I have a hard time speaking with total confidence on what’s happening in Illinois right now. I am disappointed in the growth in cases. Despite significant increases in testing, the positivity rate has increased, along with daily case counts. It is growing, it is.
But hospitalization since since its low point in July 4th is, with today’s numbers, up just 1% 2 weeks later. That’s 3 weeks after the rise began and a bit more that that with reopening to phase 4.
And despite not having tracers truly up and ready, I’ve found the DPHs at city, county, state level to be strangely confident.
My one hunch is IL may be much better at actually testing problem spots. That by mid June it was very good at knowing how at risk population was (front line, etc) but missing some big community hot spots.
Their mobile testing may very well be helping uncover better what was already there.
Thats a hunch at least. Perhaps testing is now better aligning positives to previous hospitalization trends.