. Maybe even free Yermin! There are a host of bullpen pitchers at AAA and lower who I think will allow you to piece together a decent bullpen. Colome and Herrera will cost about 18 million next year so I don't know if another expensive arm is added. It would be nice if Burdi, Hamilton, or Burr could reestablish their ceilings. Few mention that with relievers having to face 3 batters or the end of an inning how it will impact LOOGYs. Bummer has no split issues so lefties like him will have even higher value. Left handed batters may be a little better off if they aren't facing LOOGYs anymore which is another reason I wish to add some LH bats.

Soler has a -1.8 WAR as a fielder. With Eloy in left.........our poor center fielder!

As the season is about over thanks to everyone for their participation this year. If you have read parts one and two on our year and 40 man, I want to reemphasize a couple things. Our plate discipline was atrocious. We obviously have Robert and Madrigal on the way but a lot of our other prospects are returning from significant injuries. Our pitching staff needs help. RF and DH were league worst. Aside from Robert, our logjam of outfield prospects didn't distinguish themselves and don't look to provide help next year. By WAR, we are 15-20 WAR from contending and frankly some BABIP metrics could portend some regression for Moncada, Anderson, McCann so you might need a bit more. If Moncada could trim another 40-50 ks that cold offset and Anderson might return some walks as I think he is extra aggressive with a batting title on the line. Expectation #1 Abreu is brought back. Betting 2 -3 years. Hopefully year 3 is option. I bet it will be more dollars than we like. Hopefully DH's more. My thoughts. I don't expect us to get Cole. He is a SoCal guy, many teams in the hunt including Angels who I would make the favorite unless the Yankees really want him. He is probably the only free agent I would forfeit the draft pick and its associated pool dollars as I think we need to keep rebuilding. I also don't think we have the prospect depth to make a major acquisition unless it involves taking a bad contract back and using our payroll flexibility as several teams have budget concerns. Unfortunately, I don't see our front office being/allowed to be that creative. Target #1 Grandal. He just makes so much sense for our team. He has stated he wants to set the market for future players so he isn't coming cheap and a lot of teams will want him. His WAR values are very different on Baseball Reference 1.4-3.3 range last few years and FanGraphs 4.1-5.8. He is very consistent, avg about 15% better bat than league average. Solid glove and great plate discipline walking around 10%. Switch hits and has been used all through the Brewers lineup 1-6. Turned down 4 years 60 million last year. I would start with 3-60 with 24-20-16 payout and add in a 16 million fourth year option. He would probably play everyday for us. McCann would also catch and they both would be fresher and hopefully more productive sharing the load. When not catching, Grandal would DH or play some first. If you got him, the RF addition is able to be lower in the lineup and there are not a lot of great FA options out there. Target #2 Brett Gardner. Haven't seen him mentioned but hear me out. First, I hope to have a home grown RF in 2021-22. Hopefully one of ours develops from the multitude of options. The Yankees have a bunch of outfielders, some dollar concerns and I could see Gardner leaving. He is 36 but has been amazingly durable at 140ish games per year. Playing mainly center for Yankees with positive defensive