witesoxfan

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) But there were certainly some guys in there that were more likely to succeed than others...for instance, Posey and Strasburg, there was very, very little doubt about whether those guys were going to turn into very good mlb players. Of course, you make a good point about looking back with hindsight, but let's not pretend that every prospect comes with the same questions, because they do not. Some seem to be infinitely more projectable than others. With Strasburg, there was little doubt he would be successful so long as he remained healthy. He had TJS not long after finishing his first year up and it'll probably be a miracle if he never has it again. Of course not every prospect comes with the same questions, but look at a guy like Justin Smoak or Gordon Beckham - those guys were thought to be surefire multiple all-stars. I mean, we saw with Beckham after he came up that he looked like a future monster, and he fell into some massive struggles and never recovered. That can always happen. The general point being that there are can't miss prospects that do miss. And there have been a lot of guys who have had absolutely phenomenal careers who were never ranked in the top 100 prospects. It's hard to make a trade like that when you're not forced to, you can see yourself competing while he's under contract, he's going to be a big reason why you're competing, and you can't really see yourself competing without him. Sure, you could conceivably be a competitive team due to trading Chris Sale, but it's far, far likelier that you will be competitive with Chris Sale sooner than without.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) Ideally, Laroche would be hitting 7th and Abreu 4th. We need a couple of more hitters for that (like a 2 and a 3 hitter). The only thing I think is ideal would be Abreu hitting 4th. I'd have no problem with LaRoche hitting 3rd or 5th, but really, that's a very minute matter. Getting a lineup such that LaRoche is hitting 7th would require the Sox to bring in 2-3 other absolute studs, which is completely unrealistic. QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 04:35 PM) I agree with you that ideally isn't going to happen, which (along with the continued lackluster team defense and rotation holes) is why I don't see the Sox as serious contenders next year and, thus, want to trade Alexei for young players. In the meantime, I wouldn't mind seeing a little more platooning of the guys won can't hit lefties. And Laroche doesn't really frame as a cleanup hitter to me. LaRoche seems like a perfectly sensible cleanup hitter to me. Abreu would be more ideal but LaRoche is definitely the 2nd best choice on the team, and Ventura prefers Abreu hitting 3rd.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) I think that's true - that's why guys like Cleto are still around. Still, they keep around position players that have very little upside. Which position players are those?

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 04:10 PM) Bryant, Russel/Almora, McKinney and a Dylan Cease. I have a question for everyone, when do you think the Sox window for contention opens? I would say 2016. What is your definition of contention? I think 83 or 85 wins and within 3-5 games of the top all year is contending, and I think that happens this year. If you mean favorite in the division, that's impossible to say but 2016 is the earliest.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 03:16 PM) Understood. There are maybe 1-3 teams that could get in the room. Cubs, Twins, Houston? What if you could get Stanton, Strasburg, Posey, or the like, plus a semi-established high-ceiling player, plus another pedigreed prospect, and a vet or two? You wouldn't explore that? Right now, no, because you don't know that Stanton is going to be a guy that hits 500 foot blasts at this point just as we don't know that Justin Smoak is completely bust. If we knew, those teams wouldn't trade those guys and a guy like Chris Sale goes 1st overall in his draft. If we had the foresight to actually see that those guys are doing that, then yes, you would, but we simply don't have that ability. I think that's oversimplifying, but really, the Twins have a couple of top 5 or top 10 prospects in the entire game between Sano and Buxton, but Sano was already showing cracks in his armor upon being promoted to AA with a very high K rate (even at an incredibly young age) and then he didn't play this year while Buxton, when he wasn't dealing with injuries, really, really struggled this year. I would say Bryant would have to be apart of a trade for Sale, but the Cubs probably feel he is capable of providing up to 24-30 WAR over the next 6 years (he's projected for 4 WAR based on his minor league numbers as a rookie this season). And even then, there's no such thing as a guarantee from a prospect. That's why it gets so impossibly tricky. If, gun to my head, I had to make a deal with the Cubs right now, I'd probably ask for Castro, Soler/Bryant, CJ Edwards, and probably 2-3 other riskier prospects (Ramirez, Underwood, Baez maybe?) and there's no reason for the Cubs to make that deal. That's why no deal would happen. I could be swayed one way or another, but it's never going to get close enough to make it worthwhile discussion.