CaliSoxFanViaSWside

Too many "ifs" involved here. No one knows who is in or out yet. People might be disappointed if there no movement from the Sox by Dec.1st if guys we want get signed before then. There's also going to be a long wait to see how the CBA gets resolved and to actually figure out how the Sox fill their holes. Personally I 'll be happy if just the Kimbrel deal gets done.

He was returning from TJ surgery and ended up with 344 PA. He then rebounded in the Covid yr prompting the Phillies to extend him for another 2 yrs @$28M and he ended up being very bad in 2021 .Conforto had 502 but people are blaming the down yr on hamstring troubles which just sounds like agent talk to me even if it's a legit reason for the higher then usual GB rate from him, lack of his usual power and worse fielding year of his career.

Players who believe in themselves will reject qualifying offers and they also have an agent telling them he's going to a lot of big offers . Maybe he does get big offers but the rumor mill around him has been pretty quiet. Didi Gregorius had 2 straight 4 WAR seasons then had a .9 WAR season entering his FA year and had to settle for a 1 yr. $10M contract. He didn't even have the draft pick attached to him like Conforto does. I'm pretty sure he was around the same age as Conforto.

I've actually surprised at the amount of people here and 2 of our insiders who expect a big payday for Conforto but I'm out there with just my guesses expecting less. I know plenty here think he's the perfect fit and with an expected payroll increase think Conforto is a guy to splurge on and think he'll have a strong market. I don't see it but I've been wrong before. Reminds me of the Didi Gregorius talks around here after he put up his 2 best seasons then had a down year and I didn't think he's get much of a contract and others thought I was nuts. He ended up getting a 1 yr contract for $10M had a good Covid year and Phils resigned him for 2 more years for $28M and had an abysmal yr. in 2021. I'll edit this to say I'm mistaken about what I thought about Didi's contract. I didn't think he'd get much after his very good 2020 Covid yr. He ended up getting 2/28 from the Phillies then sucked big time in 2021. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Phillies want to give up Didi instead of Segura in a trade for Kimbrel.

Starting pitching perhaps but silence from the Sox hardly means we aren't in on Conforto . I can't find anything googling legit interest in him except for Boras blather.

Was hoping for a link. I can find a few opinions on it that are speculation and some of them are just using the 1 yr pillow contract as a basis .

I don't see anything about that on MLBTR . Where did you see it ?

Outside of Boras blowing his horn for the interest in Conforto have you heard anything else about interest in him ? I guess I am in the minority that thinks his bad year will drive down offers to him. I know he has a very solid track record but can you think of any precedents of a similar player his age to get a decent contract over $75M for 4 years coming off such a bad year ?

Yep there are people who think just getting anyone to pay the whole contract and get a tiny nothing piece in return would've been good and they might not be wrong. There are also people who would rather have the payroll flexibility than trade him for Segura and Sox fans who think Segura an expensive, old, piece who bats with the wrong hand. Then there are the Phillie fans who think Segura is a valuable piece and Kimbrel is worthless. If he does go to the Phils we are going to have some controversy on Soxtalk unless somehow the Sox get the Phils to eat his whole contract and get a B and C prospects.

Unless the market is fierce for Conforto I don't think he comes within $25M of that and if he's expecting that he won't be signing before Dec. 1st. He had a terrible year and if anyone is offering him QO money for 4 years it would be a coup for Conforto.

Probably because he doesn't think Kimbrel is worth anything.

He'd be very sleepy.

I knew both fangraphs and MLBTR had him taking a 1 yr pillow deal . I tried to take that into consideration because it just may be the best plan for him to get a higher contract if he can regain his mojo. However if he prefers the security of at close to $50M he may bite unless interest that Boras says exists is true. Teams could be trying to get him cheap for all we know . So I kind of settled in a place that could be tempting for him.

Those were the 2 guys talked about a lot at the trade deadline . I know I talked up Gallo but when someone asked me if I'd take Marte I said I'd be more than happy with him.

Supposedly there's a lot of interest in him. Plus I haven't checked to see if any Boras guys signed yet. C. Seager and Semien are the one rumored to want to sign before Dec. 1.

Yup I thought of that and basically forgot to put it in my post . He was clearly the best CF on the market .

I actually like it. Mets overpayed some considering Marte is 33 but he had his best season ,played well in both leagues and has tremendous instincts on the bases. I'm not sure it can translate to what Conforto's contract might be given the difference in age and power and career best year for SM and career worst for Conforto but I'll give it a shot. 3/$48M

From what I read he also had hamstring problems where he missed a month early in the season and then some time with "leg fatigue" in July . So problems with his lower half could've led to hitting issues. Pretty high GB rate but it's always been high even in his good years. Line drive rate was way down so there's the difference. . Nido is a very good defensive catcher and McNeil pretty fluid LH 2nd baseman. I guess the Sox weren't the only team with hammy issues since most here are saying Conforto's issues hitting are tied to his hammy too (although more shifting on Conforto is definitely a thing.)

I'd take McNeil and Tomas Nido. Kimbrel and Seby go to Mets.

Well it's mostly from the past where the Sox lagged behind it appeared in scouting , development ,analytics . And when that stuff should 've been fixed before they started the rebuild it was supposedly fixed during the rebuild. It didn't help that Semein and Tatis were given away . Also didnt help that the Sox were trading away IFA money, have yet to find a Dominican star through that process which has been around a while with the most talent coming from the DR. Wilder scandal. And they also were kind of late to the party that middle infielders were gold while drafting catchers and 1st baseman. Who exactly is the last starting pitcher drafted by the Sox with a high draft choice who had any sustained success ? They also didn't produce much of anything during the draft from the bad rebuild years . They tanked but didn't tank quite badly enough to get higher draft picks. One of them was given away (Madrigal). What's the failure there? They draft him 4th overall ,then think they made a mistake, so gave him away for nothing ? Then there's the whole Machado friends and family waste of money . Then there was the guy who said Collins would've been drafted 1-1 if the Sox had the first pick who has since been replaced. I'm probably forgetting some like TLR being signed by JR basically while many think TLR has more input into decision making than Hahn. @bmags Recently posted a list of good draft choices around baseball that the Sox passed on in some early rounds . I know what a crap shoot the draft is but how is it that the Dodgers always find better draft picks than the Sox picking later or find guys like Muncy and Taylor when the Sox can't ,not even during a rebuild when you can pour more resources into scouting and development and analytics . You have to have a long memory . You just can't remember the successes and think everything is OK and keep buying into JR being some kind of magnanimous owner. It's alleged by a former GM of the Marlins that JR supposedly said his best advice was to finish in second place and keep dangling the carrot. Now some people would argue to death about any or all these things but there's enough of a track record of discord to think Jerry runs things his way and it hasn't turned out all that good many many times.

Seems eerily quiet right now.

Do we see a calm before the storm kind of weekend ?

Yep I have also mentioned coming back to Carlos a few times already. it may not happen but I think he'll be in the mix.

Happy Turkey day to all .

To be clear most of what I am saying is paraphrasing what Ben Clemens of Fangraphs said about Conforto and his market .He went into more detail regarding his hammy and bout with Covid .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ scroll down to #22 . I think the Sox might be willing to splurge on 1 high end deal but expecting 2 seems a little over the top for the sake of payroll flexibility. @Chicago White Sox has the Sox spending close to $200M on a 4 yr. Conforto deal and 5 yr Gausman deal added to the $24M 3 yr deal for Graveman. That's $220M which seems a bit optimistic. Maybe it's closer to $150M or less with a major trade (not counting dumping Kimbrels and Keuchel contracts as major trades unless more pieces are involved ).