chw42

Pitchers are: Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey. I guess the Twins didn't want to pay Hardy the money, they're signing a Japanese player. Looks like the Twins' middle infield is going to take a hit unless they re-sign Orlando Hudson. Meanwhile, it looks like the Orioles have themselves a decent infield with Reynolds, Hardy, Roberts, and maybe Derrek Lee at 1B (or Luke Scott?).

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 02:14 AM) haha...I'm not sure if you're talking about me, but I've never considered myself a sabr guy. I like to scout first, and check that stats to see where I'm agreed and differed with. I was talking more specifically about the last page.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:35 AM) lol. I mentioned that the other day. In 5 years will see wOBA, WAR and UZR listed instead of BA, HR, RBI when watching games on the tube. And honestly, I'd love it. ESPN's bottom line said something about how PK and Dunn are two of the worst defensive 1B according to advanced metrics this past year. Too bad 1. that's not true (according to UZR, Dunn was a -3, not that bad) and 2. we all know 1B UZR is usually more skewed and unreliable in a small sample sizes than any other position. This was the case for both Konerko and Dunn last year. Dunn, with the reputation and skill of a butcher, got a -3 in UZR after posting a -30 in 09. Konerko, who has a career UZR/150 of -2, posted a -13, one of the worst in the league. What pissed me off was that they just had to mention that in the bottom line. Like seriously, what was the point? To make Cubs fans happy about Carlos Pena?

Wow, this thread turned into a sabr orgy.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:05 AM) Crawford has career numbers of .300 avg and .330ish OBP with a sub .800 OPS. Part of his numbers are skewed downward due to his poor season two years ago, but man, this is a lot of dough for a 4-5 WAR replacement player at his prime. Really shows you the importance of developing from within and staying out of the FA market at times. The good thing is Crawford has shown no major health problems and is unlikely to have a high bust factor, but man, when you look past his freakish athletic build, he's just an above average player, nothing more. When he's healthy, Crawford is a 6-7 win player, like he was last year. But a couple of years down the line, he might only be a 4-5. Eventually, he'll be average (2 wins) or less by the end of the contract. Who knows what stat we'll use by then... And I'd say he's one of the best left fielders in all of baseball. I wouldn't take too many others before him in left.

QUOTE (scotty22hotty @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:36 PM) hmmmm Crawford- ~5 WAR player for $20M over 7 years Dunn- ~3 WAR player for $14 over 4 What a steal for Boston... I'd say Dunn's at least a 3.5 WAR player.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:16 PM) RM is bad at baseball, though. He's better at it than Jason Varitek.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:12 PM) They're scary good on paper. Hope for injuries(ya that makes me a bad person but I don't care)! If they sign Russell Martin, that's gonna go up to maybe 950 runs for the season.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:00 PM) Run that through one of them fancy run generators. Must show like 13 runs per game. Link 5.79 runs per game. Highest possible is 5.86. That's 940 runs. Jesus.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:59 PM) Doubt it. They'll just slide Ellsbury over. Mike Cameron is toast. I'd love to have him. Too expensive for my taste.

So is Crawford going to play center field?

Holy f***ing s***... 1. Ellsbury 2. Pedroia 3. Crawford 4. Gonzalez 5. Youkillis 6. Ortiz 7. Drew 8. Catcher 9. Scutaro

Ugly win, but whatever. God the Cavs suck.

I wonder why Boozer's been sitting out for the entire 4th quarter.

Daniel Gibson is just jacking up three after three right now. Cavs look like they have no real gameplan.

Marty34 = Joe Cowley?

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 06:07 PM) Interesting how I didn't find a show on ESPN (ATH, PTI, First Take) to have a segment about the Dunn or Konerko signings, yet they had a segment about Carlos Pena today. Also, on ESPN's bottom line today I saw they mention "Dunn and Konerko were both listed among the worst defensive 1B in baseball according to advanced fielding metrics". LOL, ok cool guys, thanks for pointing out their flaws. Oh, now they use advanced fielding metrics. But they sure didn't use them when on Derek Jeter.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 05:33 PM) Rays trade Bartlett to Padres for Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos. Who is their SS? Beckham? Brignac? Ew, Adam Russell. Good deal for SD. Although Bartlett is going to hit even worse in Petco than he did last year.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 05:10 PM) I hope he signs him to a contract extension halfway through his 1 WAR campaign. His reasoning - Jeff has hit for a very high .280 average and he has 15 home runs. What he might have missed is that his OBP would be around .310 and his SLG might be .400.

Ryan Doumit is a HORRIBLE defensive catcher.

Dayton Moore finally gets his guy - Jeff Francouer. My god, it's hilarious.

QUOTE (IamtheHBOMB @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 02:28 PM) That runs per game number only applies if the "optimal" lineup plays every game, right? Yeah, which is never going to happen. So you can take that estimate with an error of +- 15-20 runs.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 01:54 PM) Ozzie's lineup optimizer: Lol, based on what he said...(Rios hitting 4th between Dunn and Konerko). The lineup would average .05 runs less. That's an 8 run difference over the course of a season.

Ran the lineup of 1. Pierre 2. Beckham 3. Rios 4. Dunn 5. Konerko 6. Quentin 7. Pierzynski 8. Ramirez 9. Morel through a lineup optimizer with Bill James' optimistic forecasts (although these were released before they knew where Dunn would go). Link That lineup yields 5.15 runs per game. Over the course of a year, that's 835 runs, 80 or so more than last year. The best lineup (with Gordon leading off and Dunn hitting second) yields 5.23 runs per game.

Now that I know Konerko's getting differed money in 2013, I feel a bit better about this.