witesoxfan

So the Sox are basically going to be getting guys that are going to be coming up on their Rule V eligibility soon that the Rays didn't have in the future plans. It's still damn decent of them considering Crain never threw a pitch for them. This is a good way to create and harbor relationships with other teams.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 05:41 PM) Once again, is DeAza that that coachable? Who on our coaching staff is suddenly going to turn around all these mistakes in the field and basepaths that couldn't do it last year? I certainly did not believe Ramirez was coachable, nor did I expect Rios to come out and have a 40 stolen base season (even if some of it was with Texas). I can't tell you whether or not De Aza is coachable or whether he will do anything, but the examples we have indicate that it is certainly a distinct possibility.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 06:30 AM) Yes, but if a closer gets lit up once or twice, his ERA isn't going to be pretty. As for WHIP, ironically the guy who led the AL in that category this season, also led the AL in wins.i really think this thread was started to start trouble, but I would think andy sabr guy and Hawk when listing their top 20 pitchers would have a very similar list. I don't think it's starting trouble, I think it's a thread that can breed healthy debate. It's amazing looking at these pitcher's responses and seeing the different thoughts. There are a few pitchers who are aware of FIP, but don't quite understand what it means or says, and frankly they don't have to. Scott Feldman's response is really candid too and shows he understands the concept, basically stating that ERA can be overrated, and it's true. You can have a guy go out there and put up 7 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 10 K and it's going to be considered a great outing by the SABR community but his ERA gets lit up. Typically in a situation like that, he's going to end up with a pretty good outing, but he likely just gave up one or two big hits when they were able to string a few together against him. Meanwhile, you can see a guy go out and put up 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K and while he should have given up more, he was able to work his way out of trouble. Eventually, these things even out. The pitcher who probably has the deepest knowledge of sabermetrics is also the one with the most unique response - Brian Bannister stating that Z-Cont% is the most important. For a pitcher, it's probably true - if you can throw pitches in the strike zone and have guys miss, you are going to be incredibly successful, assuming you can locate. On the contrary, if everything you throw in the zone is getting hit, eventually they'll start making good contact and you are going to end up getting knocked around. I think that's the foundation for a pitcher, and everything else is just indicative of performance.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 04:31 PM) And you expect 30-35-40 from DeAza this year, consequently? No, but the idea that players can improve their base stealing technique with age is not a novel concept.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 03:12 PM) Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 2h John Farrell said Jose Iglesias/Jake Peavy/Avisail Garcia trade was a "great baseball trade" for all three teams. #WhiteSox #RedSox #Tigers Pretty hard to disagree with that. Tigers get a fantastic defensive shortstop, Boston got the starter they needed, Sox got a good, young outfielder and a load of talented youngsters. Every team traded from a position of strength and acquired a position of weakness.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 02:35 PM) Rios is 32 and stole 40 bases, his career best. Alexei stole his career best, 30, at age 32. De Aza is only 29. Paul O'Neill set a career high for stolen bases when he was 38. It was also his first and only 20/20 season

Could modern medicine have saved Bo's career? Just an awesome read

Frankly, that lineup grosses me out. As much as we want to write Puig and Abreu in for .900+ OPS's next year, they could just as easily fall off the map like Cespedes did this year. McCann is a nice hitter, but he's been injury prone as well. More likely is that lineup still is in the bottom 5 in runs scored, plus the defense is going to be erratic as well. I'm not saying I wouldn't take Puig. I'd love him on the White Sox. He's certainly not the end all, be all for the White Sox though.

QUOTE (whitesox901 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 11:00 AM) I'm pulling for Boston all the way. If I didn't live in Tigers' market it probably wouldn't matter, but these brand new life long fans are pretty obnoxious. Jeez dude, they're 4 year olds, don't be so harsh

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:43 AM) Here you go: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...ing-calculus-2/ This cites the 2012 league-wide figure at 66%. This article also agrees with your explanation of the number dropping as run environment decreases. You're awesome I remember reading an article in the BP book from about 8 years ago that cited that and talked about run expectancy from 1B and I recognized right away that the number was likely to fluctuate. It does actually make sense to invest in base stealers right now because the marginal value of a single run has increased. If you can steal 150 bases as a team at a 70% clip, you are talking about adding between 25-30 runs, which could add 2-4 win to your total.

You know what would have been more inspiring? An inside the park home run in the playoffs

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:31 AM) AP is a freak for sure. CJ hasnt come close to the same production. Jamal Lewis and Terrell Davis fell off the table as well um... 1,234, 4.2 YPC 1,821, 4.5 YPC 1,288, 4.6 YPC 1,659, 4.3 YPC 1,311, 4.2 YPC

