witesoxfan

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) Wouldn't be surprised if Micker is knocking on the ML Team's door in 2017. That would be Micker Adolfo in the majors in his age 20 season. I'd be incredibly surprised if he's up before 2019.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:50 PM) I don't think any of us realized just how bad of a head coach Trestman was. I literally think he'll go down in league history as one of the worst head coaches on the planet. He's about as big of a disaster as I've ever seen (especially for someone with his record). I realize Marinelli had his 0-16 year with garbage talent but when you look at the whole story, wow is all I can say about the Trestman era in Chicago. No one will ever top Rich Kotite.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:36 PM) Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 6m6 minutes ago Ken Williams said Cabrera had 4 year offer from another club, took 3 with White Sox. Really, gonna post the tweet and not post the link? Because in this instance https://twitter.com/CST_soxvan/status/544967314701967360 (if you are around people, this may be mildly NSFW)

I honestly hope they bring him back. He really would be a nice guy to have on the bench. Frankly, now that Cabrera is in the fold, I'd rather go with someone like Sierra on the bench over Viciedo. I don't mind the idea of Viciedo, but Sierra makes a lot more sense as a bench player.

There is a lot of this logic with which I do not disagree and can relate, but the usage of blown saves and W-L for the relievers is pretty silly. Blown saves from middle relievers tell you very little and they are incredibly vague as it is. If a previous reliever loads the bases with no outs in a 1 run game, the new reliever comes on, induces a double play and strikes the next guy out (leading to 1 run), he is credited with a blown save. That is not usually the scenario, but that scenario exists. Also, the Sox were a terrible team last year and brought in 3 relievers from teams who were decent to good. Their W-L record being better ultimately means nothing. Frankly, if you had just said "they brought in 3 relievers who were good to very good last year to replace 3 relievers who were crappy to really crappy," I'd have had no qualms with this. I'm currently expecting about 84-86 wins, and I think that could easily be way higher.

Even knowing that Samardzija wants to cash in and stuff, I don't think there's any way he's leaving after this season.

I get that there are dumb teams, but there are also other QBs who are going to be available that are comparable to Jay who are going to be free agents. Frankly, I'd be OK with them looking at a guy like Locker, Bradford, or even Matt Moore, and that's not including the possibility of guys like Cam or Kaep who could eventually become available as well. Plus the Bills are going to have to do something extension wise for Dareus and Hughes in the next couple years too. If Cutler were a free agent, it might make sense, but until he's released, I don't see anyone other than an absolutely moronic team trading for him. Again, I see him as the least valuable QB in the entire NFL. He's signed to a contract that's valued at that of an elite QB, even with only 2 more guaranteed years, he's never been viewed as anything more than a disappointment, and he's going to be coming off an absolutely atrocious year where seemingly all of the numbers he put up were in garbage time. I don't feel he's the worst QB in the league, and as a free agent he'd be worth a shot because he's been an OK QB in the past, but given his contract and the season he's coming off, there's no way I'd even consider giving anything for him.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:45 PM) Well, he can't be any worse than Paulino. Careful...

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:24 PM) Depth You call it depth, I call it ace + ace + ace + ace + ace = WSWS

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:14 PM) As a pitcher or outfielder? Why not both? I know he and Brad Penny were or are really good friends, Anderson was sort of trying to piece his baseball career back together (and I recall getting back to being an outfielder, but maybe the Sox can do something with his arm, who knows?), and I know he's been talking to Hahn working to help his baseball career. He's also making an appearance at Soxfest, as I recall. What harm is there in a Spring Training invite?

Also, I bet the White Sox bring Brian Nikola Anderson back this year too. I will bet 4 internet dollars on that.

Because it's fun when the Sox sign people and I literally just said that if they can bring in someone like this who might work at the right cost, and Brad Penny might fit a rotation spot at the right cost. Seriously, there's absolutely no harm in doing this.

QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) I think Jake's initial post was fair and brought up some good questions and points. Despite all the moves I still think the Sox need a couple more to get them to where they need to be. I still see them as a team on the outside looking in. They need more depth and I think Hahn will address it in time. If they can find the right piece, I think the next biggest hole is in the rotation.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) Thanks for the bit of reality check. On one hand, it is amazing to think about the potential of Abreu with real baseball players around him. Melky instead of Beckham (though Alexei isn't horribad in the #2 spot), and Laroche instead of Dunn. It's a pretty exciting proposition. It really does seem like Abreu is the real deal, and he could put up MVP numbers next year. But as you said, expecting it would set you up for disappointment. But I still wouldn't be disappointed if he had a carbon copy season to last year. I seriously doubt he'd regress too seriously considering how he handled himself in the first and second halves of last season. It seemed as though, in the first half, he tried to hit more home runs, and did, but what followed was a lower (but not unacceptable) batting average. Then, in the 2nd half, he decided he wanted to hit for more average, and he did. Point is, he did what he wanted, not what the pitchers wanted. That being said, I'm not quite as excitable a fan as I used to be, and I can't speak for others, but as disappointed as I might be for Abreu to have a poor season, I'd still be able to chalk it up to sophomore slump and believe that he's better. Now, I have two questions for you. One, has anyone ever told you that you use the word "frankly" a lot? And two, assuming Abreu is able to "decide" whether he wants to hit for average a power, which would you prefer him to choose? Or would you prefer he went about it like he did this past season? I think it's less him trying to hit a certain way and more him hitting what the pitchers give him. There's only been one batter I've ever seen who dictated at bats, and that was Barry Bonds, and he was not clean. However, the best hitters take whatever the pitcher gives them and finds success that way. That's what I saw more of Abreu last year. As such, I think he will properly adjust and ultimately we will get to a happy medium where he's approximately a .300/.375/.550 monster all the same. He's a really good hitter. Also, I have been aware that, at times, I say "frankly" a lot. Frankly, I think that's perfectly fine.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:38 AM) For the record it was kind of funny as I went through time and could not find a Cuban player who got better their second year beside Alex Sanchez and Morales and both were kind of small sample sizes. I think I'm most interested in whether 2015 Abreu sees a power half and a contact half, or if we lose a bunch of power but see his high contact. Some of his homers were "lucky" in that they barely cleared, but from what I could tell, he was also getting tired in the second half of last season. The guy still has easy 30+ homer power. I think we'll see, more or less, a very similar year to last year, but perhaps he hits for more power as he builds up his stamina.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) So there is some sort of cultural phenomenon that makes Cubans incapable of 2 straight exceptional years? It's not "2nd year players"? No, I just got at that. Expecting Abreu to put up bigger numbers because they have Melky and LaRoche is, to me, like expecting him to regress because he's a 2nd year Cuban except that I think we actually have more correlation in the latter. I think if Abreu improves, it's because he progressed throughout the year last year and adjusted to MLB pitching and it will have absolutely nothing to do with Cabrera or LaRoche surrounding him. I think the Sox will be better offensively because they have better offensive players. I don't think LaRoche provides any sort of better protection than Adam Dunn did, and I don't think Cabrera provides any more protection than Ramirez did in the 2 hole.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:21 AM) What's the sample size on "Cubans". I feel like that's such a dumb statement that few other identifications would get away with. It's not a dumb statement, and we have a really small sample size for Cubans to the point where we don't necessarily know if there's causation or correlation or noise or anything, but I just showed Puig's numbers, Alexei Ramirez put up worse numbers, Viciedo has done nothing but regress/get worse, Cespedes's numbers have seemingly normalized too, and I'm sure we could dig more to find other examples. Frankly, Abreu could put up even bigger numbers, and the Cuban thing was correlation at this point and it is not causation. I just think EXPECTING Abreu to put up bigger numbers is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

For reference's sake Yasiel Puig 2013 - .319/.391/.534, .383 BABIP, 8.3% BB%, 22.5% K% 2014 - .296/.382/.480 .356 BABIP, 10.5% BB%, 19.4% K% Perhaps some if it is BABIP normalization, perhaps some is inducing weaker contract, perhaps some is more detailed scouting reports (including how to pitch him and how to play him defensively), perhaps some is Puig looking for better pitches and hitting the ball weaker when protecting the plate, perhaps some was fatigue playing 140+ games in the majors, or perhaps some of it is natural regression (or perhaps the aforementioned reasons EXPLAIN the regression). Yasiel Puig was still a really good hitter. If Abreu hit .300/.360/.535, are we really going to be upset? But I don't know that that line suggests he's among the best 5 hitters in the game but instead a top 15 or top 20 hitter in the game.

