caulfield12

Yeah, what's our best news of the week/s here exactly? Eider Torres playing so well in Winter Ball that he might put himself on the radar screen for a utility position, potentially fighting it out with Getz and Lillibridge? Or Taveras and Cabrera signing with teams other than the White Sox? White Sox also apparently not kicking the tires on Randy Johnson or Brad Penny? What's next? An under-the-radar Pettitte or Mussina signing for $10 million (2009 season only) to shock us all?

The only thing we can say is that unless we knew if Marquez was 100% healthy or not last year, it's hard to use that one particular season against him, just like Lillibridge. If they were healthy and continued to progress, neither would have been available in trade, in all likelihood. So they just fall into the category of typical KW "reaches" that more often than not work out. Yes, he could be the next Sisco/Aardsma/Masset, but he could also turn into a "serviceable" (4.50-4.75 ERA, .500 record) fifth starter. Nobody particularly likes the fact that right now he's seeded as the 4th, but the expectation is certainly for Poreda one day to be at least a #4, passing pushing Marquez back in the imaginary pecking order.

I think there are quite a few who might rather have everyday players in D. Young or Hermida than a closer...it's an interesting argument at least. Also, if you said take one of the Eastern, Southern or Texas League Top 10 prospects from one of those same years, it might be a different story. Many times, All-Stars are picked based one season's accomplishments, but they are not usually selected as All-Stars based on their MLB potential. Sometimes a first-rounder will win a vote, but usually the most deserving players (statistically) make it, and many of them are future MLB players, but probably not more than 50-65%.

Just because we're going young doesn't mean we should go young at every single position. If there's one place we should feel pretty secure, it's having Alexei Ramirez in the prime of his career playing SS at one million per year. There's no better bargains in baseball right now than Ramirez, Danks and Quentin.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 19, 2008 -> 11:39 AM) You are out of your mind, you just named 2 of the best managers in the game as overrated. And thats not YOUR response, thats a response from a writer and you posted it. There are many different perceptions out there about Scioscia than him being the greatest thing since Kimbo Sliced bread. His teams have terribly underachieved in the playoffs since 2002, almost as bad as the Cubs have. Especially considering all that talent in their organization and the rising payrolls under Arte Moreno. I don't think at least half of the Twins' fanbase (from reading their boards quite a bit) thinks Gardenhire is the greatest. They still attribute the success of team to Tom Kelly, the "Twins' Way" in their minor league system, etc. For whatever reason, they've held him responsible for their poor record once they reach the playoffs. Gardenhire made plenty of horrible decisions with his bullpen this year...just like Ozzie is always accused of doing...because when you only have Guerrer/Crain/Bonser/Bass as your "go to" guys and not Hawkins and Romero (like 2002-2004), managers look DUMBER. Just like Ozzie did in 2006 and 2007, but he's a BAD manager, MANY say, but Gardenhire's great. When you look at their pythagorean averages (which is one of just many measure, but Phil Rogers is a believer in it), Guillen comes out ahead of Gardy.

Sure it's not ORLANDO Cabrera? Cepeda?

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb...,5645491.column Here's my response about Scioscia, who I sometimes think gets overrated by White Sox fans (like Gardenhire as well) and underrated by Angels' fans and beat writers (just like Ozzie). According to Joe Christensen and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins have expressed interest in Japanese pitchers Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara. The authors suggest Kawakami could allow the Twins to trade a starter, while Uehara may enter the Majors as a reliever. The Twins' interest in Kawakami first surfaced back on Tuesday. Teams such as the Orioles, Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox, Mets, and Giants have also been linked to him. Another note from Christensen: the Twins have expressed interest in Brett Tomko. :-) Please, sign Tomko and trade Slowey/Blackburn/Perkins!!! Of course, that might be bad if they actually dared to trade for say, Adrian Beltre, with that young pitching.

No, the Red Sox are calling his bluff. They won't go over 8 years and over $22 million per season. I think $160-170 will be the range for the final number. They're going to sit back and wait for TEX to decide between the Angels (wrong coast, how much does he like the tightly-controlled Scioscia atmosphere) and playing on the Red Sox, unless the Yankees throw money at him at the last second....I just can't see him pulling an A-Rod and going to BALT or WASH just because of pure dollars, but, then again, he's a Boras client. Stranger things have happened. I can't even imagine the White Sox paying Pujols $22 million at this point.

Carrasco's still on the official roster and not on the MLB list of non-tendered players...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Arqc...o&type=lgns

So, to review, Atlanta spent six weeks and two days negotiating a Peavy trade in October and November. The Braves thought they were moving close to a deal, but the Padres kept changing names on them. They thought they had a deal with Furcal, only to have that blow up amid what appear to be highly questionable -- and likely unethical -- circumstances. "It makes it difficult to do your business when a lot of times in this game you're dealing with people who either won't make a deal or can't make a deal," Wren said. They did acquire starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the White Sox earlier early this month. "Thank goodness for Kenny Williams," Wren quipped, referring to Chicago's GM. scott miller, cbssportsline.com Let's see if we're (SoxTalk) still saying that at end of the 2009 season.

