max power

QUOTE(Kenny Hates Prospects @ Mar 14, 2008 -> 02:53 AM) There are three causes of escalating contracts: inflation, state of the market, and pressure from the players union which takes the first two into account. Your comment about Japan doesn't make sense. Inflation affects everyone. Why do you think the league minimum keeps going up? Because people are becoming more friendly? No, that's inflation. Inflation is not why baseball contracts have gone up or why the dollar is weak. Some inflation is necessary and inflation has been under control every year since I can remember(there may have been some time in the 90s where I was not economically schooled). So I assumed when you were talking about the weakening dollar you meant overseas. Simple summary, inflation is not why baseball contracts have gone up as they have gone up at higher rates than inflation. Those two lines are a contradiction to me. As you state yourself, Rowand got what he did on the open market because that was what the market paid him at that point of his career following his performance last season, not because of what the future value of his contract will be. Obviously the team is going to consider if the player is likely to fulfill those contractual duties. I think the giants and angels did a poor job in that consideration process. I avoided making illogical arguements, yes, most of what I said was based on my opinion about Rowand. What is your point? I am not sure you quite understand what it means to have a logical opinion about something, no offense. If something is free of fallacies its logical. The original argument that contracts always go up enough to make long term deals more attractive and a better investment is a false one. That was the entirety of my argument but I am happy to elaborate here for you so you understand. Why do you think players always want more years on their deal? Management certainly does not unless its the most reliable of players. Even then the one who will push for the most length is the player. You are just repeating what I said and leaving out the bulk of my argument. You agree its riskier. Ok. Obviously him getting injured is a possibility, which I already mentioned, especially the brand of baseball he plays in the field. That is just a minor risk compared to the point of my argument. I mentioned it clearly a few times now, the main one in fact, why I think he was overpaid and why its risky. He is coming off a career year and just isn't as good and I think his contract will end up hurting the organization like GMJ did for the same reasons GMJ's did. Both are long term deals after career years at the plate. Both had great years in the field that year too. To me, they are very comparable unlike your example down below. This has nothing to do with future value of contracts. It has everything to do with assessing risk and reward in a current market. The angels blew their assessment, time will tell if the giants did. It probably won't be as bad as that deal, but it won't look pretty IMO. Of course I picked the best example or why your argument is flawed. It still is flawed. The argument you presented was that inflation(you're right you really are no economist) and it being a long contract because contracts always go up, make it a good deal in two years. Contracts might always go up slightly but they certainly do not always go up enough to justify their length and price. If arron plays like his career average, he will have made 24 million dollars at that point. That is money already paid. Someone may want to pick up that contract at that point only if you add cash. We have no idea at this point IF contracts will continue to rise as they have, the country is likely to suffer a recession as a whole, meaning leisure activities like baseball will suffer at least in comparison, and revenue will likely be less. These are all reasons why you look at things from an open market standpoint and when some buyer comes in and pays way more than any other offer like in Tori's deal, other deals like it also get skewed and players are overpaid. Maggs is far more talented, and had a far more consistent career before signing that contract. The widely known reason he was a bargain on the open market was because of his injury and because of the recent meteoric rise in contract pay. Most importantly, its logically false to compare a period of a few years in the past where baseball was thriving to a future period that is unknown and does not look good. Salary's during many periods of time did NOT rise like they did recently. As you mentioned up above, this is an investment, and you don't assume past performance is an indication of the future. Your argument is entirely based on this widely known rule of what not to do while investing. What you should do while investing is evaluate risk and reward. I think the giants blew that evaluation, because for that contract to be worth what it is in this market, he will have to play similar to his career best numbers. That is Texsox's current argument, that he will, and one that is valid. Its an opinion, one I disagree with, but there isn't any fallacies involved. Longest post ever by me.

Your link doesn't work. Dave roberts eh? Bleh.

QUOTE(WilliamTell @ Mar 14, 2008 -> 12:27 AM) I have a faster bat speed than everyone in the league...........with my plastic bat. Even faster than juan uribe and his broom stick?

