Chicago White Sox

100% agree.

I don’t think they can afford both, especially after their catcher moves.

I said Yankees or Nationals a few days ago in a different thread. This is great news and shows the Phillies have their limits.

With who?

What happens if another team has this same stance?

Thanks. I personally feel pretty strongly about Yoan being a 4 win player next year and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s even better than that. I truly believe he was rushed and a guy like him, who was able to succeed in the minors on talent alone, needed to experience failure at the major league in order to make the right adjustments. There’s no denying his physical abilities, but I’m generally impressed by his work ethic, which is evident by him going to Arizona this offseason and working with Renteria & Steverson on his hitting. As for Corbin, I shaved over a full point off his 2017 WAR. For Machado, I don’t believe using career averages for a guy just hitting his prime and believe he could be a 7 win player next year at 3B, but decided to shave off a point. For Eloy, I simply took Steamer’s projection and bumped it up slightly to account for a quicker promotion and the general conservatism it has for young players. With Rodon it all comes down to health and my entire premise is based on relatively good health for the team. If he makes 30 starts next year, he should easily be a 3 win pitcher IMO with the upside for more. And that’s a key point here. I personally think Lopez could be a 4 win pitcher next year. I agree that Anderson could be a 3 win player with some moderate improvement with the bat along with his 2nd half defense showing up for the full season. People keep looking at the downside, but I’d argue there is still potential upside in my projections and those can potentially cover for areas of underperformance.

My projections were never meant to be a 50/50 outcome. They lean on the side of optimism, but the point of the exercise (which you missed) was the six young guys do not all need to become “5 WAR stars” for us to be competitive like you suggested. If you want to shave off a few points for the AAA reinforcements that’s fine, but that’s not going to be worth five wins unless we experience significant injuries and my plan always assumed reasonably good health. So let’s call it a 40 fWAR team. I think that makes us a decent enough threat to the Indians.

The Cubs have zero chance at Harper unless they can pawn Heyward on Dipoto. I still don’t see how the Yankees are a fit for Bryce. As for the Phillies, while their owner is eager to spend, their front office is rumored to be a bit nervous at the theoretical prices for the whales. I still think Philly will land one of these guys, but the owner will have to ignore the wishes of his front to pull an A-Rod/Rangers.

I think you’re giving Philly too much credit. Outside of money, they aren’t the most attractive of destinations. Heyman’s recent article mentioned Harper not being thrilled with the idea of living in Philadelphia. The Yankees are the real threat if they want to be as every big free agent apparently loves NYC and grew up a Yankees fan.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on the projections for the young guys. I’ll admit I have some cause for concern with Rodon, but if we don’t believe he’ll put up 3 WAR next year then he should be traded for whatever we can get for him right now. That being said, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now that he’s a full year removed from shoulder surgery.

Again, I fully agree, although I’d rather not trade for a CF with Robert, Basabe, etc. a year or two out. But maybe we can move Yolmer for his OF equivalent.

I 100% agree but Balta told me I was at $150M and I didn’t have the energy to check the math. Additionally, I did not feel compelled to put Moncada in CF since no one believes that’s a possibility.

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following: 1B: Abreu - 2.5 2B: Moncada - 4.0 SS: Anderson - 2.5 3B: Machado - 6.0 LF: Jimenez - 3.5 CF: Engel - 0.5 RF: McCutchen - 2.5 DH: Palka - 1.0 CA: Castillo - 2.0 Bench - 1.0 Subtotal = 25.5 #1: Corbin - 5.0 #2: Rodon - 3.0 #3: Lopez - 3.0 #4: Pomeranz - 1.5 #5: Giolito - 1.0 Bullpen - 4.0 Sub-total = 17.5 That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR. That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys. Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

Where are the 10 fWAR gap & $115M payroll coming from? I’m going to need you to provide me with a walk. But for the hell of it, I’ll say Corbin, Pomeranz, & Allen with Yolmer moved to clear some salary.

They also didn’t spend significantly in free agency.

Which is why we were using fWAR in our theoretical and not W-L record? Now you’re just arguing with yourself.

Great analysis. There are additional moves to the pitching staff I would make that would hopefully help offset the gap. You’re also assuming the Indians will automatically repeat last year’s performance. That is a bold assumption given that they’ve already lost a couple key pieces, might trade one of their elite starters, and had near perfect health from all their stars last year.

Again, not everyone on the Braves took a huge leap. All teams have some holes / weaknesses.

I’ve listed the names of the “polished college bats”, but for your reference they are Schwarber, Conforto, Swanson, Bregman, & Benitendi. I’d wager a lot of organizations would have called up Senzel in 2017, but technically I can’t include him.

? I didn’t mention anything about a potential pitching staff?

Wow, you’re sticking with ERA as a better indicator of pitching staff quality than fWAR. You are literally the walking example of the dangers of people incorrectly using statistics to make any argument they want.

Add Machado & McCutchen and suddenly the only holes we have on the positional side are CF & DH. Backup catcher can be assessed on the cheap and provide similar overall production.

This is just a ridiculous post. The Braves & A’s were 13th & 17th in pitching fWAR last year respectively. Throw in Cubs at 18th and your theory is completely bunk. There isn’t some golden rule on the quality of a pitching staff to make the playoffs. All a bad staff means is more pressure on your positional guys to produce big.

The Oakland A’s won 97 games last year due to their young positional group. The Braves won 90 games with two of their best players being first year guys in Albies & Acuna. Neither team had a dominant pitching staff. You & Balta act like any holes / question marks means a team can’t be competitive and that’s simply not true. Development isn’t linear and young players in particular can take massive strides in short periods of time. Moncada & Jimenez are elite talents capable of leading a huge turnaround next year. If you want to wait for those guys to breakthrough before investing in the team, you risk losing a crucial year of service time if it happens next year and you don’t have a respectable roster. That doesn’t mean we should go all-in by any means, but the days of tanking should end the moment Eloy is up here.

He asked how many guys we pushed through quickly, I wasn’t arguing whether it was right or wrong. My original point remains the same that polished college bats tend to move quickly. And unlike with Rodon & Fulmer, the guys I’m referenced have had very good major league careers.