Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 03:54 PM) Erik Johnson is very much below Matt Davidson right now. Matt Davidson having a terrible season due to some mental and technical issues I can understand, but I don't know how mental and technical issues make your fastball lose that much velocity. He's not a big league pitcher until he gets his fastball back. If he can do that then he's right back to being a potential rotation contender. Erik Johnson may be below Davidson right now, but I think he has a much better chance of returning to form in the long-run. Johnson most likely had some sort of injury last year that caused him to lose his stuff. I think it's far more likely he gets healthy next year and his velocity returns than Davidson being able to make the necessary adjustments to overcome his significant contact issues.

I don't see how Victor Martinez is out of our price range. We'll have a good $40M+ to work with and Martinez at $16M/per is easily doable and would leave plenty of money to fill other needs. The question is he simply worth that price tag given his age and projected performance. If I had guess, I'd say 50% of this board would be willing to sign Martinez for 3/$48M, myself included. Tough call to make, but I think he's one of the few free agents worth spending big on, at least if the contract is limited to three years. And I'd easily prefer doing that deal than giving LaRoche 2/$24M.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 13, 2014 -> 08:49 PM) If he's as bad as he was last year and shows no improvement with his fastball next year he won't be worth a 40 man spot. Those are some big ifs to be making a year out. And let's be honest, plenty of garbage has a found a way to stick on the 40 man roster longer than their shelf life. There is little doubt IMO that Johnson will be given an entire year to rebound, former top 100 prospects aren't discarded so quickly.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 13, 2014 -> 08:36 PM) Johnson has absolutely no trade value based on his performance this season. None whatsoever. He's a DFA candidate in the eyes of every trade partner, if someone really liked him they just have to wait a few months. DFA candidate? Dude has options left. What in the world are you talking about?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 13, 2014 -> 10:58 AM) There was an additional $25 million in TV revenue. And the Sox don't pay for upgrades to USCF. And JR said in an earlier interview that the team will make money this season. Granted, we don't know what the payroll will be. It might be $120 million. It might be $85 million. It probably all depends on what they can get done with the guys they want on the team. Yup, regardless of where the 2015 number actually comes in at, it's pretty clear we can easily afford a $95M to $100M payroll next year if not more. The question really comes down to whether or not Hahn will have enough attractive opportunities to spend all this money.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 13, 2014 -> 07:53 AM) Maybe LaRoche if the Nationals have to move Zimmerman to 1B...or Zimmerman. Not easy to find a LH hitter unless it's Kendrys Morales. If we can trade for a legit impact hitter to play LF/RF, I'm ok with Morales at DH on a dirt cheap 1 year deal. Still would say he would be a plan B or more likely plan C signing, but I'd rather start the season with him at DH than Viciedo or Wilkins.

QUOTE (LDF @ Oct 13, 2014 -> 07:01 AM) that kool. no problems here. peace. now with ref to what I was hoping for the response, was to discuss the next wave of prospects and the importance of retooling the farm system. maybe get another point of view of new prospects including the int'l prospect who the sox sign, getting their names known. You have to remember that we're just seeing the first wave of Latin American signings hit stateside. It's taken a couple years to get going, but we should see regular inflows of talent coming from that channel going forward. That alone will move us up a few ticks in the system rankings, given that we had almost no presence in Latin America for a good chunk of time.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 12, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) Interesting DH possibility. But DH only. Of course, he may just be Viciedo. He's had only one good 1/2 year. We've got to improve the defense on this team, however. This may not be a popular opinion, but I think Jay Bruce solves a lot of problems for us.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 11, 2014 -> 06:52 PM) I am not an ESPN Insider anymore, but Dan Hayes tweeted that the he thinks the Sox may have 4 top 100 guys this year. Rodon, Anderson, Montas and......Hawkins maybe? He say's Montas MAY be the 4th, which means there is someone in front of him. My guess is Hawkins or Adams. IMO, Adams is a clear #7 behind Johnson, Hawkins, & Danish. He's obviously an incredibly talented prospect, but his success has only come against rookie ball competition. He will shoot up the charts next year if he does well at Kannapolis. Regardless, this is the strongest #1 through #7 the system has had in a long time.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 11, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) Almost positive it's Johnson Micah was going to be my guess as well, but it's really nice to having six guys in the top 100 discussion for once.

Four top 100 prospects, wonder who is #4 with Rodon, Anderson, & Montas. Basically has to be Hawkins, Micah Johnson, or Danish.

Caulfield, I agree that contact is very important and often undervalued by advanced metrics. I say it all the time, but context does matter and anything that minimizes the deviations in run production in relation to the team's average output will help them win more games in the long-run, and is especially valuable in October when games are generally lower scoring. Linear weights simply can't value how the distribution of run production actually impacts winning games, it only considers gross output.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 10, 2014 -> 04:14 PM) 2.8 WAR for his career with the Sox vs $12.6 million. Last I saw that $/WAR was rated about $5 million per win, so even by that, the Sox are ahead. No offense, but this is a horrible way to look at this. The fact is Viciedo has been a below average player for us over the course of his career. Just because we paid him slightly less than the open market rate for WAR doesn't negate the fact he provided us with below average production. At the end of the day, wasting precious roster spots on below average players because they technically provided you with a small amount of surplus value is always going to be a losing proposition.

