Dick Allen

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 12:53 PM) Except Mattingly has about a 50% chance of getting fired if they don't make the World Series. Even in the playoffs, the games they've lost, the LA writers have immediately pounced/pounded on Mattingly, almost incessantly. The reason the Dodgers turned their season around was/is Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig and some other veterans like Crawford, Ethier and Uribe showing up and playing well all at the same time. As I have stated, better players can transform someone from an idiot to a genius. I would imagine Mattingly's baseball IQ and the way he went about his business wasn't much different from when they were losing to when they were almost unstoppable. People put too much both good and bad on managers. I have even seen people judge managers on the team's record vs. it's pythagorean record. Did you know if you did that, Joe Maddon wouldn't be so highly thought of. This year was only the 2nd time out of his 8 seasons as a manager the team's actual record was better than it's pythagorean.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 12:18 PM) I have a question for Dick Allen. What would you do if you were Robin Ventura, starting today, to turn around next year's White Sox team....even before Spring Training? And how would you conduct your Spring Training differently? Do you think you would do everything exactly the same? Do you think spring training has ANY bearing on regular season performance? If not, what corrections are realistic in the middle of the season, if any? All you can do is work on the same things. There will be a new hitting coach, so I'm sure there will be something a bit different. What did Mattingly do differently that transformed the Dodgers from a last place team, and about to lose his job,to a team that may win the WS, and a probable extension almost overnight? I really think blaming the 2013 season on spring training is wrong and old. It's already been stated by people who were actually there (Hawk, Stone, Hahn, Robin) that the White Sox actually worked more on fundamentals this past spring than they did in 2012. If it was the country club some here say it was and the Sox lost 99 games, there would be a new manager. Gene Lamont, who won 2 division titles in a row, was fired by the Sox about 30 games into the 1995 season and replaced by Terry Bevington. The reason.......spring training was a country club and they weren't ready to play. JR said as much. Besides, you don't boot grounders in August because they didn't hit you enough fungos in March. This team was bad, but will be better when they get better players.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 11:43 AM) The Tigers have less speed than any team in baseball and they are successful. Next slowest team after the Tigers---St Louis. Pitching and power still and always will, win.

How did De Aza rank in 2012? He didn't seem nearly as dumb on the bases and in the field.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:17 AM) And I want to acknowledge that, using qualitative data, it has been agreed that Alejandro De Aza is a bad base runner. Using quanitative data, it is being disputed whether Alejandro De Aza is valuable on the bases. This is the argument I don't understand. You can be a "bad" base runner and still provide positive value. Adam Dunn is a "bad" hitter that a lot of people want the Sox to get rid of, but he still produces surplus value when hitting. Both can improve at the areas being disputed here. You were the one arguing you can't call him a bad baserunner. You can call him a dumb baserunner.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 12:44 AM) Let it go, dude. 2k5 subscribes to twtw. Advanced stats are the best thing to ever happen to sports. I've never enjoyed baseball/basketball/football more than I have the last 5 years due to advanced statistical analysis. I don't think that is his point at all. DeAza was awful running the bases this year. If you want to say his speed made up for some of the awfulness and then compare him to Konerko, fine. Anyone would rather have DeAza running than Konerko. It doesn't take some advanced formula to see that.The fact is Konerko's baserunning is maximized. DeAza's is not. To me, dumb baserunner = bad baserunner. I understand more speed provides more value, but there is no reason DeAza should be as clueless as he is when he gets on base.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 06:54 PM) Nobody knows if they're trying to get rid of De Aza or not. Steve Stone sure sounded like he knew.

