Balta1701

IT'S BEEN A WHILE.

HAHA THAT WARMUP VIDEO FROM JAPAN WOOOOOO

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:53 PM) Random killings are a problem! And a growing problem! You can't deny that! Mass shootings definitely appear to be a growing problem (204 days this year, 204 mass shootings in the U.S.). However, the number of "random killings" or "cases where the victim is unknown the the offender" has gone down over the last several years as well according to FBI stats.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:03 PM) But that's really the thing...what has the year really done to change anything? What key contributors have really failed this year in regards to the grand scheme of things? 1. Avisail Garcia. Top of the list and not even close. We need him to be an above average player and he's one of the worst couple OF in baseball. 2. Jose Abreu. Massively underperforming last year and looking like a major long-term "injury plagued" guy. He's still a solid player but we were counting on him to be an MVP candidate and you can't tell me you have confidence he'll get back there as of now. 3. Alexei Ramirez. We've gone from having an overperforming SS to a massively underperforming SS. 4. Eaton. He's still a decent player but last year he was on pace to be an All Star, 5 fWAR guy. Now he's on pace for ~2-2.5. That's an ok player but that is a huge dropoff from anything that lets us project this as a competitive team. 5. Flowers/Gillaspie. These guys looked like they could be close to tolerable big leaguers, now they look like replacement level (flowers) or below replacement level. 6. No longer have Marcus Semien, dramatically decreasing infield depth. Do you count on Sanchez and Saladino as starters? I'm at best uncertain. Anderson getting a shot in 2017 is fine but I expect rookies to struggle in the bigs, so even if he gets the spot I'm expecting him to contribute little in 2017 at best. 7. Money tied up in underperforming, poor defense left fielder who may not age well. By 2017 yes we'll have 2 major contracts cleared up, but we have no one to replace the open 1b slot that LaRoche will vacate so we'll be right back to plugging that hole by overpaying on the FA market. If you're like me and you don't think Anderson can step in and contribute right away in 2017 because he's a rookie, then we have a ton of below average positions and virtually no "strongly above average" positions in our lineup. We might be able to create one out of Micah, but there's no strong depth behind him if he needs time to adapt to the league too. By 2017, we'll have money to replace some of those positions, but not all. The pitchers and Abreu will be getting gradually more expensive. We might be able to fill some holes through free agency, but the lesson I'm learning from this year is that trying to fill multiple holes and remake your team through FA is a disaster waiting to happen. To compete in 2017 I think we need a whole lot of stuff to go right that is unlikely to go right. To me, we dumped all our backup plans this year, so when things imploded, we were left with having no choice but to "put up" with a lot of those issues.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:50 PM) I love how you think that's so outlandish. If you remove the item that makes killing hundreds of times easier, how many of those would still be deaths. We have a hint, and its other countries without as many guns. Especially with the suicides. When the Israeli army stopped allowing their soldiers to bring guns home with them on the weekends, they saw a 40% drop in their suicide rate almost immediately. Suicide isn't a logical action, it's an emotional one. If people find that they have an easy option during that emotional moment, the end result is a casualty. If people get through that moment, the desire to do so often ends. That's why suicide hotlines are effective - you get people through that one instant and they start dealing with the issues on a more normal level. You take away the easy out, forcing people to put effort into it or think beforehand and the suicide rate drops dramatically.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:51 PM) I'm pretty surprised how much the tide has turned in regards to an openness by Soxtalk posters to moving Sale....seems like this was almost unfathomable to most last year at this time. I will probably say I led the charge against that opinion last year and now I'm much more open. That's how much of a setback I view the 2015 offseason to be. Last year I thought there was near certainty we could field a competitive team by the start of 2016 with lots of payroll flexibility as well. Now I'm skeptical about 2017, and that forces me to consider alternate options.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:56 PM) The thing about Q is that his value is high based on his performance relative to his contract. This holds a lot of weight for most teams...except the Dodgers. Since the Dodgers don't seem to be afraid of paying a lot is it really fair to say they value Q like other teams would? To that end, do we really think they would give up Max value for him in prospects? If they wouldn't...then we don't trade him there, or at all.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:31 PM) And people who buy guns (legally) have to register with the government as well. I'd fully support initiatives that made guns harder to obtain, but that's still a long ways from a complete and total ban. As I've said before, you could probably convince me that there would be ways to allow legal, private ownership, or at least "death tourism parks" or whatever you want to call them where such things are ok, but we're in a world where people think that carrying their gigantic death instrument through an airport makes them cool and that should be allowed everywhere and thousands of people die every year for no other reason than a gun is present. When that's where we currently are....f*** it.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:12 PM) You don't like guns. That's fine, you don't have to. But you are completely irrational about the idea of guns. You ignore other things that don't fit into your agenda on them and pretend everything is fixed by banning them. Heroin, meth, crack, cocaine are all illegal yet amazingly people still die from them. Alcohol is legal and abused by many people. If alcohol wasn't so widely accepted or was illegal there would be fewer alcohol related events such as auto deaths or violent crimes. You like to pretend that there is nothing similar but they are very similar. Most people are responsible yet the small minority is driving your opinion to the ultimate extreme on the issue. Hypothetically, even a 100% ban on guns you can not truly believe would fix all the gun related problems. If people want to do something they will find a way to do it. Timothy McVeigh carried out the OKC bombings with fertilizer. Should that be illegal too? After the OKC Bombing, people who bought large quantities of fertilizer had to register with the government. Not an unreasonable precaution, frankly.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:17 PM) Balta logic: 25k-30k Japanese kill themselves every year. #banbalconies. Are 2/3 of them from people jumping off balconies? Do they kill another 10,000 people every year when they land?

