caulfield12

A shutout against the Royals isn't happening. They have too many good fastball hitters. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_...3926/bruce-chen AJ and Juan Pierre have hit really well against Chen. If you look at the splits, they'll tell the numbers against RHB and LHB aren't very different at all. Here's a suggested line-up. Pierre Morel (because he is our best #2 guy going forward) Konerko Quentin AJ Ramirez Rios (4 for 25 against Chen but hot as of late) Lillibridge (for Beckham at 2B) DeAza (for Dunn/DH) Beckham is 1 for 10 against Chen. Beckham can't hit a fastball on the outside half or up, and it seems all he will do is pull every outside pitch on the ground to the 3B or SS if he does actually make contact. At least this way you get Dunn/Beckham out of the line-up and a lot more pop and athleticism from the bottom of the order. DeAza has hit lefties well in AAA this year, so not worried about that, and Chen hasn't had great success against LHB's this year either.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Papelbon By Dan Mennella [August 11 at 10:08pm CST] In an upcoming class of free agents flush with solid closers, Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon will arguably be the grand prize. Papelbon, 31 in November, is still in his prime and on track for his sixth consecutive campaign of at least 35 saves in as many seasons as Boston's closer. He didn't merely compile those saves by virtue of simply holding the job; the 2.33 career ERA and 2.68 FIP are befitting a stud closer. This season, in particular, has been an important one for Papelbon on the heels of a tumultuous 2010. He's posted a 3.14 ERA and 26 saves to date, but if you dig deeper, the advanced estimators like him more than that, enough for a 2.37 xFIP and 1.62 SIERA. If the end-of-season numbers are closer to those figures, Paps will hit the open market on quite the high note. Papelbon avoided arbitration last offseason for a $12MM salary in 2011, and I'd guess he won't want to take a cut in annual salary (I know, going out on a limb there). And considering three-year deals were handed out like so many Jolly Ranchers to setup men such as Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs last winter, he'd be silly not to seek a pact of at least that length. The tricky part is that his most obvious suitor, or perhaps the one that seems the likeliest, is his current team, the Red Sox, and they have plenty of bargaining leverage. Setup man Daniel Bard has emerged as one of the game's elite relievers the past couple years, and Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez threaten to dent the market for Papelbon, as do older guys like Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan (MN wants him but not Capps back, but will buy out deal and renegotiate for 1-2 year contract with lots of incentives), Brad Lidge and Jose Valverde (no way he leaves), whose respective teams hold club options for 2012. Bargaining is a ways off yet, but a couple of experts have shared interesting and differing takes recently. One NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he wouldn't break up the formidable late-innings duo of Bard and Papelbon, and that he thinks Boston will buck up when it comes down to it. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons said last month that if Papelbon is seeking something like three years and $36MM, the Sox will likely allow him to walk. I think the terms mentioned by Gammons are probably the magic numbers for Papelbon. Consider, for example, that Mariano Rivera will have earned $15MM for five consecutive years from 2008-12 (on three- and two-year contracts), and $36MM for three doesn't seem so unreasonable. Of course, that's a dicey comparison because of Mo's greatness, his inextricable ties to the Yankees organization and so on. But there are parallels. Is Paps the Red Sox's Rivera? More pointedly, will the sides proceed in contract dealings the way the Yanks and Rivera have -- knowing that they need each other? My bet is, "yes." If he doesn't end up staying with Boston, what teams would/could realistically go after him?

I'm sure the argument will be that they should have replaced Dunn when Viciedo was hot (at least against LHP) and then rotating in with the outfielders as well....and brought up DeAza to light a fire under Rios much earlier...then the season could/would have been saved.

Jays Unlikely To Sign First Rounder Beede? By Dan Mennella [August 11 at 8:22pm CST] It's "nearly certain" that the Blue Jays will not sign first rounder Tyler Beede, a right-handed high school pitcher out of Massachussets and the 21st overall pick, who will instead honor his commitment to Vanderbilt, a source tells Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Beede was expected to be a tough sign, according to Mayo, and was considered an aggressive selection at No. 21 overall. If the Jays do not sign Beede, he would not be eligible for the draft again till 2014, and Toronto would receive a compensation selection in next year's draft, the 22nd overall pick. A source tells Jim Callis of Baseball America that the situation is "not that dire" (Twitter link), while Keith Law of ESPN.com wonders (via Twitter) whether this is a ploy by Toronto to thwart an MLB investigation, as the Jays were suspected of having an illegal pre-draft agreement in place with Beede.

Mitchell and Thompson are XB-hitting machines who are both hitting .232 on the button and striking out way too much. YIKES. Is it too late to get back on the Silverio bandwagon?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 11:45 PM) I'll trust you guys who know our prospects the best. Does Sale have 3-4 good, effective pitches? If so, he's a starter, right? If he only has two, he's a reliever. Then Stewart's in a lot of trouble, he only consistently throws 2 pitches. If they're Contreras or Verlander type stuff, you can get away with it. And Sale's slider is good enough with that fastball because of the speed differential. Still, he does need to add a 3rd pitch he can throw 10-15% of the time...that could make him truly special as a starter, if his arm/shoulder/elbow and mechanics hold up with that bean-pole frame over a 162 game season. Of course, a lot of people doubted Gio Gonzalez had the ability to be a starter when we drafted it and POOF!, look how far he came from draft day to now.

