witesoxfan

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 05:02 PM) Where "White Sox have interest in Andrew Miller" made me roll my eyes, "White Sox have interest in Adam LaRoche" makes me think it makes a lot of sense. Everything I have head is him being a January type signing so I hope his market doesn't heat up quickly. The team should be keeping all options open for a young, impact bat and then add a LaRoche type after that guy is acquired. I agree with so much of this post it's unreasonable.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 05:13 PM) I think it's crazy that some fans think the Sox could get Seager for Alexei, which would never happen and others are willing to take Schebler for Alexei. These are two way different ends of the spectrum. The Dodgers really aren't much of a match with the Sox in terms of prospects. Even if they felt inclined to move Pederson, they could get better value of moving him for someone other than Alexei. Oh I agree, and I don't think Alexei is going to be traded. If he is, it will likely be a good thing for the White Sox for 2016 and beyond. Just that, from the Sox perspective, they don't have any real desire to move Alexei, so unless the offers are legit - a top prospect or a couple of very good prospects - there's no need to move him. Let's do it this way...the Sox just traded Alexei Ramirez for Joc Pederson. The Sox now have a monster asset on hand but also a relatively monster size hole at SS. Would you trade Joc Pederson to Kansas City (forget that they're intra-divisional right now) for Alcides Escobar? Because you should, given that Alcides Escobar is a more valuable player than Alexei Ramirez at this point in time. If not, then you can see why the Dodgers would say no to Joc, which is what they're going to do.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:58 PM) I like what you say here and agree about Semien as well. What about something like Schebler and Arruebarrena for Alexei? To me, that sounds like a lot but I admit that I do not see Alexei's value the way most on this board do. It's more interesting, but it really depends on their scouting report of Arruebarrena and how he can hit/field. If they feel he can hit a little, it may be worth it, but I haven't seen anything to indicate he will. Just so we can put these out here for people to see so we can realize how bad of a hitter Arruebarrena is, these are his minor league numbers (minors..not the majors...THE MINORS): 272 PAs, .259/.304/.417/.721, 23 XBHs, 16 BBs (5.9% BB%), 91 K (33.5% K%) The fact that his K% in the majors over 45 PAs was only 37.8% is frankly astonishing.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) .280 BA, .365 OBP, 28 HR, 14 3B and 23 2B doesn't jump out at you? You are difficult to please... I realize these numbers are from AA but still. Schebler also walked 8% of the time and struck out 19.6% of the time, both fairly reasonable numbers. He did it as a 23 year old. Here's what Marcus Semien did in the same league as a 22 year old: .290/.420/.483, 15 HR, 21 2B, 5 3B, 20 SB, 80% SB%, 17.4% BB%, 13.7% K% ...and some people here are talking about packaging Marcus Semien up like he's some two pump chump. I happen to really like Marcus Semien, but I think he's a slightly above average player at his peak, probably a .250/.330/.420 type of player with nice versatility around the field. I think Schebler is probably a similar OPS player but with fewer walks and more XBHs. Like I said, Schebler's a nice prospect. He's not nice enough to get Alexei when the White Sox are the ones who are holding all the leverage in these negotiations.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:25 PM) With Kemp's injury history I think there's a good chance the Dodgers would jump at that. To put some numbers on the comparison you just made, last 2 seasons Martin 9.4 fWAR, Kemp 1.4. Last 3, martin 11.4 fWAR, kemp 4.6 fWAR. Even if you include Kemp's monster, near MVP 2011 season, Martin has outperformed him over the last 4. In addition, Martin has been far more consistent, not putting up any negative value seasons. Kemp did that in 2010 and 2013. Again, I think there a couple teams in the majors right now who would consider taking Matt Kemp for free right now. The White Sox should not be one of those teams, but the Yankees, Mariners, or Cubs could fit that model right now.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:14 PM) Cause the guy on some other team is usually (always) more sexy than the guy on your current team. It's one of those baseball realities. Let's just hope Zach can pitch. Let's look at it this way. Is he potentially any better than Thornton? Is he better than Thornton right now? Most likely, yes. Is he better than a guy who some considered to be the 2nd best reliever in the game for a period of time? Probably not quite that good.