CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:18 PM) Here are your replies from the trade thread. Maybe I can read into some that you aren't excited about Davidson, but I don't see anything about the loss of Reed, or that he is more valuable than Davidson. There really isn't much of a commitment from you on the trade one way or another. I left out the posts about other things. The first post is in relation to how everyone likes the trade. Are you saying the thread to which Dick is referring to when he said he hated the trade, he didn't actually say he hated the trade ? Say it aint' so. So now he covers his ass by saying it was in a thread before spring training started because when it 1st happened he said he didn't have the facts . How convenient. So you do all that research and now it's another thread where you'd have to do a whole lotta more research to prove he didn't say what he says he said without even knowing the threads topic. All without the search feature ever working on this site.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) Oh so you're the reason we got all these problems. Why am I not surprised? I am going to start a thread and say "Is it Kyyle's fault that the Sox have had as many problems as they did and couldn't make any trades and why they don't spend any money and the minor leagues are so bad?" Don't forget the bullpen sucks too unless that's under the heading of no spending money.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 02:39 PM) Right - that's what I saying. To look at WAR and say "WAR says this guy's better but I totally wouldn't trade for them" would be a misunderstanding of what WAR is supposed to do. That's what I was trying to explain. There are all kinds of other things that go into projecting a player and deciding how to build a team. We're on the same page at least you don't say sabermetrics are the end all be all. It just seems WAR and saber stats will be misused for many years without the general media people and most people in general having advanced knowledge on how they work.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 02:30 PM) And you've found the crux of the entire situation. This is why you can't just say "Would you rather have Donaldson or Abreu?" Both players have the same value, and they have star power and both have missed a bit of time (meaning both could easily be 4.5-5 WAR players at this point) but WAR is not meant to transplant players, it's meant to provide some sort of baseline value for these players. Given what the Sox offense looks like, and the fact that they have a viable option at 3B in Gillaspie, I'd obviously much rather have Abreu, but ask Oakland, with Moss hanging around 1B for them, who they'd rather have and they'd certainly tell you Donaldson. Ask the Cubs who they'd rather have. Conversely, ask the Nationals or Twins or Rangers who they'd rather have, and they'd assuredly tell you Abreu. Chicks dig the long ball. I dig chicks. Therefore I dig Abreu. Nutshell.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) Advanced statistics make baseball better. They help to eliminate gut reactions and misguided assumptions over small sample sizes. It helps us to value different aspects of the game properly. Bill James always says that a statistic is no good if it doesn't surprise you. That's because a given statistic is supposed to tell you something you don't already know. We know Abreu is good. We know he's been phenomenal at the plate. We don't know how to properly value his contributions in comparison with other players that play other positions. To ask whether, based on this season's WAR, you'd trade for someone, is a misuse. It's not a projection - it's a measure. WAR is a way to look at players' contributions and separate them from context so you can make valid comparisons. A guy like Donaldson plays different competition, in different places, with different people batting around him, and at a different position. WAR is a way to look back and disentangle all those confounding factors. When I'm deciding between Abreu and Donaldson, there are several concerns for both players. Abreu, being new, has considerable upside that we just don't know about yet. Could he play even better than this? There's reason to believe so. However, given his newness to the league, maybe he could get dramatically worse. Look at the way Yoenis Cespedes's production fell off after his first year. At 27, Abreu can't punt too many years solving his sophomore slump. He also plays first base, meaning a down year at the plate means he'll be simply valueless. Donaldson plays a more valuable position and defends it extremely well - we have three years of sample size to back up his defense. His year last year, with a 7.7 WAR, is probably better than any year Abreu will ever have. However, he is a year older than Abreu. He's also a guy who wasn't worth a s*** until he was about 27. While "fluke" might not be the right word, there is reason to step back when a guy blooms this late and wonder what's going on. He was never an impressive upper-level MiLB player until he was 26 over 50-some games in AAA. Seems like a candidate for regression, if not a guy who might be thriving only under a particular coach or whatever is going on. So no, I wouldn't pull of that particular deal, money aside. We effectively have a prospect in Abreu, which I think makes him worth the gamble that his position or lack of experience could make us lose the deal. Good explanation as usual from you educated folks But many of the points you make can be made without the advanced stats. Their ages ,the late blooming,standard MILB numbers, Abreu's 1st year, sophomores slumps etc are all part of baseball past stats and folklore. Besides Abreu's near the best at his position now so it's probably a bad example of trading Abreu for Donaldson and much more useful for trading more similar players. Besides no stat can predict the future . I probably toot my own horn too much but I've had debates on here about choosing one player over another in the off season for certain trade possibilities and kept those debates in my mind while looking at the production of the players involved over the next few years and I'm usually right .