I ultimately do not believe his numbers will be that different if not some regression. He was really, really good last year, you guys, and the track record for Cubans in their second year ultimately suggests regression of some type.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) It is true here though. Montas has ace potential. The problem is he has a long way to go to get to realize that potential. Its the same idea as a Micker Adolfo. The kid has home run leader potential, but he has a ton of work to do to get there. The odds of it happening get much longer, the further away they are. They also get much longer the closer you get to the majors without having refined the stuff. This is a big year for Montas moving forward. Not that he's done as a potential starter if he doesn't get to that point this year, but you really, really want to see significant progress.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 06:02 AM) Trayce Thompson is about the top level prospect I would trade for Castro. I wouldn't even discuss Hawkins for him. I really don't get the infatuation with Castro. I know he's a catcher and that improves his value but, at the plate, he's been worse the Viciedo, the guy everybody is itching to see in another uniform. This was the exact thought I had. I have no problem taking a flyer on him and giving up a prospect with some talent, but Thompson is the max I go. If it doesn't get it done, then I don't worry about anything more.

You guys seriously think anybody would give up even a 7th round pick for Cutler and that contract? There's no way that's possible. Maybe if he were underpaid or halfway through the contract, but teams are on the hook for guaranteed money. I think he'd be much better with a change of scenery, but IMO, he's the least valuable QB in the league right now.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:46 PM) I agree with this. But this is reflected in the mean. It's just as likely to miss a breakout as it is to miss a meltdown. It simply isn't likely that the Sox will experience more of one than the other. It's possible, surely, but it's a less likely outcome. The distribution of those breakouts and meltdowns is, largely, what no one can nail and why the projection systems will never accurately predict a season record for all the teams at once. But, they do a good job of putting everyone on an even playing field and showing you the average outcomes. What we should take from these is that the Sox have a lot of guys who, if they act like history shows, have shown signs that their performances were better in 2014 than they will be in 2015. It doesn't mean that they won't go undefeated and have the 25 best player performances in the Majors next year, but it's a useful piece off information that we should keep in mind. I just want to expound on this and point out that the Sox have a lot of high ceiling and/or young talent on the roster that is more likely to break out, but it is also the type of talent that regresses or stagnates. If Eaton or Gillaspie come back down to earth a bit next year, are we going to be surprised? If Abreu isn't quite a demigod and is merely one of the best 20 hitters in the game, are we going to be surprised? If Avisail Garcia doesn't break out like we're hoping him to..? I can go on and on. If they remain at their level, we also will not be surprised, and if some of these guys continue to improve, we will not be surprsied. These projections are trying to find the most likely outcome. They are not trying to say "this is what they WILL do" and they never wil say that. Jeff Sullivan admits as much in the article, essentially stating that the Sox have a chance. What I want to point out that he may not have directly pointed out is that the Sox do have a lot of high ceiling talent. The one and the same Jeff Sullivan published this article on Melky Cabrera yesterday too. Within the article, he basically suggests that maybe we are incorrect in viewing Cabrera as a 2 WAR player and instead should view him as a 3+ WAR player, in which case the White Sox got a very good deal. Maybe he is a 2 WAR player based on removing both his injury year and his PED year. It's hard to know exactly, but that's a calculated decision. Adam LaRoche is currently projected for a 1.5 WAR season via Steamer but just two years ago he was a 3.3 WAR player and he followed that up with a 0.5 WAR season. They are projecting him to barely regress at all. We can go on and on and on. There is also some evidence to suggest that the Sox have historically been underprojected via projection based systems because it assumes all teams get injured at the same rate, but the Sox have been one of the healthiest teams in the league over the past 15 years, especially with regards to their pitching staff, to the point where the difference has to be acknowledged as mere noise. Perhaps some of the difference can be made up there. The bottom line is that the Sox have improved but we have no idea how much they have improved until they play the games. A conservative projection says they have more talent than they did last year but they still do not have a lot of depth. Does anybody disagree with that? Even so, if they stay healthy, and they play up to their ceilings, they could be a very good team. All we can do is watch them play the games.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:19 PM) I'm glad some people feel the same way I do. I just can't morally bring myself to support this team. I have zero respect for roiders. Signing a third roider to this team? I don't want this to be thought of like the Bosox teams that were fueled by steroids. Maybe it will get better if this team is winning, but I just can't bring myself to cheer for Melky. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8769398/...-hall-fame-vote So do you have any respect for the accomplishments of Mantle, Mays, and Aaron? Afterall, Aaron is the "true home run king," right?

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 08:05 AM) So you figure he just lost count of how many pitchers he had in the bullpen? Is it better to use a ss who's never pitched before in his life in a tie game? I said it then and I'll say it now...had Ventura managed to make sure he had pitchers in the 14th inning, they surely would have lost that game in 9. Ventura managed that game as perfectly as anyone could. Sometimes you just don't win the game.