caulfield12

I think so...because her expertise in economics/consumer protection/law is going to come in especially handy going into Great Depression II, not to mention her policy wonkiness covers for some of his obvious weaknesses. Whitmer, Klobuchar and Harris continue to hover near top, with Cortez Masto (NV) and Lujan Grisham (NM) in the underdog position.

Now he can simply blame Brian Kemp in Georgia (still hard to imagine losing the state, maybe 25% likelihood if there’s a huge second wave that shuts everything down or even a combined fall/winter Covid/flu one), DeBlasio, Hogan, Pritzker, Polis in Colorado, etc. And “coastal elites” in general... Another immense problem is he’s already tethered to DeSantis in FLA.

If those voters watched the press conference yesterday and still vote in a way that enables Trump to hold onto power...then NOTHING will convince them. It means they would essentially prefer to re-elect a President with, what, 27-30 allegations from various women, numerous payoffs, obvious and incontrovertible connections with Epstein, etc. If Warren is named as VP and the Sanders agenda gets highlighted as much as possible without a national convention...things will smooth out simply because the House of Representatives and Senate wouldn’t get anything significant accomplished during another four years of Trump. It also means Ivanka Trump running in 2024 against Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. Update: US Pork supply now down 24% and beef 10%.

Emm...practically running Bernie Sanders out of the election in the span of 2-3 weeks shows how willing they are to tack to the far far right of liberal/progressive. Nobody is buying this Biden as socialist crap...not when AOC is arguing they really shouldn’t be in the same party, along with the likes of Joe Manchin and Doug Jones. Trump’s scathing attacks on women (and female reporters) have gifted the middle of the road suburban soccer moms back to the Dems. That’s not even counting the foreshadowed threats to ObamaCare, Medicare and Social Security were Trump to win (scaring the elderly to Biden as well). The African Anerican turnout will beat HRC’s 2016 numbers by a wide margin. Pete Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Hickenlooper seem like liberals in comparison. The one big positive of this primary season is that he’s been forced just enough to the left that he’s not going to repel the Sanders/Warren/AOC progressive side of the party enough to prevent them from voting or going with a minor party protest candidate.

Trump knows he’s losing right now, which is why he’s so desperate to get the economy restarted. He’s behind in PA and Michigan by considerable margins, 2-3 points behind in WI (note recent state SC election loss) and it’s a dead heat in Florida, with his fate increasingly tied to how DeSantis handles the pandemic (results not so good so far). He resents Biden staying at home in Delaware and not drawing as much media scrutiny, simultaneously knowing he can’t stand to give up his own daily spotlight. Biden can very simply neutralize him by limiting debates to detached, online affairs...unless it looks like the race is tightening again. Trump will get desperate to do in-person rallies, likely resulting in reinfections from either the Republican National Convention or scheduling an outdoor rally too soon. Putting voters’ lives at risk isn’t going to play well, either. That’s why he would have been smarter to get this dealt with as early as possible...now it’s too late. Most voters make up their minds 5-6 months out. 75-80% of the voters’ minds are already made up. He’s underwater with independents, seniors and, most important, is underperforming in battleground states compared to solid red or blue ones...a complete reversal of 2016. And he is a laughingstock on Chinese social media about this UV light, disinfectant (Lysol already has issued a warning) tan your way out of coronavirus nonsense. This hour’s most popular vid is him talking on this subject while the camera keeps panning to Dr. Birx’s increasingly chagrined, almost pained reaction.

Why would any country want to wipe itself out in the process? Russia would have nobody left to sell oil to...China would have no markets for its exports. It’s like cutting off one’s nose to spite the face. It would just eventually lead to mutually assured destruction of the entire world through nuclear weapons...or, in the case of North Korea, regime change or China having to take over and be a caretaker of it as an additional province. In fact, you can make a legit argument that it would other normal circumstances actually bring the US together, to unite the people again like 9/11, fighting a common enemy. For China, risking pariah state status after 5000 years of history waiting to get to precisely this point doesn’t make much sense, since many believe the US will inevitably be surpassed in the next 25-50 years anyway. Why take that chance? Even if they emerged as the “#1 country in the world,” nobody would ever trust China again if the international community could prove they were complicit.

Without an American flag lapel pin!