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:17 PM) Well, where there's smoke there's fire. Looks like the Sox are going to move Lexi. My questions ... Semien is a lousy fielder at short, right? So he can't play there. Leury and Sanchez can't play, right? It's kind of scary having nobody to replace Lexi that can hit a lick and can field a lick. No, the Sox are not set on trading Alexei. Yes, there's interest and yes, the Sox should listen. No, Semien is not a lousy fielder. He has had trouble with footwork and rushing throws. That can be improved with playing time. (I feel I say this once a day) Yes, Sanchez can play it, but his range is limited. Yes, Leury can play a fine SS but he's an absolutely terrible hitter who needs time in AAA.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 04:10 PM) If I remember right, Schebler is that prospect that's on the way plus I think there's a kid in the lower minor levels as well. I think its possible we see something like Alexei and Danks for Schebler, one of Crawford/ Ethier and a low level prospect. Then there's no reason for the White Sox to make that move. Schebler could be a starter in 2016 but his numbers don't scream or jump out at you. He's not a bad prospect, but he's not worth Alexei Ramirez. Basically, the Sox have no reason to move Alexei. If they move him, they are going to get a very good, top prospect in return or a very nice package of prospects.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 03:42 PM) Don't like it based on my simple rule of no multi year deals for middle relievers. As good as he was last year, he was awful in 2013, and we know that's pretty common of middle relievers. I just don't have any confidence as to what version of Duke we will get. He was an entirely different pitcher prior to 2014. This could be like looking at Jose Bautista in 2010 and saying "he wasn't good before, I would never trade anything for him." That is how astronomical this change in talent could possibly be.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 02:56 PM) I really honestly hope this Duke signing works out, but I just know it won't. Well, I'm glad we have that solved. Better move on to 2016.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 02:42 PM) The problem is, the replacement for relievers "about to become expensive" is signing relievers who actually are more expensive. This isn't the case at all. Nate Jones was a replacement for Addison Reed, he was far less expensive. Scott Downs was a replacement for Matt Thornton and he bombed, so they went with other guys throughout the rest of the 2014 season. Zach Duke is a replacement for Scott Downs. Also, I do believe you're wrong if you are insinuating that Belisario or Duke were somehow the replacement for Addison Reed. I think they were planning on signing Belisario anyways and Duke is going to take on a totally different role.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 02:34 PM) He was 1.7 in 2013 when he had to be moved. Duke was 1.3 last year and it got him $15 million for 3 years. Interesting Steamer has them both at 0.3 next season. Looks like he would have been a bargain to hang on to. Except that the White Sox also got a prospect in Davidson. He looks like a bust at this point, but he's still here. If he hadn't, you wouldn't be singing this tune. He did, so you're singing the hindsight card. If the Sox traded Jake Petricka or Daniel Webb for a similarly talented prospect, I hope the Sox make that move again. Those guys aren't even expensive and I'm hoping they'd make a similar move if it presented itself. If this move flops in year 1, you are going to see people saying that they wished the Sox wouldn't have given him that 3rd year. The idea behind the move - bringing in a lefty reliever - is a worthwhile move.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) Contract way high to me that's a lot for a LHR. 3 yr/9 mil would of been the max for Duke to me. Duke probably received something like a 1 year, $6.5 mill offer or a 3 year, $15 million deal. If you offer him 3 years, $9 million, he's going to bet on himself and take the 1 year deal. If you offer him 2 years, $10 million, he's going to bet on himself and take the $6.5 million 1 year deal. The Mets probably would have paid him extra in a front loaded deal to take away the risk of a 2nd and 3rd year. The White Sox safeguarded themselves by spreading out the cost of the deal so as to save money in the budget for the rest of the offseason.