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) To me they(above posters) are way more worried about intangible things like "value" of a contract rather than the actual tangible things like talent on the field. But you're card analogy works as well. I don't think any of this is true. I worry more about the fact that the White Sox have 5 years of control of Abreu, Sale, and Quintana and that trading them sets that back. I would imagine it's close to 10-20% of prospects meet their potential, another 20-30% find some utility at the MLB level, and 50-60% bust. I mean, here's the BA top 20 from 2010: 1. Jason Heyward 2. Stephen Strasburg 3. Mike Stanton 4. Jesus Montero 5. Brian Matusz 6. Desmond Jennings 7. Buster Posey 8. Pedro Alvarez 9. Neftali Feliz 10. Carlos Santana 11. Dustin Ackley 12. Alcides Escobar 13. Justin Smoak 14. Madison Bumgarner 15. Dominic Brown 16. Starlin Castro 17. Martin Perez 18. Jeremy Hellickson 19. Aaron Hicks 20. Logan Morrison http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...010/269546.html Those were the 20 best minor league players in the game going into the 2010 season. How many of those guys are stars 5 years later? How many are regulars? How many have turned into utility players or relievers? How many have busted? The Sox wouldn't even be getting 4 or 5 of these guys. They'd be getting 4 or 5 or 6 of the top 100 or top 150 or top 200. The odds that they get good players out of HALF of those players is incredibly small. In the event the Sox do not trade Chris Sale (which is likely), they are betting that Chris Sale, who is already a 5-6 WAR Cy Young candidate every year, is going to provide more value along with the other players the Sox would acquire otherwise versus Sale's replacement, the package of players they brought in for Sale and that difference between those players. I'm not going to dispute that Xavier Bogaerts is a more valuable player than Alexei Ramirez overall, but I am going to say that the White Sox with Chris Sale and Alexei Ramirez is better than the White Sox without those guys. Really, how are the Sox going to replace that value long-term? They have to hope that Owens or De La Rosa or Webster or whatever pitcher(s) they got could replicate that, and it's very likely one or two of those guys end up as bullpen pitchers. Following the 2017 season, it makes a lot more sense to explore trade options for those guys. Right now it makes very, very little sense. You can keep searching and looking up top 100 lists from years gone by, but there are a ton of guys who had all kinds of promise that busted.

The Sox still play other teams and all of those other teams will still have lefties in the bullpen too. It's nice having a deep and diverse bench to try and help win games late.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 11:51 AM) No, they would hold them until they were near free agency and then trade them for prospects when their value was at its lowest, and end up with a bunch of A ball players, which is the exact opposite of what I am talking about. Selling at peak value now will allow the Sox to rake in multiple MLB ready prospects, taking a lot of the prospect uncertainty out of the equation. Yes, when they were near free agency, as in the year before they were set to leave. The White Sox would have to hold onto Sale and Quintana (and frankly Abreu and Eaton) through June of 2018 before they were faced with that exact scenario. That's 4 years from now. Again, if they wait until the 2017-18 season, then they can trade Sale and the acquiring team would still have two years of control at the ridiculously cheap cost of $26 million.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 11:16 AM) Wrong, option B is how you end up like the Royals of the 90's, having a couple stars but not having enough depth to ever make a run. Thats the option where you get to see players like Chris Sale win championships in other cities while you remenice on his time as a White Sox and how he should have won Cy Youngs, but couldn't win enough games because of the talent around him. In option "A" you move one of those players and supplement the other stars that remain with above replacement level players, if some reach star status that is icing on the cake. The teams in the WS this year are great examples, neither could be considered to have more than a couple of star players (especially with Cain out), but are solid enough all around that they make up for it. Obviously Sale and Abreu are off the table, but a Q trade could fill a lot of holes and provide enough upgrades that the Sox can contend next season and each of the years that they still have Sale under contract. I don't think that's wrong at all. The Royals, unlike the White Sox, were unwilling to spend money to fill those other holes and also made some god awful trades during that time frame. I have no problem trading Chris Sale and/or Jose Quintana after the 2017 season if the Sox have shown no signs of competitiveness, because that leaves them with something like 2-3 years of control each, which is still incredibly valuable, and gives the Sox another 3 years with the current team. If that's not enough time, it was never going to happen. However, if you fill the major holes in the lineup with either guys that are currently here or guys from outside the organization - the areas that could use upgrades from last year are C, 2B, LF, RF, DH, SP, SP, SP, and we'll just say bullpen in general - then the Sox are looking fine. That's easy to say, but you can also look at a few of those holes and pencil in upgrades - 2B is Semien, RF is Garcia, DH is LaRoche, one of the SP is Rodon, one of the relievers is Duke, one of the relievers may be Webb - and it's starting to look a lot better fairly quickly. There's no rush to trade these guys off. Yeah, if someone makes an absurd offer for Quintana, you take it, but nobody's going to do that.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:14 AM) I agree on the first two paragraphs but you can't compare him to Rienzo based on his fastball alone. That is where Montas's success and hype is coming from. Who was the last Sox starting pitcher prospect to throw 100 MPH for us and have stats like his (SSS)? Just a frame of reference. I agree that Montas is clearly a superior pitching prospect and he has the tools to succeed in the majors, but it's not about looking at his numbers. Seeing that he can control his stuff is nice, and seeing that he gets strikeouts is nice, but we'll really know if he's figured it out if his change up gets to the point where it's generating some swings and misses. If it does, he should end up with a K/9 in the minors over 10+ because a huge fastball, good slider, and good change will generate a lot of swings and misses.