Puig isn't happening, as he'd cost Quintana or the entire farm. Either way, our team won't be any better in the long-run. CarGo makes some sense. People will highlight his home-away splits, but don't most Rockies' players have this issue? Larry Walker's career OPS was 177 points higher at home, Helton's was 166 points higher. Maybe I'm wrong, but I know I've read some theories on a hangover effect, implying most of these guys over-adjust to playing 81 games at Coors. Either way, CarGo has signicant talent or at least did before he was injured. His contract reduces the talent it would cost to acquire him and if we could use him as part of a rotating DH, I think he'd make a ton of sense for us.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 05:34 PM) He is very young but I don't think we see Anderson for a while. He has really struggled defensively at SS in the minors so far. He is way behind Semien and we saw his stuggles defensively when he was promoted. Hopefully the Sox have someone to work w Semien and Anderson defensively because both look like solid hitters. I don't see Anderson spending more than one full season at AA and one at AAA. IMO, he's either ready by Opening Day 2017 or he has busted. If defense is a concern, it's possible he's moved to CF or 2B prior to then, but they won't keep him in the minors much longer for defense alone.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 03:55 PM) I would give Adam an extension. Another player I would that I might get heat for is Alexei Ramirez. I'd give him a 2 year extension because I really feel that he's a player that if we want to contend, we need to have. Plus, I love Alexei. I would hear offers about him though, and if one blew me away, then I would do it if I were Hahn. But that's my 2 cents. The Sox have a 5 year board and my guess is it goes like this for SS: 2015: Alexei (under contract) 2016: Alexei (option year) 2017: Tim Anderson 2018: Tim Anderson 2019: Tim Anderson Honestly, I think 2016 is possible for Anderson if he has big 2015. So basically what I'm saying is extending Alexei doesn't make sense even when ignoring his age.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 04:13 AM) What if the Sox FO feels Rodon can slide into Q's spot and the team not miss a beat? That's how we could get a superstar hitter and still contend. Rodon could be that good in their eyes. We don't have quality #3 & #4 starters, so we're not contending without both Quintana & Rodon.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 6, 2014 -> 07:12 PM) Except we said this about Paulino and our veteran pen guys eight months ago. No way on masterson unless we can control him going into 2016 if he pitches at his previous level again. If he pitches at his previous level and then leaves, we most likely are getting a compensation pick as a result.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 6, 2014 -> 07:02 AM) That's pretty much EXACTLY what I suggested in my post, except adding Viciedo, lol. Now we're just arguing semantics. You said Chris Beck, one or two fliers, & Tank for good measure. Beck isn't a top 10 prospect, and I wouldn't consider the fliers to be top 15 guys when Beck barely makes the cut. When I say three guys in the 6 to 15 range I'm talking Montas or Danish as the headliner, with two other guys like Sanchez & Ravelo (or even Beck) included. That's a significantly better package than what you proposed.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) You are right about Soria. Looks like he's burned out the arm. He's no good anymore. I think his arm has lost its magic.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 10:56 AM) I like the metric, although I am a huge proponent of sabremetrics, I think that's it's something that you should use to get an idea of a player's value on the field rather than taking it fave value. Defensive metrics are still a work in progress. However I am not surprised by this, the Sox are horrible defensively and that is a area that needs to be improved this off season. I still stick to my idea about moving Garcia to 1B and Abreu to DH. Garcia leaves much to be desired on the field and I think he could be a plus defender at 1B. What makes you think Garcia would be a plus defender at 1B?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 02:29 AM) What do you think it would take to get a guy like Hayward? A down season and one year remaining til free agency should make Atlanta's expectations reasonable. Of course I would only do it if I were confident in getting Hayward extended. Hayward would bring great defense to RF and move Avi to LF where he's better suited anyway. I think he'll be too expensive, as his "down" year was still incredibly valuable due to his defense (if you believe those metrics). I'd much rather target Jay Bruce, because his price will definitely be down and he offers three years of team control vs. one. Now, if Heyward does reach free agency next offseason, he's one of the few free agents I'd spend a boatload of money on.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 06:24 PM) A question about Viciedo's contract: How did he end up with the same salary in 2013 and 2014? Doesn't that virtually never happen in arbitration? Even if a player absolutely sucks, they generally get some kind of raise if they're actually put in the lineup to play the games. If I remember correctly, he was in the last year of his major league deal in 2013. However, this past year he was not yet arbitration eligible, which means we could pay him whatever we want as long as we didn't reduce his salary by more than 20%.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 08:24 PM) I feel like if they can solve one of these major issues through trade they can pull of the rest in a sensible way (and don't have to lose their 1st round pick if they sign someone), but the key step is they need a major trade to fill 1+ of these holes. Call me confused. First, our 1st round pick is protected. Second, how is filling a major need by trade going to be more sensible than losing a 2nd round draft pick? We're talking about giving up partially developed prospects or even major league players vs. an unknown commodity years away from contributing. Unless of course you're talking about taking on a big contract that doesn't require much of a return. I agree that filling all our needs in free agency is unrealistic, but all else being equal, I'd much rather use our cash to fill needs than our limited minor league talent.

I think some people on this board are really over-valuing draft picks. 1st rounders are obviously important, but losing 2nd & 3rd round picks should never sway you from adding an impact player, at least if you think you're team is close to being competitive. And I get you also lose their bonus allotment, but when you're trying to add outside talent and the trade-off is losing a pick/bonus or trading away partially developed prospects, I'm going to sacrifice the unknown commodity first every single time.