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:36 PM) This x100000 Sox arent even done with that. One more starter and a couple more bats and then you can address the bullpen. I think they can do it with one quality SP and 1 more bat that is if Avi can put up some good stats next year. Would have to be a LH guy to replace Dunn's .850 OPS against righties or a lesser OPS but still productive offensively and good defensively with a rotating DH from a deep bench. No easy task. I see too may people using Rodon's name for the rotation and that is not a viable option for next year.Can't expect a guy just drafted to come in and be your 3rd or 4th starter a year after being drafted. So someone besides Rodon.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:40 PM) What are his chances at AL MVP? Abreu or Donaldson ? I think Abreu gets way more votes than Donaldson but that's strictly subjective voting and the A's are a much better "team" with decent players at a few more positions than the Sox. Gaudy offensive numbers help but it usually goes to a guy on a winner. Therefore Abreu's chances for MVP are slim to none.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) This is the argument that gets me. "Rebuilding, rebuilding, rebuilding." WTF does that mean? To you it seems to mean -- put a crappy bullpen out there because you don't have a better plan -- then when the crappy bullpen sinks the season, tell the fans "we were just rebuilding; thanks for spending your good money coming to our games; we didn't really plan on contending this year anyway so it doesn't really matter that our bullpen stinks!!" I'm confident that's NOT what the Sox brass intended. Instead, they had a plan, it was just a BAD PLAN. It was also a plan that undervalued the difference that a good bullpen can make on a team's W-L record. For both of those reasons, Rick Hahn deserves considerable criticism. It's NO DEFENSE for Hahn to say "rebuilding." And, in fact, if we were able to get Rick Hahn to answer this question honestly, I bet he would agree that he messed up the bullpen this season. I just hope he learns his lesson. The plans was ,and you seem to be in the minority here, to build a solid core of young position players and starting pitchers . Players that do not usually fluctuate in performance as much as bullpen pieces do and to have enough money left over to cross that bullpen bridge when they got to that point of having that core in place. How long will it have been once the Cubs or Astro's or the Pirates or the Royal get to the playoffs ? How long has it been since the A's became winners for the last few years. Didn't you use the Indian's and Royals as an example of better bullpens ? Do you think they are going to make the playoffs ? Do you think they have a chance to win the World Series this year ? Yes the bullpen was not at the top of the list of priorities. Position players and starting pitching will always be given more priority. When you can come up with a formula for how to determine which bullpen pieces to acquire I will say a bullpen should be a priority. Until then you and Greg and Dick enjoy your w(h)ine.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 11:45 AM) Of course it's a flawed statistic, but no statistic is perfect. It's also difficult to just assume that teams are going to remain the same record wise. The Sox I think would be - they could simply move Gillaspie over to 1B and they'd be sitting right around their same mark - but the A's then have to do something with Moss or Abreu and find a 3B, which cuts 5 positional runs from either's value due to the positional adjustment made in WAR. That's the problem with those stats. They are based on measures and probabilities and linear weights and measures and God knows what else a simpleton like me can't nor doesn't want to take the time to try and understand without going back to college or taking night classes. The beauty of ERA and batting averages and RBI's and Slugging and OBP is that the math for calculating those things is relatively simple. Anyone with an 8th grade education can follow it. They are part of the reason why baseball was America's game. I understand that the game is no longer the simple pleasure it once was . But it is still the same game on the field with a DH . But is no longer simple to evaluate a player . It has gone the way of big business and over analization to the point of reams and reams of paper pushing.It makes the guys with the computers instant baseball experts wihthout ever having stepped foot on the field or been in the trenches . For this my heart break a little.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 12:28 PM) In hindsight, yes. In hindsight many guys sucked this year. We can't go back and retroactively cut the 10 guys on this team who have underperformed either. But in terms of a building a baseball team, that is a move you make every, single time, no matter what hindsight you apply here. Dick doesn't use hindsight he clearly stated his plan to contend every year and his opposition to rebuilding all along. Didn't you know that ?

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 11:59 AM) I agree with all of this. All the acquired pieces are here on 1 year deals. By design. Stop making sense. A GM dealing with the media every day cannot just come out and say I think we have every piece we need to win the World Series this year and especially can't say "we have no chance this year" .The political thing he must say is " I like our team. I think we have improved and are working on a goal we feel will put us in contention for many years to come. We have a young exciting team and we're going to get much better sooner rather than later."

