chw42

Catch probability doesn't care about the route he took. The route he took is why he didn't catch it, but the 85% number has nothing to do with him taking a bad route. It would have been 85% with Peters out there taking a good route and getting a good jump.

So game winning hit yesterday was not a complete gimme. 85% catch probability. It's still a play that should be made, but Antonacci had to cover 82 feet in 4.8 seconds.

It's effectively 2.5 due to the tiebreaker. The magic # is still 9 for the wild card.

I don't think it's necessarily Venable choosing the openers. The analytics team along with the pitching coach probably decides. I'm sure Will has input, but he probably isn't the only decision maker.

I didn't hate the idea cause Martin has looked pretty shaky in the first before. He got away with it in his last outing.

They play Toronto in the next series. Whoever wins that might be the our biggest competitor for the wild card.

The catch probability on that one is 99% btw. Watson also hit that ball harder and farther than Rocchio with a slightly higher xBA. The only saving grace might have been the higher launch angle (38 vs. 30).

That's just the expected batting average. Catch probability is based on opportunity time and starting position.

Just looking at this again, did anyone else feel like Sam didn't quite fully dive? Felt like he didn't want the ball to get past him. But...if that drops the game is over anyways.

Look at the route that Peters took and the route that Sam took. If he rounds out his initial jump he probably catches that.

The way the guys looked after that play, it felt like they knew their season was done. Burke looked shellshocked.

We'll probably find the catch probability tomorrow

He misread it, came in initially and had to chase that ball. I'm sure we can get a catch probability on that ball and it's probably fairly high.

Yeah but we've scored 5 runs off him in 3 starts. That's not good.

His steps inward makes it look like he was playing shallower than he actually was.

Or if Hicks didn't revert to being bad. They basically have no good RH options out of the bullpen besides Taylor.

Now instead of playing with house money tomorrow it's a must win going against their best starter.

Yup I'm all for a waste pitch on 0-2 to see if you get lucky.

I'm not sure he was really sitting fastball on that last pitch. He put up a very defensive swing.

Who was it that was arguing that defensive subs don't make a difference? This is first hand experience that it absolutely does. Grichuk would have gotten to that cause he wouldn't have taken the wrong route to it. Any experienced outfielder would never take that many steps in on a ball hit like that.

Yup I didn't like the pitch selection. If you want to go high fastball, go higher. He threw the perfect curveball on the first pitch. Go to that again.

Doyle actually did pretty well today at the plate. He's the reason we scored the first run.

Every player should have a pitch com. Why would he do that when the pitch is a high fastball?

I don't know why teams keep walking him. He's not that good of a hitter.

Grant has been getting hurt on his high fastball. He's not throwing it high enough.