Sale's contract only increases his value. 25 next opening day, $3.5 million next year, $6 million in 2015 $9,150,000 in 2016, $12 million in 2017, $12.5 million in 2018, and $13.5 million in 2019. Not only that, but each of those last 2 seasons has a $1 million buyout, so even if he did get severely injured, it wouldn't be that expensive. You would have this guy for $57 million over 6 prime years. I can't think of anyone with his success and that little of guarantee over that long of time(considering today's pay) being traded, but the package would have to be unprecedented IMO.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) I've changed my mind on this, the Sox should listen to offers for Sale. Combined with the money they have to spend and the #3 pick, the package they could get in return for him could definitely jump start the rebuild. You stated a couple months ago the "heavy lifting" on a rebuild was done. Now you are mentioning a jump start.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 12:02 PM) I agree with everything you said, but the point is that our ideas of valuation are off-base. ADA made 10ish dumb baserunning mistakes, which is a handful more than he would be expected to make on average. This hurt his value, but his overall contribution remained positive. I understand that those mistakes may have FELT like disasters that outweigh the positives of what he did, but our emotional reaction doesn't affect the actual value. That's why we want to use statistics to quantify this value, so that our biases can't affect it and make us make a mistake. So if you (the collective you, not specifically you) think that a statistic is off, then be all means argue that the statistic is off. But make that argument based on your understanding of the stat and why it won't add up. It's sole purpose is to be there to inform you better than your human brain, which is notoriously flawed for this type of exercise, so that fact that it may have felt like ADA's errors were more costly than his contributions is nothing like evidence against the numbers. But this is another thing I don't understand. Why are baserunning and offensive metrics never "off", but defensive metrics always can be wrong? What makes offensive numbers foolproof, weighted perfectly, but defense you need a sample size of 3 years.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 11:46 AM) If you're going to call an objective measurement of something garbage, you should tell us why it's garbage and how your intuition and selective human memory are more accurate. I think it was pretty obvious Alejandro De Aza was a stupid baserunner in 2013. Speed was the only thing that made him acceptable by advanced metric standards. If he had average speed, everyone would say he is a bad baserunner. Again this is semantics. BTW, Stone was on Kaplan's show a few weeks ago and stated the White Sox would be looking for someone who understood the game of baseball better than De Aza to play CF next year. Maybe that means De Aza will play LF and/or DH, maybe it means he gone. I do agree about not giving him away, but he was pretty dissappointing running the bases and out in the OF in 2013.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 09:45 AM) I can think of two off the top of my head: Dayan Viciedo and Avisail Garcia. The point isn't that De Aza is awesome, it's the the whole team sucks, and most of the team sucks worse. Those of us who want this team to turn around quickly cannot also be advocating we replace De Aza before we replace Beckham, Flowers, Phegley, Viciedo, and Gillaspie, at least. I was actually referring to picking it up off the ground. He fumbled and kicked more balls this season than I have ever seen anyone do. Guys would get extra bases because if it bounced off a wall, De Aza very rarely would come up with it clean. What I don't understand is he wasn't like this previously, at least to the extent he was bad this year, and despite what Balta will say, it has nothing to do with spring training. I also think stupid baserunning mistakes which take you out of innings demoralize a team. Paulie can't be a better baserunner. If De Aza wouldn't be so dumb on the basepaths, he could improve his worth a decent amount.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 09:07 AM) Between the bad reads and horrible and regular baserunning mistakes, I feel pretty good about those statements, especially the baserunning. He killed more innings that I can remember seeing a Sox player do ever. I'm a De Aza fan, but I agree with this. The guys who insist the advance metrics showing he wasn't as bad as you think will use the fact he did steal 20 bases and used his speed for extra bases more often than the average runner, which may be true, but it doesn't offset the fact that his baserunning and fielding, I have never seen an OF have a tougher time picking up a ball, were horrible. And I agree, he killed several innings with basepath blunders you don't see from 12 year olds. As for Granderson, it appears the Yankees are going to give him a qualifying offer, which IMO, would probably end any chance he plays for the White Sox.

That was impressive. Ethier had no chance.

