Dick Allen

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 05:17 PM) The Angels signed owe Hamilton 89 mill/3 years. They'd have to take back at least 60 of that. They'd be better off keeping him and hope for a rebound. He always looked like a lazy ballplayer to me, even when he was good. If the took back Danks and ate all that money, which has been proposed, they save nothing. It doesn't make any sense from any side.

Josh Hamilton is 2 years younger than Victor Martinez using a calendar and who knows what in reality. Why would anyone want his contract on the books for 4 years, no matter what the cost? He lost 30 pounds as soon as he signed with the Angels and has sucked ever since. Why would he get better?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes. Are you expecting a rainout that isn't made up? And if they are 4 games under .500. that is 2 wins from .500, so pretty much the same thing.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) Very interesting article. Thanks for posting it. I've always contended that there are a lot of base hits, in pitches out of the strike zone, providing a hitter is willing to hit the ball where it's pitched. A great "bad ball" hitter is a tremendous asset to an offense. It presents a significant challenge even to a pitcher with great command. wjp may be able to hit his spot, but the hitter can still make good contact. What a great technique for young hitters to try to emulate. Maybe Victor would be able to help some of our young hitters, especially Garcia. That's another intangible that argues for signing him. I have always thought it depended how the player was wired. When he was in his prime, Frank Thomas used to take meatballs a couple inches off the plate. Many people thought, and probably correctly, he should expand his zone a bit in certain situations. The problem is, what if it led him to swing at other pitches, farther out of the zone? If it isn't broke don't fix it, is what the White Sox did, and how could anyone argue? But back to Victor, he hits pitches out of the zone at an incredible clip. His bat isn't slowing as he is ripping 95+ heat better than anyone. The fangraphs said, the contact rate should be declining in his 30's, but his has been rising. He's already an outlier. I think he is really good at least 2 more seasons myself, probably 3, and has to be as good of a bet as any to be hitting as a 39 year old, although if I were offering him a contract, that 4th year wouldn't be guaranteed unless some things were accomplished in the first 3.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) This is where I rarely disagree with Dick Allen. This roster is not a .500 roster. Far from that. Not yet. But by the time spring training starts, I bet most people will think it is a team that probably should be .500. Just getting to average with the bullpen should be encouraging.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) That list is very uninspiring. I would prefer a 37 year old VMart, in his second year of the contract, to any of those guys. I agree. Whether they can get it done is another question. Here is an article the saber guys might like: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/11/5/71...defying-outlier

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) Aren't Avi and Vmart friends...That's something There could be many reasons he might want to play for the White Sox. Chicago is consistently voted favorite city by MLB players. When they are trying to woo these guys , they give a hint of what they are trying to do to improve the team. Maybe he hates Chicago. Maybe he hates White Sox players. But for anyone to say he has no reason to play for them unless they offer him significantly more money than any other team without knowing him, is just hyperbole. Hahn and KW and JR have to sell these guys on winning. Of course, normallly, the highest bid wins anyway. I don't think the bid for Abreu was significantly higher than the bids from other teams. Yet, here he is.

The last time Crawford made it through a season healthy was 2010. Pass.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 10:25 AM) I disagree. I think that because this team is at least a full season away from contention no matter what they do, they might as well stock up the farm system as much as possible this year while also building toward a contender. Yes, it means losing a higher pick next year in all likelihood, however, when you're shifting toward contention, building the farm becomes less of a concern, though it should still exist as a concern. Since we do not know the 2015 roster, how can you say this team is at least one season away? The White Sox don't make the playoffs very often, but a couple of times when they did, they were just about as bad as they were in 2014 the previous season. The 1999 team won 75 games. The 2007 team won 72 games. In 1976, I know, baseball was a lot different, the team was awful and lost 97 games. The 1977 Southside Hitmen won 90. That can get you in the playoffs these days. In 1989 they won 69 games and won 94 in 1990, and it wasn't all because Frank Thomas. He came up in August. As did young Alex. Robin Ventura wasn't exactly ripping the cover off the ball either. They need to acquire a hitter or 2 and a few pitchers, maybe get someone who can catch the ball, and need some guys to develop, but it has been done before. The way it is now, you have a .500 roster, but can win one extra game a month, you are right there.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) Trade Beck and Trayce Thompson. Take on all salary. Make him primary DH/4th outfielder. Sign a left/right fielder capable of playing center for when Eaton gets hurt. Eaton CF Ramirez SS Abreu 1B CarGo DH Garcia LF/RF Rasmus? RF/LF Gillaspie 3B Flowers C Second baseman I would imagine Hahn would do that right now. The Rockies wouldn't. If he has another injury-filled year and puts up bad numbers, IMO, then it is possible to sell it to their fanbase that dumping him for some salary relief makes a lot of sense. It's one thing if you are trading him for some really projectable prospects. It's a baseball move. Trading him for Beck and Thompson is just a financial move. Dumping one of your most popular players to save money will cost you some money.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Not sure how much I like it, but I'm beginning to think that they acquired Shuck to be the regular left fielder. Maybe they intend to platoon him with Danks. Oddly enough, Shuck seems to hit lefties better, even though he's a left handed hitter Danks has been pretty decent vs. RHP, and is still considered the best defensive outfielder in the organization. If that's the plan, I wish they would move Avi to LF, when Danks starts, as he is unquestionably a better defender. I would put the chances of the White Sox acquiring Shuck with the intention of him being the regular LF at 0%.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 09:00 AM) There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved. Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value. All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary. Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit. Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here. So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO. The problem is, there is no way the Rockies eat salary and trade CarGo for some B level at best prospects. Salary dumping CarGo probably costs the Rockies more money in the long run than just paying him to play or sit on the DL for them.