Firearm deaths go up even as fewer people own guns. Automobile deaths go down even as more people own cars. Edit: The trick in your plots, btw, is that they're normalized to "number of guns". A sliver of the population is stockpiling them while the portion of the population smart enough to not drink and drive keep a killing tool in the home is going down. Even though fewer people are owning guns, the number of people they kill per year is going up.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 03:41 PM) You have such a perverse perspective on guns. Did someone in your family get killed in a tragic accident or something? Is there some personal issue there? The idea that 30,000+ people die in the U.S. every year from guns and this is ok and we should do nothing about it seems unbelievably perverse to me. Over the past 30 years, we've made cars safer and cut the casualty rate per year in auto deaths by 1/2, while the gun death rate has stayed basically constant. In 2015, it's likely that more Americans will die from guns than from auto accidents. Doing nothing about this problem seems like an incredibly perverse perspective.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 03:21 PM) I'm more surprised at that arbitration thing...why would he be that expensive? He's not a closer, he's not that good. In his first 2 arb years he was a closer, his first Arb salary was $3.8 million after a 34 save season (led the league in finishing 62 games that year). He may not be closing now but salaries in Arb don't go down if you're still performing, they go up.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 03:07 PM) Do they really need fielders with that pitching staff? Grienke, Sale, Shark, Kershaw. How has it worked for the White Sox this year?

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 02:27 PM) Great. You missed (ignored) the point completely however. One of those things that kills a lot of people is legal. One of them is not. Both are incredibly irresponsible and lead to huge numbers of dead people. "If we ban drunk driving, only the criminals will drive drunk!".

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) I still say, if I were able to get those 3 (given Puig's / Pederson's current production), I'd make the move. I'd clearly ask for Barnes but I'd do it for those 3. I wouldn't be happy I was in that position but I think the talent would be worth it. Last year, I wouldn't have done that deal (or any deal of Sale for comparable talent). This year I would.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 01:29 PM) http://www.chicagonow.com/soxnet/2015/07/w...-to-the-angels/ Glad Conor gets his chance elsewhere. I would have thought he'd have been a better fit in the NL. His defense just didn't work given our issues (and it doesn't help that his bat has fallen off considerably). The plantar fasciitis probably didn't help any of that.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 01:13 PM) So the Angels (1) thought there was a reasonable chance he wouldn't clear waivers and (2) wanted him badly enough that they weren't willing to risk (1). Interesting. Or they didn't want to wait?

So, there was another nice version in the tales of how the media "loves" hillary clinton last night. The NY Times ran a big scoop on how several inspectors general had asked for a DOJ investigation into Hillary Clinton's email "scandal". The NY Times had their big headline - DOJ asked to investigate Clinton's emails for classified information!!!!" Within a couple hours, the story had been pulled and rewritten entirely. The DOJ was not being asked to investigate the use of Clinton's private email box in any way, shape, or form, instead they were being asked to see whether the State Department had properly handled the emails once they were handed back over to the State Department. There was no request of an investigation specifically of the former Secretary, it was a request to investigate the later handling of those emails. The NY Times got their headline, "DOJ asked to investigate Clinton's emails" was all over the news while I was at the gym, and I had to actually sit down at my computer and look into it to find out that "oh, they're actually not caring about Clinton's private emails at all and the story is being run in a way that is completely BS". Yay media cheering on Hillary by making stuff up to make her look like a criminal!

