Balta1701

Indiana might actually play in the Rose Bowl!

I could not help but notice the contrast between Kopech's use yesterday and this description of how Gonsolin has turned into one of the best pitchers in the NL: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34168683/real-not-midseason-verdict-mlb-biggest-surprise-stars-2022

I would like to point out the double standard given to a few at bats from Sosa and a half season of at bats with Leury. Has there been any string of a few at bats this year where Leury has rolled over a few balls?

This is nuts enough that I'm happy to be wrong, but I think it's actually worse than that. As far as I can tell, the text in MLB's CBA says that the luxury tax is always "Guaranteed dollars on a person's deal divided by years remaining, calculated each year". In that case, right now, Hendriks's contract has an $18 million luxury tax hit this year and an $18 million luxury tax hit next year, while his salary is $13.3 million this year and $14.3 million next year. This is the case because the White Sox guaranteed him $54 million total over 3 years, with some weird option work that keeps the same guaranteed dollars but could spread the last year out. If an acquiring team picks up his option, they would do so after 2023. That means the 2023 luxury tax will already have been calculated with his tax value at $18 million. But, 2024 is independent of the 2023 calculation, so what I think actually happens is he gets paid $15 million in 2024 and his luxury tax is still $15 million. In other words, I think Rick Hahn signed a contract that had a $54 million total valuation, but because of the screwy contract structure, I think he managed to create a contract that has a $54 million valuation and a $69 million luxury tax value. The one place where I think this does show up in text is if you go to Spotrac and look at the White Sox for 2024 - Hendriks is listed as an option, but his luxury tax of $15 million still shows up! https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/2024/

There are currently no qualifying offers but they might come back if the union doesn’t give the owners an international draft next year. But, Abreu already had a qualifying offer given to him and you can do that with a guy once per career if they do come back.

If he did show signs that he turned it around in July, he still won’t have a ton of trade value at the deadline given his multiple injuries this year and $17.8 million guaranteed next year and $30 million guaranteed for ‘24-25 counting the buyout. Someone might be willing to take on that contract, but $47.6 million guaranteed over 2 years for a 0 WAR player currently is not a valuable asset to trade.

Hendriks has to actually be able to pitch before anyone is taking him on, and his contract is actually a major ding on his value as his luxury tax number is way above his salary. Giolito may turn this around but he’s legitimately been bad this year. People don’t give up big ticket value at the deadline for players who are struggling. Even if you are able to move those guys, you will not be getting top level big league ready players for them.

Ohtani has given up 1 run total in his last 3 starts. This is a pitcher’s duel on paper.

In case people missed this:

I took a look through some archive documents and the last time it appears they had a consensus top 10 system was back in 2010-2011 when they had Mike Trout down there. Since then they’ve been consensus bottom 10 every year, coming in last more than once. I also can’t remember any prospects they had coming up from the international market. Theyre a great example in this respect of how a lack of a supporting system starves a big league roster even if they’re willing to spend money.

That is a heckuva pitching matchup.

The financial industry has a multitude of ways for people to turn asset appreciation into liquid funds, particularly if some of those funds are going to be spent on something that could contribute to long term growth of the business.

Pretty sure you just asserted that the entire financial industry is a figment of someone’s imagination.

Like I said, it isn’t likely to be a big deal for any one player, but every so often it becomes a major unforced error. The biggest name I can think of that basically followed this path of called up too early from AA and breaking out right after being released is JD Martinez. And one flop that big illustrates the downside- rare and unlikely, but you get unlucky and bang you gave Detroit one of the best hitters in the game. So if you have a simple way to avoid that downside, probably good to do so.

It wastes exactly 1 minor league option. For a guy who would have a good chance at being optioned to start next year anyway, that's a surprisingly big deal. If they didn't call him up now, and he stayed in the minors all year, he has 3 options left next year. Starts the year either at AAA or in the big leagues depending on what they want to do, and then has 3 years to develop into a big league hitter before he's released. Now he has 2. A totally plausible scenario is: he spends most of one year in AAA, has an injury at some point that costs him a couple months, and then we're staring at him running out of options to start 2025 without anyone being convinced he can play at the big league level, so we trade him late in the spring for whatever or he gets claimed on waivers and then immediately breaks out at that point. It may not happen, but it's like playing Russian Roulette - things aren't likely to go bad every time you do something unnecessarily dumb, but its possible, and if you do the same dumb thing enough then eventually you will give away a player who makes a big difference against you.

Yes, read the rest of the thread. Refill are added to the 40 man or Dee Strange-Gordon as a FA.

5 games wouldn’t be that for him either.

Don’t even bother with that. Use a guy you don’t care about losing or sign a free agent.

Right now the Twins are playing .560 ball. That translates to a 90.7 win pace. I’m not sure 9-7 is enough to knock them off that pace. All 4 AL East teams are also currently on pace for 90+ wins. Someone has to fall off for a wild card to be available at 88 wins.

Dee Strange-Gordon was released by the Nationals a couple days before Sosa was called up. He’s a free agent utility player and in 59 at bats this year did hit .300.

Can you even do that with his current contract situation?