caulfield12

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html Trump expected to win (barely) in 2020, Biden way ahead for Dems (33% to 13% for Sanders, Harris 3rd), Bloomberg only 4%, same as O’Rourke The fierce battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh hasn’t turned into an electoral advantage for Republicans so far, according to a CNN poll that found Democrats with a large lead headed into November midterm elections. In a generic ballot matchup, likely voters favored the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress 54 percent to 41 percent over the GOP candidate, according to the poll. That’s little changed from September, when the same poll found 52 percent of voters favored Democratic candidates for Congress. Democrats have a 30-point lead with women voters, 63 percent to 33 percent, the poll found. Men favor Democrats by only about 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. The survey was conducted by telephone Oct. 4-7 and had a 3.8 percent margin of error.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-donald-trump-likely-win-204941807.html why Trump will likely win a second term...hint, it’s the current structure of the Electoral College The three groups that most heavily support Democratic candidates — blacks (88 percent for Clinton in 2016), Hispanics (66 percent for Clinton) and Asians (65 percent for Clinton) — now find themselves disproportionately living in densely populated states whose electoral votes are undervalued compared to those rural, less-populated states. As Graph 2 shows, in the 2016 election, Wyoming — where 84 percent of the population is white ― had one electoral vote for every 187,875 residents. California — where 62 percent of the population are minorities ― had one electoral vote for every 677,344 residents. So if a person moved from Wyoming to California, their vote would lose nearly 66 percent of its value in presidential elections. Population per Electoral Vote View photos More The Electoral College was designed to buttress the power of white rural voters, and true to that purpose, it continues to suppress the power of minority voters today. Critics may argue that Hillary Clinton lost because she failed to round up as many voters in 2016 as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. But Clinton didn’t so much lose the national election as she failed to win enough support in several states stacked with white voters. Clinton handily won California (62 percent minority) and New York (43.5 percent minority), barely lost Florida (42.2 percent minority), and racked up more votes in Texas (56.5 percent minority) than Obama had. Together, these four states account for 33 percent of the nation’s population and an increasingly larger percentage of the nation’s minorities. However, Clinton lost traction in Michigan (75 percent white), Pennsylvania (78 percent white), Ohio (80 percent white) and Wisconsin (82 percent white), and as a result, she lost the election. What this all adds up to is a rather unpopular but quite sound prediction: Donald Trump is likely to win a second term.

#4 is exactly why Mnuchin or Countrywide/Mozilo was never prosecuted in 2009/10. Because our country has legalized fraud, such as parking immense amounts of corporate and individual profits offshore in tax havens like the Caymans, Panama, Switzerland. Why is our Treasury currently running a trillion dollar deficit when corporate profits have never been higher? Whereas the upper middle class guy with an income of $75K who gets audited and can’t afford to fight the IRS indefinitely with an army of lawyers gets screwed. While it might not be fraud because a lobbyist or Congressperson in their pockets created a loophole big enough to get Refrigerator Perry through...it’s shady/unethical (not in the best interests of MOST Americans), representing the utter lack of morals and values that are ubiquitous across corporate America these days, and with the Kavanaugh appointment, not even ultimately challengeable through our court system. The 1% never really suffers, no matter what moral harms or hazards they bring down on everyone else. Right now, someone in the Madoff, Kushner and Manafort families are still living the life of Riley on the backs of those they’ve screwed over or cheated. When they do get caught, they settle outside of court and only 20-30% of the real victims are made whole, like those owning Kushner apartments in NYC and NJ who had their rents raised based on fraudulent information and were illegally convicted, or those who believed that Trump University could make the rich (or 85% of the people who have ever worked for Trump), too. Obama, Schumer and Frank are just as guilty as anyone of letting all those white collar criminals get off with light raps on the wrist.

