Dick Allen

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 09:48 AM) He did have a point where he notes that people are counting on Rodon to do the same thing for us in order for the Sox to be competitive next year. Rodon was the 3rd pick. Finnegan the 17th. Rodon is by far the more decorated prospect. Finnegan has 34 innings as a pro. Banking on him being a big part of a playoff rotation is a bit crazy.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 09:25 AM) The Giants have averaged about the same number of regular season wins (87-90) in 2010/12/14 and have three World Series championships to show for it. It's simply a matter of getting there. Seattle was badly fading down the stretch. It wasn't THAT close where you can say they BARELY made it. Don't compare the Royals with the Giants. That is beyond silly. The Royals had not "been there" in 29 years. There is no reason to think with their limited resources ( I actually read where trading Alex Gordon is a possibility) that they are the next Tampa Bay Rays. You seem to have Finnegan in the HOF already, but chances are you are more than a little overboard.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 09:11 AM) WHY? They have Ventura/Duffy as co #1's going into the season, then Guthrie and Vargas for the back end. It would be like assuming the White Sox would need a pitcher when they only have one rotation hole, when in reality there are probably two more(depending on your feelings regarding Danks and Noesi) and that's IF Rodon makes it in 2015. Ventura Duffy Finnegan (the Royals see him exactly as the White Sox view Rodon) Vargas Guthrie Kyle Zimmer (depending on health, was pulled from AFL) Sean Manaea Liam Hendricks Lamb Binford If they're going to make ANY move in their rotation, it's for a one year veteran "placeholder" to have as additional insurance for Finnegan, but I'm not even convinced 100% they will go that route. They might even look at Aaron Crow as a possibility, although it's a longshot.... The Royals have DH and RF (do they add another big name or platoon Dyson with someone?), and the only other starting position that's open for debate about changing is 2B with Omar Infante, but they absolutely don't HAVE to get rid of him, either. So you're telling me if the White Sox had THREE high draft picks all close to ready for the majors....and there was only ONE available spot in the rotation, and then you had three or four other realistic possibilities in Hendricks, Lamb, Binford and Aaron Crow, that you'd STILL pull the trigger on expensive/overpaid veteran starting pitchers in the Peavy/Volquez/Hammel/Vogelsong, etc., tier???? Even with the injury to Zimmer, I think a big-time pitching move is highly unlikely. Their bullpen is about to eat a lot of their payroll, and as bad as Shields was in the postseason, he was really good in the regular season. It is highly doubtful they can replace that, (227 IP 3.21 ERA) and this is a team that barely made the playoffs and 99% of the time would have lost the wild card game. They could be decent, but I doubt we are looking at a run Royals contention.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 08:57 AM) That seems fairly obvious - the Sox aren't primed to be contenders next year when VMart would be most likely to earn his money, and he'd be declining and potentially done when the team was ready to compete. The Royals are at a different point on the win curve and an upgrade in 2015 could make the contract worth it despite the decline years. Let's save the rehashing of whether or not old guys decline and which ones do or don't for another time. Whether or not you agree with the above, that's the reasoning. Why can't the White Sox be contenders next year? The anti Victors are saying his production will not match the contract. That isn't a perfect fit anywhere. If you think Victor can hit, he would be good for the White Sox. If you think he isn't good for the White Sox, he isn't good for a team with less revenue. I don't understand the reasoning of Victor being an upgrade over Butler, but posters actually preferring Butler over Victor for the White Sox.

