Dick Allen

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 02:12 PM) And while I don't have anywhere near the time to prove it statistically, I would think that a high OBP would do more to create more consistency than a high AVG or low strikeout totals. I really think a lot of the Sox' offensive shortcomings that you are attributing to high strikeout totals and low batting average are really due to low OBP. In the past, yes, they really had not had the really high k guys except for Thome, before Dunn. I'm just saying if the Sox signed Reynolds and had Flowers playing every day with Dunn, that it would be even worse. They would leave a very high percentage of guys on base. I do agree, the OBP has to get higher, but if 3 guys combined for 600 ks, I'd venture to guess, the OBP could improve, but the amount of times scoring 4 or more may not.

QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:43 PM) So you think run consistency would be more important than total runs? How would you define that? KC the last five years, or so, is always near the top in batting average and has been top three least amount of strikeouts, and they are in the lower third in runs. It certainly isn't translating to wins. Minnesota has been very similar the last few years, with poor results. The Sox had the least amount of K's in 2010, with the 7th best batting average, and they were 21st overall in runs. OBP has a much higher correlation with runs scored than batting average or strikeouts. SLG% is a better indicator than both, as well. The argument isn't total runs, it's the game to game consistency of runs scored. If the Sox had a 3 game series and were going to score 12 runs, I'd much rather it be 4,4,4 than 10,1,1. Obviously, the more you score, the better chance you win. It seems though that the magic number, at least where the Sox are concerned, is 4. That is where they start winning more than losing.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:19 PM) 2012 team was shut out five more times, but essentially the same number of 0-2 run games. The problem with the 2012 offense was not having enough consistent OBP. Whether you do it with average or with a lot of walks, the Sox need more consistent OBP. Even Dunn's OBP, which was good compared to the rest of the Sox, was terrible by his standards. I do know the 2005 team won at least 2 regular season games 1-0, and won the clinching WS game 1-0. They had top of the line pitching. OBP obviously needs to improve, but if you had 3 guys combining for 600 strikeouts, there would be a heck of a lot of LOB.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:12 PM) Yeah right, nice catch there Rajai Davis. Dunn and Napoli both played in the Major Leagues during the following seasons: 2006 - Dunn was better 2007 - Dunn was better 2008 - Dunn was better 2009 - Dunn was better 2010 - Dunn was better 2011 - Napoli was better 2012 - Dunn was better Again, the past 3 years, Napoli has overall been significantly better. He even homers more often per plate appearance. I personally wouldn't want to give Napoli $13 million for 3 years, but IMO, it's better than paying Adam Dunn $15 million.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:04 PM) No, the problem is the way that people try to boil everything down to one or two special stats to try to evaluate an offensive player or a pitcher's overall performance level. Baseball is a beautifully complex game and the constant overuse of certain statistics just dumbs it down. And "adapt" why? Maybe I'll just starting listening to horses*** music and watching American Idol all day since that's adapting too. OPS is the simplest of the combination type stats where people take several different stats and try to make them all into one thing. This isn't special. It's not that difficult to look at the OBP number and the SLG number individually while taking into account the overall skillset of the player. Both Dunn and Napoli walk. Great. Both are also slow DP candidates whose walks can turn into double plays and force plays. Their walks only mean something when/if someone drives them in or if they drive in a run with a walk. To a lesser extent, working a count and taxing the pitcher counts too. Dunn has a career .370 OBP while Napoli's is .356. Dunn is better there but I'd much rather have both guys get on a .330 clip if it meant that good speed and baserunning skills came with it. The power is the only area where both players are special, since neither can defend well enough anywhere. Dunn has a career .499 SLG while Napoli has a career .507 SLG. If you look at SLG then Napoli is a better player, but he's actually not, since Dunn however hits the ball over the fence a lot while Napoliu doubles. This isn't rocket surgery. Hitting the ball over the wall is the greatest outcome any hitter can ever have in any at bat. Dunn's power makes more runs & he's a more dangerous hitter overall. There's no comparison between the two if you look at the players individually, but OPS says they're pretty close. This is why I hate these stats. They dumb down the game and really aren't worth the arguments. The worst is when people try to make comparisons between low power speedsters who get on a decent clip but steal bags with mashing K machines and in doing so completely ignore an entire element of an offense. So yeah, f*** OPS. You're apparently for paying players in 2013,2014 and 2015 based on what they did in 2005 or 2006. Why don't you look at their numbers the past couple of years, cover up the Adam Dunn poster on your wall, and tell me who is the more valuable player. If home runs are the end all, the past 3 years, Napoli has homered once every 17 plate appearances, Dunn, once every 19.9.