The problem with this is you’re crafting an inspirational “feel good” backstory (it could as easily be Obama or Ocasio-Cortez)...but I don’t hear any new ideas. Just fighting for or protecting, rather than something new or innovative that improves lives. It’s like a rear guard action, it might be good enough for 2018 but it’s not the kind of argument that will convince people to vote for a Dem at the top of the ticket in 2020. Or let’s just call it the search for “authenticity” that Ocasio-Cortez, Connor Lamb and O’Rourke started https://www.yahoo.com/news/authenticity-now-attribute-craved-national-democrats-162902736--election.html

Maybe Americans really don’t want freedom of speech and actually prefer an authoritarian strongman making these decisions for them. With the way our country is divided now, neither side really has an advantage. Even if the MSM and Silicon Valley was controlled by the left (and there’s talk radio, Fox, Limbaugh, Breitbart, Alex Jones, Q Anon and the leaders in the majority of small and mid-sized cities as well as 90% of rural areas to disabuse one of that notion...or Peter Thiel), the fact of the matter is the Right controls the Supreme Court, the Senate, the House, most governorships, state legislatures and city councils/school boards. Not enough? Citizens United, the Koch Brothers, the majority of non-tech mainstream corporations and investment banks are actually quite conservative. You write as if 1984, Brave New World or Animal Farm dystopia is right around the corner. It’s not. If anything, there’s more of a threat to the Left than to the Right, especially if the Republicans can slow down or at least curb immigration flows. This doesn’t even take into account gerrymandering, Jim Crow 2018 Version 2.0 Enhanced across the South, Native Americans being disenfranchised, State Legislatures interfering in elections, etc. (Maybe it is the end of the world. Iowa State is suddenly the best college football team in America!)

Maybe it would simply be easier to trade for one of the Dodgers 7-8 outfielders, lol. Bellinger, Taylor, Peterson, Kemp, Puig, Kiki Hernandez (if/of), Alex Verdugo or even Toles. Bellinger’s not going anywhere and Puig’s in his walk year next season, but TRY something better than forcing Palka/Delmonico/Cordell/Engel into those spots.

Well, we know MLB desperately wants to see the Dodgers/Red Sox (30 year anniversary of Gibson homer off Eck) or a rematch of last season, which would also be quite unique.

Three soft hits and a blown strike three call against Barnes. Just another example of how fortunate the 2005 White Sox were to have almost every break go their way. The margin of error against a team with as much talent as the Dodgers have is razor thin. At any rate, Jansen has almost lost the closer’s spot at this point, far from over.

And they still have the lead...Woodruff, by the way, is an excellent hitting pitcher. That was no fluke. When Kershaw’s only at 89-92, anything is possible. And can we have ONE outfielder with better overall skills than the Dodgers’ top 6-7 at that position? Too much to ask? It BETTER be Jimenez.

At least we can debate signing Moustakas again all offseason...Shaw has three more years of arbitration on his deal. (Might as well send them Yolmer or Leury to complete their bench.)

If Arcia can play like this consistently and Woodruff becomes a solid middle of the rotation guy, the Cubs are pretty much going to have to go out and add Machado or Harper because counting on Darvish right now would be a fool’s errand.

Okay, counter the 1-0 lead against one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. The story remains that the Woodruff homer off Kershaw is going to be seen as the defining moment of the series if the Brewers go on to win it. As mentioned, they just have that unbeatable roll vibe going on right now. What will be fascinating is to see if they can maintain it while awaiting the Red Sox/Astros winner, which everyone projects to go 6-7 games. And I still believe today’s game will be tough to win as Jeffress (especially) and Knebel have been human in recent weeks.

I don’t think many agents would take that deal...they’d rather just cut a one year deal and go back into the market. It’s like saying he would only expect to earn $7-10 million combined (2020/21) in what should be his two career years at 27-29 because his arbitration salary would be $7-8 (this year alone), right? Just feels like it would create some bad will...if you believe in the player, you have to make a commitment, like they did with Tim Anderson. In my memory, we have never had a player take a significant pay cut in their prime years and stick with the organization. It’s one of those “theoretically possible” situations, just feels unlikely.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/13/politics/white-house-ninth-circuit-judges/index.html Trump declares war on 9th District...courts become increasingly politicized. Trump said he was not trying to push China into an economic depression. "No, no, although they're down 32% in four months, which is 1929," the President said. He added, "I don't want that. ... I want them to negotiate a fair deal with us. I want them to open their markets like ... our markets are open." My note: Trump’s basically an idiot. Only 8-10% of Chinese are invested in the markets here, and, even then, it’s mostly government ownership as opposed to individuals. The stock markets are not perceived as a key economic indicator like in the US.