Why is Victor Martinez perfect for the Royals, but for the White Sox he would be nothing but a bad contract?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 08:04 AM) For those speculating about what it will take to sign V. Martinez, it might be interesting to note what some of the other great hitters are going to be getting paid in their late 30's, and beyond: Age 36 -39 Albert Pujols 25M, 26M, 27M, 28M, Plus 29M at 40, 30M at 41 Robinson Cano 24M each year, plus 24M at 40 Miguel Cabrera 30M, 30M, 30M, 32M, plus 32M at 40 with vesting options for 32M for two more years if top 10 MVP Given that Victor is the only really great left handed hitter in this year's free agent market, I would guess that it will take at least $20 million, per year for the first 3 years, with something close to that for the 4TH. I know that he is pretty much strictly a DH, but he is a switch hitter, and last year helps him make the case that he is aging well. Please don't assume that any of this suggests that I'm advocating signing him to that kind of contract. I'm simply speculating about what it might take. It is possible it will cost that much, but he is pretty much strickly a DH and is a lot older when signing the contract than those you mentioned. On the other hand, they usually do get more than you would think, so who knows? We do know one thing, if the White Sox sign him at whatever price, they can afford him.

That site is having their contest picking where these guys will land. It shows the big difference between baseball and other sports where you basically know where the guys are going. Last year's winner had 27% correct. The best MLBTR writer got about 24%.

The White Sox had to offset the Maddon press conference in some way. Well played, Hahn.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) Steamer isn't useless nor infallible, it's a point of reference. Especially in the instance of some uncommon statistical anomaly, such as Victor Martinez's random career year, it's best to use multiple points of reference. I'm not telling you you shouldn't use it, but rather pointing out that Steamer is not akin to some sort of "FanGraphs official stance" on a player's future performance like you seemed to be implying. Maybe you shouldn't have referenced it to make a point. I actually agree with you and don't think Victor will repeat his 2014 ever again. I just think he is good enough to warrant being paid a lot of money to hit in the middle of the line up for the next few seasons. Someone might go crazy, or he may not want to play for the White Sox. But I hope they are willing to take a gamble with him. Although with J.B Shuck now White Sox property, there may be enough to win now.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) You have amazingly interpretted my post as "Steamer is useless." You are incredible. It is just funny that you throw out Steamer in order to say something makes sense, but when I throw out the same, "theres something better than Steamer". The only reason I used it is because you did earlier. Just be consistent.

I watched from Clark and the river, sitting on a ledge by some plants, above whatever that riverfront bar is. I got there at 5:30, so while the 2 hour wait was annoying and made me cold, when he finally did the walk, I got really nervous. All in all, I thought it was cool. We then went to Portillo's and warmed up with a combo, while watching him from our table do his blindfolded thing. It actually was a really nice angle from the tables closest to the front door.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 12:30 PM) I don't know if I'd be happy with a 125 wRC+ if we pay him $60-70m over four years or so. Maybe that's where we disagree. To me, his career average isn't enough to justify that price out of a DH, and it comes with more risk than average. Another laugher considering you were the one mentioning a lack of comprehension. Go back to my posts when Balta asked me what I considered crazy when talking about his next contract. You will see $60-70 million guaranteed would have fit in my definition.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 12:28 PM) Steamer is just the first system to come out for the coming year -- ZiPS is almost universally considered better, and Marcel is usually factored in as well, heavy-handed as that system is. Anyone at FanGraphs would recommend using several systems for context, so it isn't necessarily true to cite Steamer and say "See! FanGraphs says he's good!" Funny, you mentioned Steamer the other day when someone mentioned a player.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 10:25 AM) George Lucas, yes that George Lucas, owns two of the rooftops, the Cubby Bear and the Sports Corner. He is building the Star Wars museum in Chicago. I get the feeling there is something going on with Lucas, The city and the cubs. George Loukas owns the Cubby Bear and rooftops. Here's his picture. Unless he has had some awful plastic surgery and changed the spelling of his name, unlike the Bears, he is not who you think he is. http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/6002219...igleyville.html

