Chicago White Sox

The “lower price” for Harper at best case is probably 10/$300M. The Cubs can not afford anything close to that level of contract. The Ricketts are running the Cubs like a business and are using their profits to pay off interest / debt load. And what ad revenue are you referring to? Have you seen Cubs’ TV ratings? There is no upside because their ratings are already insanely good. Adding Harper would reflect the definition of diminishing returns. Someone who can actually take advantage of his marketability will pay him what’s he worth.

A week and a half to camp, this has to end soon.

Cubs finally got him through waivers.

The difference is Boras wants it known more teams are in the mix. The Cubs meeting with Harper (whether serious or not) would be huge in that sense and something Boras would make sure gets out there.

So the Cubs flew out yesterday and met with Harper the day after the entire media went nuts reporting he was meeting with the Padres and no one but this one rando knows about this? Color me skeptical.

At this point probably when we hit 1,000 pages.

Wait, Micheal prefers baseball? Oh god I hope that’s typo...don’t want him doing anything with the Sox. That being said, Jerry does own a much smaller portion of the Sox right? I don’t think they could just hand him an important role like he has the Bulls or at least I hope not.

I think he prefers basketball, so we may in fact get lucky!

I was just going to say, these clowns aren’t actually making any personnel moves but rather just money grabs.

Why can’t we sign Machado and use our prospect depth in the OF to add a proven OF?

fWAR by season from 2015 to 2018. Machado: 6.6, 6.3, 2.6, 6.2 (21.7 / 5.4 avg) Harper: 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5 (20.6 / 5.2 avg) Overall the total production is very similar, the difference is Machado’s outlier season is dragging his numbers down while Harper’s is boasting his up. I think Machado is the safer player over the next five years, but beyond that it’s probably Harper because his skill set will likely age better but at that point each would have likely opted out already.

I think from a purely on-field production standpoint, Machado has the safer floor while Harper has the higher ceiling. Manny has been more consistent at the plate, plays plus defense at 3B, and is far more durable since his knee surgeries. He seems like a guy you can reasonably project 6 to 6.5 win seasons from for the next five or so years. Bryce definitely has the better bat when it’s going right and in those moments it can be MVP caliber. As for his defense, while I do think many around here are overreacting to a rough 2018, I do think it leaves a lot to be desired. I don’t buy this “he’ll need to move to 1B”, but he’s never going to be a good defensive OF IMO. The durability is one of the biggest issues I have with Bryce. He’s played less than 120 games in three of his last six seasons. Certain guys always seemed to be banged up and Bryce just may be one of them. I don’t think you can wrong with either, but I do think Machado is the better bet to provide consistent star production over the next half decade and will likely come quite a bit cheaper. I currently lean Manny, but would still be ecstatic if we ended up with Harper.

Like everything in life, our system needs better balance / diversification. I don’t believe there is one right draft strategy other than the age-old BPA, but I do think our focus on college players in recent years has been a bit troubling. Right now, our system lacks athleticism outside of a handful of guys and that limits its overall upside. That will become more apparent when guys like Robert, Basabe, etc reach the majors. I will give the Sox some credit for the 2018 draft. They signed five high school positional guys, including two in the top 10 and a well over slot Bush. While I wish they used their 2nd pick on a high upside H.S. prospect and not another college OF, I can appreciate we added some much needed youth to the system. It will be interesting to see how these guys shake out, as their success (or failures) could impact our willingness to take premium H.S. players early in the draft in the future.

Great fucking post!

No one is suggesting they trade him for a short term player...

100% agree. I honestly don’t put much weight into projection systems when it comes to young players.

Projection systems also have to no idea how to account for a guy like Moncada who is a couple adjustments away from being a stud.

I’m not sure where this 15 more wins is coming from, but I’d argue our young players underperformed last year and should be significantly better next year. How many wins that represents I have no idea, but the coaching staff doesn’t deserve credit for top 50 prospects being halfway decent players.

I can’t believe anyone can think Lopez is what he is for the most part. He pitched quite well down the stretch and has significant room for improvement. I think he’s ends up a 4 win pitcher next year. Rodon & Moncada easily have the most room for improvement IMO. Anderson will always be limited due to his below average plate discipline, but can get a little better with more consistent defense. Giolito is a wild card, but I still don’t see anything more than #3 starter even if his mechanics finally click.

Yup, young talented players clearly can’t improve.

No offense, but this is just stupid. We have significant financial flexibility that is completely worthless if we’re afraid to spend it. And we should be spending thaf money on high-end talent, not B & C tier free agents. If we land Machado, Madrigal becomes a great trade piece for a cost-controlled stud. If we sign Harper, we can move one or more of those OF prospects to fill holes. Saying Harper is only a marginal upgrade over a 2 or 3 WAR outfielder (if you buy he’s a 5 win player) ignores the fact that said player he’s replacing can be traded to help improve the team in other ways.

I don’t enjoy being a Debbie Downer, but our miracle happened when we won the draft lottery and got Rose. And our shitty front office couldn’t put the pieces around him to build a championship. I agree the potential for this organization to take a massive leap forward is there, but it won’t happen under GarPax and I just don’t see Michael Reinsdorf making any changes given his close relationship with Gar unless the cash suddenly stops flowing in.

I’m going to keep saying it, but you guys really need to accept the fact the Bulls will be in NBA hell

Madrigal has the highest probability in the entire organization (excluding Eloy) of becoming a 2-3 win player and it’s by pretty wide margin. You’re argument against Harper would apply to Machado as well then.

Yup, I truly believe we could afford both of them in the short-term and build a highly competitive roster with a payroll around $160M. That’s much closer to middle of the pack than top 5 in terms of payroll. And within three or four years, one or both guys will likely opt-out creating much needed flexibility as our young guys start getting expensive. The problem with this plan (which is where I think Hahn is coming from) is in the unlikely event both guys underperform and you’re suddenly plagued with two albatross contracts for the remainder of a decade. The risk of that happening may be small IMO, but it would be so catostrophic to the well being of the franchise if it did that I can understand Hahn’s reluctance.