caulfield12

Pretty unusual to see Boras calling out a GM in such a way...while simultaneously praising him for managing his load well (preserving an "asset"). That said, with our draft luck, the compensation pick (especially a high schooler) unlikely to have much of an impact on sustaining the current window anyway.

From all of Hahn's comments, you don't get the sense that you will see this move. More like standing pat with Vaughn/Sheets/Engel and then mixing and matching at DH. Obviously, that leaves you with a pretty terrible defense outside of CF, and the times when Engel's in right (assuming he is back again.) Really would like to see either Marte, but trading Vaughn and some of the other contracts expiring means everything would really be in a state of transition in 2024...like the Twins have found themselves at this season and heading into next year with Buxton, Maeda and Donaldson.

Don't forget Jenks off waivers.

"He's been terrible in convos, and usually doesn't even return calls for 2-3 days." Rick Hahn quotes that will never occur. Obviously, he wants to get back to his closer's role with another contending team.

The real question is are they going to value controlling the payroll in that $175-180 million range or really go out there and aggressively spend on a finishing piece or two...nearing the $200 million mark. Never in our wildest dreams was a $200+ million plus payroll possible, but we're definitely in that vicinity for 2023/24...especially if we are extending Giolito and/or TA. While we have some of those older, higher-priced veterans coming off the books, we also have bumped up Lynn significantly, and there's Moncada/Jimenez/Robert going up in their salaries as well over time. The biggest factor is we don't YET have obvious competition in the AL Central...which means at least for this season they can hold off until June/July instead of committing all that additional payroll money so early in the off season. The only real pressure is advancing in the playoffs, rather than getting there in the first place (which is obviously a sign of progress, but there's also the danger of complacency we saw in the second half this year with nobody to really press the White Sox.) In fact, looking at what the Braves did with their four adds to OF/DH only strengthens that argument, as well as the Cardinals' second half surge.

Kimbrel=Alex Rios in the all-time pantheon of interesting contract maneuvers...obviously, much less of a commitment financially but pretty much universally-disliked for their time with the Sox

Just the ballpark estimate of what similar profile pitchers at his age and performance level are going for... The other thing he has going for him is actually proving he can compete in the postseason over the last two years. Both guys are really tough calls...we obviously were willing to go long-term for Wheeler and Tanaka before him, but those pitchers have been few and far between for the Sox since Danks' deal went south.

They still aren't going to sign Gausman for about the same amount they're unwilling to extend Giolito...

Depends if you're as confident in Katz as the Giants were with their staff evaluating guys like Gausman, DeSclafini and Alex Wood. The obvious point there is not to buy at peak, but to take undervalued or overlooked buy low guys and turn them into assets for your team, like Rodon and Lynn this season. The bigger point is they all become much higher risks near $20 million, with just 2-3 exploding deals capable of sinking the team if you hit those potholes. And we don't have the farm system depth on the pitching side to cover for them like on the position player side of things.

Cabrera had 4.4, 4.8, 3.5 bWAR in 3/4 seasons before signing. =12.7/3=4.233 Do we expect Conforto to beat that? Hmmm….And he got 3/$42 million seven years ago. Adjust for inflation, $48,666,666. 4/$65 extrapolated out over four seasons, to adjust for Cabrera being older. Exactly the same contract everyone’s speculating on Conforto receiving to win his services. Or was Rick Hahn simply overvaluing/overpaying Cabrera…? Ah yes, that domino effect to get Robertson and LaRoche on the Sox FA bandwagon, too. Hmmmmm.

See Cain 2012, Bumgarner in 2012 and especially 14…the Cubs had Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks in 2016. Royals in 2014-15 the only counterexample, Chris Young their best numbers and Yordano Ventura ace stuff but not yet fulfilling his full potential.

It’s not revisionist to say the Cubs got a better return for Kimbrel when we didn’t even really need him compared to Bryant, and which also would have been a much tougher pill to swallow had he led the White Sox to the World Series in their arch rival’s uniform. That would have been a disaster for Ricketts, from a PR standpoint.

Obviously not as cut and dried as you say or we would have been able to add Kris Bryant over Kimbrel. How/why in God’s name would we need a set-up guy over a RFer? And was the Cubs’ return for Bryant stronger than Madrigal/Heuer? I think not…Heuer alone could put up better numbers than Kimbrel alone did in Chicago, for 1/15th the price.

