Chicago White Sox

Simonetti Source & Leyritz are the only two people I’m aware of that have said something similar. I know next to nothing about the first guy, but it sure reeks of someone pitching his wagon to Dan Clark because why the fuck not. And I know Jim Leyritz broke the Stanton trade a year ago, but he’s also not a guy that does this for a living and has had some big misses. I question how much real time access he has to the front office and he was also was responding to some random person’s question and not intending to report anything. Am I missing anyone else?

Well you don’t worry about paying someone after a career year unless said year was a clear outlier which it wasn’t. And like I said, the difference between his 2018 and 2015/2016 seasons can be explaining by a natural aging curve.

Here’s my legit, unbiased guess on what’s happening. I truly believe the Sox & Phillies are offering substantially more money than the Yankees. All else being equal, Manny would love to go to New York and has told people as much, but is unlikely to leave big money on the table. I’m guessing Dan Clark had heard the former from someone close to Machado and is simply exaggerating the certainty of him joining the Yankees because most people think it’s his likely landing spot and he has an opportunity to be the “first to report”. I’m also going to guess offers are not truly final and that Manny is thinking through how much money he’s willing to pass on to play in New York. I would imagine there is still some last minute gamemanship to take place.

I know some of you guys have already abandoned the Machado ship, but I’m going to reiterate the silence from legit insiders is deafening. Not a single guy has responded to Dan Clark’s report. If things were really as close as some of these minor / New York “insiders” were suggesting, one of the national guys would have gotten some indication on this by now and tweeted accordingly. I truly don’t think a decision has been made yet and fully believe we’re still in this thing.

Career year? How was this season that much different than his 2015 & 2016 seasons? And do you not expect young players to improve as they reach their prime? Come on man, just come out and say you don’t like the dude and are unable to be objective. Also, if you’re only interesting in signing players that want to be here, then god only knows when the next free agent will be joining us. Outside of summers in Chicago, we aren’t a very desirable destination at the moment and won’t be until we have some level of sustained success.

I think they will try again next year with Arenado & Rendon (if they make it), but those guys will be entering age 29 season (so less attractice to us) and who knows they just may have more suitors than the current whales do. If you told me a year ago there would only be three teams in the mix for Machado & Harper I would have said you were crazy. The reality is none of the traditional big spenders are involved for these guys and plan to do whatever it takes land one of them. This honestly may be the best opportunity we have to land a whale and that’s the primary reason I’ve been so optimistic. If we’re prepared to spend, there is zero excuse not landing one of these guys.

Please don’t take this the wrong way, but this is somewhat absurd. There are only so many stars that hit free agency in their prime. If you’re going place a requirement that they be likable, a leader, etc., you’ve just eliminated half of the options that will be available this offseason. We aren’t the Yankees or Dodgers who can be a little more picky, we have to sign whichever whale we can get. Now don’t get me wrong, I would prefer Harper because of the intangibles he provides, but we can not afford to pass on Machado while we wait for Bryce. Even above star power, we need impact talent more than anything.

100% agree. And I think a key thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is there are two whales on the market. If the Sox are prepared to do some crazy shit, there is zero excuse for not landing one of these guys. The odds of both of them turning down substantial amounts of money is probably near zero.

This isn’t the NFL, we don’t need Machado to be a leader, we just need him to keep putting up 6 win seasons. The value of having a star contributor like Manny would be absolutely huge for the rebuild. You only have so many roster spots and the marginal benefit of a high win player is significant. Unfortunately, guys like this typically don’t hit free agency at 26 and teams like us should be doing everything in our power to land these type of players when the opportunities present themselves. It sounds like you just don’t like him for personal reasons and that’s a poor way to contract a baseball team.

Then you’re suggesting a 10 year rebuild, which is not only insanity but would also destroy what little remaining interest our fanbase has in the team. And the reason for this? All because you’re scared to spend some money on a big name player. I honestly can’t comprehend this line of thinking.

If you’re trying to emulate the Astros with our front office in place and without the same analytics infrastructure we are completely fucked IMO.

The Yankees are not giving up anything decent for Alonso, especially once they have already landed Machado.

I’m guessing it won’t be that much less TBH.

I think is realistically our floor once our new TV deal goes into effect. We have zero long-term commitments, so filling the two holes you mentioned can still be done while adding a whale.

Trust me Truth, I’m in full agreement that we need to do whatever it takes to land a whale. And I do they believe they’re willing to offer a record breaking contract, I’m just concerned in the case of Machado they won’t make a Godfather type offer and will instead just assume 10/$325M is way better than 8/$280M. We’re entering unprecedented territory for the franchise so who really knows though.

What else do you supposed doing with this money?

I totally agree with you, I’m just speculating what I think our front office will do and I worry they don’t think they’ll need to outbid the Yankees by that much.

There is a big difference between $325M & $375M and I don’t think we’d go much past the former.

To me, the magic numbers for the Yankees are 8 years and a $35M AAV (which be record breaking). If he gets both of those from New York, I think we’d have to offer around 10/$375M to have a chance. I really think we need years and an AAV edge to convince him to not join the Yankees.

If the Yankees are offering 8/$280M with opt-outs, I think it would take something crazy from us or the Phillies to get him to pass up that opportunity. I think we got to hope the Yankees cap out around 8/$240M unless we’re prepared to spend some really stupid money.

I really don’t think there is that much smoke here. A bunch of wannabe New York “insiders” are jumping off of what Dan Clark reported. And even with Jim Leyritz, he didn’t just come out and post what he did looking to break news, he was responding to a question some random person asked him. This all could be real, but to me it still comes down to the validity of the Dan Clark report.

Just to mess with fathom, another New York “insider” says Machado to Yankees:

I have no clue what this means. Our TV revenue is fixed and could be worth $150M or more once our local deal is in place. You’re really over exaggerating our financial woes.

The Mets & Angels are large market teams, so I’m not sure what you’re getting at that there. Right now, we are realistically a mid market team with the upside to be a low end large market team with some star power and an extended period of success.

Why is it an either/or type thing? Adding a star via free agency allows us to overcome one of those guys not hitting their ceiling. If they all reach their potential plus we add Machado or Harper then great, but we shouldn’t make decisions today assuming all our young guys are going to work out. Also, how quickly does Robert become an impact player exactly? He may not be up here until late 2020 / early 2021 and could take a year or two before he finds his stride. Meanwhile, we burn through Moncada & Jimenez’s service while we wait. Adding a legit star or two takes some pressure off our kids needing to come out of the gate guns blazing to be competitive.