Balta1701

Just so someone says this…a lack of accountability, a lack of focus, a failure to put in work, playing favorites - those were some of the biggest and most consistent criticisms of Guillen over his last 5 years. When Ventura took over for 1 season, you actually saw a team that was accountable and put in work, and they massively overplayed their talent level. Then of course Ventura checked out for a nap and was never heard from again. Somehow now we managed to look at the worst parts of Guillen and think “if only we did more of that” with the current manager.

I am still going with the hypothesis that they think because Nightengale said it was a lack of players’ leadership, they are out of touch enough to believe the manager comes out of this looking great. It’s those dastardly players like we said.

But who is going to gamble on giving up anything for that at the trade deadline, with the money thrown in?

Nightengale was also the one clueless enough to say that DUI wasn’t a real crime for someone as important as LaRussa with no concept of how that would come across. They specifically wrote that this is a “lack of player leadership”. Could they be out of touch enough to believe that this would come across as “it’s all the players’ fault” and not “hey what the hell are the coaches doing”? If this was leaked to Nightengale, I can’t see it coming from anyone other than JR or LaRussa himself.

Would you say that Lance Lynn can lose 1.2 mph off his fastball without it affecting his performance at all?

Lynn is coming off major knee surgery, missed 3 months, isn’t in the best shape anyway, his fastball is down 1.2 mph over last year, he’s giving up his highest exit velocity of the statcast era, and his numbers show the results of this boiling down to an expected ERA near 4. His velocity is also not trending upwards over his first 5 games. On top of that, he’s owed $27 million for the next year and a half, whereas he was owed $9 million over 1 year when Dunning was traded for him. By the end of the year perhaps he pitches himself back to significant value, but right now both Cueto and Lynn have expected ERAs around 4 (4.08 vs 3.9) and one of them is owed $2 million while the other is owed $27 million. Lynn will currently not return anything of substantial value to the white Sox other than salary relief, certainly nothing that makes them better next year than Lynn could. Cueto won’t return a star by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s cheap enough for any team to go after him, and anything that is returned for him makes the 2023 white Sox better than the nothing they get if they hold him and he departs as a FA. Lucas might be starting to trend in the right direction, but his overall stats are genuinely bad. His expected wOBA right now is identical to where it was in 2018. Maybe by the end of the year this improves substantially as that started to happen over his 2 games prior to this last one, but I’m not giving anything of value based on those two games - again at least nothing that could have the same value to the White Sox as Lucas next year. For me that latter part is key - my goal is not to sell off this team but to try to put them in a better spot for next year. And yes please brag for us about how Craig Kimbrel is the dominant force you spent the offseason saying he was, and I was totally wrong calling him a middling reliever. Clearly I can’t scout pitching as everyone agrees that picking up his option was 100% the right move as you said all along. I would love to hear more of your discussion of why Kimbrel is awesome and that was a great move at every step just like you said.

Why would another team do that? They have a decent cost controlled pitcher, but want to give this pitcher up for a guy making either $10 or $18 million next year, who is also a free agent soon, who also either struggled a ton or was injured this year?

One other thing worth adding here. There's a potentially serious salary issue here that the White Sox have to think about in advance. Assuming Pollock picks up his option, the White Sox have $137.5 million guaranteed next year. They have a bunch of arbitration guys - Giolito (arb-3), Lopez (arb 3), Engel (arb 3), Kopech (arb -1), Cease (arb-1) all have a good chance of being picked up. Those 5 together - roughly $25 million probably isn't a bad estimate, maybe you cut Engel but then you still need someone to replace him? On top of that, Foster, Ruiz, McGuire, Lambert, and Mendick are also all first year arb-guys - some of them probably get cut loose, but there's at least a few million more if they keep any of them. If they decide to give $20 million to Abreu for another year, or if they have to make a payroll cut because they lose out on playoff revenues and ticket sales associated with having playoff games to sell tickets for...that leaves them dangerously close to declaring the team is on the field.

I think that is entirely reasonable, possibly with a second piece.

I was able to wash and detail my entire car while listening to this game and it was....surprisingly pleasant? Like, nothing went wrong? Runs kept scoring? Yay?

Eloy has extremely low value in a trade, practically none. He's due $26 million over the next 2 seasons, and if he hits better he does have option years - but they're $16.5 and $18.5 million option years so the upside is limited. Youv'e got a guy with 2.5 years of guaranteed money, who is due a guaranteed $30 million minimum, who has two major injuries the last 2 seasons, and a total of 0.5 rWAR over that time. There's just not trade value here, especially not to a rebuilding team.

Gravemann is 70th in WAR and 51st in ERA out of the bullpen. He’s good but he’s certainly not irreplaceable.

So far this season the White Sox have a free win thanks to Doug Eddings and a free Twins loss thanks to Angel Hernandez.

Right now $15 million.

I would be totally ok with clearing roster spots and giving Sosa and Sanchez burn in the last 2 months. However I admit being nervous that any version of a move that involves keeping Leury on the roster means that any rookies I bring up don’t even get 100 PAs over 2 months, and Leury’s contract is genuinely hard to release just because a manager refuses to use him as a backup.

Short answer: I don’t know. Long answer: try a different coaching staff. If Moncada is a bust who has lost his exit velocity, Eloy is a ground ball machine, Robert is a good player but not an MVP candidate, Vaughn hits for average but the power isn’t there because he’s looking the other way, and Giolito can’t keep things together - there’s enough pitching here to talk about the AL central or a wild card, but never hanging with the big boys.

Harrison and Pollock have effectively no value. If you can move them sure, but more likely you are talking about DFA them if you want the roster spot. Maybe you could move them if you picked up a portion of the contract, but not for any return in terms of players.

At some level, they have so much money and time invested in a large group of players who haven’t lived up to their billing they have no choice but to run it back next year…. But look what we had to do last offseason. 2b, 2b, utility guy, reliever, reliever, 5th starter/reliever, 5th starter/ reliever, corner OF. Imagine that you can trade guys now, clear a little salary, and fill 2 or 3 of those roles. Find a couple of decent players to cover those spots and you make a serious impact on next years’ roster. Its not as good of a plan as having been better in ‘22, but I can’t fix that now. That team is a sunk cost, I can’t let the fact that I screwed that up impact whether I give ‘23 my best effort.

So his money is comparable to the highest paid reliever in baseball, and he has an even larger luxury tax penalty thanks to Hahn's work. If the medicals are ok, you can probably move his contract, but who takes on the highest paid reliever in baseball with 2.5 years left on their deal and gives up substantial value of players for them? If you really need to move the contract, which is possible, I think you might as well wait until the offseason. The tax stuff gets a little less wonky each year, and several months of health might help.

Hendriks however has a much larger financial commitment, and I think Rick Hahn managed to create a contract that has a 30% larger luxury tax hit than its actual number, which will matter to the Dodgers. Throw in a recent injury and you're talking about a really high risk move for them. Robertson or Graveman would be way smarter moves for them.

He's a FA after 2023, not after 2024. He has 1.5 years of control remaining - that's why you should move him now.

But are they giving you a valuable piece back for him? Probably not, not with that contract. He's a guy who has a decent chance of being movable, but his injury and his contract mean you aren't getting a return that makes you substantially better next year.

If Lopez continues being a quality reliever, we 100% know what the contract looks like for him - 2 to 3 years at $20 to $30 million total. We keep signing relievers for that money.