JUGGERNAUT

There's one other way we can get BMac, Anderson to the Reds for KGJ but it requires the Reds to put their complete trust in the CWS. The two teams could split the one trade into 2 parts: during ML waiver period & after ML waiver period. The CWS would have to agree to pick up more of KGJ's contract as collateral for what they promise to give in return in talent in Sep. Aug: KGJ + $10M for mlers from the CWS that don't have to clear ML waivers Sep: $10M + some mlers from the Reds for a pkg of players the Reds want who are not on the CWS playoff roster I believe, that would allow the CWS to complete a trade involving BMac & Anderson for KGJ.

That's the first intelligent rebuttal. Thanks for reminding me of the rule: every team in the league you play in gets a chance before any team in the other league. It's a dumb rule that makes no sense in the modern age of FA but it's not one the CWS can overcome. Maybe they'll revisit it in the off-season or better yet adopt Stark's suggestion of doing away with ML waivers altogether & extend the trade deadline to Sep 1st. Well that sucks. It looks like the guys that helped get us the 75 wins are the guys who are going to have to get it done in the post-season.

No it's common sense. This isn't X-Box. It's the real world. There's consequences for the dumb-arse moves you make.

First off you don't just put him on the list. You call the GM's first & get agreement from those teams that can claim before the Reds. A refusal to agree would not only spoil trade relations but it could also come back & haunt that non-contender. Say a few years down the road that team reverses roles with either the CWS or the Reds. The Reds or CWS would then be inclined to return the favor. Secondly if a non-contender did decide to play the spoiler (even after giving their word not to) you can always pull the player back. The only risk is that you get a one shot deal involving that player.

It's the same principle. The GM knows very well that the White Sox would be putting these players on the ML waiver list for the SOLE purpose to complete a trade. They know if they put in a claim the CWS will just pull the player back. So TBD has no chance of getting the player & all they accomplish is wrecking trade relations with the two clubs. It would be assenine to do that. That's why I doubt there's much history of it ever happening.

It seems pretty simple to you because you're negating the impact that will have on trade negotiations between the CWS & PIT. PIT knows they won't get BMac if they put in a claim because the CWS would just pull him back. But if they want to play the spoiler anyways then they risk good trade relations with the CWS. Considering the history of trades between the two clubs that would be a pretty stupid thing to risk on their part. I doubt very much that non-contenders take an active role in thwarting trades like that. If you have a historical reference suggesting otherwise lay it on us.

Keep in mind only SF, PIT, COL, TB, SEA, & KC are higher in the waiver claim order than CIN. Contenders can not block CWS players going to CIN. They can't block any players going from the CWS to non-contenders. They can only block the players from non-contenders going to the CWS. But that's where $$$ comes into play. I'm sure KW is on top of this. If there is any hope for a plan B he's sure to complete a deal & get us a solid LH bat.

How often has a lower record team claimed players going to the non-contender to block a contender? I can't recall any such year. I don't think we can rule it out just yet. Keep in mind any player the White Sox request ML waivers on to facilitate the trade the Reds get to claim before any contender. Teams with worst records than the Reds would be the only ones to block it. Why would they do that?

Maybe the Reds COO was hinting to Williams to throw in BMac (a potential #1). Keep hope alive I say It's getting interesting at least. Anderson looked good out there. If he continues to play well the next week or so maybe we can swing KGJ for a hot Anderson, BMac, & PTBNL. Would you do that & do you think the Reds would bite?

His contract might cost more than what the columnists have mentioned: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_2...ts_archive.html KGJ: $116.5M/9 (00-08), $16.5M/09 opt ($4M buyout) 00-08:$12.5M/yr, deferred $$$: 00 $5.5M, 01-08: $6.5M The Reds haven't paid a dime of the deferred $$$ so the full $57.5M remains in the balance. That begins earning 4% tail end of 2008. The last payment of which is due by 2024 ($16.5M). That means $41M is owed from 2009-2023. The financial terms state specifically that $57.5M is deferred & will begin earning 4% interest after the WS in 2008. I believe that means a team claiming him off waivers would have been on the hook for all of it. So there's really $81M left to pay on that contract. I think the media has been assuming that the Reds would pick up $33M of it but from what I've read the contract isn't structured to where they are under any obligation to do so if KGJ is traded.

