bmags

yeah, was going to say I had it a few weeks ago. I was pretty impressed but not fun for a kid I'd imagine. Hope saliva tests become more available by fall.

so yeah i just found this. I thought when the grant money was released in early june this process would be much faster: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-cook-county-contact-tracing-20200611-twzam6xpa5fctjg6pyhog7qid4-story.html I can't do that math, if 400 was needed for 60% of cases in the fall...that's what 4% of cases are being traced currently?

eh, as someone who was very negative on negotiations, THIS is what final negotiations look like. Yesterday was the first real movement from owners, players take it back to get more, owners say No way, the worst we'll do is X, then it signs. If the owners then propose 54 games tomorrow, then we're back to hell zone.

nice follow-up day, still going strong. No uptick from protestors yet. 25500 tests, 589 positives. slightly above yesterday with 5k fewer tests, but still just a 2.3% positive.

yep

I’m still very concerned about bars, night clubs and churches even with masks. The drinking and dancing makes night clubs seem impossible especially on tracing. Id prefer they stick with the outdoor focus through sept.

thank ze heavens. At this rate they are going to need to make a bubble in illinois to play in though. Or alaska.

my biggest concern is that because it skewed so young many may be the prototype for asymptomatic carriers. If they haven't get tested they wouldn't show up but people they infect may appear in the next 15 days. That's why I was glad to see a big testing spike today as it had started to decline and my guess is that would be due to just population wanting the test going down. https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjUwNjEwN2QtYmJkYS00MTZmLTg4YjMtZGRkMzEzMmFmYjg4IiwidCI6IjcwMzZjZGE5LTA2MmQtNDE1MS04MTQ0LTk3ZGRjNTZlNzAyNyJ9 Also I got my answer. The previous day always shows up as 1 in the dashboard. However, Monday shows only 34 cases in Chicago, the only mondays I found that was lower than the sunday reports. So it's not just illinois not seeing a hot spot, Chicago is seeing massive decline now a full 2 weeks post protests. That is probably the bigger thing to hang its hats on and I know NYC is the same.

Im wary to get too excited but 30 k tests today and only 560 new cases. 1.8% positive

I truly don't know where you get your charts, but https://www.mpg.de/14915504/0605-defo-137749-international-death-counts-show-peaks-of-the-pandemic In no way could this find that Sweden is below trend: See the actual excess death chart from that research: Also when the NYT looked at excess deaths and compared them to reported covid deaths, it found Sweden had an additional 800 deaths in the first two months. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html Finland had 100. Finland has half the people...so that doesn't track. Lastly EUROMOMO tracking excess mortality across european nations. These track the z-scores: sweden vs. finland.

Good stuff in here from a story in the WSJ on catching COVID and what has started to emerge as consensus: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactly-do-you-catch-covid-19-there-is-a-growing-consensus-11592317650 South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam et al showed that lockdowns are not the only effective means to suppress the virus. But they are when you don't have adequate testing, tracing, and precautions in place in the public such as masks and reducing the three Cs Japan came up with: closed spaces, crowded spaces, and close contact.

Gotta admit...I'm a little confused. You were just stating that prioritizing protecting the long term care facilities while letting the rest population move on as normal would save twice as many lives but now you are showing that a good example case of that and it ... didn't perform better. And it's mobility was lower, you used google, but apple does a better breakdown of how travel breaks down - see Stockholm. Transit and walking fall to levels similar but not equal to Paris - but very similar to say, Atlanta (georgia has less deaths per million though that isn't a good indicator). You also continue to operate under this idea that an equal amount of virus entered each country on the same day, and so you can just compare each one and voila. There is a reason people compare Sweden to its actual neighbors in Norway/denmark/Finland. They operate similarly and have similar geography. NYC I think did a poor job, but cities like new york, chicago, boston, DC etc that are major international travel hubs didn't have the benefit of a manageable number of cases before they were flooded. Each decision was affecting thousands and their death rate. But yeah, I kinda thought "if we prioritized our elderly and let everyone else live as normal" we would do better, not "worse but only 50k more people dead worse". COVID definitely is not clean growth. It's not each person infects two people. It's 50 people infect no one and 5 infect 40 themselves. But it's growth is serious and if you let it run unchecked in the broader population, it will get into LT Care facilities as the UK and sweden found out.

That’s an editorial from the Wall Street journal. But that’s a pretty sweet take. That’s what Sweden did, it didn’t work. And that’s even thought their population voluntarily locked down. Is lockdown the most effective containment strategy? No, there’s too many holes in who works. But when it launched in March it was the correct move while they figured out how this behaved. You don’t wait and see.

Also was interested in seeing ronaldo guzman.

This is such a horsecrap take. It is 100% the owners fault that rather than choose a guy to grow the game, they chose a guy to keep their costs lowest, but manfreds job is to look out for the best interests of the owners and convince them of their best interest, he’s failing at that. Miserably.

Chicago data does have a sunday dropoff but 6/15 was a monday which is usually a big bump.

Um, yeah, there will be a mixture of things. But going to be hard to get much better than the mixture of masks + handwashing + temperature screenings unless they can have universal saliva testing daily at schools. It's very, very unlikely.

I've never used the chicago dashboard... https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjUwNjEwN2QtYmJkYS00MTZmLTg4YjMtZGRkMzEzMmFmYjg4IiwidCI6IjcwMzZjZGE5LTA2MmQtNDE1MS04MTQ0LTk3ZGRjNTZlNzAyNyJ9 What are the odds it is a data entry error that there was only 1 case in chicago yesterday? 99%? Would love to know accuracy of that, appears to have dropped to nothing in the last few days, under 100.

It will keep flu transmission down in the fall/winter, and in addition, there has been evidence of children having lower viral loads and thus transmission. But regardless, kids are not good at reporting their own symptoms and it would take likely cases out. It's a good idea. They don't allow visitors with temps into hospitals with a temp check, but I guess they shouldn't do that because it wouldn't capture all.

I do not wear a mask for exercise and likely would not have had any either. I have them on me in case of an emergency. Depends as you said on how much space you think you can give yourself and if you are walking consistently near the same people.

I would say mask wearing in northeast illinois has been very good. No, people don't wear them outside if they think they can avoid being close to anyone. But I can't remember the last place I went indoors where people didn't all have masks on since at least April. And if that's the case, there is no shortage anymore. In singapore they passed out masks. It is part of the policy here now, so have them easily available. Teach people about toilet paper and paper towl masks.

I am not sure we know as much about k-12 as we should. Israel had issues with transmission after opening up, but the nordic countries did have reported it no uptick since schools reopened. To be honest, I think they have to re-open generally and have school by school decisions, and take kids temps. The effects on education from the lockdowns appear significant and negative. Unless there is evidence it is a significant driver, tie should go to reopening.

Interestingly in Japan they have not been a major driver. They believe that because so few people speak on the trains, along with universal mask wearing, much of the effects are diminished. This is also likely why planes have not been much of a place of transmission despite what you would expect - though they have much better filtration than an average bus. Illinois should promote cta being all quiet cars for public health and encourage people not to talk.

My guess - they will defer to the local depts. of public health.

but you can see his concern for some regions where the percent change has been 0 (they also happen to be about 1% positive total). If those go up to 2% positive, they would fail to meet the requirement.