Balta1701

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 07:25 AM) There is still a massive divide between the haves and have nots in baseball, and revenue is the truest division. Small market teams occasionally make it out, but they disappear quickly. I used KC and Pittsburgh as examples before. So they finally did something positive right? Yeah, look at where they are right now. A combined 5.5 games out of the Wild Card between both of them after 5 playoff appearances and a world series title the last 3 years? You make a strong case. We should do what they did.

So, vote Clinton for more tacos. I think Greg is actually right, they've got a way to make a 60% vote share happen - taco trucks on every corner!

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 06:34 PM) Managers matter, too. And GM's. Look at SD. The owner there forced an all-in season on Preller, was smart enough to realize the error in his ways and they're going in a clear direction now. JR wants all-in but there's been no willingness to pay (and by definition you're almost always overpaying in free agency) the amount it would cost to put out a legit/competitive offense. Coupled with the shape of the farm system, especially in terms of their ability to trade non-2016 draftees, it's obvious they won't get back what they need because it's hard to imagine the Rockies lining up to trade CarGo for Fulmer, and just as difficult to imagine us adding more $15-$20 million contracts for NL players. Realistically, the only way to win is finding those rare motivated free agents like Fowler and Desmond (late 20s/early 30s), and that's not going to be sustainable because they're typically on one year deals while rebuilding value. Same situation we have with Morneau now, and would have faced if Jackson had a really good season offensively and had stayed healthy. I don't think Fulmer's value dropped that much this year, I would have sure said the Rockies would say yes on that.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 03:38 PM) It tells me that we have lost a lot games we could have potentially won, but I also don't have the context of the actual conversion %, the amount of situations vs. other teams, etc. What does stick out is that by most advanced stats our bullpen is awful. 25th in xfip, etc. We have a really really porous pen and it is very evident, imo. We are a lot better team with an above average bullpen. We could say that about other areas, but this bullpen is awful. But don't miss this part though...what are the White Sox missing from their bullpen? Putnam, Petricka, Duke (or other random LOOGY), maybe you count Webb also. They're missing some depth fine, Putnam can be an 8th inning guy sometime, but they're not missing Wade Davis. They're not missing their closer or their top setup guy from the start of the season. Add in Petricka, Duke, Putnam, and they're perhaps closer to an average bullpen and that's a few wins over the course of the year, but that's not an "above average" bullpen. With unbelievable health, they were in the middle of the league last year in bullpen FIP and xFIP, and that was that crazy year where fangraphs thought the defense was so much worse than every other metric that I probably put them as closer to an average pen last year. You want this to become an "above average" bullpen, they need to get those other guys back and add a Chapman level pitcher and then have no injuries next year. That's how far away they are from the standard you just set.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 03:12 PM) Then you better pray to God that Shields can pitch like a #4 and not one of the worst starters in baseball history. I think they'll come up with another veteran pitcher somewhere. They genuinely do have some money to spend - they're about at $100 million ish committed depending on who they actually offer arb to. There's money available to do a Fulmer for NL Slugger close to free agency swap and still go out and do several Rick Hahn Special type signings.