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 12:07 PM) I actually wanted them to keep a $538k pitcher. I don't know what you are on to come up with the other stuff, although I'm sure you are now glad the Sox spent some money on Abreu. And they bid 9 figures on Tanaka. They have plenty of money. You also wanted to sign a few other pitchers to mega year deals. What I am "on" is your refusal to state how you would have made the Sox a winner this year and for years to come. You can't just say making better decisions on the bullpen gives us a contender without having a plan to start with . Don't try going on the attack against me. I know your M.O. Of course they have plenty of money and they didn't spend all of it this year because they are rebuilding rebuilding rebuilding. What part of that do you not understand ? You must be on something if you can't comprehend .What they don't have is unlimited resources to spend on the most unpredictable way there is in baseball to make the right choices besides the draft and that is the bullpen. The payroll will be at its max ,whatever that is when, the Sox decide they need a major piece to put them over the top. Otherwise it can't be sustained for long that way in this market.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 11:40 AM) Like I was saying, if Hahn didn't make the Reed /Davidson trade, the White Sox would probably be within 2 games of the 2nd wild card, with a head to head coming up in Toronto. I have taken a stand and don't change my stance with the wind. He weakened the bullpen with that trade and didn't strengthen anything except non Charlotte Knights IL pitchers' k-rates. OK so your stance is contend every year right ? Hand out big contracts, sign free agents, pay a lot for more established bullpen pieces. So basically spend like a drunken sailor in the Phillipines ? Somehow sign a big TV contract have no injuries, every pot luck signee produces beyond expectations, fans are flocking to the Cell. I can get behind that philosophy only it doesn't work that way with our current owner or being the 2nd most popular team in a 2 team city.. Trade Reinsdorf for Mark Cuban and I'm behind you 100 %.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 11:27 AM) You can rebuild and contend at the same time. The two are not mutually exclusive. Many on this board thought, going into the season, that the Sox would be around .500. Which puts you into contention for the playoffs (if not the World Series) in today's MLB. Rick Hahn didn't intentionally build a bad bullpen, or completely ignore the pen on the idea that it wasn't worth doing anything until the team was ready to "contend." He did, however, have a very bad plan, and undervalued the importance of a good pen, and he deserves criticism on both counts, since with a better plan, and a better pen, the 2014 White Sox would be vying for first place in the AL Central, not to mention a wild card slot. I think these points are undeniable. They pretty much are mutually exclusive unless you have great attendance, a huge TV contract, a deep farm system, a deep pockets owner willing to spend anything it takes to contend, lack of injuries, and a hit or two on your wishful thinking signees . Which of these do the Sox have? Zilch , zip, nada, goose egg. That's 6 things a team usually needs to compete .Even getting a few of them and you compete.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) This is about the bullpen. My thoughts on how to build a winner are all throughout Soxtalk. Look them up. Some don't appear like they are any good. Some are pure genius. But generally, pitching wins. I don't like the free agents this year, they are either going to cost a ton or really suck. That's why I wanted the Sox to look at them last season. Maybe that was dumb too. They need a starter. The bullpen is in shambles and they need a LH bat. Someone had an idea yesterday about VMart or Mourneau. I'm leery of VMart and don't think he'll leave Detroit anyway, but Mourneau is intriquing. His numbers are really good this season and his home/road splits are pretty even. His price tag shouldn't be too much. No way I would trade Ramirez unless blown away. Hahn is crafting his pitching staff around being groundball pitchers, and with Beckham out the door losing Ramirez would put a hurt on the pitching staff. If they both are gone next season, it may not always seem obvious but there are DPs turned by these guys that aren't turned by others.. And the bullpen is wide open. The Sox will also need a catcher, but there is Russell Martin and a ton of crap. Listening to Hahn the other day, I have a feeling at least one of Sanchez, Micah Johnson , Semien will not be White Sox property in 2015. I have mentioned Semien as a guy I would use like Tony Phillips earlier in his career where he can play several positions. Everyone but Sale, Q and Abreu would be available. Rodon would also be unavailable but he can't be traded anyway. It really isn't about the bullpen.it's about contending this year since you've