metrics(one of few available with a good glove helping young pitchers). The last 7 years has WAR ranges of 2.8-4.9 and currently at 4.1 this year. A professional with playoff experience who would be useful for our youngsters as another mentor. His home/road splits are equal so not a product of Yankee stadium. Another guy with around a 10% walk rate and strikes out less than 20%. Again that plate discipline would help make pitchers work and hitting left handed balances lineup better. Because of Grandal you could hit him lower in the order. I think a two year deal could get him and don't think it would be super expensive12-15 annually? Plan B Nimmo? Popular pick on board but will cost prospects. Saw a rumor Mets looking for CF. Mets have budget issues. Would/could you take Jed Lowrie at 10 million for one year to lessen your prospect cost? LOL Yolmer and Engel and lesser prospect for Nimmo and Lowrie. Other Plan B's for Gardner all have warts. Calhoun could be let go especially if Angels get Cole. More strikeouts at about 25% and lower average(Dunn light?) but decent glove and walks 10%. Zobrist 39, terrible spring good OBP switch hits. Dickerson 31 good bat but never played RF and has broken foot. Puig no draft pick issue, right handed, pretty consistent , I guess ok. Jay Bruce? older expensive but wouldn't cost much prospect wise. Okay 2019 WAR for our RF and DH is -2.3 so Grandal and Gardner good for 7ish so 9WAR improvement! Fun Fact: Our starting pitchers generated 5.8 WAR. Giolitto has 5.8 WAR. What we have trotted out in the 4/5 slots is truly epic. The rebuild will be over when no one types this is the future: Covey -1.2 ,Detwiler -.5 , Santanna -.3, Banuelos -.4, Santiago -.4, Fulmer -.4 and Despaigne -.3 Totalling -3.5. Cease was -.1 so hopefully if he improves you gain a couple WAR there. Kopech something positive but I wouldn't hand either a automatic job. Could they regain a year of control on Kopech by keeping him down a month out of Chicago cold? I mention this because having reasonable pitchers could gain enough to put you in contention. Our bullpen ranked 6th and Herrera seems to be getting healthy. If he is his normal you could gain 2 WAR. I point all this out because I doubt we sign a big time pitcher to a big time contract. Cole is clearly elite and most of the rest have questions. The history of long term pitching contracts is not great on the team end. I would try to strike quickly before bigger dollar teams who lose out on "name" FA pivot back. A qualifying offer drops my interest and those that have them except Cole may have a slower market. Also starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings all the time. Maybe you should grow and develop pitchers continually and never give the big contract unless they are really special, kind of like running backs in the NFL. Target #3 Jake Odorizzi RHP, 30. Not a huge innings guy 170ish. 3.5 WAR this year but probably a 2 WAR guy. 2-3 years? 12-14? Kick the tires on Kuechel. Bring back Nova? Only six players beat his 2 WAR on this years team. His totals are what we traded for just bad first half colors perception of his season. Target #4 Another starter, possible swing guy or a veteran you could deal if our pitchers are healthy/performing at break. Rodon should return around the break though will he start or relieve? Well there you have it. Not sexy but realistic. Our best chance to have an ace is to develop one. This projects to gain the 15-20 WAR for us to contend. Again, thanks to everyone who took the time to read this and for your involvement throughout the year. Nice to know I don't suffer alone.

