caulfield12

Or at least put him together with Trout, Ohtani and Pujols... The problem with this theory is that GSW is must-watch NBA TV, and the Lakers have LeBron and could add Davis, so he simply can’t be on a boring team that’s not in contention. The Padres will get there eventually, but they will always be outgunned financially by the Dodgers and Giants.

The only way this happens is an opt out after just 2-3 years that Philly won’t meet. The Padres don’t even want him long term, they just want the buzz of marketing and to reinject belief in the long-suffering fanbase...which they would then use (freed up cash flow) to sign all their youngsters to extensions. Still don’t see how it’s possible with Hosmer, Myers and $27.5 million still on the books in bad money. Think of the Padres like the 2012 Marlins, trying to make a temporary splash...

If they don’t get Machado or Harper, especially after the second player signs...it would be better just to shut down SoxTalk for a week. It’s going from more a sense of excitement to what can be described now as a mix of fear/trepidation and just a sense of relief it all worked out in the end, but then it will convert into maybe it wasn’t the greatest idea in history if he puts up a sub 800 ops and the clubhouse chemistry is a mess with veterans and youngsters forming two cliques. (That’s also pretty difficult to imagine, as bad as KC, Detroit and Minnesota are in the pitching department...well, the Twins are “okay,” but the overall point still remains.)

Which is why it’s hard to argue how much free cash flow the team is actually generating. What are the terms in years and interest rates for all those loans? One would imagine an ownership group is going to be more likely to prioritize paying down debt...it’s exactly what the Padres are doing, but that’s eating into 10% of their potential spending (including stadium improvements and renovations the Sox don’t have to worry about.) What is the net positive of adding another $300 million contract to Harper? How much more can they earn with him...but what happens if he joins the list of bad contracts at the exact time you’re trying to extend your contention window and “fix” the starting rotation and bullpen? For one thing, it guarantees that you won’t be able to keep Baez AND Bryant, if that was ever a realistic possibility in the first place...not to mention Contreras and Rizzo, along with Hendricks and Quintana. Signing Harper would force Heyward into CF, and/or a trade of Almora/Happ. That doesn’t make much sense either. And it would cause Boras to lose one of his biggest bidders for another of his clients in Bryant, which isn’t ideal.

We’ve gotten zero information about the new rights deal, other than it’s an extension just for five years, 2020-2024. I’m willing to bet that there’s a clause in there that increases it should the Sox sign Machado or Harper. The reason is logic. Why would the White Sox accept a much lower deal that they had no reason to commit to before the end of the 2019 season unless they were fairly confident in getting one of those two? It’s not like their position would appreciably change if they failed to sign him, because losing the Cubs, the station still needs to offer April though September live sports programming. The fact of the matter is that something like 90%+ of teams over the last twenty years who had Baseball America farm systems ranked #1-5 made the playoffs at least once in the following 3-5 years. That’s a compelling reason alone that argues for a better future return for the network in terms of ratings. https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-are-perfect-for-harper-or-machado/c-302543664 Richard Justice already argued this articulately, if not inspirationally...

Haven’t all the recent speculation/s since the legalized sports gambling bill passed put it at closer to the $2.0-2.1 billion range? As far as the Cubs go, unless they’re suddenly in the vicinity of $200 million per season just for their regional broadcasting rights, it’s a no go...and that Dodgers’ deal is currently weighing down the big market deals because they overpaid by so much that it has become a disaster for both sides (because an entire generation of fans will have been blocked out for 20 years). It’s not like Harper is going to move the needle more than 10-15%. With the White Sox or Padres, the positive (immediate) return is going to be closer to 50% if not higher...tv ratings, attendance, ad rates, more promotional events/giveaways leading to high attendance and more tickets sold, etc. The Cubs objectively just don’t have much room to grow compared to the position the White Sox are in. If we’re going to argue that cash flow from the development around the ballpark is raking in hundreds of millions in free cash flow that can be reallocated to Harper instead of debt payments, sure...anything is possible. But ownership groups tend to be more risk averse than individual owners, and Heyward/Darvish/Chatwood are hard to overlook, as well as another diminished asset in Addison Russell they haven’t quite figured out what to do with.

