chw42

The only thing I know is that he can't be worse than Quentin. Good enough for me.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 11:38 AM) How many times a year to we get to the point where we have a 95% chance of winning a game? It has to be a fairly big number. If you look the closers save%'s it almost has to be. They always come into situations where they are winning in the last inning by at least a run, if not two or three, which kicks the odds way up. Looking at just the # of opportunities there are tells me that it has to be most games at the very least. If you only take into account the win expectancy when the closer comes in at the top or bottom of the 9th inning with nobody out, the only time where win expectancy is at 95% is when there is a 3 run lead. When there is a 2 run lead in a similar situation, the win expectancy is 93.6%. When there is a 1 run lead in a similar situation, the win expectancy is 80%.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 10:28 AM) In other words, we are going to lose a statisitical amount of those sort of games, every single year, and you really shouldn't be freaking out if you believe in those type of stats that much. That's if they play 20 games like that every year, which they are not on pace for. So far, Jenks has entered a situation like the one we are talking about 7 times, including the one he blew. In this case, they are on pace for 12 of these situations this year. Since this is an estimate, we can give or take two or three games. If you want to be liberal about it, 5 games even. Even in that case, it will not be 20 games and you really can't lose partial games.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:59 AM) "Slightly over the minimum" is how I'm reading it described. So around $3 million left to spend then?

Well, no DeJesus for us.

QUOTE (TomPickle @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 04:17 PM) $5 million is a steal, he's easily worth $12 million. How the hell did that guy write a book when he thinks a replacement level player is worth the money of a 3 WAR player?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 10:01 AM) Without giving up Beckham, it's going to have to be Gavin Floyd AND Santos AND Viciedo/Flowers. You can't cripple the starting pitching staff by including Floyd, Danks or Hudson in a trade. We can shed Torres, of course, but that's not going to be enough to come close to getting Fielder or Dunn. Gavin Floyd alone is worth more than Prince Fielder.

QUOTE (kane0730 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 08:16 AM) Per Heyman: "chisox like prince fielder but have discussed dunn, laroche and berkman, in that order, as possible 2nd choices." At this point, I'd be happy with any of these 4 guys. LaRoche makes me happy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:23 AM) KC I guess it was a cheap deal then. I saw that the team had $4.4 million left to spend after the Watson S&T.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 08:40 AM) BP: Five trades that need to happen I'll take Scott. No thanks to Tejada. He's just terrible. If the cost for Scott is Escobar + Nunez/Harell, then what is Kenny waiting for?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 23, 2010 -> 09:30 AM) It happens to every team, every year. Each team in the division probably could pick out at least five of those kind of games. Think about it for a second, if there is a 95% chance of victory, that still means one in twenty games you will lose. That means if you got to a 95% chance in say 60 games a year, you are statistically going to lose three of them, on average. We're talking about one game and the win expectancy of the game going into the bottom of the 9th. In that game, you had a 95% chance of winning. If you were to play that game from the bottom of the 9th and on 20 times, you should win 19 times. I understand what you're trying to say though.

I think we're out of cap space now depending on how much Thomas costs. Thomas is an alright backup. He'll probably end up being a 10 PER player.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 07:06 PM) I don't like Butler at all. He's a doubles machine and sports a nice OBP. But he's got pathetic overall pop for a player his size/position. He plays in Kansas City and hit 21 home runs last year. I'll take that.

This is Dayton Moore's face right now ->

LUKE SCOTT WHERE ART THOU?

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 06:12 PM) Who do the Royals have left? Let's get Butler I wish.

QUOTE (noodle_53 @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 06:03 PM) Good response, chw42. You guys see Jenks everyday and I don't, but it's still tough for me to think a guy that is striking out 11 per 9 has totally lost his stuff. If he had, folks wouldn't be swinging and missing so often. He's still got good velocity most of the time. His failures are a result of bad location and bad pitch selection this year.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 05:38 PM) Who would touch Bynum with his injury history? Whoever's dating him.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 05:50 PM) I assume this is the end of the Brandon Wood era? Man that dude is garbage. AAAA player extraordinaire. It's amazing how he was playing like Evan Longoria down there, but can't even hit .200 in the majors.

This is about as good as Rios will get. That said, what Crawford's been doing this year might be about as good as he gets. Overall, Crawford is the better player. But I think he'd cost a lot more than Rios' $12 million annual salary. I think we have the better value in Rios.

We play the Royals more than the Angels. The less we see of him, the better. He's not hitting too well this year, but he's made a living killing us.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 05:04 PM) Not defending Jenks, just showing how stupid it is to say "these 2 games will cost us" when there are probably 15 others you could say the exact same thing for. You could have said that any number of years about any player who had a bad stretch. Doesn't matter who the player is, blaming an entire season on one guy is retarded, sorry. They could cost us, do you remember that this division has come down to a play-in game the past two years? You can't afford to blow games you had a 95% chance of winning. Especially not against a division rival who is going to be right there with you for the entire season.

QUOTE (noodle_53 @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 04:55 PM) Man, I wish as a Royals fan that a closer was our only problem ... Looking at his numbers, I'm surprised a bit by the animosity towards Jenks. The guy is striking out 11.0 guys per nine innings (his best mark since 2005). From being on this board during Royals series, I think most folks here know about FIP and xFIP. If you look, his FIP is 2.78 and his xFIP is 2.82 (Both numbers are better than Joakim Soria's). That means, even though Jenks' ERA is above 5, he's gotten really unlucky (his BABIP is .402, which is ridiculously high). I know he's blown two saves and the tendency is to overreact, but I definitely wouldn't write off a guy that is striking out 11 guys per nine innings. There's a lot of saber-people on this board, myself included. We're well aware of Jenks' good peripherals. The issue here is that he's getting hit very hard. The reason as to why his FIP and xFIP are so low is that he's not giving up home runs. This is due to a unsustainable and abnormal 20% FB rate. His LD rate and GB rate consist of nearly 70% of his batted balls in play, 22% of them being line drives, the highest mark of his career. That's the reason for the .402 BABIP. The high LD and GB rates result in a tERA of 3.66. Could it be bad luck? Maybe. But if you're just laying a flat 94 MPH fastball in there, you'd be lucky for it to be an out. Randy Wells has had a similar case of this year. His LD rate was insanely high, but he maintained good peripherals.

QUOTE (onedude @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 03:51 PM) changing your sig anytime soon LOL Not until he gets to .250.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 03:53 PM) Epic fail. lol... Jones' UZR in right this year: -0.7 (UZR/.150 of -9) Jones' Plus/Minus in right this year: +2 (more updated) Dye's UZR in 2005: -4 (UZR/150 of -4.7) Dye's Plus/Minus in 2005: +2. Andruw's no longer the same guy who played some of the best defense the game has ever seen. He's still decent out there, but some of you are overrating him.