In Sept he is at .241 avg and ops of .794. Including his terrible summer, his OPS vs RHP now .810

Got moved during year. Only played 10 games at third and 37 in RF. Ouch in the ten games had 9 errors so probably not going back.

A few of us in the minors threads noticed Collins was not batting against lefties so not surprising when I checked he is at .095 with 2 walks and 11ks in 23PA. Obviously small sample size. But even counting his terrible stretch when first brought up he is now OPSing above .800 over righties in again a small small sample size. Two points, why aren't our legitimate prospects learning/given the chance to bat in unfavorable situations in the minors? He may at worst be a decent platoon bat which in my previous posts I discussed our league worst DH WAR. Wouldn't give him a thing but I would put him in the mix.

Where has this Palka been?

Thanks for comments on part one: State of Sox. Part two begins. With credit to baseball reference , here is our current 40 man roster. The basic rules for the Rule 5 draft in December are that Free Agents are removed and you have to add back players currently on the MLB 60 day DL. Sox have three 60 Day DL they would keep: Rodon, Burr, and Kopech. Free Agent subtractions of Jay, Santiago, Detwiler, and Nova keep you at 40 as Jay on 60 day DL. I expect (who doesn't) the Sox to resign Abreu so I will not open a spot. Castillos option should be bought out so 39. do DO Pitcher * 29 R R 5' 10" 200 Dec 31, 1989 2007 2 40 Reynaldo Lopez do DO Pitcher * 25 R R 6' 1" 200 Jan 4, 1994 2012 3 43 Evan Marshall us US Pitcher * 29 R R 6' 2" 225 Apr 18, 1990 2011 4 51 Carson Fulmer us US Pitcher * 25 R R 6' 0" 195 Dec 13, 1993 2013 5 57 Jace Fry us US Pitcher * 25 L L 6' 1" 190 Jul 9, 1993 2013 6 54 Ross Detwiler us US Pitcher * 33 R L 6' 5" 210 Mar 6, 1986 2007 7 46 Ivan Nova do DO Pitcher * 32 R R 6' 5" 250 Jan 12, 1987 2006 8 60 Jimmy Cordero do DO Pitcher * 27 R R 6' 4" 222 Oct 19, 1991 2012 9 64 Josh Osich us US Pitcher * 30 L L 6' 3" 232 Sep 3, 1988 2012 10 48 Alex Colome do DO Pitcher * 30 R R 6' 1" 220 Dec 31, 1988 2007 11 84 Dylan Cease us US Pitcher * 23 R R 6' 2" 190 Dec 28, 1995 2015 12 66 Jose Ruiz ve VE Pitcher * 24 R R 6' 1" 190 Oct 21, 1994 2012 13 39 Aaron Bummer us US Pitcher * 25 L L 6' 3" 200 Sep 21, 1993 2013 14 53 Hector Santiago us US Pitcher * 31 R L 6' 0" 215 Dec 16, 1987 2007 15 58 Manny Banuelos mx MX Pitcher * 28 R L 5' 10" 215 Mar 13, 1991 2008 16 18 Daniel Palka us US Position * 27 L L 6' 2" 220 Oct 28, 1991 2013 17 74 Eloy Jimenez do DO Position * 22 R R 6' 4" 205 Nov 27, 1996 2014 18 32 Matt Skole us US Position * 29 L R 6' 4" 220 Jul 30, 1989 2011 19 33 James McCann us US Position * 29 R R 6' 3" 225 Jun 13, 1990 2011 20 5 Yolmer Sanchez ve VE Position * 27 S R 5' 11" 185 Jun 29, 1992 2009 21 20 Danny Mendick us US Position * 25 R R 5' 10" 189 Sep 28, 1993 2014 22 10 Yoan Moncada cu CU Position * 24 S R 6' 2" 205 May 27, 1995 2012 23 79 Jose Abreu cu CU Position * 32 R R 6' 3" 255 Jan 29, 1987 2003 24 49 Ryan Cordell us US Position * 27 R R 6' 4" 195 Mar 31, 1992 2013 25 21 Welington Castillo do DO Position * 32 R R 5' 10" 220 Apr 24, 1987 2006 26 15 Adam Engel us US Position * 27 R R 6' 2" 210 Dec 9, 1991 2013 27 7 Tim Anderson us US Position * 26 R R 6' 1" 185 Jun 23, 1993 2013 28 28 Leury Garcia do DO Position * 28 S R 5' 8" 180 Mar 18, 1991 2008 29 17 Ryan Goins us US Position * 31 L R 5' 10" 180 Feb 13, 1988 2009 30 38 Zack Collins us US Position * 24 L R 6' 3" 220 Feb 6, 1995 2014 31 27 Lucas Giolito us US Pitcher 10-day 24 R R 6' 6" 245 Jul 14, 1994 2012 32 68 Dylan Covey us US Pitcher 10-day 27 R R 6' 1" 220 Aug 14, 1991 2013 33 50 Thyago Vieira br BR Pitcher 25 R R 6' 2" 210 Jul 1, 1993 2011 34 52 Ian Hamilton us US Pitcher 24 R R 6' 0" 200 Jun 16, 1995 2014 35 53 Caleb Frare us US Pitcher 25 L L 6' 1" 210 Jul 8, 1993 2012 36 62 Kodi Medeiros us US Pitcher 23 L L 6' 2" 205 May 25, 1996 2014 37 73 Luis Alexander Basabe ve VE Position 22 S R 6' 0" 160 Aug 26, 1996 2013 38 77 Micker Adolfo do DO Position 22 R R 6' 4" 255 Sep 11, 1996 2014 39 22 Charlie Tilson us US Position 26 L L 6' 0" 185 Dec 2, 1992 2011 40 59 Seby Zavala us US Position 25 R R 5' 11" 215 Aug 28, 1993 2014 Rk Uni Name Okay, that part was easy. Older draftees from 2016 are eligible to be lost and younger players, often international signings get one more year so 2015. Roster resource via Fangraphs has some nice depth charts indicating many of these players. