Dick Allen

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 01:03 PM) That's comparing apples to oranges buddy. 20 IP for an arm in the pen could represent over 25 percent of a season where as 20 IP for a starting pitcher idealy is only a 10 percent or less sample size. His motion is actually Sale-like know. I think there is a high risk of injury. Sale has been throwing like that forever. This guy just started. I wonder if his older body parts can take the stress.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 11:30 AM) Article speaks for itself. This was really fun to read. Bonus points to anybody who can figure out the Sox guy before reading it, I know I couldn't figure it out. http://grantland.com/features/mlb-transaction-trees/ I got the answer correct, but it was just a lucky guess. Those are fun.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 10:14 AM) Jose Bautista only had 600 PA's by age 25; I don't think he's a comp at all. David Ortiz had a career .351 OBP and a 101 wRC+ through age 25; he knew how to hit. Viciedo doesn't, is sitting at a .298 OBP and 95 wRC+, and he's going in the wrong direction. Viciedo is a strange case. He just turned 20 when he was assigned to Birmingham. What would Courtney Hawkins have done in Birmingham this year? There are flashes. Early in 2014 it looked like he turned a corner. Maybe another year of Steverson would do the trick. This guy seems to have a different hitting coach every year. Steverson was quoted a couple of weeks ago saying how good Viciedo wants to be. You look at his physique and I one would tend to think he probably gets a little lazy, but apparently he is very hard working. You aren't going to get much for him, unless he is some throw in with a bigger trade, which would be fine. If the option is to let him go for nothing or trade him for someone else's crap, I think sticking with him one more year makes sense. I did listen to a Hahn interview at the end of the season, and he was asked about Viciedo's status. He pretty much danced around it.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 09:54 AM) He's shooting 19% on uncontested 3 pointers. I'm convinced he'll be good come jan-feb, let's say post all star break. But it does seem like after every game people are convinced any offensive dry spell would be fixed by Doug McDermott. The dude is like boozer plus/minus territory on the court. They had some guys working out at my gym pre-draft. McBuckets was one. That 19% on uncontested 3 pointers is shocking to me. I saw him hit about 15 in a row in a drill. It was unreal. He wil turn it around.

I liked Morales over LaRoche myself, but LaRoche can play 1B and at this point, I don't think Morales can. So at least with LaRoche, you can have them both in the line up when Abreu is DHing, and he is probably going to have to DH probably a little more than occassionally with his physical issues.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) In the sense that anything is possible, yes. I think Navarro is probably getting some banned help in his offensive production. Not that any team is totally clean. There are probably some real shockers out there, that aren't obvious. Pablo Ozuna is one. But it seems to me, Navarro can easily revert back to his age 25-27 production and actually be much worse than Tyler Flowers.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 09:22 AM) I'd be insulted at that if I were Lester. I would have a hard time being insulted about being offered a contract guaranteeing me more money than I will ever need. I understand he will get more, but in negotiation, rarely is the best offer the first offer.

Here are Navarro's age 25-27 stats 25 .218/.261/.322 26 .194/.270/.258 27 .193/.276/.324 If he is so coveted now, wouldn't it suggest Viciedo can get better?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) His bat is clearly an upgrade, at least for two seasons....but his defense isn't very good. Certainly, that's better than what we saw out of LF in 2013/14, but how much is it actually worth? Are the Sox willing to go to 4 years for a player beginning the downside of his career? Signing Cabrera might only leave $10 million of new spending on the table, and that's going to have to pay for a DH, a closer and a 3 starter in the rotation. Not possible without trading Ramirez and/or dumping Danks and going with Semien/Sanchez/L.Garcia at SS. Until he started juicing, he used to be a good defender. He can throw. One good thing is if he gets suspended the Sox won't have to pay him. Does anyone really think he didn't juice in 2014?

Belisario's xFIP was 3.69. I watch nearly every White Sox game. I am not sold on xFIP, at least for relievers.

KW mentioned a lot of good players are available in trade. Said the Winter Meetings will be an exciting time. He will be helping Hahn put the dream together.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 07:27 PM) Actual WAR the last 2 years: Viciedo: -0.8 fWAR Navarro: 3.8 fWAR. That iis in the past. When making trades and constructing a roster, what you will do is a little more important than what you did.

2015 Steamer projection Navarro 0.3 WAR Viciedo. 0.6 WAR

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:50 PM) Yeah, I get that. I get that you don't think he's for real. You may be right. I mean, I probably only think it's 60/40 that his changes are for real. I'm just saying that it is incorrect to compare this signing to the Paulino/Downs signings, because the Sox think he IS for real. So hopefully they're right about that. I compared it to Keppinger. The Keppinger, Teahen and now Duke families should get down on their knees every night and Thank God for the White Sox.or