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 10:38 AM) I don't believe you can sign a minor league deal for a number of years. That means the idea of a 7 to 9 year deal is wrong. Again, Balder flat out stated the kid CANNOT sign a major league deal. At that point all you are left with is signing bonus, which is fully taxable under the current international signing system, because of Morcada's age. Even a $10 million deal, becomes a near $20 million deal, as everything over your bonus pool numbers are getting taxed. If a team is over their pool already, like the Yankees, they entire deal would be taxed at 100%. A $50 million deal, really costs them $100 million. A $100 million deal really costs $200 million. And in addition to that, if you aren't over already, you lose the ability to sign guys for TWO years, just so sign this one kid. I also think the signing bonus can be paid in incruments but has to be fully paid in a year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 10:20 AM) So again, you're predicting that he will perform during his age 36 season at a level significantly above his career average. The computer does that because he was so far out of line this year and its projecting decline based on his performance this year, not based on his career average. That projection would equate to him having the 2nd best season of his career next year and that would be far, far beyond the numbers you just wrote. I think that's a fundamental mistake. As I stated but you just ignored, if he put up his career average, we all would be happy. Just pointed out, since fangraphs WAR was so important to you, that their page is projecting a pretty nice season next year. So if you are going to use Fangraphs, you really shouldn't pick and choose which numbers to use. For his career his wRC+ is 125.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) But with his weak baserunning, poor defense when put in, and limitations to the DH spot, he's a 2 fWAR player if he puts up those numbers for a full season in Detroit's ballpark. He put up pretty close to those numbers in 2011 and was a 2.5 WAR player while being better in baserunning and defense than he is right now. You've made a good case that he's a positive player and a good risk at $10 million a year, and would be very much overpaid at $15 million per year if he puts up his career numbers. To support the contract that you're willing to give him (not even the one beyond that he's got a good chance of getting) he has to hit well above his career average during his age 36-38 seasons. If we have to use Fangraphs to determine his worth, on their page a 139 wRC+ is projected for 2015. There is one year well worth it. I am really not all that concerned with how his defense hurts his WAR. I think the way defense is factored into WAR it really WARps the actual value. I think if the Sox paid him $15 million a year and he hit .306/.373/.465, there would be zero complaints that he was overpaid.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 09:25 AM) let me add, he wants to get paid for that 166. or else he would be happy with a 13 mill contract. Pretty much everyone would like to be paid like that. If he does, good for him. The reality is he will have to find someone to pay him like that. .306/.373/.475 . Those are his career splits. It seems to me a lot of people have focused on his career year, which he did have. But his career numbers suggest he is far more than a one year, contract year wonder.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) It's really impressive that you reject any logic that says the normal aging path for players is breaking down by age 35+ and then continue to cite specific players who didn't break down as though it means something. If Martinez was the typical guy breaking down, can you explain to me how he has been able to do what he has been able to do the last season and a half? Every career is terminal. Victor has the skillset that seems to age better than most. If the Sox sign him, I will be very happy. Some will be as happy, and some will be upset apparently. Pretty much how it is with almost every player.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) Were YOU happy with 2012 Adam Dunn? Do you recommend we should try to buy 2012 Adam Dunn at $15m per year for four years? Also, it's NOT riskier trying to buy low on short term guys (excluding Keppinger from your example because he does not fit the mold in any way) because if the worst happens, you can see how easy it was to get those guys off the books. We tried with them, they failed, and they're gone. Our commitments to them have not prevented us from doing anything else. It is, by definition, LESS risky. But it's a strawman to compare the two anyway -- you're not arguing with people who don't want to spend money, you're arguing with people who don;t want to spend money on Victor Martinez. The choice is not "VMart or Felipe Paulino" like you're suggesting. You are correct in saying that eventually the Sox will need to step up and take some risk, but that does NOT mean that we should act like money is burning a hole in our pockets. No one gives a s*** how rich JR is, but we ALL KNOW that there is a cap on the total amount of money the team is going to spend, like it or not, and so we want them to spend it wisely. RE: this line: "but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided." Give me a break. Are you going to suggest that Paul Konerko is the only example of late 30's age-related decline? Yet you do the same thing you are ripping me of when you clamour for Russell Martin. GMAB. Adding mediocre players to a roster is not the way to win. Nothing suggests Victor Martinez is a mediocre player.