southsider2k5

Quite right you are BS>

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 03:05 PM) Does Thome hit CC pretty well? Surprised he's hitting 3rd against a tough lefty. Pretty much one of him or Pods has to be in the line up.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 02:02 PM) ...and hopefully this story goes away. As long as there isn't a civil suit filed, it should.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 02:13 PM) NFL is going to be in for a huge lawsuit if they try and change the rules and then retroactively apply them to Cowboy stadium. From what ive heard the scoreboard can be moved (it has to be moved for some upcoming concert) but Jones likes its location. If its the same for both teams, it really doesnt matter to me, and if the rules were 85 ft he did follow them and gave it an extra 5 ft. I already remember reading they were raising 25 feet for a concert.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 02:52 PM) Rangel is one of the sleaziest national politicians we have. That and Barney's(sssppbbth) Frank. I don't like Frank at all, but I wouldn't put him into the Rangel sleaze category, at least not yet. I haven't seen any outward lawbreaking done by Frank. He's a two face who talks out of both sides of his mouth for sure, but I haven't see a criminal side, at least that I know of.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 01:43 PM) I was hoping someone would take my bait about the two income household - you sort of did. But I can play both sides here... The main counter to my argument about two-income households, is that the increase in overall family incomes has meant a serious increase in their monthly spending levels. This would seem to make any adjustment to lower incomes all the more difficult. Jumping back to my side though, I think what you have here is the better of two models. If the increased spending was being done on more expensive necessities (which it hasn't - inflation has been very low for some time now), then the simple odds of being struck by a job loss would outweigh the flexibility. But since core inflation has stayed generally low, the extra spending was actually a broadening of spending into many different non-necessary sectors. This sector schism will, IMO, start to become apparent in the performance and markets in the next year. Families will adjust down their spending on non-necessary items (i.e. consumer electronics), but still generally support the necessities (grocery, hardware). This type of model is more flexible and more able to take on the burden of loss of income, than the other one. So, investors, take note. Watch for commodity and necessity sectors to perform well from here out for a while, with elective spending areas lagging. On a gross level yes it has, but the two earner incomes are a necessity for a lot of people right now who are trying to support their large house, their auto loans, their credit cards, etc. Most families if they lost an income, would lose their house.

QUOTE (Tex @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 02:14 PM) Maybe AJ could be moved to the outfield to save his legs . . . where have I heard that before What legs?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 01:12 PM) The low supply you are referring to is a fundamental support in the market. The fact that is has gotten a lot lower is good, not bad. Its not an indication of anything temporary, its quite the opposite. If sales and prices suddenly jumped while supply was not going down significantly, then THAT would tell me this this will go back down again, and that it was purely tax-deal and foreclosure-inspired blips. But as supply keeps getting lower in going with the prices, and more people snatch up the foreclosure properties, the market is correcting in a fundamental way. Except I really don't believe that supply is nearly as low as it seems. There are a ton of people who want to see but can't, because of either job, credit, credit market, or upside down issues right now. The resistance for a recovery in the housing market is huge right now. I can think of no better example than the auto market fundamentals we just saw, except this is much bigger because of the huge price losses in many markets.

So Kaner pleads guilty to a misdemeanor, and gets a year of probation.

That is just disturbing...

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 12:44 PM) Bummer. Gordon really needs a day off or two. I'd almost think about a day with Nix at third and Lilli at second. Sunday might be a good day b/c it would give Gordo all evening Saturday, all day Sunday, and then until the game on Monday.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 12:36 PM) He was placed on the DL on August 13th so he should be good to go. Sox might stall though because having both him and Wise on the DL will enable the club to have two more players eligible for the post-season roster. Yeah, so today would have been the first day he could come off. With the roster move maybe happening on Saturday to get another pitcher here, I would imagine the Sox don't make a move until the first to bring back both Chris and DeWayne.

