witesoxfan

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 03:37 PM) Wite I'm shocked to hear you say this. You're usually one of the "let's just see how it plays out" type of guys. I'm sure earlier you said something similar. What changed your tune? I still don't believe anything I am reading coming out, but I'm just kind of piecing together the information coming out that I either know is not BS (or am pretty sure is not BS) while weeding out the BS. -Even the Dodgers have to have a limit to their spending at some point, and really, is spending $20 million a year worth such a marginal upgrade over a guy like Beckett, Billingsley, or Haren? -The Mariners seem to be out of money, or at least don't have the amount necessary to bring in Tanaka. -The DBacks don't seem to be a serious suitor, basically doing due diligence. -The Angels are similar to the DBacks -I don't believe the Cubs have the necessary funds to get it done, despite the rumors and quotes that have been coming out. That team is bleeding money right now and I don't believe that s That leaves the Yankees and White Sox, and both teams need him very badly. The Sox have all kinds of room to add to the payroll with quite a few commitments done after this season, while the Yankees will be in worse shape next year, especially with ARod back. I also think Hahn gets creative and offers the opt out after like 3-4 years, which will be attractive to Tanaka - if he's doing well, he can opt out and get like $25+ mill a year. If not, he stays on and still makes a buttload. Maybe favorite is the wrong word, but I really do think the stars are kind of aligning and he could easily end up with the Sox.

This is my PM to 3E8 right after the Dunn signing. I was drunk.

QUOTE (timbo @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 03:31 PM) Why would say that? Because this is America and that's what I believe.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 03:30 PM) Would you be ok with 175/7? If that's what it took - I'm in. Thankfully I'm not a GM - as you can see - blowing my wad is ummm... Likely to happen. No. I'd go 6-7 years at $20 mill with a player opt out option after 4 years.

I'm beginning to expect Tanaka to sign with the White Sox. To expound, the Sox frankly need a guy like Tanaka just as much if not moreso than a team like the Yankees. Yes, they have a young, rebuilding team, but other than Sale, they have no one in the same stratosphere as Tanaka. The team has improved quite a bit this year and frankly, with luck, could be in the playoff chase with that pitching staff. The Yankees are old and they are going to have to go through a transitional/rebuilding phase shortly, even if it's only this year and maybe next. The Cubs have done very, very little to actually improve the roster this winter and in fact their financial situation will get worse after this year, while the Sox' gets better. I think even with Tanaka, they're 2+ years away. I'm not going to be shocked/sad/surprised/whatever if he signs elsewhere, even the Cubs, but I think the Sox are the favorites at this point.

One thing that comes up on a regular basis is "this guy has to produce x to be worth $y." While this is technically true, I don't believe we should look at it like that. What you want to see is a x as low as possible with y as high as possible. Assigning actual values to WAR like that is, to me, inherently wrong. Yes, $6-7 mil is the going rate for 1 WAR on the open market, but if you sign someone to that, you should try and get better value because there are teams paying guys $15 million who are doing absolutely nothing because it's a bad contract. Those numbers get so high not because every team is paying $7 million for each individual win but because there are bad and good contracts out there cancelling each other out and tugging that value either way (which is usually up). If you are the GM, you want to bring in guys that are good and will help you win. The Rangers are probably going to regret the Choo signing in 5 years, but in the meantime, he is going to help them out tremendously and could even help them win a World Series. So, when talking about Tanaka making $20 million, or $120 million over the duration, yes he will technically need to accrue about 20 WAR over the duration of that contract (3.33 WAR per year), but you don't sign him to be a #3-4 starter. You sign him to be a 5-6 WAR starter, an ace.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 03:06 PM) Good idea. You know, it would be cool to have a section of the site that listed our top prospects lists. It could include the FS list and a 'crowdsourced' one like this. That is cool. We actually do that for our top 25...a few of us submit our top 30 prospects and we combine them. Getting the site's top 10 list would be cool though too. It's also funny how similar they are. Either we as a board develop favorites and biases towards prospects and we're totally off, we pay too much attention to numbers and not enough to tools, or we are more dialed in than so called experts.