According to Yahoo's Tim Brown, the Angels are nearing a three-year agreement with free agent outfielder Juan Rivera. Brown says the Halos are pursuing other free agents as well and operating as if Mark Teixeira will sign with the Red Sox. GM Tony Reagins has talked to the agents for Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn, but not Milton Bradley. The Angels may also sign a closer, and Brian Fuentes makes sense.

Who are you willing to give up for McLouth? Are you willing to trade Fields and/or Poreda, knowing/assuming that KW isn't going to give up Viciedo or Beckham?

Well, basically the Yankees bid against themselves (upping by $21 million) because they knew they couldn't sign Sabathia at the same dollars as a West Coast team, closer to his home. Same thing with the Orioles/Nats and TEX...except in reverse, he wants the Nationals to pay a "bonus" for going to a non-contending team, as illogical as this might be, because any extra monies spent on signing TEX would be money (just like in Texas with A-Rod) that would prevent signing other players, thus keeping them essentially non-competitive because of too much invested in just one player (unless he's Pujols, Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, etc.) at a non-premium position like SS or CF.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 16, 2008 -> 03:01 PM) Make it happen Kenny! We need a RHP with serious upside to fill out the rotation for '09 and beyond. I love the idea of Abreu as our #2. Now, a little dreaming. The scenario as we end July and enter August of the '09 season: Let's assume Viciedo excels in B'Ham, thriving in the warm Alabama sun despite the park's dimensions, and mostly avoiding the moonpies. Beckham does what I expect him to do, which is kick ass and force a May or June callup. Poreda looks real good at Charlotte, enough to be called up in July. Bailey being groomed to enter the rotation after excelling as the long man in the pen. lA lineup and rotation could emerge that could kick ass for the stretch run. Also, Fields does well enough in early months to warrant serious trade value before the trade deadline, and KW lands more pitching/prospects, and making room for Viciedo, whose fielding in the minors is surprisingly crisp. The major league club has performed well to this point, with Getz and Taveras setting the table competently. The veteran pitchers at the top of the rotation have been great, overcoming inconsistency from Marquez and Richard. Getz shows enough moxie, that there will be talk of grooming him for a super-utility role for '10, giving him appearaces at 3B and SS. Lillibridge and Betemit have been adequate IF backups. Now, in come the reinforcements. The lineup at the end of the season '09: Beckham 2B Abreu LF Q RF Thome DH Konerko 1B Axelei SS AJ C Viciedo 3B Taveras CF Rotation: Danks Floyd Buehrle Bailey Poreda Pen: Jenks Thornton Linebrink Dotel Link Richard Marquez Poreda moved to the pen for the playoffs. And it's just the beginning... Don't wake me up. I'm bored like the rest you, so I'm going to start a future seasons projection thread, or otherwise propose a return a Kenny's Big Board thread. Don't forget Carasco...and KW is really high on Nunez (Yankees), and Jimenez (Blue Jays) to a lesser extent. I think we'll see both of those pitchers with the Sox before we see Link this year, unless he has an incredible spring. Heck, Russell or Wasserman could factor in there, too, before Link.

Well, if the numbers are around $8 million, I'm okay with it. If you get anywhere close to or north of $10 million, not so much. We do have a huge weakness in our system in terms of pitching prospects above Winston-Salem. Ely might be the best of the bunch, but most don't project him as anything more than a 4/5 type as well. If we had Daniel Cortes, it might be another story. Poreda's really the only one with the ability to be a 3 starter or above. So, signing a FA does make sense, Garland wouldn't cost us a high draft pick like signing Juan Cruz or Brandon Lyon would at least. The best option is probably to package the best of the position prospects that KW doesn't view as future starters (maybe Fields, maybe Richard, Poreda if he will be in the pen and that's agreed upon as his only plausible role, Flowers, Brandon Allen, Shelby, Lillibridge or Getz, Anderson/Owens) and we package 2-3 of these guys together for a legit starter that has 1-3 level ability. The young prospects would be able to compile enough of a package to get almost anyone but the Top 5-10 starters in MLB. The problem is that we have to find someone in years 2-5, not someone making Jake Peavy money.

QUOTE (SpringfieldFan @ Dec 18, 2008 -> 10:16 PM) I believe Jenks - mostly. I think he made a decision to drop velocity in part for the reasons he stated. However, I don't think he had the ability to just dial it up again at will. If he could, I think he would have. Why did he revist three digits only in that last game against the Twins? It seems if he always had that ultra heater in his arsenal he would have broken it out at least a handful of times to let hitters know he still had it or to get a critical out when his back was against the wall. Wouldn't a 100mph heater have been a nice pitch to slip in against that pesky Gathright when he had a chance to set that record? How about some of those times when he was slumping and blowing saves, yet still wouldn't leave the low 90's? It just doesn't quite add up to me. I agree dropping the heat a little overall is a prudent move for all the reasons he stated, but at least keeping it availavle for a few critical occasions seems like a no-brainer to me. That 98-100 MPH heater would have been very helpful in the blown "Ken Harrelson HEART Carlos Gomez" game up in the Dome...does anyone have a replay of that game available? How hard was he throwing in the 9th inning of that game?

