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I trust Eloy's judgment on this about as much as I trust his judgment on how to stay injury free.

Don't forget Rodon. There's a good chance he might not be around for the playoffs. 41-24 , 16 games left to reach the season midpoint. 66.2 IP so far. Assume he makes 3 more starts 5 IP /start to reach the midway point . That will give him right around 82 IP . Let me conservatively estimate 10 starts in the 2nd half at 5 IP/start to add another 55 innings which equals 137 IP. How many IP do we think Rodon is capable of after pitching a combined 42 IP in the last 2 years ? 125 ? 150 ? In the 2019 WS Nats v. Astros 9 starting pitchers were used. The 7 best all had between 184 and 258 IP Rodon and Cease have never come close to that amount of IP. The last time Keuchel did it was 2018. The Nats ( the WS winners) used 5 different starting pitchers in the WS and the Astros used 4 . It's a fallacy that the Sox will only need 3 SP in the World Series. If you are looking for a big 3 it's likely to be Lynn Giolito and Keuchel or Cease . Rodon and Kopech will likely be over the IP goals the Sox had hoped they could pitch this year and way over anything they have done in the past 2 years. Cease could also fit into that category. Keuchel will certainly pitch his most innings since 2018.

In other words : Vote early and often and then vote later and often in the final round.

I'm just going by their record. Wins and losses is the true indicator to me. Without more power I'd expect it to stay the same against RHP. Now Eloy and Robert may help of course especially when you consider our starting pitching but we need them at full strength . Another strong LH bat would be a big help. I also did mention that most of the stats about how the Sox hit RHP is against weaker Central division pitching except the Indians. Good teams with good RHP , the kind you face in the playoffs I don't think it will be enough with a primarily RH lineup.

To make it all the way through the playoffs and win a World Series the Sox will have to use at least 4 starting pitchers and maybe even 5 . Let's just use the most recent World Series as an example. The Nationals started 5 different starting pitchers. Scherzer , Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, Patrick Corbin and Joe Ross. 4 of those 5 pitched more innings than Rodon is probably capable of this season. When you combine regular season with playoffs Scherzer pitched 202 innings, Strasburg ( the WS MVP ) 253 innings, Anibal Sanchez 184 IP and Patrick Corbin 225 IP. If you look at the Astros they had 4 different stating pitchers in the World Series 3 of which threw more combined regular season and playoff innings than Rodon is probably capable of. Gerrit Cole 253 IP, Justin Verlander 258 IP, and Zack Greineke 234 IP. The 4th starter was Jose Urquidy . If we assume Rodon might not make it to the post season unless his innings pitched are cut way back 150 innings might be the very top of the ladder that we can expect for him this year and even that seems unlikely.That leaves Lynn, Giolito ,Keuchel and Cease among our starting pitchers. The most IP Cease has ever thrown is 141 between Charlotte and the Sox in 2019. Dallas Keuchel hasn't pitched over 200 innings since 2018. He will probably pitch more innings this year than 2019 and 2020 combined. If you include Kopech as a postseason starter he didn't pitch any innings in 2019 and 2020.

I think he has to make his starts every 5 days to keep his rhythm. As the innings pile up Carlos may not be able to find that extra gear of throwing from 98 to 100 when he needs it or he may go through a dead arm period and just plain and simple break down again. The deeper you go the more tired you get and fatigue is a big factor in injury. Sure it would suck every time he's taken out after 75 pitches of so no matter the inning or if he has a no hitter or not but if the goal is the World Series and the Sox can get a good lead in the division race , every starting pitcher will see his workload curtailed. That's the whole reason why I prefer the Sox load up on relief arms. Starting pitchers are babied now. There's really no reason for any of them to go deeper into games unless they have built a tolerance to it like Lynn who is a horse. Rodon isn't even close to that level of arm durability.

