Dick Allen

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 08:10 AM) For $15 million per year? Adam Dunn put up a 115 RC+ in 2012. Was that a $12 million performance? A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years. IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez. I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old. Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:47 AM) Dick Allen, please try to read and comprehend my entire argument instead of picking one word out of the first sentence and going on a tangent. The 86 was just factually his lowest, it had almost NOTHING to do with my argument. I did not make an argument that the guy might put up an 86 wRC+ any time soon. I have accepted that the guy has been around 120 his entire career and stated it plainly. He IS a consistently good hitter. But according to everything on the internet so far, he's not commanding a contract in line with a 120 wRC+ DH. That's that's the issue. I don't hate the guy, I just don't want to pay him like he's going to put up a 166 wRC+ for four years when he isn't even likely to do it once. And no one is expecting him to put up a 166. I'll take the 120 and roll with it.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:17 PM) And 35-year old 125 wRC+ DHs get like 2yr/$24m. If that's where we are, then it's a different discussion. Before last year, Victor Martinez's career, offensively, spanned from 86 wRC+ to 130 wRC+. Last year, he put up 166 wRC+. That's SO much better. Even if you ignore the possibility of age-related decline, you have got to be suspicious at a guy who suddenly hits 40% better after 12 years of remarkably consistent performance. So when you say it's "worth the risk," I really don't understand. I mean EVERY free agent presents a risk, I'd argue that if one was worth the risk, it wouldn't be one that DOESN'T have so many obvious signs that his performance was flukey. I'm not saying we all wouldn't like 2014 VMart in our lineup, but that's just not what is going to happen if we sign him. It's the same thing with Shields. They've been awesome, but we can't afford to push the chips in on guys that are obviously riskier than the others. Amazing how you try to spin this. His 86 was when he was injured in 2008. Other than that year and 2013 when he was coming back from missing a season due to an offseason injury and struggled to start but hit .361/.413./500 the second half, his wRC+ has been over 120 every year since 2004 when it was 119. A consistently good hitter who Steamer is projectimg to put up a 139 next year. I am getting this stuff for Fangraphs. I thought you would be impressed, you aren't going to tell me they are full of s*** are you?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) But out of those, only 2 of them were what you just said was the waste of money - trying to be cheap. Keppinger was bought coming off a career year under the assumption that guys who don't strike out a lot don't fall off a cliff in their 30s (where have I heard that recently)?. Downs was a veteran brought in for fair money under the assumption that guys in their late 30s don't fall off a cliff when they have certain projectable skills. Both of those guys were guys brought in at fair market value to fill an immediate need. Belisario and Paulino was trying to be cheap and bring in guys who could improve, and yes, they did not work, while on the other hand Putnam and Noesi did. And just to note, out of the 4 guys you listed, the majority of the money was taken up by the veteran guys brought in for fair market value to be immediate contributors. Signing cheaper players who were injured or released is often being cheap. I don't think they are thinking cheap this offseason. I will put it another way. Signing Victor is an effort to win. Signing someone like Butler who will no be cheap but cheaper I MO would be the proverbial spending money to spend money. Butler isn't going to help the White Sox win.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Flowers is handling the position defensively. Montero would be an incremental upgrade, and we'd still be lousy offensively at catcher. And of course, I 'm sure people want to send a good prospect along for this marginal upgrade. Why the love of high priced declining veterans? Because they are obtainable? Of course they are obtainable. Danks is one of those - he's obtainable. But would you want your team trading for John Danks? Says the guy who wants Alex Rios back.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:25 PM) This certainly hasn't been the White Sox's problem the last 5+ years, it's been expensive guys who don't perform. They have had a lot of guys not perform. Keppinger, Downs, Belisario, and Paulino was a total waste of about $22 million.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:17 PM) And 35-year old 125 wRC+ DHs get like 2yr/$24m. If that's where we are, then it's a different discussion. Before last year, Victor Martinez's career, offensively, spanned from 86 wRC+ to 130 wRC+. Last year, he put up 166 wRC+. That's SO much better. Even if you ignore the possibility of age-related decline, you have got to be suspicious at a guy who suddenly hits 40% better after 12 years of remarkably consistent performance. So when you say it's "worth the risk," I really don't understand. I mean EVERY free agent presents a risk, I'd argue that if one was worth the risk, it wouldn't be one that DOESN'T have so many obvious signs that his performance was flukey. I'm not saying we all wouldn't like 2014 VMart in our lineup, but that's just not what is going to happen if we sign him. It's the same thing with Shields. They've been awesome, but we can't afford to push the chips in on guys that are obviously riskier than the others. He was awful the first 2 months on 2013 after missing 2012. He hit .361/.413/.500 the second half of 2013. I think he is a good bet to put up a 125 or higherwRC+ the next couple of years. Signing guys like Butler is being cheap which often gets expensive.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) What is going crazy to you? I would say guaranteeing him $60 million would be crazy. If it has to be 4 years I would think the 4th year should be an option that could be guaranteed based on performance.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 01:45 PM) Surely you can see the worry about citing his career numbers as a projection of what he'll do in his 36-38 year old seasons. (Articles showing how far most players are falling back by those ages cited here, Here,Here.) Considering he had his finest season at 35 I wouldn't put much into what typically happens. He was down the first half of 2013 after missing 2012 but has been on fire the last year and a half. Sure there is risk. But this gamble makes sense as long as it doesn't go crazy.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 12:58 PM) I don't want anything to do with him. Bad age, bad injury history, definite draft pick compensation, position limited, and coming off the best year of his long career in a time when there is certainly no reason to believe his skills have suddenly blossomed. No reason to believe he can repeat what he just did, but he'll get paid like he's expected to do just that. Let's let some other team make that mistake. Clearly had his best season but still has a career wRC+ of 125. The guy can hit.