But that Woodruff homer also knocked Kershaw completely off his game, along with Grandal falling apart. It was super-important for the underdog Brewers to score first and get the momentum on their side against the best pitcher in baseball. It’s going to be easy to second guess if they lose a tight one today because they don’t have Hader available, but it was an understandable/calculated risk, especially because you don’t want to start off 0-1 at home. While there’s pressure on Miley to go deeper today (not his forte), there’s also added pressure on Ryu to win for LA, and while he was really good this season, the playoffs are a completely different animal, and he’s buckled before in the postseason. you can also go to Gonzalez out of the pen, potentially.

Right. Should the Trump administration be able to regulate Nike for initiating a Kapaernick camapign...or punish American companies for relocating their supply chains to SE Asia to save money for consumers and improve the bottom line in terms of profitability? To close down Papa John’s for “unfairly” pushing out their founder? if what they’re doing is based on what’s best for the company’s yearly results...why would that be any different than a chemical company deliberately polluting (and paying a lessened fine due to lowered regulations) because paying the fine would be a lot cheaper than retrofitting or building new factories? What possible entity is currently non-politicized within the government enough to capably and objectively assess situations like the OP raised? It’s a free country. Entities that want to gather have every right to construct their own platforms. It would be like SoxTalk banning all those with “rightist” views and even moderates/centrists to create a community of like minded, liberal Sox fans. Doing that would actually lower participation and discussion, right? Well, the result would be something like WSI, dictatorship run amok. Which is why other Sox-related sites filled the void...there’s no reasons those offended groups and individuals can’t go out and do their own thing. At a certain point, if Twitter, FB, etc., becomes too heavy-handed or regulated in terms of what can be discussed, their customers will abandon them , too. Survival of the fittest. A decade ago, MySpace. The next year, it will be Snap or FB that falls out of fashion if they can’t provide what their customers want (and invade their privacy to mine data while projecting the image of a useful and even community-strengthening “free” service). Someone needs to go back and read their Ayn Rand trilogy.

Did someone hijack your account?

Dodgers bloodied up the Sox part of the pen...Jeffress has definitely been shaky in the playoffs, but, then again, Jansen isn’t the same pitcher, either. LA still in a good position to pick up Game 2, psychologically. Hader is the one unique weapon in the postseason no team seems to have a counter for.

More high-quality GOP candidates. https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-candidate-threatens-pa-governor-im-going-stomp-face-golf-spikes-203326572.html

So much for the idea of Grandal being a defensive stabilizer for the Sox.

How much of the Obama $10 trillion was directly related to cleaning up Bush’s debacle? Half? What should Obama have done differently that wouldn’t have added to the deficit but still would have ameliorated all the overhanging problems? If we had followed the Romney plan of letting all the automakers fail and be acquired as distressed assets (like his Bain & Co. does) where would we be now? And the biggest BS is Trump running up $3-4 trillion in additional debt when the economy is supposedly humming along...the deficits should be closing, like they did in the late 90’s under Clinton with higher capital gains taxes, lower estate level taxes, higher corporate taxes and the truly rich in this country like Bezos paying a “fairer” share. It’s almost like Trump wants to bankrupt the country, then magically print $25 additional trillion under the cover of night and “pay it all off at once.”

If you add in the Iowa caucuses, NH primary, South Carolina, etc., yet more small states choosing our presidential candidates before larger states even have an opportunity to register an opinion.

No different from Koch Brothers and their presence in mostly conservative/red states...whose electoral votes overvalue their much smaller populations.

This doesn’t account for a potential 20%+ correction in the stock market in October...that pushes AZ and NV to the Dems, maybe even TN or TX flip. Florida goes to Nelson for sure. The only one who seems truly doomed right now is Heitkamp.

Nope, Avi...because holding onto Abreu for two more years is even more dubious.