I think that's in the ball park. My first thought is things won't continue the same way for Carlos. I mean how could they ? There's just no way he can keep this up for 150+ innings if anyone is expecting Lynn and him to be the 1 and 2 starting pitchers in the playoffs. Even at number 3 that's a lot of innings for a guy who pitched 42 innings in the last 2 years combined. If he does keep it up for 150 innings + I'll be extremely impressed .

I think Carlos also took his talent for granted and didn't work on his body enough. I think he convinced the Sox that he was in the best shape of his life and would be willing to work with Katz on changes to resurrect his career. It would be nice if when Rodon reaches Free Agency that he at least give the Sox a chance to match any offer he gets if he's stay healthy of course. Long way to go.

Yea I remember talking about Rodon a lot and I have nothing in this thread. I know I was doubtful he'd get a MLB deal and if the Sox didn't sign him maybe all he would've got would be a minor league contract. Any differences the 2 sides may have had in the past were quickly rectified ( if they existed at all) by $3M and the hiring of Katz.

Exactly just look at Cease . His fastball hasn't changed much from the last few years to this year but what has changed is the knuckle curve. Maybe the command of the FB is better and that makes some difference but his K rate was plummeting without being able to throw any other pitch for strikes consistently. Now with the Knuckle curve and slider can be combined as tandem pitches . Then he can just as easily further throw you off balance with a change up. Off course the spin rate for all his pitches is higher also but he's just throwing more strikes with more pitches. He's throwing the same pitches at the same frequency as last year.

Not just someone , someone who hits RHP well. The Sox record against RHP is still around .500. Considering the majority of games are against RHP , once you face stronger teams that record against RHP will become worse and there's no way to make it to the World Series unless they hit RHP better. Remember that's a .500 against RHP with a lot of our games against weaker opponents and a strong starting pitching staff.

I agree the Sox will need more starting pitching but that doesn't address what we need this year. We can probably agree that Lynn has been our best starter and should continue to be going forward. Our next best arms have been Rodon , Hendrix, Kopech and Crochet. 3 of the next 4 best are serious question marks to even have enough stamina left to reach the playoffs let alone go through the playoff and get to the World Series. Rodon, Kopech and Crochet are going to reach pitching limits . Rodon should probably be limited to 5 innings pitched per start from now on. Kopech has been shut down for injury but many suspect it's also an effort to limit his innings. What Crochet can withstand on his arm is a crapshoot. Trade for some pitcher with a good health history who also pitch well in relief maybe 1 multiple inning guy and 1 late inning guy. The pitching staff that holds up the best in the normal season after the short season will be the favorite to at least reach the World Series. I'm not worried too much about the position players although another LH power bat would be nice since our record against RHP is still mediocre. Just find one guy who rakes against RHP. Escobar isn't really that guy since his strong side is hitting right handed but he's still got good pop against RHP. Starling Marte is pretty good against both RHP and LHP and is a very good fielder in the OF but I fear 2nd base is the weakest link in the lineup and the easiest and cheapest place to find a Left handed bat. Jerry may pony up for some salary but I'm not expecting much.