been arguing that with a bullpen " I coulda been a contenda, instead of a bum , which is what I am". But at least you gave me some clue on your thoughts but not the main one I asked for. Build for a contender every year or build a strong young core ( which hardly ever includes bullpen pieces)? Both ? Can't really do both since now it takes mega contracts to keep core intact or fill holes you missed. So I don't actually know your personal philosophy except that you are condemning Hahn for not making the right decisions to build a bullpen for CONTENDING THIS YEAR. Also it's more of a state of the union your giving me with a few exceptions for a few guys . But I also thought a free agent ,specifically Ellsbury should've been signed since I value above avg hit tool and speed and defense for outfielders more than I do power ,but this team just can't compete signing free agents like him with the Yankees . And lo and behold that guy who talked about VMart and Morneau was me in my initial stages of looking for LH bats to acquire. I still think you're a contrarian ( I'm being nice) then anything else but you,in your 3rd or 4th attempt, won't take a stand one way or another on a philosophy. I can only conclude you want to try to contend every year and that's fine. But I'd like to hear it from you. Trust me ,I like to contend every year too but its nearly impossible in the day and age of mega contracts that cripple teams without deep pocket owners so I don't argue for a great bullpen in what should've been a rebuilding year.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) 1B is far and away the least important position. No position compares to it. Since 2000, there has only been one season in which a 1B has contributed a full win above average (it's harder for me to access the WAR value). That was Pujols in 2007. That defensive season was more than twice as valuable than the next closer in those 15 years. Out of all the 1B players to play a qualifying amount since 2000, only 25 times has a 1B had a season in which their defensive contribution was above the average player (of any position). They don't pull this stuff out of thin air. Each play is evaluated for its difficulty and its consequence. Making a very difficult play adds to your defensive value, especially if that play is likely to pay dividends in terms of saving runs. 1B are just not tested defensively nearly as often as any other position and the plays they make tend to be of little consequence. They never throw - that's a big deal. 1B rarely have to make defensive plays in which they throw; that's the big difference between them and a 3B (that, and the amount of RH vs LH hitters). Another way to think about it - how many players are good at a position that isn't 1B but would be bad at 1B? While not ideal, I'd argue that Adam Eaton would be fine at 1B. That's because he's a baseball player who knows how to catch throws. It's nice to have a tall guy, but that's okay because he'd make up for it by actually being mobile. The average CF, SS, or C is going to be far better at 1B than any 1B would be at those positions. It's just that now WAR is being viewed by the media and the casual and even a somewhat knowledgeable fan like me who isn't saber smart as the next new thing when it comes to determining who is better or more valuable . Maybe that's the problem If you think Donaldson is just as valuable as Abreu or more so would you trade them for each other ? I wouldn't because elite offense no matter the position you play is much harder to find than elite defense at a premium position.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) Offensive value is measured in terms of "runs created" and defensive value is measured in terms of "runs saved" and the two values carry equal weight. A player who creates 40 offensive runs and saves 0 defensive runs is equal in value to a player who creates 20 offensive runs and saves 20 defensive runs. Yes but we also know that runs created in baseball is a lot easier to understand or quantify then runs saved on defense. If Abreu was a butcher at 1st he'd save a lot less runs but because it isn't a premium position he doesn't get as much credit as other infielders or OF's do for using their speed in things like range. Basically he gets no points for playing a position that isn't deemed as important yet he get's more fielding chances and chances to make mistakes than other positions Now we all know catching perfect throws to 1st isn't that hard so I understand it to a degree. The formula in general works but not if you consider many think elite offense is more important and I am a huge advocate of good defense but it just seems like he's penalized for being a typical large 1st baseman who isn't fast. The position evolved that way and playing it well shouldn't be a detriment to a stat like WAR . Of course I'm not a saber guy and I often get lost when I hear explanations of these things because it seems like you need some knowledge of advanced math to understand some of these things .