Joe Biden has absolutely nothing to do with the current situation we are in. Obama was one of the most eloquent speakers in recent history, but campaigning is not always the same thing as leading. There was the common attack that ALL he could do was speak in terms of hope and aspirations (which was yet another backwards compliment, “surprise” at his articulateness). Biden will have a strong cabinet and especially well-qualified VP candidate if he wants to be elected. We need an inundation of the ONE quality he currently possesses in abundance, empathy and the ability to understand the problems of everyday people, to work across the aisle politically and reach out to repair relationships with former allies.

“Bryan, who is the DHS undersecretary for science and technology, is not a medical doctor. Rather, he has a master of science in strategic intelligence from the Joint Military Intelligence College in Washington, D.C. and a bachelor of science in logistics systems management from Colorado Technical University in Colorado Springs, CO, according to his bio.” Why are we not getting advice from real, qualified doctors...? With each week that passes, we actually get less medical insights and more stream of consciousness political ranting.

If your son or daughter’s teachers or minister/pastor provided the exact same advice, and one of their classmates or best friends died, who do you think would/should be held accountable? Let’s imagine just for the sake of argument they are already 18. “You don’t earn trust by telling people how good you did. You earn it by saying the hard stuff.”

Probably thinks this because he is constantly tanning to get that orange glow except for the white goggle area around the eyes. Btw, Greg, the immigration hold on green cards is not directly correlated with international flights over the last 4-6 weeks...it’s more the lack of demand, intl. route cutbacks and limits on European flights, consolidation in the airline industry. Now 13 beef/pork processing plants shut down around the US, 30 deaths from that worker community. Roughly 15% of national pork production shut down.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mayor-las-vegas-wants-open-154419267.html Las Vegas mayor (I) has brilliant idea to reopen casinos while providing them absolutely no guidance because that’s basically the free enterprise system, she’s doesn’t really know anything about the science but they can figure it all out. Literally rolling the dice on everyone’s lives to keep the tax revenue/tourism rollin’ in. “We’re offering to be a control group.” But one of her statisticians thought that might be a bad idea? She thought concerns (from China) about air conditioning potentially spreading the virus had no bearing or relevance...because, well, Las Vegas casinos, hotels, shows, shops and restaurants clearly don’t need to consider the ramifications of centralized air conditioning systems being in use. And should so many Americans currently struggling financially to make ends meet really be encouraged to book a trip? Some of the state lottery tickets being “essential” purchases is one thing, but that wasn't going to directly impact social distancing as much as serve as a regressive form of taxation. Apparently she hasn’t ever watched the first three minutes of Contagion. This is what the leading economic research has found,” he said, citing a research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). “Back in the Great Depression, the United States banned and deported most immigrants from Mexico… this act made native unemployment worse in the Depression. This is because immigrants are the backbone of many industries that massively employ Americans. A few Americans took jobs opened up by the past barriers. But more Americans lost their jobs when the businesses that depended on immigrants folded.” In 2018, foreign-born workers accounted for approximately 14% of the American workforce. Even with exceptions for seasonal farm work and front-line health workers, Clemens said, “that doesn’t even begin to capture the ways that the public health battle and the economy depend on immigrants.” He continued: “Immigrants clean the hospitals, without which an Intensive Care Unit cannot operate. Immigrants render meat and ship it to grocery stores, without which Americans staying at home can’t make sandwiches. Immigrants are more than a third of U.S. bakers. They are 31% of the janitors and 20% of the delivery workers at grocery stores. They are 29% of all workers in food processing. If you’re self-isolating at home now, you almost certainly ate food processed by an immigrant this very morning.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-immigration-move-233544862.html

Looks like Burlington (one of smallest full-season markets) and Clinton are gone. Cedar Rapids spared...hard to imagine the Quad Cities would be gone with that bigger population base, and an owner (Heller) with multiple teams (Wilmington, Lowell and Billings). Quad Cities fate now partially tied into the completion/readiness of new Beloit stadium (for 2021), which was supposed to commence construction this week but will be delayed indefinitely with coronavirus. Looks like the Pioneer League is in trouble for both geography reasons as well as cultural assimilation for Latin American players.