What ought to concern is... What we saw in August is sort of how the White Sox are supposed to work right? Abreu putting up MVP numbers, Rodon Quintana and Sale all putting up ERAs under 3 for the month, production from the DH spot, normal numbers from Eaton, good numbers from Anderson, production from the catcher's spot, hell even a great 1/2 month from Garcia , he back 3 in the bullpen all present and healthy (Jones, Robertson, Jennings). And given all that, they still went 12-15 in the month. Fine, add in some extra bullpen depth and pretend no one gets hurt and that goes up to 13-14 wins...but man. Abreu's hitting like this and even then they're still a .500 team.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 01:46 PM) It's less than ideal but if we are going to hold all of our assets I don't see another way. Do not have farm to acquire big upgrades in this market. Should be clear after 2 years in a row, planting "average" players into below average holes is not equaling much if any return. I will go in on my gamble as them moving Fulmer this offseason. They've treated him exactly the way they treated all the other guys they moved in previous years and he's basically the only trade chip they have that would interest anyone other than this year's draftees. That "2nd trade" Rick Hahn referred to that will show everyone what they're doing? That's my guess.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:02 PM) It took the Cubs 5 years of averaging 90+ losses to rebuild. The Astros took 6. The Twins are in year 5 of 6 at 90+, they did win 83 last year. Those, I would guess, "are done properly". The decades of droughts like KC and Pittsburgh, not so good. I can see why JR doesn't want to do it. If he isn't going to do it, he has to up the payroll and not depend on J-Roll. The first year the Cubs dropped below .500 was 2010. Since Opening day of the 2010 season, the Chicago Cubs, with their entire rebuild, have a 528-576 record Since Opening day of the 2010 season, the White Sox while declaring they were going to win the division every year except 2014, have a 527-577 record.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 11:51 AM) This is the key here. This is a big assumption being made. Do you have confidence in that? I don't. Ok, let's follow this logic. Let's assume that management is terrible and will continue making terrible decisions. The only way for this team to become a playoff team, therefore, will be by accident - things that were stupid decisions will need to wind up working out. In that case, can you provide a convincing argument why "all in every year" and putting the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division on the field every year has a better chance of providing the accidental playoff team than a decade long rebuilding? I will totally grant that it is possible to put the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division on the field and eventually, once every 10 or 20 years of doing that, you will win the division. But unless you can present an argument why the odds of success are higher by fielding a mid-level team every year, that's the same timescale you've argued it would take for this terrible management to pull off a rebuild.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 10:58 AM) f***ing up a rebuild and punting on a decade is an absolutely stupid way to respond to "a clear lack of direction". Just to stress - this assumes that the people doing the rebuild are terrible at identifying talent and completely fail at their job. Repeatedly. The Astros blew 2 #1 picks and turned one around in 5 years. This management has to be worse than "getting jack squat out of two #1 picks" to pull off your downside.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 10:35 AM) We haven't seen anywhere near the worst. We didn't go decades without being over .500. You personally were in the Guaranteed Rate thread saying how bad of a sign the indifference of larger companies was for this franchise when you look ahead to the next TV contract. I'd say you don't get to be scared of where things are going in that thread and then say how much worse things could be in here, because if things are scary right now...they're scary.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 10:21 AM) This is the exact same stuff that was said about John Danks. Just because things aren't great, doesn't mean they can't be worse. That argument applies equally to standing pat and holding onto those guys.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 09:09 AM) I guess we will see. The point is, dont half ass it if you are going to throw money at it again disclaimer: im not approving of this avenue they seem to be choosing. Just saying if you are going balls out, you might as wear get out the assless chaps too I think we all know what the reality is. They like what they're doing now and they're going to do it again.

So, Avi Garcia is a 2nd year arb eligible player next year and no reason to think that status will be changed much by the CBA. His salary this year is $2.1 million. In Viciedo's first arb year he made $2.8 million, and then agreed to a non-guaranteed $4.4 million deal to avoid arbitration. I learned thanks to this site that those deals are non-guaranteed, meaning it only costs a small amount to terminate an arbitration deal if the player is removed by opening day. It is possible that is something the union could target changing during the CBA, but assuming it doesn't, a reasonable path is the Viciedo one - they offer him arbitration knowing the contract will be non-guaranteed, get an agreement for something in the range of $4 million, look for better options, and have him available on the roster just in case coming in to ST.

"Spend like a boss"? On what? If Cespedes doesn't opt out, who is left? Does Ramos + Rich Hill + Josh Reddick turn this team into the best team even in just the AL Central?