Rasmus' career stats, and CarGo's career numbers away from Coors are almost identical.

They will want a CarGo in his prime return.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) I'd rather see Viciedo dealt for Castro than Viciedo dealt for Dominic Brown. Pass on both. If you don't like Viciedo or Flowers at the plate, you won't like Castro or Brown.

Jason Castro .222/.286/.366 151 strikeouts in 512 PA Tyler Flowers .241/.297/.396 159 strikeouts in 442 PA If it's an upgrade, it's pretty slight. OTOH if it would take Sale or Abreu to get Castro, what could the Sox get for Flowers?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) A guy batting .250 got 4 hits in one game. His batting average must be wrong! Totally the same thing.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) Rose is "questionable" tonight and Noah is doubtful. Bummer. I don't remember the last time a Bulls player was questionable and actually played. So I would imagine the line up is going to look like last night. Jimmy Gets Buckets was having a slight problem with his thumb last night. So that injury isn't fully healed either. 4 games in 5 nights after 3 games in 4 nights is a crazy way to start the season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:03 PM) There are only 3 governors in the United States, so a 1 in 15 event would only occur every 5 election cycles, you're right. 82 % chance Quinn would lose in 2010 66% chance Quinn would win in 2014/ The 1 in 5 chance occurred in 2010 and the 1 in 3 chance occured in 2014. That is a 1 in 15 probability both of those occurring using his numbers, 6.6%.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) Wtf? Of course there is. He predicted more than 1 race. See how accurate those predictions were on the whole when weighted based on the probability he gave them. Not really. I could read a newspaper and see what the polls say and throw out numbers, and be really accurate. His numbers were based on his info obtained election day: 1/5 of Quinn winning in 2010. 1/3 of Quinn losing in 2014. Just bad luck it was the 1 time in 15 both those outcomes occurred ?

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) Republicans outperformed the polls pretty much across the board. But Silver (and others, like Sam Wang at PEC) would point out that they aren't predicting elections but giving probabilities. Put three balls, one black and two red, in a bag, and you have have a 66% chance of pulling out a red one. If you grab a ball and it's the black one, that doesn't mean the entire mathematical field of probabilities is wrong. Even if he had given Quinn a 90% probability of winning and he still lost, it doesn't necessarily mean his methodology was wrong. It means that polls are analytics are less than perfect edit: you'd also need to check the error bars on the probabilities. So all a bunch of BS. Anyone can pick a number out of a hat and say, those are the probabilities, although they may be wrong. There is no way to really confirm any accuracy. He was pretty accurate with the electoral college last Presidential election.

Nate Silver's advanced metrics for predicting elections needs some work. In 2010, election day he gave Quinn an 18% chance of winning. Yesterday, he gave him a 66% chance.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 11:54 AM) Rose wont outrun any of the criticism until he stays on the court. there really isnt anything more to it This. Most of us think his chronic injuries started with the tearing of his ACL in the playoffs. I think many forget, he missed 27 of the 66 games that season with various injuries. I am a big DRose fan, and have always thought he can get back to what he was. But I must say, this, and I know they are doing the smart thing using caution, is getting discouraging. He is turning into the Ken Griffey Jr. of basketball.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 11:17 AM) This morning Cowley said when he landed and rolled his ankle, his other foot sort of came out of his shoe and that is when it was rolled. I didnt see it, but that is the first i heard of how it happened Funk said the second ankle injury was really nothing he couldn't have played with. They didn't even want to call it a sprain. I read an article where Calipari said DRose has a very small threshold of pain. You give him a little elbow and he is in agony. That concerns me. I do agree, this injury is different than the knee injuries because he just unluckily landed on a foot. Anyone who has played basketball has probably done that. But on the other hand, he has played 1 1/2 games out of 4. The pattern continues. It just makes you wonder what's next. Before he tore his ACL, he was missing games with all sorts of different injuries.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) Soxtalk remains split. A true battle! I will say this, if Victor signs with someone else, I hope he sucks even worse than the posters who don't want him think he will.