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/white-sox Some are easier to project dropping and again it is someones career so I am refraining from "they suck" commentary. Many who are dropped can still be invited to spring training and we offer a easier way back to MLB as Rodon and I think Burr will go back on the 60 day at the start of the season allowing them a way onto the team without requiring someone being dropped. So I bolded 8 players who could be dropped/outrighted. That is 31 spots. Some are arguable. I am not totally sure how the upcoming rule of a reliever must finish the inning or pitch to three batters will affect everything but it is why I drop Osich who held lefties to a OBP of .561 but RH torched him to .970. I expect Yolmer to sign a multi year deal at a cut from this years salary or be non tendered so that may be another. A few of these guys can be either one or other. Engel with his annual hot streak, I took over Cordell and Tilson. You could add a pitcher and drop Vieira, Ruiz, Frare, or Meideros. So I look at guys who need to be added. Dunning, Burdi, Lambert, Flores on the pitching side. Thompson, Matt Foster, Hansen are relievers who I would hope to protect. Spencer Adams was not protected last year and hurt this year so I don't protect. Position players: Rutherford needs protection, I wish they had promoted Mercedes, I don't know what they will do with him. Forbes, Zangari, Nunez on the position side I hope might become something but doubt they protect. Pitchers like Minaya, Kubat, Turner, Martinez, Paulino, Long are doubtful. My sleeper is Lefty Jacob Lindgren, former 2nd round pick who made it to the majors one year after being drafted. Then got hurt, missed two years and we took a flyer. Obviously had talent was in A+ with us and had 1.53 ERA. Actually had 13 ip vs righties with 15/1 k/w ratio and they hit .163 Actually lefties hit him well but would someone take a chance on cheap controllable guy who was a definite prospect? With a 26 man roster I think with the shortage of pitching I might take that flyer. If it doesn't work you lose 25 k. Anyway that is about ten to add so it seems doable until you start adding in free agent signings. Most of us are thinking, beyond Abreu 3-5 so it does begin to matter. Had our fringe players actually played decent, you can see where this would have been really tough. As it is, I expect us to probably have someone drafted this year and if they succeed we will complain "how could that happen". So take a look and tell me what you would do. Cut a lot more of the current 40 to protect prospects or hope no one wants the prospects? Does struggling your first couple times up mean you won't succeed later? Are you a learning curve or instant success person? Hopefully, ala Yankees etc, leading up to the draft you can trade your fringe players for guys who don't require protection or do 2:1 deals to help roster management but it is tighter than I expected after diving deeper.

Several of our DSL guys getting a taste of baseball in america. Bailey, Laureano, lot of recent draft picks as well. Hansen the oldest guy as they continue to try to fix. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-chicago-white-sox-instructional-league-roster/

I think it may be a mutual option. 11 million for what he produced is pretty solid and I agree he may not want to go through FA again. I expect a sweetner for him to accept the 1/11 by adding another year and maybe an option on top of that.

I looked it up 3.1 PA per scheduled game or 502. He is beyond that now. Would you rest a day before end of season so no stigma of not playing last game?

Our lack of depth is impressive

shoulder

Rather than a bunch of great teams, I think it speaks to a lot of previous middling teams doing the full scale rebuild.

Completely agree. The days of guys like Fisk seem to be gone like starting pitchers getting complete games. 37 year old Molina caught all 19 innings last night for Cards! Cap tip to him and yes he is not catching the day game today. They look like Ozzies sunday lineup lol.

Think Engel having annual streak that makes you think maybe..... Not sure of the quality of pitchers he has faced. I did look at his splits and even with hot streak last 49ab 17k