QUOTE(BearSox @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 09:52 PM) I think I have more bat speed then Dye. He has looked like a rusty gate up at bat for most of last season and throughout what I have seen in the spring so far. As for least talked about, it's Thornton. On a side note, Konerko is getting a lot of posts about how some have his bags packed for a trade already. lol. Do you swing the same weight bat as he does?

QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 05:28 PM) Coming to a ballpark near you this July 31st... Jerry Owens in LF Mister Anderson in CF Carlos Quentin in RF and Nick the Swish at 1B They have to trade paulie sometime in may for that to be possible if I recall correctly. I don't see them giving up that early. Also dye has a full NTC for '08. So your situation gets even more unlikely unless those two get injured.

A constant discussion here is with crede & fields. Another one is with the borderline outfield guys like owens & anderson. They don't need to be on the pole because they are so often talked about, not for the opposite reason.

Okay, I signed up but it doesn't show up on my 'fantasy home' page. Weird.

I signed up.

Jim Thome - People talk about how nice a guy he is and some fear injury for him. They also talk a lot about his struggles against LHP. Jermaine Dye - Not too much talk about him, except once again, some people fear he might get slowed by injury and have an 'off' year. Jose Contreras - Plenty of talk about how bad he sucks. Mark Buehrle - Also plenty of talk, but more about how much they like him. He was unofficially voted favorite player I believe. Matt Thornton - My pick. Kind of looked over. No one expects too much or too little from him this year. Pablo Ozuna - I suppose the log jam at second brings up a little about him, but there's not too much going on there. Bobby Jenks - Doesn't get too much attention, as most people here are incredibly negative. Still got talked about a lot last year during the record tying streak Paul Konerko - Also not too much controversy, so not too much talk. Gets called slow a lot. Rightfully so. John Danks - The jury is still out on Danks, and the jury likes to blabber on a lot. That's my take.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 02:15 PM) Well Max, you seem to care waaay more about this issue then I. Without hardly any deep analysis of the upcoming free agents, without spending hours pouring over the upcoming financial situation for MLB owners. Without checking in with Rowand, I took a wild guess that he was going to continue to get better, and contracts would continue to increase. And I totally forgot about Mathews Jr. Would you mind if I ran all my posts by you before I post so I don't make such ridiculous predictions again? Not sure why you think I care so much. I just think he is terribly over paid, you don't, and your argument wasn't logical to me, so I thought I'd try to understand it through discourse.

I hate to say it but if soreness is the only thing that keeps owens from being handed a starting job, I'm all for soreness in his groin area.

I think we should just have a war to settle this whole argument. It'll be like nothing ever done before.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 07:53 AM) It isn't necesarily his hitting that has excited me, all though that doesn't hurt. Now that it is sounding like he is finally getting what it means to be a major league player, he has a real shot at playing to his potential, which has been what excited me the most about Anderson. He has a chance to be an upper 1/3 CF in the majors if he is willing to work at it. In today's game of baseball that seems to be worth about $13 million a year on the open market. One more thing that I would add to my post and yours is ozzie's reported attitude about him. He has done a total 180 and I have always believed that anderson had the talent and was only lacking the right mental approach.

Yeah, you're right, I did need to reread that.

