Dick Allen

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Not sure how much I like it, but I'm beginning to think that they acquired Shuck to be the regular left fielder. Maybe they intend to platoon him with Danks. Oddly enough, Shuck seems to hit lefties better, even though he's a left handed hitter Danks has been pretty decent vs. RHP, and is still considered the best defensive outfielder in the organization. If that's the plan, I wish they would move Avi to LF, when Danks starts, as he is unquestionably a better defender. I would put the chances of the White Sox acquiring Shuck with the intention of him being the regular LF at 0%.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 09:00 AM) There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved. Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value. All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary. Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit. Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here. So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO. The problem is, there is no way the Rockies eat salary and trade CarGo for some B level at best prospects. Salary dumping CarGo probably costs the Rockies more money in the long run than just paying him to play or sit on the DL for them.

Rasmus' career stats, and CarGo's career numbers away from Coors are almost identical.

They will want a CarGo in his prime return.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) I'd rather see Viciedo dealt for Castro than Viciedo dealt for Dominic Brown. Pass on both. If you don't like Viciedo or Flowers at the plate, you won't like Castro or Brown.

Jason Castro .222/.286/.366 151 strikeouts in 512 PA Tyler Flowers .241/.297/.396 159 strikeouts in 442 PA If it's an upgrade, it's pretty slight. OTOH if it would take Sale or Abreu to get Castro, what could the Sox get for Flowers?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) A guy batting .250 got 4 hits in one game. His batting average must be wrong! Totally the same thing.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) Rose is "questionable" tonight and Noah is doubtful. Bummer. I don't remember the last time a Bulls player was questionable and actually played. So I would imagine the line up is going to look like last night. Jimmy Gets Buckets was having a slight problem with his thumb last night. So that injury isn't fully healed either. 4 games in 5 nights after 3 games in 4 nights is a crazy way to start the season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:03 PM) There are only 3 governors in the United States, so a 1 in 15 event would only occur every 5 election cycles, you're right. 82 % chance Quinn would lose in 2010 66% chance Quinn would win in 2014/ The 1 in 5 chance occurred in 2010 and the 1 in 3 chance occured in 2014. That is a 1 in 15 probability both of those occurring using his numbers, 6.6%.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) Wtf? Of course there is. He predicted more than 1 race. See how accurate those predictions were on the whole when weighted based on the probability he gave them. Not really. I could read a newspaper and see what the polls say and throw out numbers, and be really accurate. His numbers were based on his info obtained election day: 1/5 of Quinn winning in 2010. 1/3 of Quinn losing in 2014. Just bad luck it was the 1 time in 15 both those outcomes occurred ?

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) Republicans outperformed the polls pretty much across the board. But Silver (and others, like Sam Wang at PEC) would point out that they aren't predicting elections but giving probabilities. Put three balls, one black and two red, in a bag, and you have have a 66% chance of pulling out a red one. If you grab a ball and it's the black one, that doesn't mean the entire mathematical field of probabilities is wrong. Even if he had given Quinn a 90% probability of winning and he still lost, it doesn't necessarily mean his methodology was wrong. It means that polls are analytics are less than perfect edit: you'd also need to check the error bars on the probabilities. So all a bunch of BS. Anyone can pick a number out of a hat and say, those are the probabilities, although they may be wrong. There is no way to really confirm any accuracy. He was pretty accurate with the electoral college last Presidential election.