Ultimately, I would have liked to have safeguarded this a bit by not guaranteeing the 3rd year, but the Sox believe in the change he made and believe it's sustainable. They are betting a lot on their scouts on this one in hoping that they'll get a great lefty reliever for 3 years. This is also not an unreasonable AAV. Teams are paying approximately $7 mill per WAR on the free agent market at this point. If Scherzer signs a $200 million deal, the signing team will expect him to produce 28.6 WAR over the duration of the contract. Given that the White Sox gave Duke $15 mill, they are expecting roughly 2 WAR. He basically has to be effective. He doesn't even have to be particularly good to make this a valuable deal for the Sox.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:46 PM) Whenever I saw Ethier hit last year, he looked like someone who lost a lot of bat speed. Unless it's a deal for Danks, I don't want him in any deal where the Sox are giving up something good. That's what I've read in a lot of places, which is what gives me caution in the Sox taking him on and makes me think that, if the Sox acquired one of the high priced Dodgers outfielders, it might be Crawford instead. Not sure how I feel about that or Ethier.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:39 PM) I love how it smelled at the poker table. What did it smell like? I can't imagine anybody would like that smell, let alone LOVE it.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:36 PM) I'm surprised by the third year, but if he can repeat his success from last year, it's not a bad contract at all. This is my feeling as well.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:31 PM) Anyone think they may have something else to announce later as well? What's the point of waiting to announce it? Finalizing fine print, getting a jersey with his name on it ready, taking a quick physical, getting the room set up for a press conference, allowing time for media personnel to get there. There could be a zillion reasons logical or ridiculous.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:22 PM) Will you eat a hat if they sign him? Yes. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) So its a 99.9999% no?

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Really hope they add another left hander to the pen. If it's miller then I would ok with this deal otherwise it's I'm worried. Sox haven't had good luck signing good left handed reliever. Hopefully he doesn't turn into will ohman or scott downs. Hopefully he doesn't continue his jekyll and hyde seasons. I guess time will tell I'd give them a one in a million shot of signing Andrew Miller at this point.

A brief on Duke: Your browser does not support iframes. This was October of 2012 with the Nationals. Notice the 3/4 arm angle and how long the batter can see the ball. He gets the guy out, but with so much time to see the ball, you are going to make much better contact with the ball. Pitchers can still be successful, but they won't get strikeouts with the stuff Duke has. Your browser does not support iframes. This was in September for the Reds of 2013. Notice that he's dropped down and does a much better job of keeping the ball behind him. His breaking ball also has a much better sweeping motion to it. This seems to be a change he made while rehabbing or pitching in the minors of 2013. His splits after coming back up in 2013: .205/.244/.308, though the K% wasn't there yet. Your browser does not support iframes. This was in May of 2014. He's still coming from the side, but he's even sped up getting the ball to the plate. It comes in at 91 but with the inability to see it, it looks a lot faster than that. --- I could see this backfiring, but I'm really OK with this move.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 11:49 AM) His K-rate went from Buerhle to Kershaw. I doubt that continues. If you go from throwing fastball, cutter, changeup to two-seamer, cutter, slider, curveball, you can see drastic changes like that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 11:46 AM) This guy has been horrible for a while both in the bullpen and starting. He has one crazy good year. I read on here don't spend money on the bullpen. REGRESSION is almost guaranteed. It's worth a little money to see if he actually has become someone you can count on, but not a lot. As I just pointed out, the one good year also coincided with an increased usage of cutters (or sliders) and curveballs. Based on his pitch usage charts, he's not throwing anything straight anymore.

I'm good with this. There's a little bit of a Will Ohman feel to this signing, but Duke was really, really good last year and it coincided with him throwing a cutter.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 11:35 AM) Ethier is 32, makes $18 mill and is, at best, a platoon hitter at this point. Why? Because he'd be more valuable to the White Sox than John Danks.