chw42

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:10 AM) Well, twice if you use bWAR, which I find to be more accurate for pitchers than fWAR. I think he's safely a 3-win pitcher. But you're right, not an elite guy. I was gonna say more than 3.2, but I got lazy. He's usually been around the 3 win mark. He probably had his best aesthetic year last season with the 15 wins and the no hitter, but realistically, he wasn't all that good in terms of peripherals. I think Hendry got tricked by the wins, the no hitter, and Garza's slightly deceiving ERA. Watch him give Garza a 4 year extension soon.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:09 AM) So, in terms of the Rays as AL competition, they give up a guy from their rotation and they get a couple guys who were old for AA last year but might fill holes on their MLB roster this year...and 2 solid prospects...one of whom is a pitcher who just arrived at AA last year, the other is a SS who was in single A last year...so the Rays essentially get no real strong help for this year's roster (Yeah they have other pitchers who can step in I know, just looking at their MLB roster from this trade). They can use Sam Fuld...lol.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:05 AM) I would have loved for Lee to stay with the Cubs. I would have had a blast teasing the Cubs fans about their SS named Ju-Lee. Only the Cubs would play a girl at SS in the MLB! Ju's part of his first name. FanGraphs' take on Garza: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/m...s-aaron-harang/ If you don't want to read it, basically, they say Garza's a slightly better version of Aaron Harang and that his ERA might not drop as much as some of us are expecting.

QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:00 AM) Archer and Lee I think, in that order. What he said.

QUOTE (Chi Town Sox @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:51 AM) Agreed, but then you think of 2010 and what Mark Kotsay would have done in that position Pull the ball to the right side for a easy DP ball. Every. Single. Time.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:50 AM) Sadly, he's rarely been healthy for us. This is true.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:44 AM) Many Cubs fans are calling it a better package that what we used to get Peavy. So you can bet if it was us trading those spects for Garza it would be a s***-show on here. Peavy's also a much better pitcher than Matt Garza when healthy. The Cubs gave up their future SS and their number one ranked prospect for a 2 or 3 starter, I wouldn't call that a good deal for them.

QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:43 AM) I would tell you that the Reds were better off with the young team they had this year. Which included Gomes. Gomes from a chemistry viewpoint fits better with this team than Dunn would have. So yes, I would rather have Gomes than the logjam on the basepads. Guys. Dont get me wrong. Im not here to rain on the Sox. I hope the Sox do well. Im just saying that Adam Dunn hits Home Runs and thats it. He is a liability on the bases, and will limit your lineup from a "get em on, get em over, and get em in" point of view. He hits alot of his home runs in meaningless times. It seems his power numbers are inflated by a pitchers concessions when the game is out of reach, or just all together meaningless. Jonny Gomes isn't any faster than Adam Dunn. He might look like he's trying to run faster, but he's not fast. As for the chemistry thing, it's not like Adam Dunn's a bad guy or anything.

The Reds didn't get the max value out of Dunn because they played him in the OF. That's part of the reason why the Reds were so bad. For every run Dunn produced, he cost them probably 3/4 of a run in the OF. That's not going to be an issue anymore since we have the luxury to stick him at DH. The Reds didn't get better because they were without Adam Dunn, they got better because of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and their cheap, young and talented pitchers in 2010. Hell, you're telling me you'd rather have Jonny Gomes' butcher glove in LF and his average bat instead of Adam Dunn?

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:16 AM) Garza turned in 3 straight years in the AL East with ERA's under 4.00. He could do really well in the NL. If he can pull a Ted Lilly, then yeah. Cubs gave up their first and fourth best prospects for Garza. Rays did well IMO.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:07 AM) Is that Hak Ju-Lee guy the SS that is so good defensively that he was supposed to move Castro to 2b? Yup.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:02 AM) the speed of Thome did play a factor in it. I'm not saying I don't like him in the lineup I think he will help alot, especially compared to Kotsay. It's just that these types of players drive me crazy because there are borderline pitches they will walk on when a hit would be better. Also the strikeouts don't benefit anything and they will strikeout 3x as much as they hit a HR. Sure it did, but the runner's speed on first has less of an effect on a double play than the runner running to first. Of course, it didn't help that Konerko hit behind Thome for the majority of Thome's time here. BTW, Dunn's K rate in RISP situations is 7% lower than his career K rate. His walk rate is also 7% higher than his career walk rate.

