witesoxfan

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 02:38 PM) For the next NINE seasons, which means it's not bargain basement price. He's owed about $120 million; if you can expect him to be productive for 5 years, then you're paying almost $25 million per. Knock it down to $20 mill per and then $5 mill for less productive years and there you have it. Bargain basement price? Hardly. He'd get a good, not great, return. I'm pretty sure if the Sox were run by you, the team's payroll would be $12.5 million...nothing but first year rookies who make the bare minimum. If you don't recognize that the Longoria deal is still one of the best value contracts in baseball, then I don't think you want any additional money on a payroll than the minimum.

I don't think the Sox bench is set by any stretch of the imagination yet.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 12:35 PM) His son is running the Bulls, and really would love to run the Sox. Whether that happens or not, who knows. I do think Michael Reinsdorf would be far more competent than the McCaskeys. Well it's not like Rocky Wirtz has run the Blackhawks into the ground either. I really don't think ownership being passed down is a bad thing, because a parent was good enough to own the team until they died, they were doing something right in regards to running their franchise, or did at one point in their lives. Passing it down to the next of kin is not always the worst thing in the world.

There is going to be too much at stake for the Dodgers to not follow through with this somehow. They'll give another $20-$30 mill just to make him go away.

It's a really good thing the Sox signed Zach Duke, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Melky Cabrera and traded for Jeff Samardzija and Dan Jennings or Chris Sale would be a Red Sox.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 11:26 AM) I exchanged a few messages with Dan Lifshatz (the Intern from Boston who started this whole mess) after he announced that the deal was dead. I asked him how far along he had heard things got and he said "they had agreed on a base of the deal". I followed up by asking what killed it and he said that "Chicago wants to fill seats this season, so they will try to compete. They don't have a lot of faith though." So you heard it here first, the only reason that Chris Sale isn't on the Red Sox right now is because RH, KW, & JR decided to try to compete even though they don't think they can. Ohhhhhhhhhh

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 09:23 AM) Imagine this roster without Melky Cabrera and with Viciedo. It's pretty much equally bad but with a tad bit more money. Maybe worse, far more circus music to be played in the background on average fly balls. Then I think you are one of the few people on this board who would have rather started Jordan Danks or JB Shuck in LF over a guy in Dayan Viciedo who clearly shows talent and has a bat that can carry and offense if or when he figures it out. He probably ends up like Wily Mo Pena or Wladimir Balentien and starts crushing the ball overseas, but I'd much rather take my chance on a guy who could become a big time hitter than on a couple of guys who never will be.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) Just keep in mind Hahn and KW have been touting how happy they were all the pieces fell into place. They couldn't bank on that. Right. Imagine this roster without Melky Cabrera AND Viciedo. That's a roster that has Jordan Danks, JB Shuck or some other minor leaguer getting significant playing time as a starter in LF. That does not sound like a good time. QUOTE (glangon @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 09:11 AM) If I remember correctly, wasn't tank originally a 3rd baseman. If we are retaining his services and don't need him for the outfield. Is it worth using Spring Training to hone his 3B skills? That way he could spot Gillaspie againt lefties and be a bench option to come in late. Viciedo will never play 3B again. He was awful over there.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 06:38 PM) I sure didn't like it then and I wouldn't like it now. It was a bad value trade. Nevertheless, I will continue to object to bad value trades even though that one, coupled with about 8 other moves, netted a world championship. Is/was this your reason for not liking the Samardzija trade?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 06:51 PM) The fact that the Sox have a good chance to have Chris Sale #2 be damned. I really like Rodon too, but at this point, he's also just as likely to be Andrew Miller or Brian Matusz too.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 07:22 PM) If he's that big of a Sox fan, do you think that makes him sign an extension to stay here long term? I heard he wants to be a free agent, but maybe Hahn can woo him to stay. The gist I get is that there could be some sort of hometown discount based on the market price, but ultimately he's going to get paid, and I think it could easily be a 9 figure contract.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) Ya but Tony Batista had a cool stance. And Dayan doesn't? His special moves are way sweeter too, and he has a lot of them. I especially like "watch strike 3," "swing at ball 4," and "pop up AGAIN."

I, for one, am not upset that the Royals are replacing James Shields with Edinson Volquez.

Tony Batista:10 years ago::Dayan Viciedo:now He wouldn't be a .230/25/.675 guy then, he'd be much better because the pitchers were worse, the balls were juiced, the bats were juiced, and he'd probably be juiced.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 03:23 PM) .252/.307/.333 .639 OPS over the last 3 years. That's what Bonifacio has done. It's similar but worse than what Beckham did over 3 years, and most people were calling for his head the whole time. I'd think Sanchez and or Micah and or Saladino can do that. If not, I'd hope the Sox could find a bigger upgrade at the deadline. Bonaficio brings more to the table than Beckham though. If he were brought in to be the starter at 2B, I'd be very upset, but as a bench player he wouldn't be the worst player in the world. Basically Leury Garcia with a much better bat as a guy who is fast and flashes leather and versatility but just doesn't hit enough to start. The starter frankly needs to be one of Sanchez or Johnson at this point in time.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 02:24 PM) Why is Castro, who is 2 years older and, other than 1 year, been a worse offensive player than Dayan a bounce back candidate but Viciedo is not? If Viciedo played catcher, this conversation wouldn't be happening.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 12:18 PM) I just listed blown saves. I didn't rely on them. It's the bullpen W-L record that should improve, and the addition of lots more actual saves, and both of those translate directly into wins. The bullpen W-L should/will improve because the entire team is better and the pitchers themselves are better. It will not tell us anything about the quality of the pitching itself, because for all we know, the best reliever may end up with the worst W-L because he is used in the tightest situations. Like I said, you made some really good points here and I don't disagree with the inherent logic behind any of it at all. This team will be better than last year's but until they get on the field, it will be hard to know exactly.

