harfman77

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 02:58 PM) So they shed $5.5 mill in Thornton, $4.5 mill in Crain, $2 mill in Lindstrom, $6 mill in Konerko ($7 mill this year, $1 mill installements from from 2014 thru 2020), $9.5 mill in Floyd, anyone they may trade this year, plus an additional $25 million in revenue, and you believe that they won't make a single move in free agency or the trade market. We are talking upwards of $50 million for them to spend this offseason. You might see Danks play out the year, but I would strongly, strongly doubt they go into next season with him as the starter. I doubt they go into next season with Viciedo at 1B too. I think trying to figure anything out like that right now is farfetched and absurd. I don't see them making many major moves, I think they will re-sign Gavin to an incentive laden contract with options, they will make some more Lindstrom type moves to shore up the bullpen, and a Keppinger type move to get another OF, maybe someone like Delmon Young, but they won't be chasing big ticket free agents. I think this is a three year rebuild and they are going to hold their chips until they are ready to go all in again. I think they will use the money to go to player development and help improve the minor league system by spending more on scouting and roving coaches, and will focus more on the farm providing talent to either contribute at the major league level or to acquire pieces that will.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) This is where I believe your premise for trading Reed and a few others is flawed, IMO. I do not believe that Rick Hahn and the Sox front office believes for one minute that the team won't be competitive next season, and I tend to agree with them. You have the pitching, trade anyone not in next years plan, maybe.....maybe one or two more if.....IF you get an offer you can't refuse, and pick up a bat or two in trade or however in the offseason, and go again. That said the guy I really want gone is DeAza, I loved him last year, but this year he is a completely different ballplayer, and that's not a good thing. I think that they will trade Crain, Thornton, Lindstrom and maybe 1 starter. They might part with 1 position player, depending on who, if any of them, they now think they can better replace next year (Viciedo?, Konerko?, DeAza). They could hold off on the starter and position players until the offseason if they don't get a good offer. I just think, they think, they have the pitching and will try to revamp the offense for next year. If we trade our players we want rid of, that is all we will get back is players that other organizations dont have plans for in the future. You have to trade value to get value. And I cannot believe anyone believes this team will be better next year. Danks will come up to replace PK with De Aza sliding to LF and Viciedo going to 1B.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 02:34 PM) I am guessing we have Crain and Thornton on the block and maybe Reed. But, knowing how unpredictable baseball can be perhaps gthe Tigers pick up Marmol from the Cubs The Tigers are all in, they will try Rondon out before they get too deep in looking for a guy. Rumor is they are talking to the Phillies about Papelbon. If the Tigers set the market for closers giving Castellanos for Papelbon, that will really drive up the value for Reed given the contract implications of the the two. I dont think there is anyway that the Tigers give up either within the division, but it is nice to dream.

From MLBTR "Other teams say the Tigers are willing to surrender top prospects Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia if necessary. The team is focused on finding a closer."

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 11:33 AM) Really, the difference in what you'd get for Ramirez, Peavy, or Reed would not be any different this offseason than it would at the deadline. The Mariners traded Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and two others for Erik Bedard. The Tigers, Cubs, and Red Sox gave the Marlins a zillion players in their deals. The only reason you deal those guys right now is 1) if you feel you are getting max value 2) you feel that said players are at max value Yes, you have to deal guys like Crain, Thornton, and Lindstrom because they are free agents to be, but there's no need to deal the first 3 mentioned because they really are not going to lose value between now and then. Rios could lose value. The outfield class is pretty deep and diverse so trading him now while he is currently the best offensive bat makes sense. I'll "concede" that point. There could be others that become available between now and mid July too. Then again, you can keep him in the off chance you compete next year. But to suggest that you are going to get more or less for Ramirez, Peavy, or Reed right now is silly. Ramirez is going to be one of the best SS's available both in July and December - your free agent shortstops are Peralta, Drew, Yunel Escobar, and Furcal. That is, quite frankly, a terrible class. There are all kinds of high upside starters that can be brought in during free agency, but most will be high risk as well. And Reed is a 24 year old closer who will end the year with just over 2 years of service time who is currently averaging 9+ K/9 with a 4 K/BB. If you want to shop him now, you can, but unless his arm blows up between now and December (knock on wood), his value will go UP. The only 3 that need to be moved are the 3 relievers I mentioned. Rios would be a good one to trade too, but, as mentioned, he doesn't have to go anywhere. Same goes for Ramirez, Peavy, and Reed. They don't need to go anywhere, but this team won't get any better in the future with them playing things out. The difference between now and winter is that teams can fill their holes through free agency, go into the season with a wildcard at a position (Tyler Flowers), or make a deal with any number of teams to make deals with are smaller (supply and demand). The amount of quality SS's available next month may be two, in December it may be four, which drives down the possible return. The more teams that are in contention, the higher the value of your assets. In the winter when no one is contending for anything it is a lot more difficult to drive up the price of your return. You could argue that in a vacuum that if a player is an A today they are an A in December, but GM's don't operate in a vacuum and there are market conditions that affect the value of players. You mention that class of SS's for the offseason, Furcal has already been replaced, Escobar and Drew will be replaced internally, and more than likely Peralta resigns. So you have three more SS's on the market to provide teams alternatives to Alexei at a lower financial commitment and without giving up prospects. Sure they may not be as good, but they are all good enough to justify not giving up much in a trade. In July, there are no alternatives, pay our price or go sign some independent league guy. The point is it is a lot easier to drive up prices now than when the market is wide open.