The Sox record in one run games, the Sox record in extra innings (5-10), and being well below .500 at home. Those are three categories you always look at (besides team ERA/WHIP and quality starts) for playoff-caliber teams. Those three things alone have told White Sox fans to be and remain skeptical. To get to the playoffs in the face of all those negatives working against them would be one of the biggest statistical anomalies or outliers in the history of the game. Not hyperbole.

But you can always play this game. Last year it was Kotsay/Jones instead of Thome. This year, it's Dunn over Victor Martinez. Or not having a 5th starter in 2003. Imagine they didn't have Humber, Santos and Konerko played more like you would expect someone his age (say, Vladimir Guerrero) to play? We'd be 20 games under .500, possibly below the Royals with this offense, even with a replacement level DH. Beckham, Rios, Pierre for the first 2 1/2 months, Morel....there have beeen a LOT more issues, Dunn is just the most convenient target.

It would be really sad if we didn't have more than 25,000 tomorrow night in attendance...then again, we've already lost to Chen twice. But you'd think there would be SOME excitement about seeing Stewart pitch his first game in front of the home fans.

Whose WS record did he break with the 18 consecutive starts with 3 or less runs? Grab some bench, Dunn. Lillibridge will be starting for you tmrw night against Chen. Gordon, you're about a week away from being benched. Morel...that's what we have been waiting for all season. Alexei, your best at-bat tonight wasn't the homer, it was the single to RF. AJ continues to be the most professional hitter on the team, along with Paulie. Rios, you're hitting a lot of line drives that aren't falling in, but that doesn't mean you don't have to move the runner over to 3rd with less than 2 outs. We failed in that situation 2 or 3 times tonight, actually.

I could see the final mark being 8 games over, but anything below 85-77, just not buying it at all.

QUOTE (elgonzo4sox @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 04:43 PM) Our #2 hitter wasn't our big problem last night - our #7 hitter was. Omar was 1 for 5, with one productive out (advancing Pierre to 3rd to help score the first run) that was also his only LOB. He advanced Pierre to 3rd again in the 7th to keep the rally going, but then PK grounded out again, this time for the third out of the inning. Meanwhile our #7 hitter was 0 for 4, left 5 on base including two in the 8th, and was the only hitter in the lineup not to reach 1B safely all game. One hitter in the line-up isn't the reason you win or lose the game. thanks, Chris Rongey

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 03:32 PM) So who plays SS if ARAM2 needs a break? Omar is decent can you really sit there and deny that? Lillibridge. Just won't happen with Ozzie as manager and Omar on the roster. Look at how many games Brent has played there in his career. A lot more than the outfield.

Kate Upton is a better promotional draw for the White Sox going forward than Dunn, Rios or Beckham. Unfortunately. I just talked to one of my best friends who is almost as big a White Sox fan as I am (lives in Jackson, MI) and he hasn't watched or listened to a game in months. Seems like there are a lot of cases like that after the last 3 seasons.

Greg, it's SOP. If they were swept by the Twins, then you wouldn't have seen them go out. In that sense, the marketing department got lucky. It's also very fortunate they will have this early barometer of what's likely to happen in the offseason. If they only get a 25-35% return, they will have official confirmation they're in serious trouble for 2012 without a White Sox playoff team. Even with the playoffs, they could lose 5-10% with the economy going backwards again. To lose 15% of your retirement savings, POOF!, like that....season ticket renewals and cable/satellite tv will get crossed off the high priority list.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 01:39 PM) Thank goodness no Omar. Dunn is hitting where he should (I mean if he has to play at all). Too bad Ozzie won't bench Rios and play DeAza. Sad. Greg, you're six days too late with the Rios comment. Although it sure would be nice if he knew how to bunt...not that Dunn or Beckham would have driven the runs in during the 8th.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 11:05 AM) 'Byrnes was fired, Kevin Towers is the GM. But BYRNES SHOULD WIN, for putting that team in place. Without the Haren deal, they're running away with it.

This is only a 3 game series, DET @ CLE, I think. Unfortunate for CLE with how many games (12) they've beaten the Tigers in a row now. It has to be in their heads a bit. Immovable force (Verlander) meets immovable object (the CLE home record)....we'll see which one gives tonight.

Well, Rowand wasn't too bad, either. He ended up making a lot more money than Joe, that's for sure.

Same thing that happened to Arrieta and most of their pitching propects. Remember Mazzone's reputation? He didn't have much luck fixing any of them, did he? Bedard was about the only good hurler they had. Which team is the Angry Birds? Cardinals after this week?

The Angels have Wells, Bourjos and Hunter. No space for Trout if they're fighting for the division, same as the usual White Sox problem with prospects. Of course, you can argue they never ever should have acquired Wells, that was obviously dumb. The only player he can beat out is Bourjos now, or wait one year for Hunter to leave after 2012.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 11, 2011 -> 11:11 AM) Kipnis, Ackley, Lawrie, Jennings, etc. Young position talent sprouting up everywhere. We don't do that. Trout mysteriously disappeared from your list. Got to stick it out with him. 43 ab's is nothing.

Indians GM wins Executive of the Year running away if they manage to take the division. Still probably will win, like Hart did in 2005 despite the Sox winning it all. Or the guy in Arizona, Byrnes.

Done. 800 shares of VOD (ADR) at 25 1/2. Crosses fingers. Well, the dividend alone and holding long-term is worth it, unless everything completely goes south, and then it won't matter what stocks you're holding. We do have some gold, but I don't get all crazy and buy gold bars or make house into mini-Ft. Knox when the market corrects like this.

Except Jeff Keppinger's not exactly going to get us over the top. He can take Vizquel's spot and save us some money for 2012. That's about it.