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 01:08 PM) The most likely cause of someone driving under the influence of something is alcohol. The only way to prevent that is to get rid of alcohol. Thanks for your support. Also, the second most common form of suicide is medications. The only way to prevent that is to stop selling any medications without a prescription. Thanks for your support there too! I'm ok with making owning a gun at home 100% as legal as driving under the influence.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) Personally I still think in this offensive starved era, Abreu is more valuable then Rodon. Clearly I can't argue Rodon over the two other pitchers (so I presume you think he might be more valuable then Abreu, but I still value production and Abreu's had it and I think when healthy he's closer to last year's Abreu then this year's). When it comes to Robertson, who else on that list is worth more. He's pitching at a value commensurable with his contract and is a proven closer. I presume the Sox aren't even interested in trading for him and only select teams would be interested (and they'd have to be large market teams). I suppose if the right team valued Putnam, you could see Putnam go for similar trade value (due to his favorable contract). It is why I have a hard time just dealing Putnam or Petricka. Unless a team is going to give us some legitimate talent, then why flip them. They aren't too expensive and if they become bigger household names, you could arguably get much more for them. I see more downside then upside, unless a team was going to give us a borderline top 100 guy or some raw talent that we saw greater upside in. I think the player who might be most underrated is Eaton. That said, it doesn't take too many names until you get to guys who really have no value if moved (imo). I'd put Petricka, Putnam up there with Robertson in value based on the fact that for his actual production Robertson is at best fairly paid and if not, significantly overpaid (not even considering his reliability this season). $10 million is a premium price for any closer with the limited number of innings they pitch. I'll take the much cheaper guys in value any time compared to a closer at that price. If Abreu is the guy he was last year while healthy, which I'm not sure...the fact that we're now on 3 nagging injuries in 1.5 years is a point I can't ignore. He may still be the 2014 first half hitter and we may never see that hitter again just because he's already having so many nagging injuries. I feel like I'm watching Carlos Quentin in 2010, still a solid hitter but way down from the MVP level guy. Right now, Jose Abreu is fairly paid if you spread out his signing bonus a bit, Rodon is way underpaid, therefore I'm putting Rodon ahead of him.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 12:50 PM) Kazmir has pitched in 8 postseason games (7 starts) and has a 5.2 ERA (WHIP was 1.7+). Shark has 1 posteason apperance (w/Cubs) and it was 1 inning where he gave up a run (ERA of 9). Last year + this year (being fair to Kazmir who has been rejuvenated), Shark has a WAR of 5.6 vs. Kazmir of 4.7. Shark's WAR is 19% better then Kazmir's in that run. In 2013, Shark / Kazmir has comparable season's in terms of WAR, although Kazmir was better when he did pitch that year. Reputation wise though, Shark is much more highly thought of and you can even look at last year and what analysts were saying. It was Shark who was the A's #2 (not Kazmir). There's a big flaw in this response using WAR when the specific question asked focused on the value for a single playoff game. Yes, Samardzija had a better WAR last year and it's comparable this year...but that's because Samardzija is pitching more innings, which shouldn't be surprising when the other guy missed time. Especially since anyone who gets in trouble in a playoff game gets pulled early, innings isn't what I'm looking for if a guy is healthy. If you actually look at the raw performance stats, Kazmir is clearly outpitching Samardzija right now and that's even if you be nice and pretend Samardzija's April didn't happen. Given their health track records, or anything weighted by innings, Samardzija looks better, but if they're both healthy and you're asking which pitcher you'd take, Kazmir is a better pitcher right now. Will he be that way in September? I don't know, Samardzija has a longer track record, but through the 2015 season Kazmir has been the better pitcher.

Immediate reaction is surprise at Rodon being so low. Second reaction is that Robertson is too high. Would be way too high but not a lot of value below him. Well done overall.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 12:47 PM) Same could be said about the need to enact a ton of gun laws on the myth that you'll be a victim of a mass shooting (or just a shooting). The most likely violent use of firearms is in suicide. The only way to prevent that is to get rid of them completely. Thanks for your support.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 12:04 PM) Re Trey M, 2017 at the earliest. That would be fast even for the white sox.