CaliSoxFanViaSWside

I disagree, this is a whole new story with a whole new set of circumstances with a young core already here and more on the way. Eloy Moncada Giolito Lopez and all the young relievers. There's probably a reason why are seeing the Sox mentioned interested in a lot of different free agents. I'd actually love for the whale situations to be resolved early. That way if the Sox don't get one of them we just fill the pitching gaps like Hahn originally said and we tank another year, It would be disappointing but but it still part of the plan for 2020/21. They either move up the timeline or can move back to the original plan.

So you honestly think if the Sox get the whale they do nothing else to move up the timeline up with all the payroll space they have. with the new TV contract looming with the other kids still a few years away ? I know you're all worried about the kids getting blocked but sorry , deal with that when the kids actually get here. My theory is the backwards rebuild. Instead of the free agents to supplemrnt the roster you use free agency plus the young guys already up to built the roster into a contender with the one whale contract plus the smaller 1-3 possibly 4 yr deals which almost max out the payroll right away. Then depending on how the years go you either keep them or trade them. When the smaller contracts run out is when the new kids arrive while now the payroll gets lower to create room for more moves and/or pay for the older kids arbitration years. I think this way actually keeps the window open longer if you look at what happens to a team like Cleveland or the Cubs when the payroll maxes out and they are handcuffed.

Where did you get 3 teams from ?

Anytime you get into the "he will age better" territory it's dicey. A 18 months ago when we started talking about future free agents the Sox might sign in 2019 Donaldson was a very popular choice and many said the same thing about them thinking he will age better. Harper has had more injuries and that takes a toll while Machado plays almost every game and that takes its toll too. Then there are always future injuries that could be very serious in either one. It's best not to look to far ahead. Also making character a concern is not a good idea either without being fully informed . That's why we are seeing reports now that the Yankees are doing some kind of investigation of Machado's background. They want to get into his head as much as possible and do their best to find out what makes him tick. I'd say thats wise given the amount you could invest in him . Just hope we have a legit shot at either one and that they produce very well and stay healthy enough to propel the Sox into a World Series or 2.

It may drag out anyway. Boras usually does this to let teams try to free up payroll space. Like if the Cubs trade Bryant or the Yankees get rid of a contract or 2 .They may not be in the hunt now but they could be later. Some teams could still have power struggles in their front offices on whether or not to get involved. so waiting gives time to change minds. We are seeing some signs already that the market might be weak for him. Certainly the expected contract might have something to do with that with the usual high spenders either already having good rosters with little payroll space needing maybe to only reinforce their rosters rather than add a whale. There will be plenty of misinformation out there in the next 90 days and Boras has his own ways to manipulate the market with misinformation and his vision of how truly special Harper is. So to answer your question , no I don't think if it drags past the New Year its not a sign of a weaker market. It's more just Boras being Boras.

I said $400M rather than $40M AAV without the laughed at part. The market will ultimately dictate if $400M is enough even if its 10 or 12 years. Either way he beats the highest AAV in the majors right now. If everyone but the Phillies balks at $400M then it's the Phillies. If even the Phillies balk at $400M then it will be less but I still think that's the price Boras is eyeing.

You do know Machado is only 4 months older than Harper right ?

I think so. $400M might be the magic mark he's going for, He'll ask for more than that ,then settle at $400M. Of course it could be less too but Phillies might just be crazy enough to offer that, not sure the Sox are. Machado might cost less so the Sox will have to decide just how much Harper might mean in extra revenue compared to Machado and who will stay with them longer with regards to opt outs.

I have a bit of an issue with you capitalizing EXACTLY maybe save the" multiple" part of the quote . That really doesn't make it EXACTLY then does it? You contradict yourself all in one sentence. I remember it as him saying prospect for prospect which means one for one. Now, since this seems to be the bone of contention between us , I have been trying to find the EXACT quote by listening to podcasts and googling but for now I can't find it. I will continue to look and if I find that you are correct I will say so. As for the Cubs /Sox trade I know I was one of those who thought it was very possible and even said they matched up perfectly and I am sure if you do the research you can find my posts about it. In the meantime I have my own searching to do with the Hahn quote.

I'm seeing his name bandied about a lot as the type of guy the Sox should be going after . I totally disagree. He not all that young . He will turn 28 June 17. He is not all that healthy. He's had a lot of shoulder problems in the past and some last season and throws a lot of sliders. Just the same kind of complaints we've seen about Corbin. Seems like a lot of Japanese pitcher break down once they reach the states or a season or 2 after, Key points from the dodgerdigest article. Kikuchi’s posting is somewhat poorly timed, as he took a step back in 2018. His average fastball velocity backed off from 92.3 mph to 91.5 mph. His strikeout rate dropped over 6% to a more pedestrian (but still good for NPB) rate of 23.4%. Thanks to an increase in ground ball rate his ERA remained in the low 3s in the face of a potentially juiced baseball. Overall, not terrible, but not matching the potential he showed the year before. Kikuchi’s velocity drop did not necessarily come without warning. He missed most of May with a mysterious case of “shoulder tightness.” The specific cause of the tightness was never really clarified (at least on English-language NPB websites). In the starts after his return, he struggled to hold his velocity throughout outings, sitting at about 93 in the early innings and fading towards 90 by the end of those stints. In the later months of the season the velocity returned, but the strikeouts never really followed. The shoulder scare raises questions about Kikuchi’s durability. He made it through 2017 in good shape, but he has missed significant time in several other seasons. His shoulder was a concern in 2013, he missed time with finger blisters in 2014, and some of 2016 due to a “right side” injury. He missed the first few years after he was drafted with even more injury trouble. Another look at the previous video clips shows a high-effort delivery, adding to potential health concerns.

