bmags

Mmm hmm because we are in a perpetual state of pandemic and all of our normal incentives apply. Let's say our wishes are granted and Remdesivir is actually an effective drug. It can be applied at regular doctors offices and keeps people from dying and lessens need to stay at hospitals. Do you think Gilead is going to be able to say "wellp, we are the only providers, we get to charge whatever we want because we have a patent, and this is how things normally go" Because I think it's pretty clear there will be enormous pressure by ...the entire world to provide this at as accessible a cost as possible. I don't know gilead's entire portfolio, but it is very likely to be in Gilead's best interest to do so. 1) As long as this pandemic is as is, elective surgeries and visits to doctors have decreased. With less visits, less opportunity for uncovering and prescribing a host of options. 2) As long as this pandemic is as is, insurance is going to have huge negative pressure with all of the additional ICU and hospital stays causing massive strain on their payouts. This will fall back on drug manufacturers on prices paid or larger copays charged and then... 3) As long as is this pandemic is as is, there will be huge economic fallout causing job loss, (in US) lack of insurance and a host of externalities that reduce purchasing power specifically to a gilead And then on top of that, there will be a huge push for governments globally to get access to the drug. With economies shut down and people dying by the thousands, there will be huge pressure to gilead to provide the govt close to cost as any number of governments may decide not to respect IP law and take the risks - because it's extraordinary circumstances right now. Kind of a once in a century pandemic type thing. Or maybe they would decide to take a huge prize, play the hero, and then lobby the shit out of changing any laws that restrict them. Or maybe they burn down a hospital!

This stuff is not where they make their money. There will be too much pressure to provide it low cost.

Yeah there’s plenty of history of prizes in medicine, it to my knowledge none of the drug industry lighting hospitals on fire.

I was definitely a young sports fan when this was happening so I'm excited to get a deeper look. I knew very superficial stuff around this time. Players didn't trust Krause, krause with his "orgs win championships" line, but for the most part just enjoyed the ride and had zero clue how special it is to have a team like that in any sport at any time.

That's true, it could be placebo effect. I'd add though that doctors are doing everything they an to avoid respirators because they do damage in its own right and is basically the last stop to pull. So avoiding the point of needing respiration is a pretty big deal, but yes, it could be the body turning it around for all of them. I had hopes for remdesivir after reading about New Jersey's first coronavirus patient. He was at oxygen levels to the point he had written a letter to his daughter in case of death. He was accepted as a trial for remdesivir and recovered. It may turn out to be nothing but it's nice to have some hope.

I know we can't expect the federal government to actually be proactive just do whataboutism but this is one of those things where I really wish the feds would make a large guarantee of remdesivir now so that if we do find out good news we don't have to deal with production delays. OR like offer a large prize for treatment and buy the patent and produce it generically. And if it fails it's just cost of trying to end a pandemic.

I’ll admit I mostly just focus on IL, and it’s probably a defense mechanism that I started feeling optimistic yesterday even though numbers were bleh. But yesterday did seem to be good news from Pritzker on testing. They had machines two weeks ago that were supposed to hugely impact testing but due to machine issues and lack of expertise they weren’t close to capacity, they are now ready. And he said IL procured what they needed for swabs/reagents. in addition to that, some friends in hospitals around here have expressed some optimism in strategies to avoid ventilators, which to them are essentially a death sentence. And their PPE has been much less scarce. And the U of C with remdesivir. Im just hoping this time next week we will finally feel like we have a better handle on the state of IL, and maybe more good news on treatment.

Hopeful thread

Please let this continue https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

And in singapore it's their guest worker dormitories causing much of the recent outbreak. These close quarters like these are just spreading like wildfire.

125 dead in a 24 hour period in Illinois, first day over 100. 1100 new cases, again, if you average out the last few days we are basically just flat. I missed some of it, but Pritzker seemed to outline that some changes should allow a jump in testing next few days. edit, have grown closer to 6k per day. 10 k is still the goal.

