CaliSoxFanViaSWside

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-quick-note-on-the-liam-hendriks-contract/#comments This is the fangraphs article used in the luxury tax thread. It says payroll is it $131M (Roster Resource) but for luxury tax purposes it's at $160M.

I think as far as luxury tax purposes go they are already up to $160M according to what's posted in the Luxury Tax thread. That's my reason for thinking the only money spent going forward is reserved for the SP the Sox trade for or trade deadline purposes.

I guess we will see today what Katz thinks of Lopez. If Lopez is DFA'd and a BP piece traded for a starting pitcher the BP takes a hit.

I think that is significant money to the Sox right now with a hole still in the rotation .

Right and I certainly am not trying to make that discussion stop and I'd be happy to be wrong but I think any remaining money is going to the pitcher we trade for.

But many here think the Sox will or should spend money on it and a FA starting pitcher and a backup catcher whereas I'm thinking we see very little spent from this point forward .

Just came here to say that since as i just said I doubt the Sox address the DH position with any significant money. I say it and voila ,the Nick Williams signing occurs.

Our LH DH ladies and gentlemen.

He last pitched in his age 32 season , his last high end season. If anyone thought he was still high end after 2 years basically not pitching entering his age 35 season he won't be had for $6-8M. Just a guess he signs for more than that. Probably get's a 2 year or 1 plus an option for 10+. If the Sox sign him I'd be surprised.

What makes you think he is either one of those ?

This is why I think Joe Musgrove is the most likely guy to be traded for. He only has 2 years of control left and anything more than that the Sox likely give up at least 2 pitchers and possibly Crochet, Kopech and another pitcher like Heuer or some from the minors like Burdi, Johnson, Kelley , Dahlquist , Thompson or Stiever. The Sox will do their damnedest to not trade one of Kopech, Crochet or Vaughn but it wouldn't surprise me if they did.

I was hoping Dahl would still be available. I was surprised he signed so early because I thought for sure with his injury it would take longer. I thought he undersold himself and at $2.7M he would be the best choice since I am seriously doubting the Sox spend much more money after the Hendriks signing and $18M cap hit. Mitch Moreland makes the most sense to me now. But I'm not certain the Sox address a strictly DH option.

True and If ptatc already knows that we need 1 more solid starter and rather trade for it than sign a FA that somewhat negates his argument that 3 solid starters plus Cease and Kopech plus the good group in the minors because some of that will be traded for the 1 more solid starter. We aren't trading for pitching without giving up pitching.

The Sox are pretty much tapped out right now . There will be no Bauer . There will be no FA starting pitcher signed . If they do trade for the cost controlled guy expect one of your favorite prospects to be leaving. If they can nab anyone decent with 3 years of control without a top prospect that's what we will be getting. That being said I think it's Musgrove unless the Sox think they can get Taijuan Walker for a 2 year $15M or less contract. He's the 4th rated SP available through FA but I doubt too many here would be thrilled with him. His peripherals and statcast stuff isn't good which always indicates to me that he's a guy that mixes and matches and tries to keep hitters off balance because he lacks stuff. He's good against RHH , not so much against LHH. His slider or cutter ( it gets characterized differently by different places) is his best pitch and he seems to have settled on using his 4 seamer less though he can run it up there to 95. I do like that he had a strong second half last year which means he's all the way back from his TJ surgery. I am somewhat envious the Blue Jays picked him up for a PTBNL while the Sox were spinning their wheels going after Lynn at the trade deadline. Walker would have easily been our 3rd starter and had that game 3 start against Oakland . He had one start against Oakland 7/31/20 and gave up 1 hit , 8K and 2 walks in 7 innings. After he was traded to the Jays he started 6 games with a 1.37 ERA and 4.14 FIP . His career FIP is 4.24.

Then we will see if the Sox settle with Lopez or let an arbitrator decide if he's worth $2.2M and if the Sox DFA him as an early sign that I am correct that they are tapped out and we either see a trade for another starting pitcher and dumpster diving for anything else. By that I mean any FA signed from this point forward will be $5M or less . And I agree about the closer but I also think that with Hendricks and a strong pen it lessens the dependence on stronger starting pitching. If there is one thing we know about the Sox they would rather take the cheap route to winning than the one that requires them to make a commitment to a top of the market starting pitcher. The options the Sox currently have are 3 starting pitchers, one of whom is gone in a year who people are hoping gets extended with Lynn, which is rather pitiful hoping they extend him at his age til his age 36 season. Keuchel is 33 and are hoping he is good enough to last through his age 35 season so we can pick up his option for his age 36 season ? Cease and Kopech both have to prove themselves and right now Crochet isn't even a glimmer in the eye of the starting rotation. Let's not overestimate the options we currently have. It's why the Sox are seeking a trade for a cost controlled starter more than anything else right now. It's not the options we currently have keeping the Sox from taking a shot at Bauer its money. We are still looking for our Wheeler only now the Sox can't afford him.

If Lopez is DFA'd because they couldn't settle and the estimated arb. cost of $2.2M is deemed too expensive to keep for his current role then either Katz doesn't like what he sees or Sox have run out of money and we will see trades and dumpster diving for anything else added to the 25/26.

Then I see a trade coming rather than signing a free agent for starting pitching. As I said earlier in the Bauer thread, signing Hendriks is an excuse for not signing Bauer and now it appears it will be an excuse for not signing any SP and maybe not another LH bat too . The good news is I've very rarely, if ever, had one of those posts where upon further review didn't age well and am hoping this becomes one.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I think the Sox are seeking a trade but a trade on their terms. I think they will have a hard time doing that and ultimately end up signing a starting pitcher. You like Q and I don't really really understand why and I like Taijuan Walker.

It truly is a joke. It's hard to pinpoint what's going on besides making the obvious assumption that the owners are trying to make a point on how much Covid hurt the bottom line. To that end they must be really hoping the long wait drives FA prices into the ground. You could probably make 4 decent 5 man SP rotations with all the SP left.

That makes you right around TLR's age.

Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind ?

Winning Ugly Team

I think he could get a $35M AAV in a shorter 3 yr. contract just not in a 7 or 8 year contract. It's what he could get in those 4th , 5th and 6th years that might be holding things up.

I think the Sox got creative with Hendriks because his salary for 2021 , 2022 and 2023 was $11M, $13M and $14M with the 4th year either $15M if they keep him or spread out over 10 years if they didn't. Not sure how creative you can get with Bauer at easily double+ those amounts when if he wanted to take a 3 year deal he could probably get $125M guaranteed with no creativity needed from someone. There's just no way the Sox would pay anyone $40M not to pitch no matter how many years they spread it out and not a chance Bauer accepts that.

I think you meant accept not expect.