AJ would not save this team. The rebuild has to start some time and it starts at letting his $7.5M contract go to a contender. Flowers was a project when acquired and has lived up to his scouting report. He has done a good job of handling the pitching staff, and showed that his role his a backup catcher with some pop, but not a starter on a playoff caliber team. The team will be even worse next year when PK walks at the end of the year and Rios is traded with no suitable player to replace him. Don't expect the Sox to go out and spend money in the offseason to shore up a team that is pretty far away from contending, probably three offensive players. Look for deals similar to Keppingers to serve as roster filler until the farm system starts contributing.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 09:38 AM) That's not what I was debating. I was basically saying that it doesn't matter when or where you make trades, the return won't change that greatly. Teams are less willing to give up premier talent in the offseason, so the theory goes, because they can sign guys, but there are more teams who feel they can compete, so you may be able to parlay that into a nice deal. Teams are more willing to give up premier talent to get the missing piece at the deadline, but there are fewer teams willing to give those pieces up, so it's harder to pit teams against each other. At the end of the day, it's up to the GM to make the move to bring in the talent. No, I don't care that all the Sox got for Kenny Lofton was Felix Diaz and Ryan Meaux and that is entirely besides the point. I did bring it up in a funny way though. It absolutely does matter when. Casey Blake does not bring you back Carlos Santana in December, even if you are paying his salary. He does in July because the Dodgers have a hole and see Casey Blake as a piece to solidify their lineup for a playoff run. There is a lot more pressure for a GM to make moves in season to respond to moves that their division rivals make, mostly because of the cutoff of the trade deadline (unless you take your chances with players making it through waivers). In the offseason they have a long time to let things play out before there is a real need to make a move. Most of the Sox deadline deals that you mention have been little more than salary dumps, which you would see if the Sox were to move Dunn. So to cite them is a red herring. Not sure the Sox have made many valuable players for prospect trades since the white flag deal, the team has generally operated in the opposite mode. Sergio Santos for Nester Molina was an offseason deal that really brought back pennies on the dollar. According to fangraphs the Sox have the best offensive trade chip in Rios, the ninth best offensive player and second best shortstop in Alexi, the number three starter and number two reliever. That is a lot of value to work with, especially for teams that feel they are a player away from having a world series caliber teams. EDIT: In addition to pressure to make the playoffs, there are usually more active buyers in the summer to play against each other. For instance, the Padres, Giants and Dodgers all want a SP and dont want the other teams to get him so they are willing to pay more to keep your guy away from them.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 03:24 AM) I'm against trading Peavy at the break unless it's too good to be true. I would see what he fetches in the off season. Mid-season deals tend to yield more as teams that find themselves in contention will give up more to make a playoff push, especially when their competitors are upgrading.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 25, 2013 -> 09:03 AM) The Sox may make a play for him, but no way in hell they put in the highest bid. Highest bid may not win though. The team that wins will probably the team that has the clearest path to the majors and comes close to his demands. There is more long term contract value for him if he gets to the majors early and succeeds. Given where this roster is right now, there is not much risk in adding him to the roster on August 1st.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 02:02 PM) http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees-tr...-041914872.html Lots of discussion of the White Sox role in the upcoming trade deadline, with commentary on Peavy/Rios/Crain/Ramirez...nothing on Dunn/Konerko/Thornton/Lindstrom in this article. BTW, how much would anyone be willing to pay for Carl Crawford is the Dodgers heavily subsidized (not unlike the Thome situation) his deal? We desperately need a leadoff hitter, but it's a huge risk with a speed player nearing the downside of his career soon. They are going to play Puig and Kemp, so one of Ethier or Crawford has to go. I doubt the White Sox would make that kind of commitment (even with a treasury of cash coming our way), but anything is possible as they desperately need to change the chemistry and composition of the entire line-up. One big problem with Crawford would be the fact that unless Viciedo is moved to 1B/DH or traded, you'd have to play him in CF...with that severely limited arm. No way I would touch Crawford, I just don't believe he would fit in USC. Would much rather have Ethier at a subsidized rate as his power would play much better. He would be a serviceable replacement if Rios is moved as well.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 10:54 AM) It would be pretty surprising if the Rangers deal Profar...on one hand, they're desperate to get back into the World Series and finally win. OTOH, they have a tremendously profitable business model going now and they aren't wedded as much to a single season's results as they are putting out a team that has a CHANCE to win the World Series if everything goes right each and every year. It's that kind of trade (Shields/Davis for Myers/Odorizzi) which makes more sense than trading away 4-5 prospects for one superstar, when you're risking the loss of Sale vs. Profar straight up (notwithstanding the other 3-4 players) as is a strong possibility with the future Sale injury issue. The problem is that KC gave up too much and punched a hole in their future offense...which is ironically their biggest weakness now. Why they blocked Myers by signing Francouer to that extension, we'll never know (it was about as wise as the Teahen and Keppinger deals). The Rangers problem is that they don't have a spot for Profar, and with the extension they just gave Andrus, they won't for quite some time, so holding on to him when they are trying to win now is counterproductive because his value is as high now as it ever will be as long as he is not an everyday starter. I think they will absolutely move Profar in the right deal that makes them favorites to win the World Series. They have a need for an upgrade at LF, 1B and in the rotation.

