chw42

Frank Castillo has.

One thing I absolutely love about EE is that he's embracing the importance of launch angle. He had one of the highest average launch angles in baseball last year at 22 degrees. That's 5 degrees higher than his career average. There's a reason he's still hitting bombs at 36 and was on pace to hit almost 50 last year. Launch angle is what a lot of our hitters struggle with badly. Abreu hits the ball hard but almost always on the ground or on a line hence why he doesn't hit as well as his exit velos and hard hit % indicate. Mazara also suffered greatly from low launch angles. I'm not sure if EE's approach will rub off on the other guys on the team, but it can't hurt to have a guy who preaches and practices it.

I doubt that kind of plan ever gets EE to sign here. I'm thinking he wants full PT, not be a platoon partner with Collins and get maybe 1/3 of the PAs at DH.

I was surprised to learn that Pence actually played some OF last year. I thought he just DH'd for Texas. I'm sure he'll come at half the price of EE, but you're also getting less of a certainty at the plate.

I'm perfectly fine with selling high-ish on McCann. But hopefully it doesn't affect Giolito's production given that McCann is his personal catcher.

I think it'd depend on how good Collins looks in ST, specifically how he hits against ML-level fastballs. I know he doesn't have much more to prove down in AAA, but if he still struggles in ST against velocity and you do sign a DH, he'd have nowhere to go but AAA. I don't see that as bad for his development since he's still just 24 and does have things to work on. There is a chance father time finally catches up with EE, but for hitters like him they are supposed to slow down around their early 30s and never hit again. He's bucked the trend. He did go from an elite to a good hitter after his early 30s, but he's been a consistently good hitter ever since. I think there's a much better chance he continues that than Collins figuring it out at the ML level this year.

I'm more or less basing that from what I saw in September, AFTER he got overmatched in June. He did play better in September, but he still struck out 36% of the time. When bat meets ball, Collins is very good. He had good exit velos and hard hit % in his short stint last year. But he's got a lot of things to work on in his swing to make sure he can at least make contact 70% of the time. He was clearly overmatched by fastballs and velocity last year at the ML level if you go look at just how poorly he hit off fastballs last year and his whiff rate on it. You're basically praying he adjusts this off-season and ST if you seriously think he can give you a .350 wOBA next year. Because that's what he'd have to do to be better than EE next year. That's the bar. The $8-10 mil you're giving to EE isn't coming out of your pocket and it's not a financial burden on the franchise. I'm not sure why you wouldn't make that investment to shore up a spot that's haunted us in the past on previous contending teams.

Honestly I see a guy who has trouble making contact at the ML level. And while he may get better with experience, I'm not sure we have the luxury of letting him figure it out while we're in a contention window without a contingency plan. If he's hitting poorly by mid May and getting regular PAs as a DH vs. RHP most of this board will be wondering why we didn't sign a more experienced guy.

Seriously... Go look at how he hit last year and the past few years. He had an injury mid season and still crushed the ball in the 2nd half. He was hitting in the middle of the lineup for a 100+ win Yankees team. But all of a sudden he's too much of a scrub and worse than the guy who's only hit AAA pitching well. Also it's not like he's a 37 year old asking for a 4 year deal. More likely than not, he's here for one year. I'd look at him as an insurance policy. If Collins mashes, great, you can play Collins and maybe flip EE at the deadline. If Collins struggles, you still have a DH.

Right, if we spent all this money to compete this year, are we really gonna go into the season giving regular PAs to an unproven guy like Collins? With the history of just how bad our DH spot has been and our track record with developing prospects, should we really be confident that Collins will be able to produce? We've been down that path before and it's almost never turned out well. I don't care how old EE is, the guy just hits. If you sign him, you're getting a 120 wRC+ you can plug into the 5th spot of your lineup. I still see posts about how we still need so many things to go our way for next season to be a potential playoff year, well, getting an established DH checks one thing off that list.

I don't think the Sox were ever that interested in him because of his injury history. They wanted Keuchel cause he was the best bet to give us innings consistently.

EE and a bullpen arm and I'm all in.

Especially when you can get the better bat in EE to DH full time. If you're mostly going to DH Castellanos there is no reason to give him a huge deal when you can give EE $12-15 million for one year.

No it's in line with what pitchers have been getting. Keuchel actually projects very similarly to Bumgarner.

Gonna go with EE and Stammen as the guys we bring in.

IMO Keuchel only looks bad cause he wasn't real good last year even though his ERA was fine. His FIP was trash but he pitched half a year and his statcast numbers were fine. He's projected to be a 2.5 win pitcher. I'm perfectly fine with paying him $18 mil a year for that, assuming he can keep that kind of production up for another 2 years.

Realistically, this puts the Sox at 35 WAR projection-wise. That's a 83 win team. If things go our way we will be in playoff contention. Go add a guy like EE as well as at least one good bullpen arm and we'll really be set.

I'm ok with this. At least we spent the money. Keuchel is probably a 2 or 3 win pitcher for the next few years and he will probably be worth his contract for the most part

ZiPS had the Sox projected at around 30 WAR before the Gio signing. Add Gio at 1.5 wins and they're at around 32. That's around a 80 win team. If ZiPS has us as a .500 team now, some luck/hits on our prospects will easily have us in contention. Their projections had Robert at 2.5 wins, Kopech at 1.9, and Madrigal/Mendick at 1.9. All fairly feasible assuming they stay healthy and get playing time like we all think they will this year.

Gio can still throw 91 and has elite hard hit% and exit velocity numbers. If he can stay healthy, I can totally see a 2 win season from him in about 150 innings.

I don't hate it assuming we're still going to spend money on another arm. Gio wasn't bad last year with Milwaukee but had a lot of issues staying healthy. If it's a cheap deal and he gives us 150 innings, it's a good signing.

I know it would have cost us way more to get Kluber since we're within the division, but what do you guys think it would have taken had we absorbed the whole contract?

Bumgarner got paid as a 10 win pitcher over the next 5 years. That's very reasonable for him. He wouldn't have been the best fit for this team, but for $17 million a year, it's a very reasonable deal. You get a guaranteed innings eating lefty whose floor is 2 WAR. That's better than everyone the Sox have right now besides Giolito.

I'd rather have 6 years of control on a lottery prospect like Walker and spend some money on a FA like Calhoun than trade for Mazara.

Mazara is basically a left handed Avi in terms of hype as a prospect. Except Avi actually hits the ball harder and has had success in the Majors.