What was his date of being placed on the DL? I don't think that it has even been 15 days yet.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 12:25 PM) Yea, Clinton told us that it is whatever the definition of is is. Nice work

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 12:10 PM) Mike I like the above. Very good and informative post. I think you should blog on the economy!!! Thanks Jas, I appreciate it. It sounds silly, but I find this stuff incredibly interesting. There is a reason I passed up sportscasting and broadcasting to stay with econ. based things.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:51 AM) U.S. double-dip recession "out of the question": ECRI On Friday August 28, 2009, 10:30 am EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests chances of a double-dip recession are slim. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week to August 21 fell to 124.4 from a downwardly revised 124.9 the prior week, which was originally reported at 125.0. But the index's annualized growth rate soared to a 38-year high of 19.6 percent from a downwardly revised 17.4 percent the prior week, a number which was originally 17.5 percent. It was the WLI's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to May 28, 1971, when it stood at 20.5 percent. "With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group's recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections. He added that the index was pulled down this week due to higher interest rates. Achuthan has recently projected that the recovery is moving at a stronger pace than any the United States has seen since the early 1980s. I took some time and read up on this guy and his foundation. It is interesting, but I not convinced. My whole argument has been about the fundamentals versus the statistics. His whole system is econometrics essentially, which still does not take into account all of the outside intervention, and the tenuous nature of that. I didn't see any accounting for the artificialness of said statistics.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:24 AM) Let’s play a game it’s called imagine if Bush tried this: Bill would give president emergency control of Internet“The new version would allow the president to "declare a cybersecurity emergency" relating to "non-governmental" computer networks and do what's necessary to respond to the threat. Other sections of the proposal include a federal certification program for "cybersecurity professionals," and a requirement that certain computer systems and networks in the private sector be managed by people who have been awarded that license” http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10320096-38.html Its not really a loss of a freedom, as we have only one internet to choose from anyway. This will give us true choice!

Way to rescue the thread Soxy!

QUOTE (smalls2598 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 08:12 AM) This morning on the Mully and Hanley show, it was reported that Rich Harden was put on waivers and claimed by the Twins. Wow are they desperate.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:17 AM) For a little while, yes, but Tyler Flowers will make those regrets pass very quickly. Replacing a guy who understands the game with a guy who can hit, is about more than the numbers. I really hope AJ mentors the kid a bit, but who knows.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:10 AM) I can't believe you put CNBC and WSJ/Crain's business writing in the same sentence. As for a bottom, I'm not suggesting we all try to find an exact point. I'm saying that all indications at this point is that we are in the territory of a floor. Confidence is indeed huge. But I think its interesting that when Obama goes on the tube and says things are still tough but we're seeing signs of recover, het gets blasted for it. For one thing, he's right. For another, it is hugely important to the country that the President try to promote those positives, as long as he doesn't extend into true falsehoods. That confidence can come in part from these things being highlighted. Trust me I understand the President's role as Chief Cheerleader. I actually was much more upset when he was talking the market down, versus talking it up. But it is much different to argue fundamentals versus cheerleading. I have no problem with what he is saying, because that is his job. It doesn't mean I believe it, because as you can see, I have some very valid technical and economic reasons for not believing.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 09:55 AM) 1. "other less biased media outlets"? Than WSJ and Crain's? WTF? 2. The housing market has all the signs of a dead cat, because it has all the signs of hitting a floor. That's why everything we're seeing now is positive. There will probably be one more dip, or a leveling, into early next year, as the tax incentives wear off, but that's expected and not a bad thing at all. The only two things that are really worriesome for the next year or two in housing are increased unemployment (which we'll probably see at least a little bit of), and the looming inflation issue's effects on mortgage rates. And those are definitely big. But I think the overall strength is building - and we'd likely see a slow, choppy rise over the next few years. Downticks as rates go up and employment goes down, upticks when employment goes up again. 3. As for history bearing you out about unemployment, that is only partially true. Its always the laggard. Economic growth needs people to have jobs, but typically the growth starts around when unemployment tops, not after. Then they move in concert. That's why the market has priced in some spiky growth next 2 quarters, but sustained, more predictable growth next year. Inflation is the scary monster next year, IMO. That is the biggest X factor in how quickly we recover, or if we dip deeply again, in 2010. 1.Crains and WSJ do their best business when markets are good. Its the same reason CNBC is a market cheerleader. 2. That is the argument in a nutshell. Personally I am not sticking my finger into that bottom yet. I don't believe that the fundementals are ready yet. 3. This recession is a bit different because of the confidence factor. The worse things are, the more scared people get, and the longer it will take them to wade back into the spending pool. I don't believe that confidence will really return to the system until people are working and aren't in fear of losing their jobs. That hasn't happened yet.