I dont think anyone here will be happy with the package that Reed brings back, closers have not had a history of bringing back impact type players. The best comp deal for a closer recently was probably when the A's sent Bailey to the Red Sox with Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick, Raul Alcantara, and Miles Head. Head is the #7 prospect in the A's system according to BA. Reddick played himself to a career year last year but has regressed back to the level of a fourth OF.

Based on those scouting reports, I would pass on Zapata, as it seems we are flush with hitters with batting practice power that are projects when it comes to making contact and pitch recognition. Instead I would use the money to go after Diaz, Devers, and Almonte. All say they have good pitch recognition and can make consistent contact, something that this system really needs to complement all the toolsy players we have drafted.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 08:52 AM) I still contend that you have to assume a high bust-rate in trading for anyone who hasn't established themselves in MLB. The "Greatest system ever!" the Royals had a few years ago is a prime example of the risks in trading an established ace for guys outside of the bigs, and you see that kind of thing all the time. That's why I keep saying "Trout or the highway". Even if I'd be flexible on that...any time I see someone trying to trade a guy for a player in the minors who isn't established and proven in the big leagues yet, I say "What if he turns into Beckham and takes 3 years to develop?" There is a high bust rate, especially the further the prospects are away from contributing. You would have to have a package that includes major league or near major league talent. For instance, a package from the Pirates built around Cole and Taillon or from the Cardinals that starts with Taveras, Adams, and Wong. Guys that are more easily projectable at the major league record due to ML track records or being close enough that their floor is at least a major league regular.

QUOTE (MaggsOrdonez @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 08:11 AM) According to baseball-ref Reed is being paid $520,000. Thornton is being paid $5.5 million. I would much rather try to unload Thornton at the trade deadline for some prospects (replace him with Webb etc.), free up some money for a FA signing now or in the offseason, and keep Reed for the pittance of a salary he currently earns. Reed has been great, he's fun to watch (#TWTW), and he's cheap. Thats why Reed has trade value and Thornton doesn't. I think you definitely listen when someone calls, but if you "heavily shop" him it probably hurts his value.

No one is untouchable, I would definitely trade Sale for the right package of players. There are probably only 4-5 franchises in baseball that could offer a suitable package though.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Jun 20, 2013 -> 12:15 PM) From a certain terrible writer on the boo-yah website: Dream deal Jake Peavy and Alex Rios to the Texas Rangers for Justin Grimm, Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson and Joey Gallo. In Peavy, the Rangers solidify their rotation behind Yu Darvish with a fearless veteran who still can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. If he remains healthy, he can consistently pitch into the sixth, allowing the Rangers’ relief corps to shut down the last three frames. The White Sox need solid pitching prospects and former Georgia Bulldog Justin Grimm gives them a sturdy right-hander who could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. The other prospects are still in Class A or below, so all provide ceiling while being far from a sure thing. Seriously, I LOL'd at this. Not a chance Texas gives up all of the last 3 players mentioned. Not sure about that, all three of those players are a long way from doing anything at the ML level and the Rangers are trying to win. The odds aren't great that any of those guys will make it to the bigs, Gallo is all power and its no sure thing he will ever hit enough to make it up the ladder. Brinson also has questions if he can make enough contact to ever make it, both of those guys have almost twice as many K's as H's and a 4:1 K:BB rate. Alfaro probably has the best chance as hit bat will likely play behind the plate. Though, if we are taking fliers on lower level guys, I would rather have Sardinas, Odor, and Guzman.