Good post and very much along the same lines as I posted a few posts back. I'd say the opinions on Dunning for Lynn trade was about split 50/50. There will always be a very vocal group who love prospects so much that any trade of any prospect for one year of a player will be criticized. The negative opinions are always the loudest in any area. Game threads would all be under 5 pages if all the negative and post game comments after wins were taken out. I'm pretty sure I posted a lot about the trade since I was probably the 1st one to suggest that trade before the trade deadline in 2020. I really wanted Lynn for 2 post seasons instead of 1. The Rangers put a higher price on him I'm guessing that the Sox decided not to pay and year one of contending in 2020 was out the window. It was always in my mind that if you make the playoffs it's a contending year. Right now only the present counts and his team will surely have good enough hitting once Eloy and Robert come back. Between Engel, Goodwin, Eaton and Vaughn I'm good with the OF although 1 player who could play defense and offense would be nice. A switch hitting power bat like Escobar would be really nice for 2nd base but once again pitching will be the key so I'm just going to keep sounding like a broken record. Load up on relief pitching . Find a couple of good veteran arms who have been through the grind like Hendrix . Guys who appear to have rubber arms who pitch well and often. If the Sox keep pitching Rodon and Kopech at their current rates neither will be around to pitch in the World Series which is a partial reason why Kopech is taking a while to come back from his injury. Rodon pitched 42 combined innings in the last 2 years and he's already got 67 this year. Any guesses on when his arm will conk out ? 100 ? 125 ? 150 ? Kopech pitched 0 innings the last 2 years . He's at 31 now and some people here are expecting him to take Rodon's spot in the rotation at some point in the 2nd half. I don't have a clue how many innings Crochet can pitch. All I know about him is he hasn't thrown a single pitch 100 MPH when last year every other pitch was at 100. If he's dialed it back to prevent injury I'm all for it since he's been effective. The Sox just said last week they are going to try Crochet now for over 1 inning at a time. That decision in itself can be a separate thread of opinions when you weigh if he can become a future starting pitcher vs. winning a World Series vs. keeping him healthy.

The farm is a mess . AAA and AA it's filled with AAAA guys in their mid twenties. Anyone is is willing to take them is fine by me. The only window in my mind is the open window this year with a better starting pitching staff than we are going to get in any the future window. If you want Rodon, Kopech and Crochet to pitch in a World Series then their innings need to be severely curtailed and we need extra arms. All 3 of them barely pitched in 2019 and 2020. Those 3 are way too important to success this year. Pitcher's are dropping like flys already so imagine how bad the 2nd half will be . The eventual World Series winner will have the best pitching depth. It's going to be a war of attrition.

Also the Angels clawing their way back to over .500 .

I'll try to convince you. As you said the staff health has been great. However with the full season after the short season once you get into August and September I'm expecting some pretty tired arms. Then multiple rounds of the playoffs. Of course the difference from 2020 to 2021 may apply to every team and pitchers you may trade for . Then throw in the guys on innings limits and Kopech, Crochet, Rodon and young relievers who have never pitched a full season like Heuer. If the Sox want to limit Rodon or other starters innings as much as they can down the stretch a much larger burden will fall to the pen. To me this means I'd like to get 2 arms before any positional talent, preferably veteran arms who have been through the grind before. By the time all those arms reach the World Series can we honestly say Kopech, Crochet and Rodon will still be in the mix ? Those 3 barely pitched at all last year. Rodon pitched about 42 innings combined in 2019 and 2020. Kopech sat out last year and was rehabbing in 2019 so 0 innings in the 2 previous years. Crochet in 2020 pitched 9 innings between the Sox and the Tennessee Volunteers and 65 innings for the Vols in 2019.

He's faster but he gets the worst jumps of just about any OF around. He runs well once he gets going but a good OF also gets going quicker . I'm not saying it was the wrong decision just one I wouldn't have done. Too early to pinch hit. Rodon was rolling along and still 4 innings to go to get more offense. Leave the LHB Goodwin in the game to face the other RHP's who were bound to come into the game once Alexander left and leaving the better defender also comes into play when talking about winning the game.

