Chicago White Sox

The reality is at some point the Cease sweepstakes will turn into a blind bidding process and you will the lose this theoretical leverage to “pay the least amount possible” since you won’t know how much that will be. Oftentimes, it becomes a game of chicken and in this particular case it will come down to who is willing to bet the most on Cease being closer to his 2022 form. As for receiving 3 or 4 pieces, I’m not sure that matters all that much outside of the optics. For Getz, he probably will want a third piece at minimum to help diversify some of the risk and have a better chance of at least hitting on one guy, but at the end of the day it’s all about total value of the package. But for the most part, I don’t think Elias will have a problem throwing in some lottery tickets outside of your top 30 to get a deal done.

To be fair, it look old man Angelos having a stroke and his trust fund kid to come in and hire a modern leader. Unfortunately for us, Jerry’s trust fund kid would stick with Getz and simply buy the analytics staff second monitors.

I think theoretically this is simply about getting some of the young pitchers ready for 2025 & beyond. Have the vesting details been shared yet?

Ok, so it sounds like Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Povich should be an easy “yes” for you guys given the endless amount of talent you now have. Also, don’t forget about the three first round picks you get in next year’s draft ?

Sorry if my response came off aggressive, but that analysis is very manipulative between the Covid reduced payroll in 2020 and the massive difference in the time value of money between now and the early 2000’s.

As much as it pains me to say it, it makes sense though. Without being able to actually tank, trading for low level minor leaguers is counterproductive to an extent. They need to time an influx of prospects along with multiple free agent signings to turn this around quickly and that seems to be their plan starting as soon as next off-season. This year is unfortunately about letting the KW / Hahn rot gradually work its way out of the organization.

For your second question, I’d say that take a payroll figure from the early 2000’s and basically double it.

Sure, if you ignore it was a partial season and players were only paid a prorated salary (~37% for most players).

What post are you referring to?

What it sounds like to me based on the various leaks, Hahn asked for a Holliday led package until it was too late and may have pivoted to the proposal that you highlighted. Not sure if that jives with what you have heard, but Orioles fans seem to be under a similar impression.

I did what now?

What kind of return did Giolito bring?

I believe Balta is some sort of rock scientist, so not sure he’s been in a results based working environment when results have gone soft. Regardless of the profession, it’s incredibly common for people to lose motivation / focus when it does happen.

It’s wild that a board of Orioles fan can understand how pitching last season in a s%*# environment could impact Dylan’s result whereas as a Sox fan who should have witnessed this s%*#-show firsthand finds it incomprehensible.

And not any 100 loss team…one whose clubhouse was a complete disaster thanks its spineless manager.

And so is using the “guy who threw the highest rated pitch in Statcast history one year later has suddenly lost the ability to throw that pitch forever despite little change in spin rate” to help support your thesis that he is badly broken.

I mean, I’m not sure it’s fair to assume that Cease would have pitched exactly the same behind their defense and with their pitching coach.

Yes, I assume he will bounce back some, but have never said he will return to 2022 form. However, that’s being factored into the prices we have discussed over the past month. If this was 2022 Cease we were selling, the headliner discussions wouldn’t be centered on Coswer & Kjerstad but would start with Basallo or Mayo at minimum.

2 1/3 years of Juan Soto at $58M in cost vs. 4 years of Robert at $67.5M in cost. Assume the Padres thought they were getting a 6 win player. At $9M per win, we’re talking about $68M in surplus value. Robert at say a 4.5 win projection is worth ~$95M in surplus value. That’s a massive difference in value. And in terms of the return, the Nationals got per BA the 11th overall prospect, the 25th overall prospect, the 62nd overall prospect, and a former top overall pitching prospect (10th on BA’s 2021 list). Gore may have lost some value at this point, but we’re still talking four legit top 100 talents including two top 25 guys. For simplicity purposes, I’m allocating Susana to the Bell part of the trade. My hypothetical proposal is more than what the Nationals got, but the main difference in value would be Holliday over Abrams. Otherwise, most of the pieces more or less stack up with Gore arguably more valuable than the 4th piece I’m proposing.

Roll Tide doesn’t?

You continue to assume every one of your prospects is going to pan out. Even 70 FV & 65 FV prospects bust and many of them underperform. Assuming a kid will be a 6 WAR player is absolutely wild. Don’t get me wrong, Holliday is stud prospect but the key word there is prospect. There are no guarantees. And sure, Robert hasn’t been a beacon of health, but we just saw a small built Japanese pitcher with quite a bit of mileage on his arm and who hasn’t thrown a single pitch in the majors sign the largest pitcher contract in baseball history. Luis Robert is an absolutely insane athlete coming off a 5 win season in the most broken org in baseball and with little protection. Given he’s due $67.5M at max over the next four years (with two options to boot), he is a top five asset in all of baseball and there really isn’t an argument here like with Cease. You may feel he has durability concerns, but I can assure you most GMs would give up their first born to get their hands on him despite his past track record of health.

I doubt any team outside of you guys could. Realistically, I’d need Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, & Beavers / Bradfield as the starting point with a couple of lower-tier prospects also thrown into the mix. I know you’ll say that’s way too much, but that’s legit what Robert is worth.

Someone will pony up eventually IMO

I think it’s possible, but it would almost have to come down to Bannister being a big fan D.L. Hall and the Orioles being willing to give him up. I don’t think Getz comes out of a Cease trade without an immediate replacement.

No one is actually suggesting he is the centerpiece amongst Sox fans. I have gotten in a lot of debates over at Orioles Hangout because some of their fans (not the majority though) feel he could be the centerpiece. Personally, I think Orioles fans greatly overrate Ortiz’s value while many Sox fans undervalue it. I personally view Ortiz as a low-end top 100 type prospect who I think has a shot of being a steady 2.0 to 2.5 win player with a league average bat but who could also not hit enough where you’re almost immediately looking for an upgrade. I also worry about his age and that goes into my discounted value for him.