Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 05:18 PM) He did. I don't understand this apparent zeal of the Sox to trade him. He gave us the best leadoff work in a decade. Because his value is at an all-time high, he seems injury prone, and some have questioned his ability to play CF. I get he was very solid as our leadoff hitter last year, but I think there's a case for moving him now while his value is still high. Also, OF is our deepest position in terms of depth in the minors and we have a couple guys who will be knocking on the door in the next season or two. Having said all this, I'm not necessarily advocating trading him. I just think you have to gauge his value, and if even a single GM thinks he's close to an elite leadoff hitter and is willing to pay a premium for him, you move him in a heartbeat and worry about your own leadoff guy later.

These De Aza & Viciedo rumors are both from a Tribune article last night. It was interesting that the article said Hahn was looking for prospects from Seattle for Viciedo. I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in Tribune published rumors, but they do support the notion that Hahn is willing to move quite a few players, including any of our outfielders, to improve the team one way or another. As for Upton, he's a great player but I'd be worried about the cost. If they're asking for Andrus plus from Texas, I don't want to know what it would cost us. Given the overall lack of talent in our organization, I'd rather risk big money on Hamilton then trade four or five good pieces for an area of organizational strength.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 01:42 PM) I don't understand what you mean when you talk about surplus value leading to wins right now. Surplus value is the difference between what a player's talent would cost on the open market and what they are actually being paid. It can be used to determine what a player who isn't a free agent might be worth in a trade. I was referring to your point about Floyd not having as much surplus value as a top 100 prospect. However, I re-read your original post and agree we are in agreement.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 11:32 AM) Unfortunately, only one year of Floyd at $9.5M doesn't offer much surplus value. The estimate surplus value of a top 100 prospect is well over $10M, and Floyd is nowhere near that. Maybe the scarcity and high price of free agents bumps it up some, but the chances are low Floyd himself could bring back an exciting prospect. It saddens me as co-member of the Gavin fan club with wite. The problem with your logic is when a team is trying to compete, then actual production is going to be more important than surplus value. Why do teams pay big money for free agents who will most likely provide less value than their cost? Because they have a given need and future/potential surplus value doesn't lead to wins right now. Teams that want to compete next year and need pitching will run into a problem at some point. The market will continue to shrink and guys like Floyd be in greater demand. These teams will probably have the choice of going with a young guy that has a high potential of sucking, signin a crappy free agent of the scrap heap, or can trade for a veteran with a good chance of pitching 180+ innings with a solid ERA. I understand we won't get a ton for Floyd, but as usual with starting pitching, it's a supply and demand issue and we should be able to get something of value for him at some point.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 6, 2012 -> 08:47 PM) Rumor has it the Mariners may be front-runners for Hamilton and are offering 3/75. If he signs for 3 or 4 years, I'm much more interested, even at $25m per year. QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 6, 2012 -> 09:21 PM) 4 yrs/100 mil. Let's do it. This is what I'm talking about. 3 years/$75 million seems like a no-brainer to me and even 4 year/$100 million may be worth the risk. I would never consider going past 4 years with him, but his elite left-handed bat would change the entire dynamic of our offense. Plus you wouldn't have to give up any talent, although we'd obviously have to clear some salary.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 6, 2012 -> 05:43 PM) Assuming $25 million for Hamilton, that commits roughly $81 million to the following players for both the 2013 and 2014 season: Hamilton ($25 mill) Danks ($14.25 mill) Dunn ($15 mill) Peavy ($14.25 mill) Rios ($12/$12.5 mill) That doesn't include extending Sale nor deals for 2013 nor any smaller deals already signed for 2014 nor any other additions the team may need nor arbitration eligible players. If Hamilton is only going to get three or four years I'd definitely consider it. The new TV deal money is going to lead to larger payrolls across the game and $25 million for an elite hitter like Hamilton won't seem quite as crazy in the near future IMO. Look what average OFs are getting in free agency this year, things will only get worse in a year or two.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:48 PM) He's a nice little player...I like that Hahn can see that. This is a good sign for Hahn's first real move. Would have preferred 2 years, but oh well. Agree 100% and it shows that Hahn is serious about winning this year and won't be p****-footing major needs like Kenny occasionally did.

QUOTE (Sockin @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:46 PM) 3 yrs, about 12 mil. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/276396840881106944 Tremendous deal given the current market for 3B. Obviously no one wants to go with 3 years with Keppinger, but it's really not a big deal at $4/million per. Worst case scenario, the guy is an overpriced utility player in a year or two. I do love that he's a high contact, low strikeout hitter. He can either bat 2nd or lower in the lineup to break up some of the low contact, high strikeout guys.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:02 AM) Sanchez's optimal value is as a SS, he should not be moved to another position. The problem is that Sanchez is not really a SS. Based on all the scouting reports I've read, his defensive projects to be very good at 2B, but passable at best at SS. If the guy was a legit SS propsect, he'd be playing there almost everyday, but I can tell you from following him closely that isn't the case. The guy is a true 2B, both offensively and defensively.

Does anyone know what the Padres plan on doing with Jedd Gyorko? My Cubs fan friend said there were rumors of the Cubs going after him, offering Darwin Barney plus. If there is any truth to this rumor, I hope the Sox are out there offering Beckham & Rienzo. I know Gyorko is super unlikely, but I hope Hahn is looking at some other 3B prospects that are blocked at the major league level.