When TLR had Vaughn pinch hit for Goodwin in the 5th, I was thinking it was kind of a backwards move. I was like if Rodon still has a no hitter I'd rather have Goodwin in LF than Vaughn and also since there was a LHP at that moment I figured he wouldn't be on the mound very long and kind of strange to PH so early when Vaughn very well may be facing RHP after that 1 AB. But it was a bit too early to be thinking about the no hitter. Sox had just taken a 2-0 lead in the 5th when Leury hit the double to drive in Mendick against the LHP Alexander. So Leury on 2nd 1 out, TLR probably just wanted to get that run in from 2nd to get a 3 run lead. I doubt I'd pinch hit there . Even if Goodwin K's Moncada is still up next or maybe he surprises and hits the guy and at least you leave the better fielder in the game and a LH to face RHP later in the game. That hit was just the kind of hit I have been explaining why Vaughn's speed or lack of it matters so much in the OF. He can get good jumps and reads and do a lot of things right but never be more than a mediocre fielder because over time there will just be too many balls he cannot get to. It's why I always cringe when people start talking about Robert being flanked by Vaughn and Eloy. It's also why I'd give Engel more time than anyone else . He's the only one who can prove he can be a good fielder and a good hitter. I know we have plenty of doubters but he has improved hitting every year for 3 years culminating last year with pretty good numbers against RHH and so far in his AB's this year he looks good. He's got a short compact swing , drives the ball, and has HR and extra base power. He's like a poor mans Trout only has learned the craft of hitting much later and now needs a chance to prove he's more than a 4th OF. Good defense in your good hitters matters a lot. It's one reason why Tampa Bay has played well. They lead the league in Outs Against Average. Guys like Betts who can do it all means they can contribute on the bases and in the field and they have hitting slumps.

Leury is a super sub and the Sox are missing 3 guys from positions he can play. He's literally doing exactly what he is getting paid for. It's possible he plays less next week but there is still a hole at those 3 positions . Now that Engel and Goodwin are here there's going to be a lot of mixing and matching in the OF and I have no idea when Hamilton is coming back. Leury could split time at 2nd base with Mendick . I'm not thrilled he's batting leadoff but as we have discovered this is a good team because of our starting pitching and some team speed and decent defense all combining together with an opportunistic offense. Try to think of Leury as a good luck charm if it helps.

That's the spirit . The Sox beat them into submission yesterday. Now show Rodon you can actually score some runs for the guy ! This is team Chemistry class from Professor LaRussa. Keep the team fresh for TB and Stro's.

You have to take notice that TLR is resting guys against a team the Sox can handle without the best lineup. For one it's keep the subs fresh and playing more boosts confidence and unites a team. He's wants his guys fresh for the upcoming games against the Rays and Astro's. They may not be division games but you want your guys to play well against the best teams so they know in their hearts they are capable of beating those same teams in the playoffs. Remember despite bravado it's a young team and they are playing teams that have been to the dance before multiple times. If they can beat them now without Eloy, La Pantera and Madrigal imagine how pumped they will be once they come back and with a few TDL acquisitions that will tell them that management also cares about winning it all this year.

15 HR's would be 1st on the Sox and his .463 Slg would be right behind Abreu for team lead. Of course he's also a switch hitter and can play all infield positions mostly 3rd and 2nd . The problem with Escobar is he hits lefties better than righties just like the rest of the Sox. His splits are a little more dramatic this year than his career splits but he still has 10 of his HR's against RHP. Someone else said his fielding looked good statistically this year at 2nd base but I believe it's only 20 games so not much to go on. There's still time before the TDL to assess the most glaring holes but most would probably agree there is a need for a relief pitcher or 2. When you have 3 RP struggling and Kopech and Crochet on pitching limits and all starting pitching having a good chance of being fatigued due to the short season last year (especially Rodon) it would be wise to load up on relievers. I would think every playoff caliber team will try to do this so it could be a sellers market for relief pitching so my 1st move would be to get ahead of the market and try to get a good one now. I think these factors are often overlooked because it's always more glamorous to dream about more hitting . In summary ,go after relief pitching 1st and foremost striking asap. Keep reassessing the biggest need among position players as long as you can but be ready to pounce when the time is nigh. I anticipate either 2nd base or RF to be the most pressing need but one never knows when someone else may go down. Keep in mind this may be the best year the Sox have to win a World Series so talking about having faith in Mendick , Goodwin , Engel or the pen guys to turn it around won't get the job done. Make the team as strong as you can now. The 2nd half is going to be a bear to all pitchers .

Don't think I'd have Escobar 9th . He has 15 HR's which would easily be the most on the Sox right now. However in your defense that lineup is so stacked I don't really know what to change. I doubt we have the bullets for more than Escobar and a Relief pitcher though. Marte would be pretty cool though.

Based on what ?