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 10:17 AM) Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon all play semi-premium to premium defensive positions and they play it incredibly well while being fairly to very productive hitters to boot. It's not flawed whatsoever. In theory, yes, the White Sox are only 4 games better. Much of that depends upon context, which WAR removes from the equation. Still, I feel the difference between 54-58 and 50-62 is incredibly signficant. I think the question is more like "is good defense at a premium position just as important in the eyes of WAR as elite offensive production is" ? Is the equation equally balanced when some people might think elite production in the lineup batting 3rd or 4th is more important than playing elite defense at a prime position. Why should any player's WAR be less when they play a position that it isn't necessary to have speed or not necessary when you're a big man crushing the ball. Seems that premium position players get more perks for contributing in all areas when baseball wasn't built for that at some positions.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) Go back to the thread with the trade. You will see I am not criticizing after the fact. So that's all you got ? Your stance on one trade ? I didn't ask for that . I asked for a stance on how to build the Sox into a winner. 2 responses no answer on that so you're leaving me to assume that playing devils advocate or being a contrarian is your thing . Isn't that called trolling ?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) Addison Reed makes 538k this year. About 1/6th what they pay Beli and 1/8 what they paid Downs. I thought that trade was dumb from the start. It's documented. I get on people for getting on Ventura after the fact. Anyone who really thinks Addison Reed doesn't help this team is just fooling themselves, just like they are fooling themselves if they think Matt Davidson is going to develop into a middle of the order major league bat. 2nd guessing mangers is as old as baseball itself whether its before or after the fact. In the history of the game it's usually after the fact since the internet is a more recent development and before that it was done after the fact in newspapers and sportstalk radio. Some here make good points some do not, But again please tell me your opinions of how you think Hahn should be developing his roster because you are criticizing after the fact as well . Your thing is arguing the stances people take on various topics. For once say what your stance is how to turn this team around ( not just one trade) so people can find your old posts and find your faults , your hits and misses ,the way you do it to others.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 09:38 AM) LOL, I like Moises, but he's definitely a guy you bring along slowly. Acting as the 4th outfielder for the near and intermediate future is a perfect role for him, and if he plays himself into more plate appearances, that's not a bad thing. Pretty much, but I think he has played himself into getting more PA's and is in dire need of getting them. As far as being a lottery ticket or making a name for himself ( a point you didn't make) that point is moot since the for the vast majority of young players that is the case. Guys with 5 tools should be given more chances than he has had to succeed. They are just too rare to vanish into baseball purgatory.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) Still not as bad as Darin Erstad hitting 2nd on Opening Day for a team coming off a 90 win season, even if he did hit a 2 run homer. I view yours and Kalapse posts as support

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) Right now he is worth hanging on to, he costs very little and has some upside. If there is something better that comes along then you take that into account, but much like bullpen bingo, he is like a lottery ticket that could pay off. I keep thinking about that term "lottery ticket" . If you're looking for the big payout, the odds are probably over 1,000,000 to 1. With baseball players, given the right development and luck it's closer to 1000 to 1 that you get a big payoff if you're choosing from say AA to major league players going from a nobody to a very good player for a few years in the Major Leagues . Less than that if you already have advanced tools and even less when you get the playing time needed. But I understand the point

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 08:43 AM) That's why, if you think you have a shot at winning, you don't trade Addison Reed for Josh Fields Jr. People had no problem and still don't with the Sox getting rid of him. Yet now the bullpen sucks because Nate Jones and Matt Lindstrom, yes the same Matt Lindstrom some where doing cartwheels about when they found out he was hurt and would no longer be closing, aren't there. If Jones and Lindstrom were both healthy, and really, I don't know how in the world anyone can assume a pitching staff won't suffer numerous injuries, the Sox bullpen would still suck. Hahn knew it in spring training, but it was too late. You know DA, you get on a lot of people about 2nd guessing Robin Ventura yet here you are 2nd guessing Hahn and the people who are defending Hahn . All of a sudden you think Hahn should've treated this year like a contending year. So I hope you can make it clear for me what you think Hahn should have done from the beginning. Should he treat every year as a contending year spend a lot of money , keep the payroll high, give out huge long term contracts to just a few individuals 4? 5? 6 OR MORE ? Try to establish a core of young players, build slowly ? Attempt to do both at the same time? At least be consistent in your devil's advocates posts or trolling as some prefer to call it.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 07:20 AM) I definitely agree with the bolded part. I don't see the Sox using Sierra as an everyday outfielder, but in using him as a 4th outfielder and possibly getting him ABs as the right handed part of a DH platoon (or more likely Tank as the DH and Sierra in the OF in those games), they could get him 250-300 PAs over the season. If he excels and forces himself into more playing time, well that's a good problem to have. So what about all those AB's Beckham and Tank and De Aza got the last few years ? The Sox weren't trying to make the playoffs ? Gillaspie and Keppinger last year ? I could probably name a lot more players too if I had to look up lousy players getting 400 AB's on terrible, mediocre or playoff teams since no matter how often teams try to make the playoffs they often fail. I want to see him get at least 400 AB's for once in his life. One lousy chance since he is 25 and running out of those chances. But what you say makes sense , there's just no guarantee he ever gets the chance to prove himself with the Sox. I'd probably be good with him as the 4th outfielder but right now he's like 5th and that won't get better with Avi coming back.