QUOTE(Kenny Hates Prospects @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 06:39 AM) Always isn't the word, but I agree with Tex in that Rowand's contract will likely be a bargain two years from now. It's hard to expect that everyday players manning premium positions will get paid equal or lesser amounts as the US dollar continues to fall. Rowand signed a five year pact, and just for quick rough reference, the $12 million he agreed to in 2007 dollars would have only been worth about $10.6 million in 2003, five years before. Rowand's contract will devalue over time, and if he's still at least as productive as he was when he signed the deal, by the end of the contract he will most likely be playing for no less than $1.4 million or so cheaper. I'm no economist but what I've been reading seems to indicate there is very good chance that by the end of his contract we'll all be in bomb shelters fighting rats for bread and thinking about what a good deal that was Sabean. Why are you bringing up the falling price of the dollar? Its not as if rowand lives overseas or spends a bulk of his money there. The only other case in which the falling price of the dollar could be applicable is if Japan starts competing for our players. Contracts in baseball have gone up recently but you don't compare the future value of them when evaluating them. Its not as if you just say, well we paid him 24 million the last two years, but NOW its a good contract because its 3 years 36 million. Logically, that doesn't make any sense to me. My argument is that he is over paid right now. A large portion of the money will be paid in the next few years. It being a long contract after a career year makes it even riskier, not a 'bargain' because he may not perform close to the level of that amount of money, he may get often injured, and then San Fran will be stuck with him. Let me ask you this, was gary matthew jr's contract a bargain? Its five years too, so by your logic, it must be.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2008 -> 07:00 AM) You are right. All the giddiness for him is based on a few spring training games, but there does seem reason for optimism with Anderson. No, he is not right. It also has to do with his college career, minor league career, improvement in the second half of 06, his spring last year, and his defense.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 12, 2008 -> 11:44 PM) BTW, Illinois sits further south than Kentucky and Virginia. The vast majority of the land and more importantly population, since we are talking about people's actions in this thread, does not.

I bet a quarter of my posts are about brian anderson. I just don't think he's had a fair chance at the bigs. Some misguided poster in here said he shouldn't get another chance because he was 'terrible for half a season!' Come on. It was his first chance at consistent starting time in the bigs, and in the second half of that season, he improved a great deal. Should we stop everyone who sucks for their first half a season from ever playing at the major league level?

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 12, 2008 -> 10:40 PM) Contracts always go up. There will be guys signing in two years for more money with less skills. So every contract in baseball that is long term is a spectacular deal because 'they always go up'? That's the only argument you've presented.

I almost mentioned in the "buehrle to start opening day" thread that ozzie said otherwise some time ago. From what I read ozzie sees the two as equals, and the opening day starter was going to be determined by who was the # 3,4 and 5 pitchers.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 11, 2008 -> 09:31 PM) It will look like a bargain in two years, just like Maggs. You're delusional.

I don't believe that survey at all. Obama wins north dakota, iowa, minnesota, washington, oregon, arkansas, colorado, and north dakota? Not likely.

The only thing that makes it close is you saying "in their prime." That can be made to read 2006 for joe and any one of a number of awesome years for Ventura. Ventura was the better defensive player, and much more reliable. He had a better eye and was a better baseball player. The only thing joe might have is more power, but I'm not even convinced that is true. Robin's 1996 blankets joe's 2006 in every category including defense.

I can't think of a time cash has gotten added when a deal like crede's was on the block or a time the sox have added cash to a deal. Its unlikely imo, so I think you are better off guessing what he'd net without adding cash.

QUOTE(scenario @ Mar 5, 2008 -> 04:16 PM) Link Owens, Quentin hurting By Dave van Dyck, 2:30 p.m. TUCSON, Ariz. -- The White Sox have shut down outfielders Jerry Owens and Carlos Quentin for at least "a couple of days" because of injuries, according to manager Ozzie Guillen. Owens, who has taken the early lead as leadoff man/center fielder, continues to be bothered by a nagging groin pull that has bothered him for several days. "I don't like the way he was running the bases," Guillen said. "The key for him is his legs and we have to keep those legs fresh. ... There's no reason for him to go out there and hurt himself again. All of a sudden a minor injury could become a big injury. We learned that from having [scott] Podsednk. Pods would go from a little soreness to a big deal." Quentin, acquired in an off-season trade with Arizona, is clearly falling behind this spring as he comes back from left shoulder surgery to repair labrum and rotator cuff tears. The soreness affects his swing more than his defense, though Guillen characterizes the situations as "not a big deal." "This kid is going to be here for good and I think he was creating bad habits with his swing and it led to some soreness, but he'll be fine," Guillen said. "If it was the start of the season, he could play. But rather than have him push it and lose one more week, we are holding him back. I think it's the best for him. "[He's] a workaholic. We have to monitor him real close, because he's different than other kids. But he bounces back real well from injuries. He's not hurt, he's just sore. But in the meanwhile, when you're sore and it's in the back of your mind, you create bad habits. This is to protect him." Speed doesn't slump, it just gets injured.