I got this from a Reds board discussion: Lindner won't let KGJ go cheaply. The White Sox weren't offering enough before the deadline. If they give up Young, Rad, Hernandez, & Honel the deal is likely to happen. Would you do a 4-1 for KGJ right now?

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/3311848 WITHDRAWN (can't be traded before Sept 1 deadline) =================================== Tony Clark, Jay Gibbons, Bill Mueller, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Willy Mo Peña, Coco Crisp, Vladimir Guerrero, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Kent, Shea Hillenbrand, Clemens, Petitte, Moyer (when he used his no-trade clause that forced the team to pull him back), Mike Cameron, Aaron Heilman, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Roberto Hernandez, Chris Woodward, Marlon Anderson, Kaz Matsui, Brian Shouse, Brett Tomko, Rob Macowiak, John Grabow, Bill Mueller, Mike Myers, Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Youkilis, Billy Wagner, B.J. Ryan, Ben Sheets, Matt Wise, Eddie Guardado, Miguel Batista, Russell Branyan, Brady Clark, Doug Davis, Carlos Lee, Lyle Overbay, Matt Treanor, Julio Lugo, Alfonso Soriano CLEARED (can be traded) =================================== Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Kris Benson, Doug Mientkiewicz, Victor Zambrano, Danny Graves, Miguel Cairo, Ramon Castro, Jorge Posada, Shawn Chacon, Tony Womack, Al Leiter, Felix Rodriguez, Wayne Franklin, Felix Escalona, Aaron Small and John Flaherty, Mike Sweeney, Sammy Sosa, Steve Kline, Ryan Vogelsong, Josh Fogg, Jason Christiansen, Edgardo Alfonzo, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, LaTroy Hawkins, Duaner Sanchez, Ramon Ortiz, Joe Mays, Tomo Ohka, Jose Lima, Bruce Chen, Joel Pineiro, Braden Looper, Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Frank Catalanotto, Dustan Mohr, Todd Hollandsworth, Todd Walker, 18 Brewers, Rafael Palmeiro, Rich Aurilia, Toby Hall, Wes Helms, Kaz Matsui and about 250 others CLAIMED (traded) =================================== LHP Chris Narverson, RHP Sunny Kim, RHP Aquilino Lopez, Jose Cruz Jr., Tony Schrager, Mike Remlinger, Olivio Astacio MENTIONED in trade talks: (From Aug to June .. ordered by recent activity) =================================== Wes Helms, Jesus Colome, Kirk Rueter, Alfonso Soriano, Phil Nevin, Alex Gordon, Ruben Rivera, Mitchell Abreu, Mark Bellhron, Luke Hochevar, Rich Aurilia, Tim Salmon, Justin Upton, Brett Tomko, Jamie Moyer, Billy Wagner, Marquis Grissom, Dave Roberts, Sean Burroughs, Ken Griffey Jr., Kevin Mench, Bret Boone, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Stairs, Dmitri Young, Jason LaRue, Brian Giles, Larry Bigbie, Adam Dunn, Kevin Millwood, Jason Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Mike Cameron, Tony Womack, Mike Sweeney, A.J. Burnett, Scott Eyre, Shingo Takatsu, Reed Johnson, Orlando Hernandez, Ricky Bottalico, Jose Mesa, Steve Reed, Jorge Cantu, Kip Wells, Vincente Padilla, Alfredo Amezaga, Tom Glavine, Rondell White, Frank Catalanotto, Endy Chavez, Joe Kennedy, Eric Hinske, Toby Hall, Rafael Furcal, Gary Matthews Jr., Danys Baez, Sidney Ponson, Odalis Perez, Jason Jennings, Mike MacDougal, Ned Yost, David Dellucci, Jim Thome, J.C. Romero, Javier Valentin, Miguel Asencio, Jeff Kent, Mike Maroth, Kevin Millar, Steve Kline, Jim Edmonds, Jose Lima, David Wells, Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Milton, Roger Clemens, Carl Everett, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Jamey Wright, Gary Sheffield, Juan Encarnacion, Kelly Shoppach, Ted Lilly, Roberto Petagine, Kenny Rogers, Brian Fuentes, Jason Schmidt, Alex S. Gonzalez, Wily Mo Pena, Jeremy Affeldt, Jeff Weaver, Edgardo Alfonzo, Alfredo Amezaga, Rich Aurilia, Javier Vazquez, Scott Hatteberg, Felix Rodriguez, Jorge Julio, Gabe Gross, John Grabow, Dean Palmer, John Parrish, Tim Salmon, Rey Ordonez, Terrmel Sledge, Mark Guthrie, Sang Ho-Moon, Cliff Floyd, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Ryan Howard, Jae Weong Seo, Jong-Soo Shim DYK? (Drayton McLane, HOU) worth $1.3 billion is 3rd behind (Pohlad, MIN) & (Lindner,CIN) on Forbes list of wealthiest MLB owners?