The other problem with signing Reynolds and putting him at 3B is he misses as many balls over there as he does at the plate.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:11 PM) The biggest problem with trying to talk baseball these days is the way people use OPS they way you do. WTF is OPS? f*** OPS, give me HRs. Naopli is a low batting average right hander who takes a walks and doesn't have Dunn's power. He's a poor man's Dunn and he doesn't defend well enough anywhere to justify his contract. He doesn't hit as many home runs, but he does get on base more often. I would think for a guy like Dunn who is the ultimate 3 outcome hitter, and Napoli who is very similar, OPS is probably exactly what you want to be looking at.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:02 PM) 3 years, $39M is a good deal for Dunn if he was a FA right now. Hamilton is a better lefty power bat, but who else is out there? There's not much, and the deal would be warranted given Dunn's track record. Napoli OTOH has what kind of track record? The Angels dumped him, the Jays dumped him, he had one great year in Texas hitting in a terrific lineup in a major hitters park, and that's it. He's mediocre and the contract is s***. The Red Sox suck and they are stupid too. Stupid Red Sox. It's almost like they never lost Theo. Mike Napoli has a lifetime .863 OPS over a 7 year career, but don't let the facts get in your way.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:56 AM) Salty sucks balls. Anything involving a backup catcher for Floyd is giving him away and that's stupid, especially since he's one of our best possible trade chips. Floyd can at least bring back a high ceiling A+ arm and a longshot position prospect with some potential. Salty and Flowers are pretty similar offensively except maybe Flowers walks and strikes out a little more. Interesting that they were originally brought up by the same organization. I really don't know why Floyd is considered a huge trade chip. He makes $9.5 million, can be a free agent in a year, and hasn't been all that good recently, including health issues almost annually. In fact when there were rumors of Floyd going to Boston last year, I think when the Youkilis rumors first started to appear, Jim Bowden basically said Floyd would wilt in Boston.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:53 AM) Really? Come on. Dunn is 2 years older and has 260 more career HR. Napoli had one excellent year his whole career, with everything else being far less than anyone should ever demand from a power position. As a catcher that's one thing, but obviously the Red Sox don't think he can catch much, and the Rangers probably aren't too fond of him there either, and obviously the Angels thought he sucked back there. The Napoli contract is a horrible deal. Dunn OTOH, for 2 years and as a lefty, is a much better contract by far. Dunn doesn't have a lot of value, but if the Sox eat a couple million per/take back a contract, and if they ask for nothing significant in return in prospects, that's a good deal for a team looking for big short-term power without having to give up real assets or forfeit a pick. If Adam Dunn were a free agent right now, I doubt he would get the contract Napoli is getting.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:47 AM) To be honest, I'm okay with a Salty/Flowers platoon. But Morel and Chavez? I don't know. I'm not sure there's any hope for Morel. You're probably right, and Chavez could be playing his last game anytime he is penciled in the line up, but for a year, given what it would cost, it is an option to be considered if a couple of other things don't work out.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:37 AM) Platoon at 3rd and C? No thanks. If the Sox trade Floyd to save money, the money needs to be spent on a full-time fix for 3B. Platoons aren't necessarily a bad thing, especially at an offensively challenged postion overall ©, and another position where there isn't much available, and a good chunk of the league is looking to fill (3B).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:07 AM) I think a distribution of runs scored in games would be more interesting. From a purely feeling basis, I'll bet a team like this would have many higher individual runs scored in games, but I think they would also be shutout much more often. I'll be their deviation in runs scored would be huge. There might not be a difference in total runs over a season, but an uneven distribution could costs W's. That was my point. 0,1, or 2 runs scored would most likely happen more often than the average team. That translates into losses and moans from message boards about the hitting coach.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:30 AM) Wow, I would hope that Floyd has more worth than a platoon catcher. I was hoping that if Floyd is dealt, it would be for a solid prospect who could possibly challenge in spring training for a job. I don't think he does. As for Chavez/Morel, I mentioned this possibility before. I know KW almost got Chavez last year and Morel is supposedly healthy. I would think it is option C or D or lower, but there are worse alternatives.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 10:51 AM) Except they're paying him to be a 1B. $13M per for a first baseman who sucks? Maybe someone will take Dunn now because teams this offseason are acting just stupid. Dunn had a comeback year and put up an .800 OPS and gets $15 million a year. Napoli had a regression and put up an .812 OPS and gets $13 million a year. Seems to me Napoli is still the better deal.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 10:20 AM) Most strikeouts, top 9, MLB 1) Oakland, 94 wins, PLAYOFFS 2) Houston, 55 wins 3) Pittsburgh, 79 wins 4) Washington, 98 wins, PLAYOFFS 5) Tampa Bay, 90 wins 6) Baltimore, 93 wins, PLAYOFFS 7) Atlanta, 94 wins, PLAYOFFS 8) Arizona, 81 wins 9) Cincinnati, 97 wins, PLAYOFFS Fewest strikeouts, top 5, MLB 1) Kansas City, 72 wins 2) Minnesota, 66 wins 3) Cleveland, 68 wins 4) Philadelphia, 81 wins 5) San Francisco, 94 wins Obviously, pitching and defense have something to do with winning. If the Sox had 3 guys producing about 600 strikeouts between them, their offense would be very inconsistent at best, and they would need a lights out pitching staff to have much of a record beyond average.