I'd also say that every year there has been a guy that the sox have been rumored to be all over and then they don't draft that guy. This year may be especially opaque given new head of draft plus insane circumstances. All of my favorites seemed to be locks for top 7 now so I have no idea. I think only college pitcher not especially into is Burns and BA had him way down so not that concerned anymore. It has felt like mlodzinski has the type of profile that sox like in pro pitchers, but who knows what they think with his shorter track record. Last thought, I know sox haven't been rumored around Abel at all but I still think it's possible just with their selection of dalquist, prior to that seemed like preps had to be in chicagoland area to get any notice from sox.

I agree with you, but I will trust the scouts here. Sox have not been attracted to that prototype before so that they are here obviously could be related to Shirley but also could reflect their belief that Kelley is different (which hopefully they are right on but it's a dangerous game).

It's definitely a relief that Chicago avoided capacity issues at hospitals, but it's a bit disappointing now how slow the curve has been to actually dip. It seems impossible to keep the R0 beneath 1 with our self quarantining sending people to homes with multiple people.

I don't think many restaurants / bars will be able to run at 50% capacity. Still going to need a lot of grant money/subsidies.

It definitely matters what US citizens believe about their governments decisions.

The thing is, there is very little leverage. Higher ratings may not even turn into increased revenue because advertising sales have fallen off a cliff. https://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/virus-cuts-linear-tv-ad-revenues-by-27-iab No team or owner is going to thrive in this. They will do what they can to keep the league afloat including supporting teams with sharing.

I'm assuming this from vanity fair: " __ I just have a couple of more lifestyle questions, then I’ll let you go. People are still holding out hope for some kind of abbreviated baseball season this summer, college football will start in late August. NFL right after that. Do you think those sports seasons are in jeopardy? Are we going to have college football this fall?__ You know, to be honest with you, Peter, I don’t know. I really don’t. And it’s sort of along the same line as the question you asked about the schools. It’s really going to depend on what actually evolves over the next couple of months. You know, regarding sports, I believe, and I think this is going to be implemented by the initiation and the initiative of the people who own these clubs. If you could get on television, Major League Baseball, to start July 4. Let’s say, nobody comes to the stadium. You just, you do it. I mean people say, “Well you can’t play without spectators.” Well, I think you’d probably get enough buy-in from people who are dying to see a baseball game. Particularly me. I’m living in Washington. We have the World Champion Washington Nationals. You know, I want to see them play again. But there’s a way of doing that because there have been some proposals both at the level of the NFL, Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, to get these people tested, and to put them in big hotels, you know, wherever you want to play. Keep them very well surveilled, namely a surveillance, but have them tested, like every week. By a gazillion tests. And make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family. And just let them play the season out. I mean, that’s a really artificial way to do it, but when you think about it, it might be better than nothing. Yeah, the TV ratings would be through the roof. Oh, for sure." https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/anthony-fauci-on-new-rules-of-living-with-coronavirus

The league is going to make sure the league is taken care of. There will certainly be revenue sharing, but baseball will certainly get more requests for national games than is typical, and hopefully real advertising revenue would show up on networks for that. The financial stuff to overcome doesn't seem like much of a hurtle because there isn't much alternative. It is what it is now, the keeping players and employees healthy is much more difficult than the revenue splits.

flat, 1222 new cases, more than the 1075 yesterday. Curve has been very slow to bend here. Tests? still at 5k ?

5 minutes away from a very important day for illinois numbers. We have seen a drop 2 days in a row. But 3 days makes it much likelier to be a trend.

Oh boy. Yes, probably.

We'll never know, but it is notable for how much nyk kept cleaning house that each new group kept him around and promoted him before he finally left for greener pastures.

I think Hughes is a good pick. He was credited with drafting a lot of the knicks successes, and then the clips around the time they hired him were among the best functioning orgs in the game, so clearly he was well respected.

I think they had an issue in their model of symmetry to when cases went down deaths did in same fashion, rather than cases as leading indicator. Maybe they fixed it.