I'd like to bring in Rodriguez and Bridwell. Though I wouldn't be mad if they got Delmonico instead, this system needs all the LH bats it can get.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Jun 19, 2013 -> 09:10 AM) http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,3888104.story Mr. Hahn doesn't seem totally convinced yet, although what else is he going to say publically at this point. It does seem that most of us here at Soxtalk have resigned ourselves to this fate however, as the debate about whether to be sellers or buyers has seemingly morphed into who we sell, for what and when. No reason to make any deals at this point unless someone is going to overpay. As the deadline gets closer and more injuries and suspensions occur, contenders will get more desperate and pay more of a premium.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 19, 2013 -> 07:13 AM) http://sports.yahoo.com/news/team-report-c...08549--mlb.html Looks like they're targeting the 3rd week of July for a Peavy comeback. But still hasn't even been given permission to ride a stationary bike or do any kind of movements or exercising. That gives him 2, at best 3 starts before the deadline. Most likely, 2. That should be enough for other teams to gauge his value for the deadline. The key is to make sure that he is in a position to succeed when he gets back. I am sure teams will be scouting his rehab games as well.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 10:27 PM) Any hitter who has the projected ability to hit 20+ homers has to be the priority right now. Hawkins, Thompson, Barnum, you simply can't win with a "small ball" approach at USCF. The likes of Walker and Sanchez are complementary players, although Sanchez has a decent shot to be a starter in the middle infield. Totally disagree, we have a lot of power in the system, what we dont have is guys that make consistent enough contact. We need table setters for the power guys that you mentioned. Sanchez has a good shot at being a #2, but we don't really have a true lead off prospect. Anderson could be that, but he is another guy who has questions around his hit tool. A lot of teams are successful building with guys that get on base and then acquiring power to go with that. You have to be able to win games in more than one way.

My list: 1. Courtney Hawkins - Huge power, tremendous athlete, refined approach after injury has him headed the right direction 2. Trayce Thompson - Great athlete, good power, still has a pretty high ceiling 3. Erik Johnson - Strike thrower, 4 major league pitches, ceiling is probably middle of the rotation, but has a high floor 4. Josh Phlegley - Major league backup as a floor, scouts have always liked his bat but have had questions if he can stay behind the plate 5. Carlos Sanchez - Solid track record playing above his level, could be a solid #2 hitter 6. Tim Anderson - Good athlete, tremendous speed, hit tool is a question mark 7. Keon Barnum - Good power potential, injury issues may stunt his development 8. Chris Beck - Major league floor, middle of the rotation ceiling, needs to refine control 9. Tyler Danish - Great stuff, ceiling is a top of the rotation type 10. Trey Michalczewski - Troy Glaus comp with power from both sides and a strong enough arm to stick at third

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) No. The White Sox are in a position where they absolutely need to deal starting pitching. When Peavy comes back, the Sox will be sitting on 6 major league level starters again. They could run a 6 man rotation for a week or two until the deadline and maybe skip a Sale start or something like that, but doing that for more than a couple turns is intolerable with a staff full of young guys who can benefit from work, and moving Axelrod or Santiago to the bullpen is intolerable given that they're legit pieces who could be even bigger contributors next year if we give them their time this year. If you're worried about pitching depth next year, starter #6 next year is named Erik Johnson, he'll be sitting at Charlotte waiting for a shot, and then there are other fill-in options if we need a spot start. I don't know which starter it will be, but one of the starters needs moved in July unless we've somehow climbed back into the race. I would like to bundle Santiago and Crain to SD for Kyle Blanks, Alexei Amarista, and Adys Portillo. SD needs the pitching depth to make their playoff push and Blanks and Amarista are bench players for them. Portillo is a lottery ticket with a big arm and is still pretty young.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 01:42 PM) Depending on what Hahn is expecting of the '14 season, I would actually expect him to deal Reed this winter. Hard to find a comp deal to what Reed would bring, but probably not as much as people think. The closest comp would probably be Andrew Bailey getting traded to the Red Sox where he brought back three prospects - major league ready OF Josh Reddick, middling prospect Miles Head, and high ceiling/low floor Raul Alcantrara. I would try and deal him during the summer when someone may be more desperate to overpay. Remember the last time we had an affordable young closer to deal and all we got back was Nester Molina who is toiling away as a 24 year old in AA.

The Pirates could certainly use a SS and a return of Justin Wilson, Dilson Herrera, and Andrew Oliver would be a pretty good deal for both sides. The Dodgers are out of it and won't be adding any pieces to contend this year, so they are probably out of any moves we will make unless they try to dump an OF. The Reds could use a SS and a LHRP so a package of Alexei and Thornton may be attractive to them. The A's and Orioles need an upgrade at 2B. With Tex's season in jeopardy, the Yanks could be looking for an upgrade at 1B. Orioles also need an upgrade at DH. The Rangers, Orioles, Rockies, Padres, and Royals need SP help. I wonder what the Rays would give up for Reed?