They don't need to pick one of the 2 . They go after both and sign whoever agrees to sign with us, then break off negotiations with the other.

I'm not ignoring quality. You have the highest upside for Senzel while ignoring the upside for the others calling them HUGE busts potentially. My scenario is seeing the upside of all of them. I just want to wait til we really know what we have. There will always be 3rd basemen available. Yes Senzel looks great but Cease could be also and the others , we just don't know at this point. Just rather take my chances that Cease will be at least the equal of Senzel going forward while hoping the other 5 you mentioned can provide some depth. Besides with both in rebuild mode that trade is highly unlikely. Hahn has not given any indication that he would trade multiple prospects for 1 prospect.

I could have worded it better but once you saw .330 it should have have tipped you off that when I said " hurt last year" , meaning he was hurt in 2018 .The "before" meaning prior to 2018 (2017) he hit .330.

Did you mean to say "if they can't land a big fish instead of "can" because you only pull the reins back in a plan C if you can't land one of the big fish. If you land the big fish then you almost have to continue getting more free agents because getting that big fish moves the timeline for the rebuild up especially if them landing the big fish comes with a fairly early opt out.

I think both of you are quality posters but SS2K5 wants to win like the rest of us. He wouldn't be here otherwise posting his opinions on the best course the rebuild can take if he didn't want to see the Sox win. Now he might not take the losing as badly as some people do but a team you love that wins is a team you love even more. Even he probably can't deny that.

Yea I think he will too , at least I hope so. Sometimes its not that hard. Last year the only 2 FA I picked picked were Moustaskas because he was super cheap w a draft pick attached to him and JD Martinez. If remember the threads about Moose well because even others advocating for him besides me were throwing out 3/4yrs $35/40M and I kept saying wait he's not going to cost that much. But most here didn't want to sign any FA because it was too early in the rebuild. Martinez ended up with a career year and KC traded Moose for some decent talent. The draft pick we would have ended up losing was Steele Walker and I think what KC got in return was better . Of course in fairness that remains to be seen. Hahn could've got different players for Moose better or worse and Walker has a long way to go to prove himself.

1st of all your stats are off , not by much but stats are the easiest thing to get accurate. LaRoche hit .259 not .277 . 277 was his BABIP 2nd.Actually if you were to revisit that thread after the trade a lot of us foresaw it being a bad move. He couldn't hit lefties any more and yet the Sox kept hitting him against lefties. Throw in that we were already leery of a LH guy named Adam from the NL .

And before Avi was hurt last year he hit .330 like actually in the big leagues not as a highly ranked minor league guy.

Exactly. Mostly for the reasons I outlined.

Any time you trade 3 prospects for 1 prospect that means you are risking 3 future major leaguers against one. If the one fizzles or gets hurt and the 3 become good its becomes a terrible trade worst case scenario. Best case is you don't make the trade and get 3 very good major leaguers instead of 1. There is strength in numbers.

Hahn is not going to trade prospects for only 2 years of control. I can see a prospect for prospect trade but prospects will be given every chance to develop into core pieces. Right now we can buy whoever we want without prospects being the currency. Sign some FA's to 1/2/3 maybe even a 4 yr deal depending on position and they can either be used to win or traded to make room for the prospects. That way payroll may start out high but get lower when the prospects fill in . If we trade the FA's down the road they can be used to fill gaps on the 25 or get more prospects and free up payroll for guys in arbitration years. and keep the window open for a longer period of time.

Admittedly I m one of his biggest advocates. If we gathered up all the Avi sucks posts before he hit .330 and then combined them with all the non tender Avi posts after this year we could probably come up with 500 posts. Hell ,even in my grandiose vision of the Sox contending this year I had the Sox trading Abreu and non tendering Avi to free up salary to sign FA's to put around either Harper or Machado,even though I can envision AVi doing JD Martinez type things (see my post at the top of this page). Now I know Avi doing JD Martinez type things is a long shot but so was anyone thinking he could hit .330. I'm really hoping to hear that Avi worked with the same guys who changed JDM's swing and approach some time this off season.

Could be a blessing in disguise.

Wha'ts your problem with it ?

Still need to hang onto our prospects. Normally you would use free agency to supplement the draft picks who become part of the core. This year perhaps makes it the other way around. If we land Machado /Harper/Eloy it moves the competitive window up and perhaps we add more free agents , maybe even enough to become fairly competitive right away given the right set of circumstances ( progress by Moncado,Gio, Rey and Cleveland downsizing a bit). If we become competitive right away that gives our prospects still in the minors another year of development. If the FA pieces we put around H/M have 1/2/3 yr deals they can be traded in any year of their deal or kept for purposes of winning. The longer we keep productive FA agents the longer we have to let Robert , Madrigal, Dunning , Cease, Sheets , Rutherford , Gonzales etc. to become finished products and also allowed Kopech Burger to heal. We can work the prospects into the 25 man roster when the time is right and to replace the FA's we end up trading off thus cutting payroll and staying competitive while allowing arb raises to the older successful prospects if Moncada and company show improvement. I know it's backwards from the usual process but it can actually work out better and keep the window open longer.