It's not going to happen Linder's a big FAT cow. It doesn't recognize this as a chance to stick it to the Cub.

The guy was emotionally upset. People tend to exagerate a LOT in that state. We'll have to see if Newsday follows up on their previous column. I'm starting to really loathe Linder. He stands between the Whites Sox & the World Series.

Majority means 50% plus 1. Most can mean majority but it's more often associated with nearly all. Consider an example: You have 10 petri dishes. If 6 out of the 10 cultures were good. You would say the majority of cultures were good. If 9 out of 10 were good you would say most of the cultures were good. Without question, yes. You can even assume that there are more requests for ML waivers than any other type.

KGJ can't get here any sooner. Pitiful tonight.

Batting average isn't everything. In those months Koney still posted a fair OBP & a mid 700 OPS is considered at least fair. In the past when he would slump his OBP would slump as well as his OPS. You were looking at 250ish OBP & a 650ish OPS. But he's changed. He doesn't let a slump affect his eye at the plate any more. Need more proof? Look at his R's scored during those months: Aug 04 .232A/.778OPS (fair) 16R, 21RBI Apr 05 .218A/.814OPS (fair) 11R, 17RBI May 05 .227A/.783OPS (fair) 16R, 20RBI Jun 05 .293A/.930OPS (all-star) 19R, 16RBI Think about those numbers. His worst 3 months in the past 2 seasons still produced 43R, 58RBI. Those are solid numbers. QUOTE: Any above average first basemen is gonna replace 75% of his power numbers for 50% of his future salary or less. Name me one that has averaged 500 AB's the past 3 seasons, is available to the White Sox, will be as strong defensively as Kong, can replace 75% of his R's+RBI's, & will cost no more than 25/4.

I'm just going by the way it was reported. Leading up to the deal Lee's name had been mentioned as well. The Erstad analogy is a good one. KGJ is definitely a fan favorite of Reds fans but I think the avg Red fan would trade victories for KGJ. Quote: He wasn't called that until he hit a ST homer off of the light tower. How anal can you get? The point is Borchy was a marquee name in the ml's. :rolly

I was against re-signing Kong to a 50/4 deal before this season. But he's really proven to be a solid defensive 1B. It's important to have a guy that scoops up good & has a good arm at 1B. Kong fits that bill. I don't think there's a better guy available to the Sox that offers that kind of power & defense. Likewise Kong has proven very durable so if you are going to overpay he's a safer bet than others. His numbers are now 50/4 caliber. We can now consider Kong a near 900 OPS player. Carr 200HR 669RBI .278A .347O .486S .833OPS 2005 030HR 077RBI .271A .368O .529S .898OPS 2004 041HR 117RBI .277A .359O .535S .894OPS The knock against Kong has always been he's a 2 month all-star, 2 month fair player, & 2 month poor player. But the last 2 yrs he's risen above that. Apr 05 .218A/.814OPS (fair) May 05 .227A/.783OPS (fair) Jun 05 .293A/.930OPS (all-star) Jul 05 .315A/.888OPS (all-star) Aug 05 .333A/1.286OPS (all-star) Apr 04 .299A/.918OPS (all-star) May 04 .256A/.846OPS (good) Jun 04 .287A/1.010OPS (all-star) Jul 04 .296A/.883OPS (all-star) Aug 04 .232A/.778OPS (fair) Sep 04 .309A/.974OPS (all-star) Kong still has cold streaks but he draws more walks now to avoid poor months.