QUOTE (robinventura23 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:51 AM) @injuryexpert: Rumors of a failed physical blowing up the Kemp deal to the Padres are starting to get louder. That'd be nuts.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 11:35 AM) Also keep in mind everyone said these same "king's ransom" type things about David Price, and the package they ultimately got for him was somewhat underwhelming. Different situations, obviously, but the point remains that sellers often get a lot less in trades like this than the public build up suggests. Very different situations, and the Rays still got 3 pretty damn good players in Smyly, Franklin, and Adames, and he only had a year and a half of control left and the Rays wanted players who were closer to the majors along with a lottery ticket (but still highly regarded) sort of prospect. Considering how expensive he's about to get, that he's set for a very large extension or free agency, and the fickle nature of pitchers, I think the Rays did OK given that they really had little to no leverage in trade talks. Longoria is under team control at a virtually bargain basement prices for the next 9 seasons. He'd fetch an absolute king's ransom. If I dealt him to the Cubs, for instance, I'd ask for probably 2 of Bryant, Russell, and Soler and 2 others. If I were getting Bryant, I may be able to work out where I got 3 others, but they'd all be very good prospects. His age is beginning to work against him but it's not crazy to think he'd fetch a ton at this point given his contract.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) Even taking all that into account, -1.6 WAR between them framed as the most likely possibility is ridiculous. By no means do I think Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but it has him at a 139 FIP-, essentially equal to the 143 he put up in his -0.7 WAR 2012, but then getting more innings to hit -1.2. It's like the data since then didn't inform anything at all. Can you admit that seems off? This is all generated mathematically and, as I said, there's no bias, so while I think he will perform better than that, I can understand why he's projected for what he is. It's the same as my reasoning for Avisail Garcia above...it's projecting him to hit decently and to continue his porous fielding and to end up with a WAR of 0.3, but Steamer projects him for 1 WAR and I think he will put up something closer to 2. That's my gut belief based on what I know from his talent and the work he's putting it, but projection systems don't base projections based on how badly a guy wants to be good or how hard he is working, they base it on far more tangible information. There are an infinite number of factors that these projection systems aren't including that we as human beings can account for, but the information that these use is the statistics and it's incredible how much correlates year to year based on that information alone.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) Yeah I think the Sox see more than 0 from Avi. I certainly do too, but ZiPS is basing its projections on the numbers he's put up in the majors and at the minor league level. Thus far, he's been a mediocre hitter and a poor defender and he's at -0.8 fWAR for his career. Steamer projects 1 WAR, and I think we should be able to expect he will be closer to 2. I don't think these projection systems are going to be kind to the White Sox at all this offseason for numerous reasons, but none of it is intentional bias against the White Sox. Mostly they're going to be unkind because the White Sox are running out a team whose standard deviations of wins could be anywhere from 77 wins to 95 wins, because there are a lot of real, legitimate candidates for regression on the team but there are also a ton of candidates for breakouts too. I haven't been opposed to any move Hahn has made this offseason moving forward either. They're trying to compete the next two seasons while doing nothing to really hurt their chances moving forward.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 09:49 AM) So the most likely outcome for Danks and Noesi is that they each have the worst year of their careers. Did they both turn 42 and I wasn't aware? With regards to Noesi, my guess is that it's looking at his AAA and MLB career prior to arriving with the White Sox and putting a lot of stock in that. It's legitimately possible that Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but that would assume his talent has changed and comparing all of his numbers across the board, there doesn't appear to be any significant talent change. If there has been, we will see it this year and projection systems will reflect it more next year. With Danks, it sees an aging pitcher losing velocity with mediocre to poor strikeout numbers whose command worsened, implying that he's going to allow a lot of baserunners and he's going to be completely dependent upon his defense to get out of those situations and will allow more home runs moving forward. Again, unless there is a shift in talent somehow, it's safe to assume John Danks is going to be bad.

That's 29 zWAR. There are absolutely areas where they can improve amongst that too internally, with the keys being RF, 4/5 in the rotation, and perhaps C and 3B. The bullpen is going to be projected 2 but that could easily be a 4 or 5 too with progression from young players. Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this, but the only thing I ever really saw wrong with the Steamer projections was Quintana.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) At the time, if the Sox did not tender Viciedo, Danks or Shuck would be your starting LF. That is just too risky to even think about. Plus there's no guarantee that a player like Ichiro would want to come to the Sox. QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) I was complaining about tendering Viciedo a contract a couple of days ago but with the ability to cut him and only take on 750k or whatever, there was really no point in not tendering him a contract. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) It would really be surprising if it went that far. I am pretty sure they knew they could trade him. $4 million isn't all that much, and despite what a lot want to think, this guy is still pretty young and has a lot of power. All of these posts hit a lot of nails on a lot of heads.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 04:43 PM) Basically the new bullpen will not walk as many guys and will K way more . Though Hahn loves groundball pitchers, I'm sure he realized that a good bullpen should pile up the K's. Robertson's and Duke's K's/9 indicate as much. Both are groundball pitchers too, especially if you believe in Duke, who put up a 57.7 GB% and 2.83 GB/FB last year.