Puig with a golden sombrero. Somebody do a wellness check on Caulfield.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 12, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) Rose not playing tonight, left knee soreness. "Precautionary" but uh oh. He might be only 109%.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 12, 2013 -> 03:09 PM) I don't want to turn this into a discussion about religion, but AP is easily one of the most outspoken Christians in the NFL (probably the second most next to Tim Tebow). If he was a man of god, like he claims to be so much, he would have at least met the child once by now. My bad. I guess he didn't even know about the child until recently, and then offered to be responsible. So apologies AP.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 12, 2013 -> 01:30 PM) He never eve met the kid that died. Why should I feel sorry for a guy who didn't care to meet his child? I agree. If it is comfirmed he is the father, AP is a s***ty guy.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 11:29 AM) Every year, Adam Dunn hits poorly, and hits well. 2011 was the ONLY YEAR where he only hit poorly and did not also hit well. Therefore, Adam Dunn's 2011 was an aberration. Which is what I posted in post 151 which started all of this. I said stretches and said I wouldn't call his 2011 a "complete aberration" because he still hits like that for long periods of time in each season since. I wasn't talking total season stats. I was talking the level of performance and not just for a week or two here and there. It is still quite prevalent. Example, through the first 36 games of 2013, he was hitting .133 with a .520 Ops. That is almost a quarter of the season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 11:11 AM) You are taking stretches out of context and turning them into seasons to make a comparison that isn't there. His 2011 season was an aberration. Looking at the rest of his seasonal totals tells you that. All hitters have stretches where they struggle, but that isn't what is being talked about here. All hitters have stretches where they struggle. I understand that. And my original point was Dunn still plays at his 2011 level for long stretches, quite often. 2011 was historic how bad it was. I get that, but he still is capable of that type of performance for a good part of the season, which to me says it is not quite a complete aberration when discussing that particular level of play. He still gets there. It is exactly what I originally posted in post #151.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 10, 2013 -> 12:27 PM) Beckham played 25 games in June, 20 games in July, 29 games in August (27 starts), and 22 games in Sept. He played more in those last 2 months than he did in July. July has the AS break for a couple games true, but if that's giving him "extra time off", then I don't know when he ever had time on. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseba...-to-quad-strain All right there for you. Was hitting over .300 with a .360 Obp. Power wasn't there but I thin the wrist could be at fault, and his UZR was really good. You keep pointing out his range is getting worse. The guy had a leg injury.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 10:22 AM) MOVING THE GOALPOSTS I'm not debating whether or not Adam Dunn is a streaky player. I'm not debating anything. I'm telling you, and you are disputing what is, to this point in time, a fact - Adam Dunn's 2011 is an aberration. Are you really disputing the FACT that Adam Dunn has never once in his career posted anything close over the course of a full season to the .569 OPS he put up in 2011? Quit arguing just to argue. You are attempting to make an argument against concrete being hard. All I am pointing out is that the performance you call a "complete aberration" is the same type of performance Adam has provided in prolong stretches the last 2 years. The only goalposts that have been move are people defending his performance, basing most of it off of 2011. If you wantto base it off of the rest of his career, his 2012 and 2013 also sucked. I am not a Dunn hater by any stretch. He does hustle, and seems like a good teammate, but his performance in each year he has been in a White Sox uniform has been less than was expected when he signed his contract.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 09:59 AM) It's a common fallacy to assume that events are evenly distributed. The fact is, Adam Dunn's seasons are not unlike any other players' seasons in that they are composed of hot streaks and cold streaks that end up averaging into his end of the season lines. He may be streakier than average, but pointing out his cold stretches does nothing to explain his 2011. Your argument is evidence that he's declining. His 2011 was a complete meltdown. The fact that his last two seasons have been substantially better than his 2011 is the best argument that 2011 was a "complete aberration." If 2011 was his true talent level, than his season averages would be looking like 2011, regardless of hot and cold streaks. That doesn't mean you have to think he's good, but I'm not sure there's really any rational argument against the notion that his 2011 was an aberration. 2011 was a sign of decline as well. He still doesn't have a .200 average in a White Sox uniform, the advanced metrics article I read pointed out that his 40 homer 2012 was the second least productive 40 homer season in history. Granted even the least productive 40 homer seasons still provide value. Look at his numbers June 1, 2013, It was like 2011 all over again. And his September was one for the books. Even when people are satisified with Adam Dunn, he is just as bad as he was in 2011 for half the year. He goes bad for months at a time. He had crazy monthly splits. He was either an All Star or a guy that should be selling beer in the stands. The only aberration was that in 2011 it lasted the entire season. The performance that occured then is not a complete aberration. It still occurs just as often as when he is productive.

Peppers is either playing really hurt, doesn't feel like playing anymore, or just got old really fast. He isn't even getting doubled and his game stats aren't too much different from mine.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 11, 2013 -> 09:25 AM) And now I feel like an idiot for misspelling. Still, here's the definition ab·er·ra·tion/ˌæbəˈreɪʃən/ Show Spelled [ab-uh-rey-shuhn] Show IPA noun 1. the act of departing from the right, normal, or usual course. 2. the act of deviating from the ordinary, usual, or normal type. 3. deviation from truth or moral rectitude. 4. mental irregularity or disorder, especially of a minor or temporary nature; lapse from a sound mental state. 5. Astronomy . apparent displacement of a heavenly body, owing to the motion of the earth in its orbit. Now, here are Adam Dunn's OPS's from year to year .948 .854 .819 .956 .927 .855 .940 .898 .928 .892 .569 .800 .762 You tell me Dick, do any of those look like they depart or deviate from the norm? Each of the past 2 seasons, he has been 2011 awful or close to it for 3 months out of 6. So he has been just as awful the last 2 seasons as he was in 2011 half the time. So even the past 2 seasons, his complete aberration has been just as typical of a performance as the "good" Adam Dunn. In fact his last 2 seasons look like an aberration if you look at the first 10 or 11. I hope he is the June, July, August of 2013 Adam Dunn next year, but chances are, for at least half of next season, just like in 2012 and 2013, he will perform just like the performance you call a complete aberration.