Matt Garza's pretty overrated if you ask me. He hasn't been worth more than ~3 WAR in his career yet. A lot of potential, not great results. He's a nice 2 or 3 option, but he's nothing great.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:57 AM) Does anyone have the stats of how he does in RBI situations? The thing that will drive me crazy during the season is the same thing that drove me crazy with Thome, when the Sox have a guy in scoring position Dunn will strikeout or walk which will not get the run in. The next guy up grounds into a double play or is out and the Sox don't score. I'm not saying getting him is a bad deal because I like his presence in the lineup. But guys like him and Thome who have a high strikeout and walk rates look good on OBP but they seems to do it at a time when a single would be much more effective. I don't think you can blame Thome for walking. You should probably blame whoever's hitting behind him. Since they're the ones hitting into DPs. All Thome can do is try to not make an out. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#bases Those are Dunn's numbers with different base/out states. Dunn's a career .231 hitter with RISP, but he also has a .420 OBP in those situations. Pitchers are probably more careful with guys like Dunn and Thome when they're up with RISP. They'd much rather pitch around them than attack them and get hurt by a three run home run.

QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 07:18 AM) The former Texas Longhorn QB recruit may have a big name, but has hit more meaningless roundtrippers than anyone in the game. As a Cincinnati Reds fan I can tell you that the Reds were drastically better without him. He can hit the long ball, but strikes out a ton. There is a reason he has floated from team to team since leaving Cincinnati. Unless they do a movie about Will Farrells life, Adam Dunn will be best known as the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation. Thats just my opinion. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...#winprobability http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#lever Those WPAs sure look pretty good in 04 and 05. Dunn's career splits also show he hits the best in high leverage situations (.925 OPS). You're over exaggerating.

I'm expecting a .380ish wOBA and at least 650 PAs. If he doesn't play much of the field, that should be worth around 3.5 WAR. That's what a lot of the projections out there right now has him at.

Twins on verge of re-signing Pavano. Two year deal, apparently. Hopefully, it's a lot of money and they're done spending.

Wood is freaking terrible. He's been playing short term at the ML level for the past 3 years already and he's sucked hard in all of them. Brent Morel at least showed an ability to hit the ball well last year and didn't hit below .200. Plus, Morel can actually play defense. Bad comparison.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 6, 2011 -> 04:42 PM) I have been on sports forums since 2004 I believe. I used to be on the 2ksports forums like it was my damn job. I had over 8,000 posts there in like 2 or 3 years, it was sickening...... Anyway, I was just going through some olds threads from 2005-2007 just to see how dumb I was when I was 15-17 years old when it came to baseball. Here are some funny/stupid things I had said. I'm embarrassed..... Dec 23rd, 2006 - The Brandon McCarthy trade..... Dramatic much? lol. Hey, you were right, you shouldn't have cared for the next season. Because it was absolutely terrible.

Frank has the home runs to probably sway the voters. Plus, these voters like to look at exactly how how great a player was anytime during his career and I think it's safe to say that early 90s Frank Thomas was a better player than Edgar Martinez at anytime in his career. You can literally compare Frank's numbers from 1991 to 1997 to Albert Pujols and say that they were similar caliber players offensively in that time span. Martinez was a very good and consistent hitter who put up some monster numbers from 1995 to the early 2000s, but when it comes to the Hall, you probably need to hit more home runs. Plus, Frank was the much bigger name and has two MVPs to show for it.

If Gordon hits like he should, he'd be a great 2-spot hitter. His ability to get on base and hit the other way is perfect for the spot.

QUOTE (zenryan @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 09:02 PM) So now that the new NFL OT rules take place (each team gets a possession unless the first team scores a TD), if you had 4th and goal from inside the 3, do you go for the win and risk the other team moving the ball down field from the 3 or do you kick the FG and allow the other team to field the kick off? I think I go for the win. I think it depends on how much you trust your defense.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 10:10 PM) All I read was a writer looking for a needle in a haystack to make a point. Welcome to sabermetric journalism, lol. I think a dip in BABIP comes naturally to almost every player who comes to the Sox. Mostly because of the park we play in. But they'll also gain a decent amount of home runs.

Just revised my WAR calculator to make things easier. I'm gonna pull up the Tigers and Twins projections in the next few days.

QUOTE (knightni @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 06:29 PM) DeMar DeRozan would have been fun to see. That guy dunks with authority.