Conforto’s the 2022 version of Melky Cabrera…really good but not an elite player.

Sure, that’s the ticket. "I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me." Just keep repeating that to yourself.

With Seager likely gone and limited control over Turner, the Dodgers might be better served holding onto Lux. They also have Muncy and Bellinger, to name two, for 1B. I might be tempted to go Taylor or J.Baez over the Conforto move to provide more positional versatility. There are obvious erratic offense issues, and particularly RHedness issues, as well as tons of K’s, too. Conforto’s younger than Taylor by at least two years. Gausman will be a priority for SFG to bring back, considering they’re likely losing DeScalafini and Wood…and that’s a huge amount of risk for an outside pitcher considering we won’t even give that deal to our “own” Lucas Giolito. That said, they almost have to swing for the fences bringing in another starter to bolster the rotation. I just don’t think JR wants to commit to those kinds of long-term pitching contracts that go beyond the 2023 season…certainly not past 2024, which could be Tim Anderson’s last White Sox season. (Giolito and Lynn both could/would be gone after 2023, along with Grandal and Abreu.) That will definitely be a crossroads season for determining if the window can successfully be sustained. Moncada, for example, will be $13 (2020) & $17 million through 2023, then exploding to $24 and $25 million in 2024/25 (option years). Unless he’s putting up 2019 numbers the next two seasons, he’s not worth that kind of salary unless we are willing to run $200+ million budgets over those seasons.

The real debate isn't over the White Sox being a playoff team (which wouldn't have been possible without the Big 3 trades) in the AL Central, it's the really tough finishing or over-the-top moves to get this team to the next level...at least to the ALCS. Anyone who watched this team the second half, post-season or looking at their present roster compared to August 15th (especially where Rodon and Lynn were both consensus Top 5 AL Cy Young candidates still)...#5-8 seems a lot more realistic than #2, until they at least have addressed 2-3 of their five obvious issues. With 2-3 of those addressed, THEN you can start talking about #2-4 in MLB, but ONLY then IMO. RF 2B Back end of rotation Replacement/s for Kopech/Tepera/Kimbrel Back-up catcher

They already had a "handshake" deal to offer (but not accept) in order to get the pick back?

You really believe that Brooks Boyer's ability to market the team doesn't ever enter a conversation...? It's certainly not a PRIMARY consideration, or even in the Top 5, but it's somewhere on the list. Baseball is still the entertainment business, and position players are obviously easier to sell to the fan base. But no, nobody will be all that excited about Schwarber's addition because we already have 7 DH's on the roster. Although Sheets and Collins are the only left-handed ones, not counting Grandal as SH there (yet) unless they shock the world and add an everyday catcher instead.

Yes, there's the kill two birds/one stone effect with Baez, Soler and Schwarber in terms of the marketing/former Cubs angle.

Rodon, 2021, haha. Dye and AJ, I guess....you can argue about Pods, certainly 2005 better than 2004. Quentin was a trade, same with Floyd and Danks back in the day. Robertson held his own but certainly wasn't a bargain...in fact, most would argue it was a bit of an overpay. Then you have to fall back to "international free agents" like Abreu and Robert.

This is just tempting fate with all the pitching injuries across baseball the last 2-3 seasons....and almost zero depth behind Lopez. I guess the argument is we could still win the division with Stiever/Lambert but not both also in the rotation as replacements. Or at least tread water until the trade deadline. Guess we will get the old Crochet in the future pipeline too canard. We heard this year a lot about Moncada's contract exploding in the option years...feels like we really only have two years of clear window remaining unless we get new deca billionaire ownership.

We can also argue that he pitched 125 innings per year his first four seasons. Of course, the major injuries in 2019 as well as 3/8th's of a season in 2020 drive the overall numbers down. He pitched 132.66 this year and projects for a 3.8 fWAR and 154 IP at STEAMER. It would be pretty shocking if we got that out of Kopech next season. Certainly not a 4.9 fWAR like Carlos put together this year. That's a $25-32.5 million pitcher in today's/Balta's FA baseball economics.

Less competitors when we trade 1-2 of our 6-7 DH's (including Collins, loosely).

Marcus Semien (the whole defensive recognition for overwhelming offensive and above average D award), O'Neill (St.Louis), Adam Duvall...among the interesting names that won.