Sabathia actually looks really thin right there.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:42 PM) Also a big difference between $25k and $10 million a year. Also very true.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:31 PM) Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 25m Steverson on Abreu: 'it actually looked better than what I thought. He is a very serious hitter. Has a plan, an idea about what he does." Hitting coach Todd Steverson on Jose Abreu: He has a compact swing and thunder in the bat head. That's a silly place to keep thunder, he should just keep it in the sky.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:33 PM) This board has changed a lot in a few years. I love the Bobby love! Remember when I almost got suspended over my Bobby love? People telling me to give it a rest, et. all? Time heals all wounds. Note that no one is saying they want him as a closer, because then we would get upset. This same ideology is also directed at a certain Venezuelan born mustachioed manager who were number 13.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:24 PM) What would happen if the Cubs got Tanaka but the posting fee check bounced? If they are carpooling to save money, there must not be much cash on hand. I worked somewhere where they told us to start printing on both sides of the paper. We weren't around too much longer. I worked at a restaurant where we would wash our own towels, wring them out, and dry them by hanging them over the side of the counter. Same story, that place didn't last much longer.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:19 PM) Maybe for Kris Benson's wife Nope, Anna Benson is a drug-addicted crazy person. Do not want.

Is this like a streak in your underpants? I always bet on those.

QUOTE (timbo @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) why do you believe bernstain does he a a source to back it up He is being sarcastic

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 12:27 PM) They just announced that Maclemore & Ryan Lewis will perform at halftime this Sunday. #Seahawks That'll be a sweet halftime show.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 12:25 PM) I thought Jermaine Dye was a mistake. He looked like it for the first couple months too. Jermaine Dead. I thought the second Konerko and Pierzynski extensions were mistakes.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 12:16 PM) Let's go back and remember all these "AJ's OPS is so easy to replace" arguments where posters put forth the idea that Flowers would be a better player than AJ and blah blah blah it would all happen so quick. I really want to point that one out because that was really dumb and lasted for a while. Not as bad as the Dan Hudson love fest though. Yes, I thought Tyler Flowers was going to be good too.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 12:12 PM) Sure seems like a lot of smoke for the Cubs the last 36 hours. There's been just as much for several other teams, and I frankly don't believe 90+% of what's being reported right now.

I thought Philip Humber had really figured it out, especially after the perfect game, and he went on to do absolutely nothing.

I thought Sean Tracey was going to have a good career as a reliever.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) This sounds more credible than anything else I've heard. Yeah, that's about the one thing I really do believe. Honestly, I like the Sox chances more and more as this thing goes on.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 10:33 AM) What younger player? Assuming Tank becomes the next DH which is very possible who takes over LF? ADA and Danks are not the answer and the Sox don't have anyone ready in the minors to take LF so Ethier wouldn't take at bats away from anyone really. Ethier would give the Sox a a lefty bat that can actually hit above his weight while drawing walks. Like I said earlier, I admit Ethier is not ideal and there are other players I would rather have but I wouldn't bed against Ethier under the right circumstances. Except that he's going to be 32 next year and exiting his prime years, while being injury prone, and still a heavy platoon player. Ethier adds maybe 1 win this year and then he will likely get progressively worse throughout the course of the deal. 3 years from now, the Sox would be left with a $10 million salary for a player that they don't want. Ethier is a terrible, terrible fit for the White Sox.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 10:15 AM) And he also exlained money would be coming with Ethier. There's no way I would take that contract as is, there would have to be plenty of money coming back. There is no way I'd take Ethier regardless of money coming back. He's a terrible fit for this team right now.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 10:15 AM) At 7/1 odds per Vegas, the Cubs come in as fourth favorites behind the Yanks, Dodgers, and Mariners. They had a contingent meet with Tanaka last week. Wonder if it was them who had this poor showing! Odds have literally nothing to do with where he's going. This is just where people are betting on him going. They certainly could have had a poor showing though. Frankly, among the favorites, the only two I can think of that have not posted and wooed a free agent are the DBacks and White Sox, and by all accounts, the Sox nailed their presentation. Given the reputation Towers has earned over the last 3 years or so, I'm guessing it was them.