If we go by this 33% paycut theory, Garland would be at $8 million next season, Orlando Cabrera at $6,666.667 and Bobby Abreu at $10.7 million. We'll have to wait and see how close that is. Besides Garland, would anyone take either Cabrera or Abreu at those salaries for 2009?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20081219/wl_time/08599186745800 Article on the possible fate/s of the reporter and consequences for Maliki.

$4.5-5.5 million

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 18, 2008 -> 05:14 PM) It's "paid". Oh, and Coop'll fix 'im. Record is all that matters. Good pitchers find ways to win games. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/cjez Basically, adjusting for ballpark over the last four seasons, Garland and Vazquez are pretty identical. So if you can get Garland for significantly less than $23 million for 2 years, then you have to look at it. However, just because you can get Garland for less still doesn't necessarily make it a bargain, it just makes Vazquez's deal look comparably worse.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 18, 2008 -> 05:14 PM) It's "paid". Oh, and Coop'll fix 'im. Record is all that matters. Good pitchers find ways to win games. So Danny Wright was a "good" pitcher when he went 14-12 with a 5.18 ERA??? I think he played on an offensive juggernaut that covered up most of his mistakes by hitting extremely well (for whatever reason) when he started that year. If you went by the first half of James Baldwin's 2000 season, you would think he would now be making $10-15 million per season. The fact is, many of the balls that were hit off of him found their way into fielder's gloves at an uncanny rate...but the "luck" equalled out and he quickly returned to his normal "mehhhhh" pitching ways before succumbing to injury. Baldwin was 14-7 that season, and a "winning" pitcher, but that year was a statistical anomaly as well. The point is, ROTO stats aren't the be-all, end-all (where Javy looks very good), but wins and losses aren't the only thing to take into consideration either when judging which pitcher would be best for your team.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 18, 2008 -> 05:10 PM) Vazquez: 127-129 Garland: 106-89 Wins are all that f***ing matters! You're telling me that you can make this comparison and "control" for the overall performances for the teams those guys pitched for over their entire careers...I'm not going to argue Vazquez is great, but by your theory, we should sign Andy Pettitte for $15 million per season, or Mike Mussina...because their overall W-L records with the Yankees will hold up against any pitcher. Or maybe the Mariners would trade us Felix Hernandez straight up for Garland because of Jon's overall winning record vis a vis King Felix. If you were the GM, would you really make that move?

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 18, 2008 -> 05:00 PM) You'll just stifle the convo with stats we can all pull up with our computers. We get it. It's cool, man. Garland wasn't phenomenal last year, but 14-8 out of your 4th starter isn't exactly going to kill a team, and I'm sure it's better than having 2 of Poreda, Marquez, or Richard in the rotation. Well, the Angels were a darned good team, so of course his wins are up there. Danks' W-L percentage isn't a very good measure of 2008, is it? Look behind the numbers at Garland or E. Santana and you'll see some interesting things. I always thought Santana was better than he actually is. Also, if you just want to point to W-L records, we have a season where Danny Wright won 14 games with a 5.18 ERA, which was 0.2 higher than JG.

The thing is, we had a more talented version of Jon Garland, and his name was Javy Vazquez. Granted, someone will point to post-season 2005 (over three seasons ago now) as the differentiating factor, Javy's post-season meltdowns, but I doubt Garland would have fetched the same package as Javy did from the Braves. It's very simple....if Marquez, Poreda/Richard, Broadway, Egbert, etc., can't get it done...then KW has to scoop up one of those bargain basement FA pitchers (like Livan Hernandez last year) and hit gold like he did with Loaiza. Someone like a Daniel Cabrera (but probably not him) is lurking and the White Sox know exactly who they'd want and at what price. Signing Garland just doesn't make much sense when they fought hard to get a return on Vazquez, who would have a pretty similar contract. We're all saying we can get Garland for $20 milllion over 2 years. Kyle Lohse just got over $40 million for four years. Not to mention the fact that of the second-tier options Garland has the best track record in terms of health and durability. Someone who loses out on Lowe will go after him, and for more money than we think at this point. When we see starting pitchers' contracts start to go down, I'll believe the dire economic predictions. So far, it's only seeming to affect closers, LF/1B/DH types (although the Ibanez deal was a shocker!) and Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera's not worth $10 million in this economy, Vazquez is not worth $11.5 million and Garland is probably not worth $10-12 million per season either.