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 10:19 AM) We aren't even in the dog days of the off-season yet and we are bringing this up? I thought there was a tiny chance we traded Sale last off-season, but this year there is a zero percent chance we do. What Hahn would require back would decimate whatever team is trying to acquire him. Even the Red Sox. Now Quintana...if Boston put together a monster package that might be a different story and plausible since he's supposedly been talked about with other teams this off-season already. I think the problem with Quintana is that teams will be able to acquire similar or arguably better pitchers for lesser amounts. If the Red Sox offered Bogaerts, Cecchini, and Webster for Cueto right now (and it might not even have to be that much), the Reds would jump to make that trade in a second. The Sox would not even consider that trade as is for Quintana. I won't say Quintana or Cueto is better (I'd say Cueto, but I'd listen to arguments for Quintana too), so why would Boston want to pay more in terms of players when they aren't an organization that cares too much about how much they spend?

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 10:01 AM) Lol trying to have a conversation with you is like banging my head against a wall. I'm over this. Sale isn't getting traded and it's not worth my effort trying to engage in a logical discussion with you. This is because the White Sox trading Chris Sale is illogical. That's why we're struggling to have a logical discussion.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 09:45 AM) It does the Sox no good to have two really good starters signed to good contracts if the roster is not in a position to compete. If you have the opportunity to plug multiple roster holes at the same time and put the team into a place where it can contend, you absolutely must do it. Your window with Sale and Q is until 2019, and after that they will move on to a more competitive team with a larger payroll and all you will get in return is a draft pick. I don't think Sale can be traded as there isn't a way for a team to match his value, but the Sox need to think really hard about trading Q to help put the entire roster in a better position to compete in the window that Sale is still here. The White Sox have until 2019, in your own words, to do anything with the Sale/Quintana tandem. You do realize that next year is 2015, right? The Sox trading a guy like Quintana with 4 years of control would require a package like the one people on here are talking about accepting for Chris Sale. The bare minimum I'd consider taking from Boston is Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and De La Rosa, and I'd have to think about that one for a very long time. And, given what the Red Sox can give up to get guys like Cueto, Latos, Hamels, Shields, McCarthy, Hammel, Lester, or Scherzer, why would they give up what would be required for Jose Quintana? You never make anyone unavailable, but given what it would take to acquire those players, the Sox will essentially not trade Quintana or Sale.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) Because that's literally what he does lol...Please explain to me how he is not 1 player that pitches every 5th day? All I'm saying is that a starting C, SS, LF, a #3, and a #4 is > than 1 #1 SP. If you disagree that's fine, but it's my opinion. I'm clearly more of a gambling man myself and I also happen to really like Swihart, Bogarts, Betts, Ranaudo and Owens as prospects. To me its worth the risk and it could easily pay off huge as soon as 2016. but like I've said a bunch already, its never going to happen and its just a fun discussion. So everyone can get their panties out of a bunch about it. Because using the literal definition of Chris Sale's job acts as if he's some average, run of the mill pitcher. He's not. He's arguably the most valuable pitcher in the league. It's like saying "all Jose Abreu does is go up there for 550 at bats, you can find all kinds of guys who can do that." That's obviously ludicrous. The teams who make the trades for those elite players are the teams who win. The only one I can think that really worked for the trading team was the Bedard trade, and I don't think he was elite and I think the Mariners cashed in their chips too early for a guy who was not a guarantee.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 09:23 AM) Yeah because obviously trading 1 player who pitches every fifth day means we are punting for the next 3 years. Makes perfect sense. How are you taking yourself seriously right now? Chris Sale is arguably the best pitcher in the American League and you've reduced him to "1 player who pitches every fifth day." This isn't Hector Noesi we're talking about, and yes, trading Chris Sale right now means the White Sox are punting the next 3 years. You never say anyone's untouchable, but that's only if someone wanted to give you an irrationally good deal. The Sox aren't going to be trading Chris Sale.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 08:00 AM) A small part of me wants to "buy low" on JBJ but that's mostly bias as he was a personal favorite prospect of mine when he was turning heads a couple years ago in the Carolina league. Plus, he was insanely good defensively last year at CF. He alone improves our outfield defense ten fold. It's a damn shame he can't hit a lick at the MLB level. (yet.. or ever.. who knows) EDIT: I exaggerated on the "insanely good" part. I'll leave that for the Juan Lagares of the world. Still very good though. He is a fantastic defender and has a lot of upside. I'd love for the Sox to buy low on him if the Red Sox were willing to do so. The worst case scenario is that you end up with a fantastic defensive 4th outfielder which is not without value, and the upside is a 4-5 WAR player.

