Chicago White Sox

You’re talking about certainty…the only thing certain about Ortiz is his glove (hence him having an all glove floor). There are no guarantees with his bat and I simply don’t buy him having this alleged elite bat speed when no other source has ever claimed this (to my knowledge at least). BA’s latest report calls his power “fringy” while also highlighting his strength gains and stronger offensive production last year. That doesn’t mean Ortiz won’t be a solid offensive player, but I’m certainly not going to bank on it happening. And as for the other players in question, I’ve read the scouting reports from BA, BP, MLB, Fangraphs, and Tony over at OH (who does a great job). I’ve looked at their numbers extensively. I really like Beavers as a prospect and would love to have him in a Cease deal, but he’s got tremendous bust potential like most prospects of his stature. And Povich is literally just a dude. I don’t necessarily prescribe to the TINSTAAPP theory, but for me to buy into a pitching prospect I either need to see elite stuff or strong results and he doesn’t check either box. Again, he’s a perfectly fine prospect, but 45 FV pitching prospects aren’t worth all that much. Also, not sure what 17 year old prospects you think we’re comparing these guys to either. We all understand the basic concept that results in the upper minors correlates better with major league success.

You’re naming arms that we have no reason to believe are available. That’s not to say there aren’t other options out there than Cease, but I see your fans at the Hangout clinging to hope of a Framber trade and that isn’t likely happening. You guys seem to think you have the leverage here because you have the best farm system, but we aren’t talking about a Robert trade where only one or two teams have the prospect currency to make a deal happen without including major league players. Many teams can afford Cease. The Sox simply need to come away with one 55 FV or higher prospect to headline the trade. The rest of the pieces can be solved in a variety of ways with trade-odds between quantity and quality. And honestly, as our most astute prospect followers here have called out (@bmags for example), oftentimes the best secondary pieces aren’t the back end top 100 guys that people are aware of but the up & coming prospects with some helium behind them. Again, lots of way to get a deal done and I’m confident there are many better centerpieces than old man Ortiz.

I’m sorry, but Beavers & Povich are far from sure things. Ortiz is a high floor prospect, but a 26 year old all glove SS doesn’t really move the needle for us. It’s really not the package you guys think it is.

We mean competition for a playoff spot. And that package is not way better than what the Yankees can offer.

How are they not competition?

The Yankees being heavily involved is great news. Honestly, if I were an Orioles fan I’d be a sweating a little. I know people think they are guaranteed a playoff spot because they won 101 games last year, but a rejuvenated Yankees could put that at risk. Last year there were only seven AL teams with positive run differentials, but the lowest of those was at +75 vs. the Orioles’ +129. All of them but the Mariners untimely made the playoffs. Obviously the Yankees would need to make some major strides to get back in the thick of things but Soto, a couple more big additions like Cease, and some better health could quickly do that for them. And with four AL East teams actually competing for playoff spots and only two or three realistically up for grabs, it’s very possible the Orioles could be the odd man out if they don’t make any major additions and/or experience any injury bad luck or regression.

Does he have additional control? Fangraphs shows him being a free agent after the season, but perhaps that is wrong. If he does, then I’d like this move a tiny bit more.

Look, I’m not a pitching expert by any means, but I see a guy who benefited greatly from pitching in Seattle and who wouldn’t have been as successful elsewhere. I see a guy who has always had below average stuff get his ass handed to him last year as his stuff regressed further. I see a guy who in his only good major league season put up a BB that has never been replicated. If you want to be an optimist, I’d just point to Bannister and highlight the fact that he likely picked this dude amongst all the possible dumpster dives. And it’s very possible he’s more useful than I’m anticipating. That being said, even if he reaches a best case projection, I just don’t see us getting much for him in a flip trade because he’s still just a BOR innings eater.

I have an irrational hate for pitchers that don’t K people. It started with Keuchel and has manifested from there. But in all seriousness, Flexin benefited a ton from pitching in Seattle. Check his home / run splits and his projected HR totals at other parks if you don’t believe me. I just don’t see the potential with him.

True, but at least Montgomery, Nastrini, and a few other prospects will be up by June or so. Like you couldn’t pay me money to watch Chris Flexin & Tim Hill get their asses handed to them by the fucking Royals and then have to listen to Grifol defend these scrubs in the post-game.

I highly doubt it given our TV contract expires after this season. He’ll have to -assure potential partners that he plans to make some big commitments if he wants any chance at a good deal. Not suggesting he will go hog wild by any means, but the payroll slashing this year is 100% recovering for the losses the team endured last year.

What do we gain if Chris Flexen or Tim Hill “work out”? We will get nothing of value from flipping them and they offer no long-term potential. These dudes are literally just placeholders abiding time until some actual prospects arrive and hopefully take their spots. April & May is going to be absolutely brutal.

Good thing Jerry hired Getz or else we would have had to wait a year before we got to enjoy these awesome signings.

Unfortunately the sticky substance ban took a massive toll on him and MOR starter is his ceiling now.

To be fair, Frobby & Sports Guy both are aligned to a Kjerstad / Cowser + Ortiz framework. They just feel like the O’s don’t need to go any higher than that.

Average increase for a SP going into year 3 with the same level of production is 42%. I think ~$12M in 2025 is fair for a guy coming off a 4 win player. I guess if he were to stretch to a 6 win season he could push upwards of $18M, but don’t think we’re pricing him like that in our proposals.

What’s Grayson’s durability like out of curiosity? Is he a safe to put up +160 innings or is there injury risk there?

What’s the average Arb 3 raise? Going from $8M to $12M is a 50% increase. At most it’s probably a $1M or $2M light.

RH hitter with little to no defensive utility. The margin for error on a prospect like that is minimal. Him being the second piece of a Cease would be a huge mistake IMO.

So we have a deal?!

Norby ain’t that dude. Povich is a good not great pitching prospect and we have a lot of those. Ortiz will be 26 years old next year. Those are players that can be beat.

I hear Kjerstad is great in the clubhouse and grew up a Royals fan, so maybe he checks enough boxes despite being a bat-oriented prospect?

One thing I think being overlooked here is that the Orioles have other guys that could play in the OF. Personally, I’d try Mayo in RF before settling with him as a 1B. He can essentially replace Santander after the 2024 season. I’d also move Horvath to the OF and have him potentially be the fallback option there come 2026. That leaves Cowser for LF and Bradfield for CF once Hayes & Mullins are gone. Fabian profiles as a solid 4th OF potentially. They also have a few other younger OF prospects behind those guys in the event someone were to bust, but honestly I’d feel petty good about that group resulting in a strong OF unit. That theoretical OF arrangement allows them to use two potential savages in Kjerstad & Beavers in a Cease trade, which addresses two major areas of need for us. Obviously we would need another good piece, but I like that potential construct better focusing on their good not great pitching or infield prospects.

I used the trade simulator and came up with a Cease deal that the tool says is fair for both us and the Orioles. I’ll fax this over to Elias & Getz and hopefully we can put an end to this stalemate. Always great to find a deal that equally benefits both sides!