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 08:35 AM) Paragraph 4: Thinking this guy will fall off a cliff because Paul Konerko fell off a cliff is short sighted. Paragraph 3: This guy won't fall off a cliff, look at Torii Hunter, he didn't fall off a cliff. I used Hunter because there was a post or 2 thinking maybe he can help the White Sox now. We found out this year that the White Sox doctors didn't think Paulie would hold up the entire contract he signed after the 2005 season. I also have pointed out several others in other threads, including Harold Baines, who were very productive. Steamer is projecting a 139 wRC+ for Martinez next year. I broke out my Baseball Prospectus 2010 edition which stated Paulie had old player skills and his days of being a productive player were OVA!He was pretty awesome the next 2.5 years until his wrist surgery and other physical issues, including a balky back. If the White Sox sign Billy Butler, I will project April 24th as the date people get sick of watching him groundout to SS.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 08:10 AM) For $15 million per year? Adam Dunn put up a 115 RC+ in 2012. Was that a $12 million performance? A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years. IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez. I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old. Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:47 AM) Dick Allen, please try to read and comprehend my entire argument instead of picking one word out of the first sentence and going on a tangent. The 86 was just factually his lowest, it had almost NOTHING to do with my argument. I did not make an argument that the guy might put up an 86 wRC+ any time soon. I have accepted that the guy has been around 120 his entire career and stated it plainly. He IS a consistently good hitter. But according to everything on the internet so far, he's not commanding a contract in line with a 120 wRC+ DH. That's that's the issue. I don't hate the guy, I just don't want to pay him like he's going to put up a 166 wRC+ for four years when he isn't even likely to do it once. And no one is expecting him to put up a 166. I'll take the 120 and roll with it.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:17 PM) And 35-year old 125 wRC+ DHs get like 2yr/$24m. If that's where we are, then it's a different discussion. Before last year, Victor Martinez's career, offensively, spanned from 86 wRC+ to 130 wRC+. Last year, he put up 166 wRC+. That's SO much better. Even if you ignore the possibility of age-related decline, you have got to be suspicious at a guy who suddenly hits 40% better after 12 years of remarkably consistent performance. So when you say it's "worth the risk," I really don't understand. I mean EVERY free agent presents a risk, I'd argue that if one was worth the risk, it wouldn't be one that DOESN'T have so many obvious signs that his performance was flukey. I'm not saying we all wouldn't like 2014 VMart in our lineup, but that's just not what is going to happen if we sign him. It's the same thing with Shields. They've been awesome, but we can't afford to push the chips in on guys that are obviously riskier than the others. Amazing how you try to spin this. His 86 was when he was injured in 2008. Other than that year and 2013 when he was coming back from missing a season due to an offseason injury and struggled to start but hit .361/.413./500 the second half, his wRC+ has been over 120 every year since 2004 when it was 119. A consistently good hitter who Steamer is projectimg to put up a 139 next year. I am getting this stuff for Fangraphs. I thought you would be impressed, you aren't going to tell me they are full of s*** are you?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) But out of those, only 2 of them were what you just said was the waste of money - trying to be cheap. Keppinger was bought coming off a career year under the assumption that guys who don't strike out a lot don't fall off a cliff in their 30s (where have I heard that recently)?. Downs was a veteran brought in for fair money under the assumption that guys in their late 30s don't fall off a cliff when they have certain projectable skills. Both of those guys were guys brought in at fair market value to fill an immediate need. Belisario and Paulino was trying to be cheap and bring in guys who could improve, and yes, they did not work, while on the other hand Putnam and Noesi did. And just to note, out of the 4 guys you listed, the majority of the money was taken up by the veteran guys brought in for fair market value to be immediate contributors. Signing cheaper players who were injured or released is often being cheap. I don't think they are thinking cheap this offseason. I will put it another way. Signing Victor is an effort to win. Signing someone like Butler who will no be cheap but cheaper I MO would be the proverbial spending money to spend money. Butler isn't going to help the White Sox win.