So, without knowing, real or fake?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 02:17 PM) You know what, I disagree. s***, I never even heard of an orange cap. You still don't need to die over something like this. How bout a cop in this case do a better job of solving this situation? It's possible you know. It's a terrible thing that happened, but there were measures that could have been taken to ensure that it didn't happen. And, had it been a real gun and he was shooting at others, then what happens?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 02:19 PM) The problem with trading Sale is it would be unprecedented. There's no such deal that has happened. Someone's going to come at me with the Teixera deal but that was just Daniels doing his HW and getting the Braves to pay a premium for a guy at the end of his rookie contract. The only comparables I can think of would be the Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker and those aren't even in the MLB. This was from 2009, when Adrian Gonzalez was still a bit of a superfreak. http://seattletimes.com/html/marinersblog/..._three-way.html Those guys were all considered really, really good prospects. but picking out any 5 of them does not result in a package that would have ultimately been worth it for Seattle to trade Felix. That's the point...you can get a package of the 5 best prospects and it still isn't going to make sense because guys can bust just as easily.

I think the more likely outcome is that some of the 2B depth is traded. My personal prediction is that the Sox trade Micah Johnson this offseason, but I've definitely been wrong before and will be wrong again.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) I checked a couple days ago, he's #4 in MLB in fWAR over the last 5 years and #5 over the last 2 years. He's a legit top 5 shortstop in baseball. Oh, and whether we believe it or not, there have been reports that this is a franchise which does need to shed payroll. He was #8 this year and is heading into his age 33 season where his biggest advantage has been his range in the field and that's starting to diminish as he's getting older. I think having him at about 8th is the safest spot to project him moving forward.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) Funny alot of people are suggesting kemp for alexei on the board but you aren't bashing their opinions like mine. Apparently any opinion of mine on any topic is not good enough for you. Wondered why it took me so long to post anything after reading the board for years. I think anybody who suggests Kemp for Alexei is wrong, it has nothing to do with you being a new poster or going after you. I'm glad you are posting and sharing your opinions even if I happen to disagree with them. I just believe that trading Alexei for Kemp adds unnecessary money to the White Sox and makes them a worse team. I also don't think the Dodgers will find that to be the best use of their resources. If the trade does happen, I'll eat my words and voice my displeasure with the move. To me, nothing about that move makes sense for either the Dodgers or the White Sox.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 12:31 PM) So the Dodgers get one of the top 5 shortstops in the game for the next year+ and remove a total of $67 million in salary obligations? I think they'd be crazy not to do that. I don't think Ramirez is a top 5 shortstop in the game either, even if I think he is a really good and valuable shortstop. Probably top 10, but I wouldn't go beyond that. Either way, I think the Dodgers can find a way to save more money than that even, plus that also leaves them without one of their best offensive outfielders. They are also a franchise who is not struggling for money right now, for $67 million over 5 years isn't really that much for them. I don't think they'd do it.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 12:29 PM) With Hanley off the market there's one less option available for the Yanks, Mets, Dodgers, Seattle etc. As time goes on I become more and more curious as to who might make the offer for Alexei that Hahn cannot resist. Don't change that channel Sox fans! I don't think the Sox will end up trading him.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 12:24 PM) Wow you don't apparently read what I'm saying. I'm not saying kemp is worth 21+ million. I'm saying if the dodgers paid him down to about 15 million a year then I would more accepting. You are acting like if the sox were somehow to get him they would be taking his whole contract which you know would not be the case. We all know kemp is not worth 21 million a year. The player I feel who is overrated right now is Hanley ramirez. He is going to get 22 million aav. That is bad. Why would the Dodgers do that? Do you really think they view Alexei Ramirez to be such an upgrade over the next two years that they'd trade Matt Kemp - who is an overrated player but not a bad player - and would kick in $20 million on top of that for him?