Didn't see it posted elsewhere, but Yunel Escobar traded to the Rays for their #9 prospect. There goes another 3B option for the Sox.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 05:47 AM) The deal kicks in 2014. The Sox always say they are at their payroll limit. Sometimes it means Darrin Erstad leads off and plays CF. sometimes it means they are trading for Jake Peavy and claiming Alex Rios. Sometimes it means we get to watch Andy Gonzalez try to play baseball, sometimes it means signing Adam Dunn and bring back Paulie and AJ. Oh ok, I didn't realize it didn't kick in until 2014. Sure seems like teams are already spending this money, given some of the contracts we're seeing this winter. But you're right, the Sox always say they are up against the wall and oftentimes they magically find some money at the last second. There's nothing wrong with this approach, as telling other GMs your exact figure payroll would be plain stupid. I do think we have some money to play with, especially if the pricing changes are expected to bring in more profits.

Question, if there is a new TV deal that's giving all these teams millions of dollars to play with this winter, how come our payroll is going to remain flat according to rumors? I think we have more flexibility than has been reported.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 10:46 PM) I assume the Sox aren't involved, but RA Dickey would be a great addition to the team. His signing would make me go insane with joy. And why the hell didn't we sign Soria??? A cheap 4 mill a year and just what we need. What's going on ? Another $4 million/year reliever? We got bigger fish to fry Greg.

One thing I'd like to point out is that we don't have a long-term 3B option in the system. So if we go with a guy like Hanahan, we basically get below average production at 3B for a year and then face the same problem heading into 2014. And let's be honest, the 3B position isn't going to be overflowing with talent in a year and it's going to take us at least several seasons to develop an in-house candidate. Therefore, if we can't find a short-term solution in free agency, then overpaying for a long-term solution on the trade market may be the best route to go. Obviously that's easier said then done, but 3B is by far our biggest organizational need IMO and I'd be willing to pay a premium for a guy that can fill it for the next 3 - 4 years.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 07:26 PM) The Sox were still doing OK with a worthless Morel and then Hudson in 2011. Hannahan/Morel would be depressing, without a doubt but still an upgrade over the first half of 2011, We would have been a much better team with a legit 3B during the 1st half. Who knows how many games that cost us and if things would have turned out differently. I'm a very optimistic fan and I honestly feel like this team will have a real shot next year with a few tweaks, but if we go into 2013 with another black-hole at 3B then I'll lose most of my hope. We don't need an impact player there, just league average production and Brent Morel has shown no signs of being even close to level of player.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 07:07 PM) I always laugh when people use things like "unacceptable". Like they could enforce a consequence for the teams actions... I can't force s***, but I will stop going to 30+ games a year if Brent Morel is our 3B next year. Not sure what wrong with my statement, but please keep post padding.

I'd be fine with a Keppinger or Chavez type, but to settle for Jack Hannahan right now is crazy to me. I'd rather just wait and see if someone becomes available later in the offseason with Sanchez or Beckham being a plan D.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 05:45 PM) @DKnobler How weak and overpriced is 3B mkt? Frustrated White Sox have even looked for guys they could convert to 3B There has to be someone out there that would be better than Jack Hannahan at 3B. Hopefully this tweet is true and Hahn is trying to get creative, because settling for crap this early in the off-season is completely unacceptable IMO.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 05:42 PM) That scraping noise you hear is us at the bottom of the barrel. But seriously, Hannahan is nothing more than a backup on any team. He's not even a platoon player, he just sucks. I don't even want him for the bench. If Brent Morel and/or Jack Hannahan are our 3B next year, then we won't be competing for s*** and I'll start having some concerns about Hahn's chances of becoming a good GM.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 05:29 PM) 3 years, $39 million. Awful deal IMO. I love that Cherington cleared all that salary in the Dodgers mega-deal and then spends a big chunk of it on two average free agents. What a waste of f***ing money, but I guess that's what happens when you try to rebuild in free agency.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 08:15 PM) If he said that he wanted AJ to come back and start you'd be up in arms as well. Kid wants to play, I love it. And we all know AJ feels the exact same way and would admit so as well. They are both super competitive and Flowers is just being honest. I see nothing wrong with the comment.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:07 AM) I think a distribution of runs scored in games would be more interesting. From a purely feeling basis, I'll bet a team like this would have many higher individual runs scored in games, but I think they would also be shutout much more often. I'll be their deviation in runs scored would be huge. There might not be a difference in total runs over a season, but an uneven distribution could costs W's. Great post, been saying this to friends for years. This is why batting average and contact are underrated. They lead to more consistent run scoring, which over the course of a season are more valuable than just the sum of the individual runs.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 03:17 PM) If the White Sox are confident Flowers would put up a .791 OPS they would not even consider bringing AJ back. Maybe they are. It has been very quiet on the AJ front. I do think Flowers defensive reputation here will take a little hit if he plays everyday. When he is a little more banged up, and a little more drained from playing, blocking balls in the dirt is going to be a bit more difficult. First let me say that I find that Bill James projection to be very aggressive. I seriously doubt that Hahn expects a .790 OPS out of him next year either, but I really do think that Hahn wants Flowers as his starting catcher. This is an easy spot for Hahn to upgrade the lineup's OBP while saving money for other needs. Your points about Flowers' defense are fair enough. We'll have to see how he handles a full season workload. I think it would be foolish to expect to him to play as many games as AJ typically has, so getting a catcher that can hit right-handed pitching well seems critical to me if Flowers end up as our starter.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 01:47 PM) Well I can't see him being available for a million in the first place. I think he's going to get at least $4 million or so. To your point, however, while I was very optimistic about our chances last year, this year, I am quite pessimistic. I think we are going to really struggle this season, so I'm not concerned so much about durability as much as I am sorting out who is going to be a long-term option and in what roles. IMO, having Joe Saunders or any one of those other veterans isn't going to provide anything that makes a difference one way or the other, so I'd rather save the cash and give the innings to someone for development purposes. Why do you think we're going to struggle next year? Just curious.