The other thing to consider is with Sale and Q signed for the long term there really isn't anyone you have to come up with big bucks the next 3 years to sign. Rodney is not going to be a guy that signs himself to something delaying free agency. The stars are aligned just like with Abreu. As long as Detroit doesn't go nuts and there are signs they are getting close to their limit, this is a great gamble to take. Abreu and Martinez would be a dynamic duo.

His offensive game ages well. The only question is can he stay healthy. If he signs for 3 years he will be 38 when the contract expires. Bring him on.

It appears Rose is out tonight. Jimmy gets Buckets is back. I read an article wwhere Calipari said Rose has a very low threshold of pain. Taj also out. Rose is in uniform.

If the Sox do sign Victor, for $300,000 to $400,000, I would be willing to relay the signals to him from the bleachers.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Nov 1, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) Rose has missed 2 and a half out of the last 3 seasons. Until proven otherwyise it looks like he is just one of those guys who can't stay healthy. It is frustrating but landing on a foot happens. At least it wasn't trouble with the knee after no contact.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 1, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) I still don't understand why this is so impossible. IF the players they're signing all make since I could certainly see it. Now the chances on them being able to "beat" every other team on these guys that make sense might be rather slim, but hypothetically speaking if their offers do get em I don't see them capping their spendings. The one problem they are going to have is many teams who spend a lot of money are looking for the exact same things the White Sox are looking for. So the top pf the line guys are going to cost a lot in either cash if they are free agents or talent in a trade, so I would imagine most of the White Sox holes are going to be filled by lower tiered guys they think project well.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 01:53 PM) I like the quote that Theo used: "It came down to be loyal to Rick or be loyal to the organization". "The organization is more important that one single person". Exactly. I wonder why Theo didn't go after Andrew Freidman to be the GM and replace Hoyer. Freidman is a better GM. I understand what they did, but it is a BS line. There have been plenty of opportunities to bring in better than what they have and they have passed. “Today we made the difficult decision to replace Rick Renteria as manager of the Chicago Cubs. Yeah Theo, you made that decision today. His first sentence is a lie.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) I'd suggest it may be more important to have managing and coaching staffs familair with the playoffs, than players. Game 7 was won by SFG in part due to a managing gaffe (the bunt) and a baserunning gaffe that should never happen (sliding into first). No guarantee what would have happened in either case, but in both cases, poor leadership caused poor decisions that gave the Royals fewer chances to win. I think Hosmer diving into first being on a manager or coach is a little far fetched. I bet that has occurred under everyone. It is a stupid move and everyone knows it. Sometimes you can't fight your instincts.

QUOTE (Friend of Nordhagen @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 09:53 AM) Maddon's great. But I have a few observations, and potential pitfalls, regarding his hiring: (1) Two weeks ago, Renteria was swell because of the progress made by Castro and Rizzo. Why mess with that? (2) If we've learned one thing from the dominance of sabermetrics, it's that the front office guys run things, all the way down to the field. (Ask Art Howe and even Terry Francona about that.) Maddon is a lot of things, but one thing he is not is a shrinking violet. I'll be curious to see how it works out with Epstein and Hoyer. (3) There seems to be some groundswell that Joe's presence will lure free agents. But if the reason for Maddon's reputation was his ability to handle YOUNG players, how do we know he can actually handle a team with those veterans? In fact, the best Rays veterans were lost because of budget (Shields, Crawford). What lures free agents is money. Joe's a nice guy but I didn't see any of the big names take a pay cut to play for him in Tampa.

Maybe the Sox should consider talking Jeter out of retirement. He has a ton of playoff experience.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 08:45 AM) If there's one thing I have utmost confidence in the Cubs to accomplish it's making their manager look bad. Yes, but that is usually on the field. They are going to make Rick Renteria one of the most sympathic figures getting paid a few million to do absolutely nothing in baseball history. He'll probably show up on Dr. Phil.

What kind of playoff experience did the 2005 White Sox have when they went 11-1? Caulfield needs some meds.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/...me-in-the-game/ The Cubs almost have to admit they pursued Maddon illegally to make him not look bad.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/10/30/t...ering-troubles/ Unlikely that a player would go to the Rays...as this possible tampering situation is MUCH under much different circumstances The way this went down, one would have to be very naive to think the Cubs didn't have some sort of contact with Maddon before he opted out, or at least let it be known through "intermediaries" their interest and what they would be willing to pay. One problem is technically just about every team tampers in some form. Another is unless it is totally admitted, unless you want to spend a lot of money and time, which will probably offset any award you may receive, you probably aren't going to prove it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 06:10 PM) And yet one could get probably 18-20 head managing jobs in baseball and the other would be EXTREMELY lucky to get a 1st or 3rd base coaches' job. Now why is that? You actually made my point. Ozzie won more often managing the White Sox than Joe did managing the Rays and won more WS. Now Maddon is a lock to lead a team that has not won in over 100 years to heights he has never been, and Ozzie is a bum, just like Dusty, and Lou and the great Rudy Jaramillo. Leo Mazzone was a pitching guru until he got bad pitchers. Then no one would hire him.