I love to watch AJ play the game. I have ever since he was with the Twins. I wish we had a team full of guys who had the baseball IQ that AJ has. If we did, we would be running away with the AL Central. People don't like him, because they don't like to be made to feel stupid. AJ does that to a lot of players on a field.

QUOTE (BlackBetsy @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:13 AM) Chris Young was traded for major league talent (Vazquez), a starting pitcher that threw 200 innings for 3 years. I don't know what you call Tony Pena, but major league talent doesn't come to mind. And he's a 50 inning guy. My point is that we have no idea what Brandon Allen would be. Even if he started with a bang, he could fizzle out just as easily, and cost a franchise a hell of a money while they sit on a bust. At this time we just don't know.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:37 AM) One thing to bear in mind when comparing now to before, is that in more modern times, at increasing levels over time, the markets price-in future events faster and more fully. The market has jumped further ahead of the economic event curve. This run-up is in anticipation of their most favored likely scenario - that we are leveling, and probably looking at a slow growth beginning this winter and into next year, with employment leveling and getting better sometime first half of next year. Keep in mind also, that the drop in late 2008 was massive, even in some ways dwarfing the biggest long-term drops ever. People took their money out. Now, per an article I just read (WSJ or Crains, I can't remember which), people are getting back into contributing heavier in 401k's and IRA's again. That institutional bump is also probably a factor here. I don't buy the modern bias anymore. It wasn't too long ago that people believed that the market has gotten so effecient at pricing in information, that a negative PE could be interpreted as a good thing. 10 years later over 90% of the dotcoms are busts or buyouts. I still believe in history and understanding what the numbers are telling you, and why they are saying what they are. The housing market has all of the signs of a deadcat bounce. Unemployment is still rising, as is the hidden unemployment of people who either have been taken off of the official roles because they have exhausted their benefits, or have taken much less paying/part time work out of desparation. The other big factor in homebuying is ease of credit, and that hasn't really changed that much in the last 10 months or so either. Also remember that employment lags confidence in the system by 6-12 months, and foreclosures also lag unemployment by about the same margin. There is still a large chunk of supply that hasn't come onto the housing market, not to mention, much like the hidden auto demand, there is also the hidden housing supply of people who want to sell their houses, but feel that they can't for one reason or another (worried about losing job, upside down on loan, houses not selling in area so not trying, etc). Even if hiring really did take off today, it would be a year to two years before you could really point to a true housing recovery. More numbers I have seen bantered around as proof are the durable goods and GDP revisions... This is pretty simple stuff to explain away as well. The two biggest components in durable goods are airplanes and autos. Autos numbers being reported are in the midst of the cash for clunkers bounce. Once you remove auto numbers from durable goods, that number becomes near zero growth. That same growth is also responsible for a good chunk of GDP growth. Remember, no one seemed to be able to forecast how successful this program would be, which means it wasn't factored in as "expected" in any of the growth figures for Q3. Now moving on to Q4 you have removed pretty much all automotive demand from this system, both pent up demand and the future demand from people who realized that this was the best deal they were going to ever see, so they moved and took delivery sooner than they probably would have. As for other durables, people who are employed and able to buy are also still scared of losing their jobs, as unemployment is still increasing. If you are scared of losing your job, you aren't going to run out and spend savings money to buy a new fridge or TV unless you have to do so. The proof here is that savings rates in the US are still at levels we haven't seen in decades, and again, even the slight dip in the number can be explained by the artificial demand of cash for clunkers spending. I also saw your point about articles of people investing in the stock market, but I am still reading articles about people who are afraid to invest in the same market, in other, less market biased media outlets. The Sunday Tribune just had one. Finally I really believe that we have to see unemployment take a real turn before I will believe actual growth is coming. The fundementals of the markets have to change, and not just by artificial government means. For all of those auto sales, does anyone think any jobs are going to be saved? That is the question we should be asking. Until jobs come back for real (not just accounting tricks brought on by people who can't file for benefits anymore, or are working part time/at a fraction of former salaries.) we aren't going to sustain anything. History bears this out, not just me.