It won’t matter in the end because Manny will invariably say his comfort level with all those guys like Castillo, Nova, Colome and Herrera was a big reason he felt more comfortable joining the Sox.

It’s amazing how when you focus on seeing a possible solution that fits that your mind locks in and simply overlooks the two E problem.

I think a really good case could be made for Santana pre-injury, it simply depends on the medical staff’s evaluation. If he hadn’t gotten injured, he’d be getting at least another $50-60 million from someone on his last big contract. Now he’s stuck in a year to year situation, unless he can prove his durability again. So do you want to go with Santana/Buchholz (combined) or Gio, you could at least argue those two scenarios. With Balta’s point, keeping Castillo and bringing in Colome seem to be at least 50% Machado recruitment related. If we don’t get him and Narvaez has another good offensive season (unlikely in Safeco), we will still probably regret it, in the same way Tyler Flowers has gone on to be a meaningful contributor to a rising Braves’ team.

World Series should be the answer for the crossword, lol...

The Cubs, but coming out of 2016...now it’s pretty close to even (if if if the Sox sign Machado or Harper), but I’m referring more to which team is better positioned for the future compared to something subjective or fuzzier than which franchise has the most fans or popularity or media coverage. There’s a dent in the Cubs’ armor right now, and the Theo/Cubs’ Way myth isn’t what it was at the end of 2016. The Cubs still have 2-3 years left to ride that wave, but it’s looking like the projected Cubs’ dynasty is far from a foregone conclusion. The Madden Magic has faded as well. It’s always easier to win that first time than to repeat, because the motivation isn’t going to be quite the same, everyone gets distracted by things off the field, pitchers get worn down, the media starts to become a bit more critical because the fans become increasingly demanding when prices go so high. We’ll see how many fans have the appetite to pay $5 extra per month for the Marquis channel or whatever they’re currently calling it...

Bartolo Colon, Ervin Santana, Edwin Jackson, Yovanni Gallardo, Gio, Jason Hammel, Liriano, Fister...those are the type of names you’re looking at in terms of durability. Scant pickings. But guys like Edwin, Anibal Sanchez and even Edinson Volquez are still in demand, by someone at least. Interestingly, Sale is now 31st on the active innings pitched leaders, Quintana 38th. Shields was 6th. In the top 13 you have Sabathia and Verlander that are shoo-ins for the HoF. Scherzer’s closer and closer. Kershaw, of course. Then you have Greinke, Felix Hernandez (fading), Lester, Wainright and Price with work still left to do.

At least we had the two huge trades in that cycle...this might be worse than the Keppinger Offseason if they don’t get either Machado or Harper. That was also one case where we “lost the offseason” and it didn’t turn out any better in the regular season.

“The Harper and Machado contracts will finally happen, and they will be crazy complicated. This winter, I really didn't want to be that guy who makes a prediction (read: educated, but ultimately a blind guess) in November and then altered it as we got a better read on the market. I wanted to stick to my guns (read: I didn't mind looking really dumb), and that meant maintaining my stance that Machado would sign with the Yankees and Harper would wind up with the Cardinals. At this point, neither club looks especially eager or likely to back me up on this. But rather than humbly pivoting to alternative predictions (read: a little more educated, but still basically blind guesses) that are somehow only going to make me look dumber, I'll just say this: The mega-contract, as we once knew it, is effectively gone. Machado and Harper will be proof that it has been replaced with a different sort of deal that has Ben Zobrist-like versatility. We saw the seeds of this with Arrieta's Phillies deal, which was three years and $75 million, but with a player opt-out after 2019 or a team opt-in that voids that opt-out and tacks on two more years beyond 2020. Boras negotiated that deal and similarly strange opt-out/opt-in structures this winter in the Yusei Kikuchi contract with the Mariners and the Zach Britton deal with the Yankees. It stands to reason that the Boras-negotiated Harper deal will also involve this creative clause, but with much higher dollars and much more significant stakes for player and team. I think Harper's contract will have a range that lasts anywhere from two to 12 years, with various opt-out possibilities in between. Teams don't want to totally commit to a player -- even a 26-year-old player -- for a decade-plus, and you have to wonder if a player like Harper might want a deal that gives him an opportunity to potentially reinvestigate his market after the next Collective Bargaining Agreement (post-2021). Given these market conditions, it only stands to reason that Machado's contract with the Padres will be comparable in complexity to Harper's deal with the Phillies. (Oops.)” Anthony Castrovince Mlb.com

Watching Michigan/Iowa...