Jared Kushner, pre real estate gig? Joking. And just when I was starting to feel (a tiny bit) sorry for Azar...nah. Whiplash. Now Trump is arguing that Gov. Kemp is being too extreme about salons, barbers, tattoo and massage parlors...so protestors can now theoretically protest Trump’s attempted overriding of the governor’s disregarding of Trump’s own original Federal guidelines?? Is that like - x - = + or is it just a double negative? Doesn’t this feel like a set-up? Like a playing off of Gretchen Whitmer’s stringent guidelines in Michigan? GA deliberately selected businesses that would be provocative and are now are perceived to be “reasonably” backing off thanks to the wisdom and guidance of Trump? So GA can look more aggressive, ardently advocating to get people back to work...knowing they were going to back off all along? Alex Azar, the HHS Secretary, put his chief of staff Brian Harrison in charge of the coronavirus task force in late January 37-year-old Harrison has no medical, management or public health qualifications and was a professional labradoodle breeder He was called 'the dog breeder' by White House officials and seen as ineffective in running the task force Harrison said in a statement: 'Americans would be well served by having more government officials who have started and worked in small family businesses.' He sold his breeding business for $225,000; HHS budget is $1.3 trillion Azar started the crisis with a beard and has since shaved it off (wth?) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8247067/HHS-chief-Azar-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force.html I’m honestly not sure which decision is worse, hiring him as Chief of Staff for the HHS Chief in the first place...or this one?

If you ask experts in the fields of finance, industry, investing, and marketing, which states would file bankruptcy if given the opportunity? Look close enough, and a few states are a prime candidate for bankruptcy based on pension shortfalls and other financial obligations. These states which hold the highest in total debt and unfunded pension liabilities include Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, Kentucky, and Hawaii. Connecticut ranks number one in the nation for state with the highest debt deficit per capita. https://www.debtfreeohio.com/bankruptcy-information/bankruptcy/can-states-declare-bankruptcy/ Can certainly add New York, Rhode Island and California to the list. Of course, you also have McConnell’s home state. New Mexico, Delaware, West Virginia (GOP) and Vermont are considered higher risk as well. https://www.mercatus.org/publications/urban-economics/state-fiscal-rankings Out of the 13 states with the worst financial problems, only two GOP governors (Baker/Justice). Shocking that Moscow Mitch doesn’t want to help the areas most decimated so far, right? A full seven are in the Northeast...all states unlikely to vote for Trump in November.

Well, except the for profit and sham online universities backed by DeVos & Co. For some reason, Arizona State got over $30 million, and the Ivy League schools (all with MANY billions in endowment) getting around $45 million combined.

Texas Lt. Governor Patrick “And what I said when I was with you that night, there are more important things than living and that’s saving this country for my children and my grandchildren and saving this country for all of us,” said Patrick, who at age 70 is among the older Americans at higher risk of developing severe cases of COVID-19. “I don’t want to die, nobody wants to die, but we (have) got to take some risk and get back in the game and get this country back up and running.” As of Tuesday, the state reported over 19,400 positive coronavirus cases and 495 deaths. Patrick said the statistics indicate the country never should have been locked down. “In Texas we have 29 million people, we have lost 495," he said. “Every life is valuable, but 500 people out of 29 million and we are locked down and we are crushing the average worker, we are crushing small business, we are crushing the markets, we are crushing this country.” https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/21/texas-lt-gov-dan-patrick-praises-economic-restart-there-are-more-important-things-than-living/ https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-who-warns-2-3-percent-population-have-antibodies-2020-4 The WHO said only 2% to 3% of people tested have COVID-19 antibodies, suggesting that 'immunity passports' may not be an effective policy.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/16/can-the-world-find-a-good-covid-19-vaccine-quickly-enough The scariest thing I heard today was that if those completely blows up in Africa, it could take a decade to get under control, even with a vaccine in 18-24 months. That’s why reopening all these southern states just increases the possibility somewhere down the line that an asymptomatic super-spreader travels from the US to Africa and lights the world on fire to the point where it will come and go seasonally (on a global basis) for at least 3-5 years, if not closer to a decade. Of course, it also depends on which countries and companies succeed with the vaccine...and how philanthropic/altruistic they intend to be. Hopefully Gates Foundation has one of the successful attempts.