I wonder if he is part of the dream.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:01 PM) I'll try to elaborate on the last sentence of that post, because I know it isn't clear. The philosophy you've been arguing for lately is "pay up for premium talent that you clearly need. Scrap heap/upside guys will add up to simply treading water." That's exactly what the White Sox THINK they just did. You personally may think that Zach Duke is overrated, but the Sox and much of the market (as evidenced by his ultimate price tag) see him as high end talent, because he changed something and had fantastic results. So it IS consistent with the philosophy above, even though you disagree with their evaluation of Duke's talent, which is totally fair. So while you may be unhappy about the move in terms of the player they got I think you should be happy about the move in terms of what it foreshadows, which is that the Sox are trying to pay up for good players that fit their needs. And I will elaborate, I believe Zach Duke is not premium talent. He is a journeyman at best player who switched some things up and had a freakishly good season, a season which even you would probably admit was highly unlikely and even more unlikely to repeat. Everyone is looking for LH relief pitching. If it was reasonably thought throughout the league that he could sustain his 2014 performance, he would have been paid more than $15 million. Hopefully, they can get at least a good couple months out of him before the clock strikes midnight. Steamer projects Dayan Viciedo to be twice as valuable as Zach Duke in 2015. I think there would be outrage if the Sox gave Viciedo Duke's contract.

While I would agree if 2 weeks in the minors actually does get the White Sox an extra season of control, it is well worth it especially early when there are some off days and potential postponements. You are talking 2 or 3 starts. That said, if he does make the Opening Day roster and 6 years from now we are cussing Hahn and KW out for doing it, he will have had a really nice career. 6 years is a long time. JR will be in his mid 80s. I doubt he still would be running the team.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 02:13 PM) Just out of curiosity, did he make a list like this last season with Abreu(and if he did, where did he have the Sox) In the comments section, someone mentioned why the Dodgers wouldn't be in on him and Badler replied who said they are not. So he is only speculating.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Which would a be a ridiculous scenario where the Sox build their entire team through free agency. That isn't an issue. You fill gaps with it, and LHP in the bullpen is a gap that had to be filled. I mean, you could turn it around for Miller and say, "If the Sox are going to be spending $10m on bullpen pieces, they will have a team record payroll," or for Martinez and say "If the Sox are going to spend $17m on a DH, they will have a team record payroll." You have to look at everything in context. I don't think this is a slam dunk by any measure -- but I think it's a defensible move in the context of the market. It's at least as defensible as going for Miller. And we now know that Sox are serious about fixing the bullpen. In other words, I totally get it if you don't think Duke is good, but you have to admit that this is NOT the same thing as Downs/Paulino -- they found a guy coming off an incredible season and just gave him a multi-year deal. This isn't a "scrap heap" signing. I think you can totally knock their evaluation of Duke, but the move tiself is definitely in line with the philosophy you've been arguing for lately. Signing a guy who has had one good season since the White Sox won the World Series and paying him for 3 years based off that one season, is NOT the philosophy I have been arguing lately.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 01:42 PM) ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 11m11 minutes ago LeBron’s average of 39.1 minutes/game would be his highest since 2007-08; Kyrie Irving’s 38.4 minutes/game would be highest of his career Thibs must be coaching the Cavs.

AA is a pretty good GM. He got a nice season out of Navarro for $3 million and now will deal him when he costs $5 million and his performance most likely will drop. I don't know if I want anyone named Navarro on the White Sox anymore.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Nice analogy, but I slightly disagree with the bolded. I don't think it's necessarily an inability to properly determine depreciation, I think it's an ability to ignore future depreciation for the sake of success today. The consensus seemed to be that Russell Martin was good for a 4-year contract. Why did Toronto give him a 5-year deal? It's not simply because they figured he will still be good in the 5th year, it's because they need him now and that's what it took to get him onboard. The thing is no team has ever gone bankrupt. One could argue the only thing these bad long term contracts have done, is limited a few teams from shelling out more of them. If the Marlins give the biggest contract in sports, you know one thing, these teams are swimming in cash. So the question is who do you want to pocket it, past their prime players or owners ? Might as well be players, they can at least maybe help your team win.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) I am not a big fan of the idea that you have to move someone for "value's" sake. Many times a players best value to the team is playing on the team, and I feel that numbers don't do Alexei justice. I would be thrilled to keep him for the next two years, and unless the offer blows me away, would have no problem doing so, even if he falls off in hindsight. Yes. I would think if the goal is to win, having a guy on your roster at his "peak value" is a lot better than trading him because he is there.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) Francisco Montas is going to be a top 5 prospect in the White Sox system and there are going to be some publications who list him as a top 100 prospect in the game. If you don't think someone would stash him in the bullpen for a year (or outright convert him to a reliever) to have a chance at that arm, you are mistaken. Rondon is also talented enough that there's no reason to risk losing him. I agree. If Montas has to be on the 40, he will be on the 40. With all the hype, there is no way he wouldn't be picked in the rule 5. Probably first.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 10:17 AM) You can quibble with the numbers exactly some since there are assumptions into what goes into a 1/5 starter but here it is done in terms of fWAR earlier this year. In this compilation, a #4 starter averages 1.8 fWAR, a #5 starter averages ~0.2 fWAR, and last year John Danks put up 0.8 fWAR. So the reality is he is a #4.5 starter.