Then the small market teams losing guys like Lindor after just 5 or 6 years would give up hope. It would go against the idea of investing time and energy in following the prospects during a rebuild if you were just going to lose them. There needs to be something like a franchise player tag or max contract or whatever to give those teams a shot. Perhaps the current freeze is giving those guys like Jiminez and Vladimir Jr. an incentive to sign a huge long term deal before they ever set foot on a MLB field...buying out a year or two of free agency.

The Wedding Singer...for some reason, thought Lovitz had died, but he’s just 61. Steve Buscemi and the Dead or Alive singer doing You Spin Me Round over and over again, maybe my favorite was Sandler’s sidekick, the limo driver and his string of innuendoes that would never fly today. Good first date movie.

You can’t say Harper is unlucky if he keeps pulling balls into the shift...unless he has an extremely fluke percentages of line drives and hard hit balls getting stopped. That still is scouting/positioning just as much as bad luck.

They also blew away the record for spending on Latin American talent in one cycle...and got one of the best catching prospects in baseball from the Indians in Mejia.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/harper-machado-unsigned-luxury-tax

Harper’s 2018 Inside Edge stats account for all 285 putouts he made in the outfield. He flubbed two of 275 plays considered routine, certainly plays he’d like to have back but nothing to indicate egregious defensive shortcomings. He converted none of six opportunities to make “remote” plays, but Harper has never made a play considered remote by Inside Edge in his entire career — those are reserved for top-end sprinters like Billy Hamilton or guys with the freakishly good instincts and reaction time of Mookie Betts. If Harper has never made plays like that in the past, he’s unlikely to start doing so with any regularity now, and they’re not enough to make or break him as a defender. Mike Trout has above-average range for a center fielder but has converted only two of 46 remote opportunities since 2014. Taking out the impossible, the remote and the routine plays leaves only 25 batted balls that tested Harper’s defensive limits in 2018. He made 12 of them, going 1-for-6 on unlikely plays, 1-for-4 on even plays, and 10-for-15 on likely (but not routine) plays. If he could’ve caught all of four more fly balls over the course of the entire season, the figures tracking his range would look a lot different. Again: He did not do that, so his defensive stats look bad. But unless your eyeballs are biased by too much time looking at in-season defensive metrics, Harper just does not look the part of an albatross defender. By sprint speed — which measures players on the basepaths, not in the outfield — Harper still moves just as well as he did from 2015-2017, when he graded out as a slightly above average defensive right fielder. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/11/bryce-harper-defense-uzr-drs-mlb-free-agency-2018

It’s pretty obvious that marketing/ticket/souvenir sales and national name recognition comes as part of the value-added Harper proposition. Whether it’s actually worth $50-75 million more (especially with the tv deal already locked in for 2020-24) is the question, because Sox fans are even more desperate for a legit winning team than one individual superstar, even if it is a position player (as opposed to Sale).

Except for the fact that Jimenez, Robert and Adolfo/Basabe (If you really squint) could potentially be 4 fWAR corner outfielders and the best we could project at 3B are currently Yolmer, Moncada or the ghost of Jake Burger.

But nobody in baseball is concerned that Harper would just “phone it in” with a huge guaranteed deal. The best thing for the White Sox might be that Machado plays so well he opts out after four years when we need to reallocate that money for the young core players to sign extensions (this is where the Cubs are, essentially, choosing between Baez/Bryant.)

So let's begin with that: If I'm running a team, I'd love to have either player as a foundation piece. There are 45 players in big league history to have generated at least 580 runs created through their age-25 season. That's Machado's career total, which happens to be seven more than Stan Musial at the same age. Harper has created 682 runs, which ranks 22nd on the 25-and-under leaderboard. He's ahead of players like Shoeless Joe Jackson, Rogers Hornsby, Tris Speaker and Lou Gehrig. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25216980/mlb-choosing-bryce-harper-manny-machado