The challenging aspect is obvious. Let’s say something like 82 million Americans have preexisting conditions...if you keep them at home, if you keep anyone over age 55 or 60 home, you’re wiping out a huge chunk of the workforce, as well as future consumers/spenders. All smokers, for example...at least those over age 50? Recent studies are showing perhaps the biggest individual contributing factor in NY is obesity, at least 40% of deaths there and in UK as well. So everyone who is obese or even overweight by BMI is a higher risk group. How do you do this in a way that’s not going to cause “fat shaming”? They will be guidelines without force of law...but can managers/bosses decide who should stay home and who should work? What about African-American and Hispanics, experiencing higher incidences of Covid deaths....bundled together with a variety of socio-economic issues and lack of access to quality health care, or simply not having health insurance in general? Those are the ones most needing to work out of financial desperation, but most Covid-vulnerable, simultaneously. You’re pretty much left left with people from the Top 25% economically who don’t smoke, are under 40, more female than male, no pre-existing conditions, definitely no seniors....and high school/university students on the other end of the spectrum. The problem is that for the rest of the 75%, they will be at heightened risk, paying down bills/credit cards/mortgages or loans and doubly incentivized to now save finally for a rainy day fund rather than for “wants” after experiencing 2008-09 and now this calamity. It’s why a number of economists are predicting at least 9 quarters to return to 3-5% unemployment...and increased automation/redundancy through technology applications might make even that unrealistic, unless individuals just drop out of the labor pool entirely die to a combination of advanced age or alienation/discouragement.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html This is an excellent article...it’s a longer read, for sure, but definitely worth everyone’s time. 800,000 deaths, but at least he has a long-term perspective backed up with numerous plausible contributing factors. We were kind of dismissing people talking about impacts into 2021-22 as alarmist in the beginning, but we’re closer to that reality now setting in (university campuses not reopening until 2021, no NFL or NCAA football season, etc.) Harvard. The CDC report out today. Some of the more sophisticated models. The California/Orange Cty study saying thectrue numbers are 55X higher. Or this particular forecast from Dr. Osterholm. And if Dr. Birx and Dr. Hahn don’t push back harder...we’ll continue to treat hydroxychloroquinine seriously, we’ll make quips like “they’ll just have to get creative” when talking about how Georgia nail and hair salons, massage places, tattoo parlors are possibly going to practice physical distancing while still performing those particular jobs. How are movie theaters going to profitable at 20-60% of capacity...not to mention the fact that no Hollywood studios are going to mass release their delayed premieres for just a small percentage of the US and international markets, and also run the risk of those films being pirated. It just doesn’t make much sense when it’s only 3-5 states. If you start opening Atlanta, Florida and Texas...there’s going to so many court battles between major cities and the governors. Local residents are likely to trust mayors in those cities over the governor...so you’ll have 35-40% trying to reopen and the majority staying home, meaning those businesses will largely continue to flounder. I mean, we can’t even get someone to point out the obvious...that we don’t have the best testing in the world, because the per capita basis is so much more important (achieving at least 10% of population and min. 500,000 per day nationally) than the raw numbers of tests. You can’t simply compare Singapore and Iceland with Germany and the US unless you’re also looking at the positives. That we’re in the 20-25% positive range when Germany is at 7% or S. Korea at 2% is truly scary.

I know with students here in China, they have already cancelled almost all of the quite lucrative summer exchange programs that usually last 4-6 weeks, and also allow a week or two for additional travel/tourism and university campus visits. One remaining option is the Pioneer Research/Summer Mentoring program with professors across the US from the “elite” schools. It’s going to especially hurt private universities that are not in that very top tier of 30 in all the well-known rankings...but are incredibly expensive. Thinking the smaller but prestigious liberal arts schools that rely on intl. students will suffer, too (Williams, William & Mary, Oberlin, Grinnell, etc.) One of my students just turned down Bucknell for Imperial College/UCL/King’s College in UK due to pricing (double whammy with Chinese economy hard hit.) There’s going to be that “brain drain” as promising students who can’t get work (H1B)/study visas go to other “safer” destinations like Canada, Singapore, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Dubai/Abu Dhabi...as sell as staying close/r to home (NYU-Shanghai, Yale-Singapore.) With the UK and Australian markets either becoming more antagonistic with China or having their own coronavirus problems, the uncertainty has never been higher. Lots of gap year decisions, at least for one semester, as students/parents don’t want to get caught in an expensive online semester...which will be more likely with newfound concerns it will return with a vengeance during the fall flu season. On the other hand, with 10-25% of Chinese students looking elsewhere...there are more opportunities and less competition for the current junior class (2021 grads).