Nate Silver's advanced metrics for predicting elections needs some work. In 2010, election day he gave Quinn an 18% chance of winning. Yesterday, he gave him a 66% chance.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 11:54 AM) Rose wont outrun any of the criticism until he stays on the court. there really isnt anything more to it This. Most of us think his chronic injuries started with the tearing of his ACL in the playoffs. I think many forget, he missed 27 of the 66 games that season with various injuries. I am a big DRose fan, and have always thought he can get back to what he was. But I must say, this, and I know they are doing the smart thing using caution, is getting discouraging. He is turning into the Ken Griffey Jr. of basketball.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 11:17 AM) This morning Cowley said when he landed and rolled his ankle, his other foot sort of came out of his shoe and that is when it was rolled. I didnt see it, but that is the first i heard of how it happened Funk said the second ankle injury was really nothing he couldn't have played with. They didn't even want to call it a sprain. I read an article where Calipari said DRose has a very small threshold of pain. You give him a little elbow and he is in agony. That concerns me. I do agree, this injury is different than the knee injuries because he just unluckily landed on a foot. Anyone who has played basketball has probably done that. But on the other hand, he has played 1 1/2 games out of 4. The pattern continues. It just makes you wonder what's next. Before he tore his ACL, he was missing games with all sorts of different injuries.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) Soxtalk remains split. A true battle! I will say this, if Victor signs with someone else, I hope he sucks even worse than the posters who don't want him think he will.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) You are insulting ALL of our intelligence(s?) by pretending to be dense about this. Also note the word "nearly" in what you quoted above. Abreu is clearly a special case to everyone here, and you know it, so you can stop pretending I painted myself into some corner that you made up. Made up? Here's what you wrote again: but they are always most valuable on day one. I will give you a break. Your boy Keith Law did say it was a bonehead move by the White Sox. By the time they are any good, he will be in freefall.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) Do you seriously, SERIOUSLY not see the difference between Jose Abreu and Victor Martinez? Seriously? And the problem with free agents is that they are nearly ALWAYS diminishing assets. Their rate of decay varies, but they are always most valuable on day one. That is your quote. Jose Abreu is a diminishing return. Quit insulting my intelligence. Of course I see the difference. But you have to pay up to get Jose Abreu. I am sure you are happy they didn't wait until they could win before signing him. And I fully expect them to contend next year. That apparently is another difference we have.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:02 AM) Apparently you were only focusing on the bad signings then? You didn't mention the big one, nor did you mention all of the little things that have worked otu. I was focused on dumpster diving signings because that is what many here are arguing to do instead of trying to sign good hitters. But again, you made my point. Thanks.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:06 AM) When has signing a 36 year old to a 3-4 year guaranteed free agent contract (and not a convicted in the court of public opinion PEDS user) ever worked out in baseball history when that player was coming off an anomalous statistical career timeline performance in his contract year, which happened to be in his mid 30's? You are just blowing off his typical seasons. It isn't like he was garbage and then all of a sudden..... And I doubt anyone is thinking he will match his 2014 season in 2015. I think the White Sox would take his typical season. Paul Molitor worked out pretty well for Toronto. Harold Baines worked out pretty well for the White Sox and Baltimore. That is 2. There are some others.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:42 AM) Nice switch of arguments. I am not switching arguments. You made my point. You have to spend money to sign good players. Besides, if the White Sox do improve just a little bit, the cost for signing a free agent will become a 1st round pick if they wait. Again, I wouldn't go 4 guaranteed years for Martinez. 3 with performance based incentives to make it 4, but he is perfect for the White Sox line up.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:35 AM) The same winter they did that, they dropped a record contract on some dude named Abreu as well. But they aren't supposed to spend money until they are ready to win. Just ask Keith Law. Signing Abreu was dumb.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:21 AM) $4/5 million isn't going to kill the team. At absolute worst, if you waived the guy, someone would claim him for just his salary. I am pretty sure with arb awards, you can waive him in spring training, if it ever came to that, and only be responsible for 20% of the award.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:18 AM) So you think we need 1.5 starting pitchers to compete and you're still wanting us to spend $15 million on a DH? Absolutely. Fix the bullpen, sign a 4 or 5 starter and Victor. Look to make a trade for a corner OF, and if the better players stay healthy, the team is way more than competive. Hahn is going for it. It was in his quotes at the end of the year. He doesn't want to waste Sale, Q and Abreu any longer. He moved away from the acquiring pieces that had to be part of their long term core line. If Hector Noesi is the difference from fielding a competive team and a non competitive team, there isn't a MLB team that is not competitive.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 09:15 AM) JR is smart, they have this profit / lose marginal for every yr of that yr expenses and profit. yeah, he may have lost for 2013 but no one factoring the profits the other yr. nor are they factoring other profits that is not listed that is associated with the running of the org. being smart and taking a smart gamble can get the sox a player like Hector Noesi and looses like Paulino. Dumpster diving...... i love it. the sox did not become a 2 billion org for nothing. I am one of the few who is not sold on Noesi.

Trade deadline is not a good way to judge. Teams could be budgeted out, or may be looking at a different guy. The offseason is quite different. Teams aren't committed to the same players, etc. Hahn knows if he could trade Viciedo. If he doesn't want him and can't trade him, he will be non tendered. If he is tendered. He either wants him or knows he can get something for him.