Why are you looking to re-coup the loss after 1 year? I think 7 years is the average time a consumer hangs on to their car. So assuming average driving over that time you're looking at $6000 savings at the pump over the life of the car. The tax write-off & the added cost in electricty over that time is probably a wash. So economically you won't gain anything but you'll be helping the environment & the nation. Money isn't everything.

http://www.bat-girl.com/ Not to be confused with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batgirl

Do you remember the stature of Borchy when the White Sox first signed him? LTP, Light Tower Power they called him. Images of the Natural. With repsect to Linder I think we are looking at the objectivity of Disney & the Angels. They nixed a deal that would have given them both Garland & Lee because it did not include a marquee name. I think Linder is looking for a marquee name from the ml's. Borchy in his first year fit that bill. I don't know how many players there are like that today. Did BMac exceed the 27 days to where an option year was spent? If so then he would have to clear waivers & there's no way that's happening.

That was my question. Is that chat referring to today or last month? Am I right in assuming that Linder is the primary or sole owner of the Reds? If that's true then what incentive does he have to trade KGJ? There's no question KGJ's play of late has enhanced the value of the franchise more so than any other Reds player. The $22M/3 yr in cash a new owner picks up is less than 1/2 the cost of a marquee player of Griffey's stature. So even if he plays only 1/2 the year he's still a solid cost vs performance player. The $26M deferred amounts to $9.5M owed by 2023 & $16.5M owed in 2024. That's nothing in comparison to the expected rise in franchise value of the Reds over that time. Lesser known prospects might not cut it. Linder is probably looking for the most talked about players in the ml's. He's looking for a name that will bolster the franchise value after it dips with KGJ's departure. Is that BMac, Anderson, or Sweeney? Do the White Sox even have such a player in the ml? That's what makes this so frustrating. The GM, President, COO, & others involved in that July 31st trade rumor want to do what's best for the Reds to win in the near future. But Linder is more concerned with what's going to fetch him the best price for the Reds now. As prospective owners go Linder is probably the guy doing most of the talking. He's got to take their interests into consideration on any potential trade.

What exactly is there left to debate? That "most" means better than 90%? That there are close to 1200 players on ML rosters? That 90% of that is 1080? Even if you assume that most teams are 1-2 players shy of the 40 man it's still over 1000 players. That on average there are less than 250 OR & UR waivers per year? So what does that leave? ML & SPL waivers. ML can be withdrawn & SPL can't . If a team claims a player off SPL waivers they just have to pick up the contract. No cost in talent other than the impact the new player has on your budget & your roster. So what's reasonable for a SPL waiver count? 60? Add it all up & you're still looking at 700 shy of what is needed to say "most" players. Taking the Newsday article into consideration you're still 350 players shy. It's reasonable to say "LOTS" or even the "MAJORITY" but not most. Hawk's term as GM proved he didn't know how to do basic math very well :rolly

The $50M is kludgy. The team owes KGJ $22M/3yr + $1.5M this year in cash. There are two option yr's that would pay him $20M/2yr cash. Then we come to the deferred money. By the end of 2008 it looks to be about $26M. But $16.5M of that is due in the last yr (2024). A $16.5M investment growing at a modest 5% annually would be worth $34M by 2023. You've just made about $17M on the $ you owe KGJ. Subtract that from the $26M & the cost is reduced to $9M. Put another way, when measured against projected franchise value growth, investment growth, or simply team revenue growth the deferred $$$ owed to KGJ will more than make up for what is owed KGJ. So what it comes down to is the $22M/3yr. Can the Reds do better applying that elsewhere? That's the decision the Reds have to make. As for the White Sox, as long as KGJ can remain relatively healthy as a DH/1B/4th OF option his marquee value in Chicago will more than make up for the $22M/3yr.