Napoli isn't going to catch much in Boston.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 05:14 PM) The prospect of trading Floyd looks better and better now after the non-tender deadline. If we can trade him and get a couple of above average prospects and save the $9.5 to be allocated elsewhere I would be thrilled. Look at these various SP that were just non-tendered that could provide similar if not possibly better overall performance than Gavin; Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey. Those guys aren't anything more than #4 or #5 starters on any team, but neither is Gavin. To get some 4.5ish ERA from one of those guys for close to 200IP at a fraction of the $9.5M Gavin is going to get to produce similar numbers would be a good move IMO. Tommy Hanson and his 2012 4.48 ERA was just traded for Jordan Walden, so Gavin has to have some value. It is amazing how much better Floyd is thought of around here 2 months after he has pitched. While he was pitching, there were very few who thought he was worth his option. They aren't going to get much for Floyd, and if the guys you mention are just as good as Floyd why would other teams not just sign them instead of giving up talent to pay Gavin more money?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 01:11 PM) I'm talking about his slugging % dropping from .501 to about .405. Even at his career OBP of .324, we're talking about an OPS of roughly .730 next year, which is about where he was at in 2011. Solid for a catcher, but nothing spectacular. Flowers had OPSs of .719 and .708 the last two years with us in minimal playing time. Those numbers should improve with consistent playing time. Honestly, I think he'll have a higher OPS than AJ next year, even if AJ hits 50 points higher than him, because he draws a lot more walks and should hit more home runs. I do think that batting average is often underrated, so AJ deserves some credit for that, but overall offensively I think they'll be pretty close. Also, not that this is the gospel or anything, but Bill James is projecting a .791 OPS for Flowers next year vs a .732 OPS for AJ. Thought it was worth pointing out though. If the White Sox are confident Flowers would put up a .791 OPS they would not even consider bringing AJ back. Maybe they are. It has been very quiet on the AJ front. I do think Flowers defensive reputation here will take a little hit if he plays everyday. When he is a little more banged up, and a little more drained from playing, blocking balls in the dirt is going to be a bit more difficult.

Maybe AJ falls back into the White Sox price range. Flowers really scares me offensively. The power is nice, but everything else has been bad. The strikeouts scare me. One thing I have never understood about sabermetrics is how little strikeouts mean offensively, yet the value they have for pitchers.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 30, 2012 -> 07:01 AM) Floyd getting moved is not news, but potentially signing another starter is. I guess my question is what does this mean for the rest of the rotation? Let's say we sign Hochever to be our #5 starter, does Santiago start in AAA or go to our bullpen? Or maybe Hahn just wants to bring in another starter to add some general competition this spring, but it seems Axelrod would be perfectly capable of that. Needing to have 6 starters could also be a sign that Danks isn't progressing as quickly as expected or that Hahn has concerns that Quintana will regress next year. Not really. It was reported they wanted BMac the first or second day of free agency.

This isn't really news.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 29, 2012 -> 12:15 PM) Rios was ripped relentlessly (with good reason) in 2010 and 2011, but he was suddenly very popular in 2012. And he does make sense to trade, at a high point in his performance and with the salary he has on the table. Outfielders are easier to replace than some other positions, relatively. Might be Rios. It would make sense considering you aren't going to get what some think you can get for him. I'd dump him in a hearbeat.

How many White Sox players can you really consider popular by the consensus of Soxtalk? Sale, Paulie, probaby Ramirez, Tyler Flowers is starting to become popular like a back up QB, but I wouldn't call him popular just yet. Everyone else gets ripped plenty. Pretty much everyone except Sale gets ripped plenty.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 29, 2012 -> 07:49 AM) Plus everyone expects Floyd to be dealt, so no one would be too upset. Plus most of this site during the season didn't think Floyd was worth his option.