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 29, 2016 -> 12:38 PM) This is just deja vu all over again. It's exactly the same as last year. In the last 2 months of 2015 Rodon had a 2.28 ERA. He is probably the main reason the Sox haven't burned it all down. If he finds the consistency of Sale/Q over an entire season it's huge. That's what people were expecting this year from him. If you are of the mind that the Sox need to rebuild part of the reason is we didn't get the new and improved Rodon of the last 2 months of 2015 . Now it is happening again and once again it will make it difficult to make decisions concerning 2017. Sale and Q being Sale and Q means 40% of your starters can be counted on.Add Rodon to the mix and its 60%. That might mean an extra 5 wins during the season. That would make the Sox 68-61 this year and right in the thick of things. Rodn becoming what we all think he an be is paramount to the Sox success and that means keeping Sale and Q. So let's see, the first problem is that the final paragraph is exactly the argument that the FO will make to ownership about why they need to sell out and be all in next year again, but anyway. Here's my issue with getting excited about Rodon - you see it in posts above this one as well, saying "if he finds the consistency..." but that's not easy. Even a true ace will have plenty of days where he doesn't have 1 of his pitches working, and even a true ace will have days where he has literally nothing. The trick for "consistency" is what can they do when they don't have things working. To me, it's not unexpected at all that Rodon is having a really good stretch right now, because he has two plus pitches. When those two pitches are working effectively several games in a row, he will have several great games in a row. You can even see guys keep that up with two plus pitches for long enough to make the all star game, but eventually they always hit a rut because every pitcher loses the feel for some pitch eventually. Right now Rodon's had two seasons where he's found a groove and had both pitches working late in the year but not early in the year. That's where he needs to be more flexible as a pitcher. While he was struggling in July, the Yankees announcers noted that everything was hard, hard, hard with him - upper 90s fastball followed by high 80s slider. That's a mix that works from the bullpen when you face a guy once or you get pulled before the second pitch hurts you, but as a starter one way to overcome the times you are missing one of your pitches is to be able to change speeds. We're still waiting on him to have some ability to do that - a hard fastball and a hard slider will destroy some teams if they're plus pitches, but other teams that hit those pitches well or days when the slider isn't working well will still be bad. Without an effective pitch in the lower 80s, Rodon's success will be entirely based on him having his slider and fastball and good control of both every time out, and I haven't seen the pitcher who works that way.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 30, 2016 -> 09:31 AM) You guys are making mortgages out to be really interesting. Well, the mortgage industry did commit 2 of the world's biggest frauds ever within about 5 years...so there is that

Gerrit Cole will not be making his scheduled Monday start against the Cubs. He is flying to Los Angeles to have his elbow examined by the Dodgers team doctor. The Pirates state they do not believe there is serious ligament damage, but we'll see.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Aug 27, 2016 -> 10:22 AM) If he comes up now or starts in the bullpen on opening day next season, it doesn't effect when he would be arbitration/free agent eligible so his starting his clock doesn't matter. Doesn't that depend on how the new CBA decides to deal with service time?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 26, 2016 -> 09:44 AM) It is the oddest correction I know of. After nearly a decade, the economy isn't healthy enough to sustain an actual interest rate. Numbers don't agree with each other on how healthy the economy actually is. By traditional measures, the economy should be overheating, but we are still sitting on minimal growth and inflation. Is the total unemployment/underemployment/discouraged (U6) actually excluded as a traditional measure?

The true irony is that your reactions in this thread is literally demanding a safe space for yourselves.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2016 -> 03:10 PM) FutureSox ‏@FutureSox 3h3 hours ago Carson Fulmer at 63, Zack Collins at 89 on post-draft updated @MLBPipeline Top 100 MLB prospects list: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/?list=prospects … Is this the same ranking system I found here from last year, where Fulmer was listed 9th?

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Aug 25, 2016 -> 05:14 PM) Noting he's been with White Sox for 16 years, Rick Hahn says idea he and Williams clash is "tired and repetitive and there’s nothing there." https://twitter.com/ChiTribKane/status/768933984956932097 Then they should both be fired.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 25, 2016 -> 06:07 PM) When the White Sox won the WS, they were 17th in attendance. In 2012 when they were in first place most of the season they were in 24th. Winning helps but not a lot. If the White Sox have reached a point where even serious winning over multiple seasons would not push them back >30,000 tickets/game then they need to move away from this city, because that means their market has abandoned them or been destroyed.