List of officials Trump would love to fire but can’t for various reasons Dr. Robert Redfield (just made headlines that will scare everyone) Dr. Alex Azar, HHS (sidelined) Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIH (missing since last week) Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (WHO head) Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN Fate still undetermined??? Dr. Jerome Adams (surgeon general, disappeared) Jared Kushner Dr. Peter Navarro (wrote a scary memo, created public record) ”It’s going to be gone, gone.” No, not until there’s a vaccine. Of course, with the news today about the potential fall outbreak being worse, the various Nov. election scenarios start to become really interesting, especially if there’s an attempt to delay things if it looks unfavorable...not unlike the WI vote recently. Then it’s right back to the debate about the US Post Office and mail-in ballots. Maybe by then he will know the difference between HIV and HPV...despite Bill Gates having to lecture him twice on the subject.

Fox News’ Ainsley Earhardt Questions Trump’s Immigration Ban: What About My Au Pair? https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fox-news-ainsley-earhardt-questions-154559444.html Plan? Reflected? Informed? Fox News? What is the world coming to...? Earhardt, recently divorced and a now operating as a single mom, reflected on how the immigration ban could affect farmers in America on work visas, then said, “Many families here — including mine — we have au pairs and we rely on them. I go to work at 3 o’clock in the morning so I need her there and I need her in my house so that she can help me with my daughter.” The mother of four-year-old Hayden continued her critique of the president’s vague plan, saying, “Many families rely on child care from other countries. These au pairs come here on work visas. They have to go back to their country to get the visas renewed and we’ve been talking in my house about how that’s gonna happen. So these are all things — these are questions that we have that hopefully the president will roll out a plan and we’ll all be in informed on all of this is going to affect all of our lives.”

Hope someone sees the irony of Guatemalans being attacked in their native country for having returned from the the US, which experienced roughly 1,400ish more Covid-19 deaths than any country in the world yesterday. Not exactly a safe haven. They might need to eventually block the border on the Mexican side to prevent immigrants from Texas, AZ, NM and California from fleeing south like in that incomparable CGI movie, 2012. Guatemala President Alejandro Giammattei denounced several reported attacks on people returning to Guatemala from overseas, particularly those arriving from the United States. During a government news conference Sunday, Giammattei asked Guatemalans to treat these people not as "criminals" but rather as "brothers." Giammattei mentioned a case reported on Saturday, in the municipality of Santa Catarina Palopó, where people "tried to attack the mayor, his family and a person who had returned to his home." The person who returned from abroad had attained the proper paperwork demonstrating they had tested negative for coronavirus and had followed all necessary quarantine measures, Giammattei said. cnn.com Blomberg said the protesters' demands are shortsighted because the virus is still spreading unabated. "If you're in a hospital bed, you're not making any money anyway. In fact, you're putting yourself in further debt," Blomberg told CNN. "If you're dead, it doesn't matter anyway -- you're not going to be able to provide for your family. You're going to have your medical bills, your funeral costs, you're going to be leaving that for them on top of it all."

I’ve had great “ratings” my whole life, there’s nothing unusual about that for me. The White House News Conference ratings are “through the roof”(Monday Night Football, Bachelor Finale , @nytimes) but I don’t care about that. I care about going around the Fake News to the PEOPLE! It is amazing that I became President of the United States with such a totally corrupt and dishonest Lamestream Media going after me all day, and all night. Either I’m really good, far better than the Fake News wants to admit, or they don’t have nearly the power as once thought! 96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you! This must also mean that, most importantly, we are doing a good (great) job in the handling of the Pandemic. It’s nice to know he has nothing better to do than watch Morning Joe at 6 a.m. and vent on Twitter. Congratulating yourself when there’s a 9/11, Pearl Harbor or Civil War battle’s worth of American deaths sticking out daily, like a sore thumb in the midst of our previously shared sacrifice. I’m starting to think Governor Kemp might be even more oblivious to the steadily rising numbers in his own state and a frightening cluster in Albany, not to mention not even consulting with the Atlanta and Savannah mayors. To even think of putting a reality t.v. show like The Bachelor in the same sentence with the worst global crisis in 75 years pretty much says it all. Despite those approval numbers (not sure where they came from, probably Fox News), 59% of Republicans also argue that opening up the country before mid-May in most states is premature. But, hey, at least we’re stopping all those violence-prone Mexicans and Central Americans from bringing that invisible plague into our great country! Our new press secretary already making us proud!