chw42

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 03:15 PM) Ugh SI_JonHeyman #tigers, #phillies, #yankees, #cardinals said to be in on haren. he is now expected to move. tigers could be favorite. 2 minutes ago via web Well this sucks. Come on Yankees and Phillies, buy your way through!

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 03:10 PM) Some Oswalt related tweets: Ken_Rosenthal #Twins NOT on Oswalt; haven't even contacted #Astros. #Dodgers in, but face usual $$$/prospect issues: http://tinyurl.com/23m73mn #Mets #MLB 5 minutes ago via web jaysonst One more in Rumor Central: Astros asking one big-leaguer, 2 high-end prospects & a second-tier prospect for Oswalt http://es.pn/avaTZH 26 minutes ago via web So... Sergio Santos + Dan Hudson + Jordan Danks + "insert name here" for Oswalt?

Even I'd have to take Dye and I used to bag on him on a daily basis.

Trevor Cahill's ERA makes him look better than he actually is. FIP doesn't lie unless your name is Javier Vazquez.

I just have to say that it's entertaining to see a GM of an actual baseball team fail so badly at his job.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 01:30 PM) Ken_Rosenthal #Royals like Francoeur. GM Moore had him with #Braves. $5M salary an obstacle. Also: Frenchy 1 more year of arb; potential non-tender. #MLB about 1 hour ago via web Of course they do. Dayton Moore really is clueless. Isn't this the same guy that stressed OBP when he was first hired then immediately traded for Mike f***ing Jacobs and dealt for Yuniesky Betancourt last year? His team is currently 3rd to last in baseball in walks and he's interested in Jeff Francouer. Holy crap. The funny thing is that he could have had both for FREE, but gave up something in return. Jeff Francouer is the perfect guy for Dayton to acquire, he loves replacement level players.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 02:16 PM) Hudson, Santos, and Trayce Thompson souls get it done if they wanna do it. Go get LaRoche with Flowers and call it a day with your nuts in a vice. That looks good for this year and gives us a crazy rotation next year. Peavy, Haren, Danks, Floyd, Mark B That's crazy s*** there LaRoche isn't worth Flowers.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 02:03 PM) chw are you trying to build a case where if and when we lose the division we can all simply say, "It's Bobby Jenks' fault!" Not flaming. Just asking. Because if that is the case, it's pretty f***ing stupid. The season is a marathon and you'd have to look at all other contending teams and how many games their closer blew, etc. No? Why are you assuming that I am? If we do lose the division by one game, there's a lot of things we can look back at and point to as the reason why. No single person should get the blame unless there's overwhelming evidence that it was the case.

I can't believe BP would think the White Sox want a 3B that isn't any better than Vizquel or Mark Teahen.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 12:38 PM) What are you basing Rowand > Rios on? How many diving plays were made? UZR and Plus/Minus, 05 Rowand owns Rios in both of those categories. Seriously, people used to love Rowand when he was here. But oh, now that he's gone, I don't know, those diving catches sure seemed overrated...

QUOTE (BearSox @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 01:06 PM) If I ever again hear someone say that Bobby Jenks has been unlucky because of some BS saber stats, my head might explode. Outside of a stretch in June, Jenks has been awful and consistently getting hit HARD. Now you're jumping to the opposite side of the spectrum. Nobody's really saying he's unlucky because of some BS sabr stat, in fact, if you actually take everything into consideration, Jenks has pretty much deserved to be hit hard.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 12:23 PM) Are we really going to quibble about 93.6 versus 95%? You also forget that the expectancy goes up as you get more outs as well. I didn't forget. I had to go to lunch. As for that, in a one run game, the win expectancy goes up to 95% when there are two outs. In a two run game, it goes to 97% with one out. So yes, there is a 95% or greater win expectancy in just about every win that occurs. However, there's also a 50% win expectancy in every game as well, but that doesn't mean that each team will play .500 ball does it?

The only thing I know is that he can't be worse than Quentin. Good enough for me.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 11:38 AM) How many times a year to we get to the point where we have a 95% chance of winning a game? It has to be a fairly big number. If you look the closers save%'s it almost has to be. They always come into situations where they are winning in the last inning by at least a run, if not two or three, which kicks the odds way up. Looking at just the # of opportunities there are tells me that it has to be most games at the very least. If you only take into account the win expectancy when the closer comes in at the top or bottom of the 9th inning with nobody out, the only time where win expectancy is at 95% is when there is a 3 run lead. When there is a 2 run lead in a similar situation, the win expectancy is 93.6%. When there is a 1 run lead in a similar situation, the win expectancy is 80%.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 10:28 AM) In other words, we are going to lose a statisitical amount of those sort of games, every single year, and you really shouldn't be freaking out if you believe in those type of stats that much. That's if they play 20 games like that every year, which they are not on pace for. So far, Jenks has entered a situation like the one we are talking about 7 times, including the one he blew. In this case, they are on pace for 12 of these situations this year. Since this is an estimate, we can give or take two or three games. If you want to be liberal about it, 5 games even. Even in that case, it will not be 20 games and you really can't lose partial games.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:59 AM) "Slightly over the minimum" is how I'm reading it described. So around $3 million left to spend then?

Well, no DeJesus for us.

QUOTE (TomPickle @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 04:17 PM) $5 million is a steal, he's easily worth $12 million. How the hell did that guy write a book when he thinks a replacement level player is worth the money of a 3 WAR player?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 10:01 AM) Without giving up Beckham, it's going to have to be Gavin Floyd AND Santos AND Viciedo/Flowers. You can't cripple the starting pitching staff by including Floyd, Danks or Hudson in a trade. We can shed Torres, of course, but that's not going to be enough to come close to getting Fielder or Dunn. Gavin Floyd alone is worth more than Prince Fielder.

QUOTE (kane0730 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 08:16 AM) Per Heyman: "chisox like prince fielder but have discussed dunn, laroche and berkman, in that order, as possible 2nd choices." At this point, I'd be happy with any of these 4 guys. LaRoche makes me happy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:23 AM) KC I guess it was a cheap deal then. I saw that the team had $4.4 million left to spend after the Watson S&T.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 08:40 AM) BP: Five trades that need to happen I'll take Scott. No thanks to Tejada. He's just terrible. If the cost for Scott is Escobar + Nunez/Harell, then what is Kenny waiting for?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:30 AM) It happens to every team, every year. Each team in the division probably could pick out at least five of those kind of games. Think about it for a second, if there is a 95% chance of victory, that still means one in twenty games you will lose. That means if you got to a 95% chance in say 60 games a year, you are statistically going to lose three of them, on average. We're talking about one game and the win expectancy of the game going into the bottom of the 9th. In that game, you had a 95% chance of winning. If you were to play that game from the bottom of the 9th and on 20 times, you should win 19 times. I understand what you're trying to say though.

I think we're out of cap space now depending on how much Thomas costs. Thomas is an alright backup. He'll probably end up being a 10 PER player.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 07:06 PM) I don't like Butler at all. He's a doubles machine and sports a nice OBP. But he's got pathetic overall pop for a player his size/position. He plays in Kansas City and hit 21 home runs last year. I'll take that.