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:31 AM) No, no I'm not. That's a widely known standard for the breaking point between providing net positive value with baserunning and net negative. That's one of those pop stats that was even featured in Moneyball. The rule of thumb with this is 75%, but I would guess that this percentage has gone down in recent years. It's harder for a runner on 1B to score than it was 10 years ago and I would guess that that percentage has gone down at a greater clip than scoring a run with a runner on 2B (because while it's harder to get just 1 hit, it's even harder to actually string together 2 hits). I'm guessing De Aza was basically a break even, if not slightly productive, base stealer this year.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:24 AM) How did De Aza rank in 2012? He didn't seem nearly as dumb on the bases and in the field. Worse, but some of that has to do with being caught stealing. This past year, he was 20 of 28 for a 71.4% clip, while last year he was 26 of 38 for a 68.4%.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:22 AM) I don't know anything about most of that list. All it is saying is that these guys were valuable on the base paths. If you look at the bottom 20 on that list, you see a who's who of old dudes, fat dudes, and old, fat dudes. The two names that stick out to me are Yasiel Puig (-4.2) and Norichika Aoki (-3.9). Puig was 11 of 19 on steals and his baserunning blunders are well documented. Aoki was 20 of 32 in steals. I think the underrated part of those is taking an extra base. De Aza may not have good instincts when the pitcher has the ball in his hand, but he tends to read the ball well off the bat and takes the extra base.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:21 AM) You were the one arguing you can't call him a bad baserunner. You can call him a dumb baserunner. It's f***ing semantics. He's a valuable base runner, whatever

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 10:14 AM) Out of the ones I looked up the other day out of that list, none had as many base running mistakes as De Aza, so it would make sense that they would hold more value. Then it's worth listing the next 9 David Wright Ichiro Suzuki Matt Carpenter Ben Zobrist Michael Bourn Charlie Blackmon Pedro Florimon Josh Rutledge Alejandro De Aza

And I want to acknowledge that, using qualitative data, it has been agreed that Alejandro De Aza is a bad base runner. Using quanitative data, it is being disputed whether Alejandro De Aza is valuable on the bases. This is the argument I don't understand. You can be a "bad" base runner and still provide positive value. Adam Dunn is a "bad" hitter that a lot of people want the Sox to get rid of, but he still produces surplus value when hitting. Both can improve at the areas being disputed here.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 09:39 AM) As opposed to you flat out telling me that these statistics are so accurate, that people have to meet annually to fix them, but that there can't be any bias or error in the statistics related to something that they aren't quantifying correct? Please. People meet annually to tweak them, to improve them. As is, they are still pretty damn accurate. Here are the top 30 in order from this past season (min 200 PAs): Jacoby Ellsbury Rajai Davis Eric Young Elvis Andrus Mike Trout Alcides Escobar Alex Rios Starling Marte Jarrod Dyson Daniel Murphy Everth Cabrera Adam Jones Carlos Gomez Coco Crisp Hunter Pence Nate McLouth Leonys Martin Craig Gentry Emilio Bonaficio Justin Upton Carlos Gonzalez Austin Jackson Andrew McCutchen Desmond Jennings Carl Crawford Juan Pierre Alex Gordon Drew Stubbs Christian Yelich Alexei Ramirez If you won't agree that those are the 30 best base runners in the league, can you at least acknowledge that those are 30 of the most valuable - in most cases, this does mean fastest - base runners in the league?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 06:14 PM) Interesting in your link how he yelled at the judge at sentencing. The judge told him if he keeps it up he'd re-think the 12 years and give him more. I think the friend of the friend got off pretty light. 12 years and he killed a guy. Sounds like a tragic case all around. I'd think he'd get more than that, though. Maybe 30 years. In this day and age, 12 years isn't that many in a life of a 27-year old. I could see him getting 12 if he hit him with a bar glass or something and by fluke he died, but a stabbing? 12 years is pretty thin I think. 12 years in the life of a 27 year old is a long time. First and foremost, it's just under half of what they've currently lived, but if they have kids, they don't get to see them grow up, and if they don't have kids, then they probably will never have kids at that point. It's not some in and out over the weekend because you got caught drinking and driving.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 11:06 PM) Therein lies the problem with the White Sox. There's a malaise. Except for Sale, there's no player you can ever put together with "amazing" and the same sentence except when DeAza, Ramirez or Viciedo do something amazingly bone-headed, or one of Ventura's managerial moves. Or Dunn/Flowers/Konerko etc., looked amazingly inept at the plate. So if the White Sox had signed Yasiel Puig, all of their problems would have been solved. Is that what you're saying? Because if it is, think about what you're saying, say it out loud to yourself, and then come back and post again. You are not likely to say the same thing because of how absurd it is.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 08:30 PM) ........just as long as his name is not Adam Dunn. /facepalm

Christ, this argument is tired already. Let's sum this up and move on: De Aza - Bad baserunner but fast - overall positive value on the bases - STILL NOT GOOD PERSON WHO RUNS BASES Konerko - SLOW AS f***

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 14, 2013 -> 03:28 PM) I actually really liked that Marlins team at the time too, looking back at it some of the players I liked are just gross now. I was a big fan of Pierre, Castillo, Carl Pavano, Cabrera and Beckett at that point, yuck. I don't think there's anything wrong with being a fan of Cabrera. He was and still is a monster.

Let's make an analogy. Anybody suggesting Dunn is a good hitter based on his average is going to be chastised. Anybody suggesting Dunn is a good hitter because of his body of work is likely to be closer to the truth, but still somewhat wrong. People suggesting that Adam Dunn can provide positive value to a team based on his body of work but can still acknowledge that he's a flawed player are going to be right. I mean, if Dunn wasn't strong and couldn't hit the ball a long ways, he wouldn't be valuable, would he? If we can't get past this concept, then there won't be agreement.